Consensus is almost crystal clear: No Country for pic, director, Bardem and adapted screenplay (the Gurus predict a whopping 8 wins for the film); Day-Lewis and Christie for lead acting; Diablo for original screenplay. A few strays here and there (particularly in best actress), but other than that, 7 of the top 8 categories seem like easy money.
Supporting actress, however, is one of the most nail-biting races in many, many years. Support for Ruby Dee, Tilda Swinton, Cate Blanchett and Amy Ryan can be found almost evenly (while Lou Lumenick didnt even bother predicting it). When was the last true four-way acting race? I can’t think of one, in all honesty.