Summer Movie Box Office Predictions

Summer Movie Box Office Predictions

I figured since I’ve neglected the “box office” category for months now and every box office nerd around is eagerly awaiting Iron Man‘s summer kick off opening night numbers (including myself), I’d offer my top 20 moneymakers of the summer predictions.

I’m guessing it will be somewhat similar to last summer, where 5 films dominated with $290 million+ and another 10 or so did very good business as well. Only I’d guess it will be a little less top heavy this time around, with one massive #1 (Indiana Jones), and another 5 $250-300 million types (Wall-E, Hancock, Dark Knight, Iron Man, Narnia). But that’s pretty easy to guess. The harder guesswork is in the disappointments. I’d wager The Incredible Hulk, Wanted, The Love Guru, The Mummy 3 and Speed Racer will all fall below expectations, while X-Files and Hellboy 2 won’t do much better than their middle-ground hit successors.

The last few summers have taught two important points. Yes, there will be blockbusters. But there will also be comedies and woman-oriented films that will make some notable change as well. Though I already suggested The Love Guru will fail (it looks horrible, and Mike Myers is not the draw he once was, I think), but I’d imagine Step Brothers, Tropic Thunder, Pineapple Express, You Don’t Mess With The Zohan and Get Smart will all do decent business. Thunder looks like the standout, but Brothers‘ trailer seems to suggest it brings the funny way more than Semi-Pro did, and might mark yet another Ferrell comeback. The other three might all fall slightly below expectations, but all in the $100 million+ range. Sandler’s films almost always hit the $100, even though its toward the bottom of that range more and more. Pineapple is not as accessible as Knocked Up or Superbad, and is the shakiest of them all, but it the presence of Rogen and a damn good trailer should help. And since the ladies (and gays) have so little to-themselves options (please note how very, very few summer movies have a female at top billing), I can’t imagine Sex and the City doing poorly, even if it blows. Mamma Mia should see a near-Hairspray success too, but that is very much based on whether or not its good or not. Sleepers usually need good reviews.

Anyway, here’s my top 20:

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1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Opening: $127 million Final: $355 million

2. Wall-E
Opening: $74 million Final: $298 million

3.The Dark Knight
Opening: $101 million Final: $294 million

4. Iron Man
Opening: $92 million Final: $275 million

5. Hancock
Opening: $75 million Final: $249 million

6. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Opening: $70 million Final: $220 million

7. Kung Fu Panda
Opening $55 million Final: $194 million

8. Tropic Thunder
Opening: $50 million Final: $164 million

9. Sex and the City: The Movie
Opening: $46 million Final: $149 million

10. Step Brothers
Opening: $39 million Final: $137 million

11. Get Smart
Opening: $42 million Final: $133 million

12. The Mummy 3
Opening: $40 million Final: $126 million

13. The Incredible Hulk
Opening: $45 million Final: $122 million

14. Mamma Mia!
Opening: $30 million Final: $115 million

15. Pineapple Express
Opening: $31 million Final: $109 million

16. You Don’t Mess With The Zohan
Opening: $33 millon Final: $106 million

17. Wanted
Opening: $42 million Final: $105 million

18. The Happening
Opening: $38 million Final: $96 million

19. The X-Files 2
Opening: $35 million Final: $92 million

20. Speed Racer
Opening: $34 million Final: $88 million

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