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Post-TIFF Oscar Predictions

Post-TIFF Oscar Predictions

Not that TIFF really gave us to much to work with. And though it certainly warrants some, I’m saving any major commentary for indieWIRE‘s kick off of awards season coverage – due to happen in the next week or so on the main site.

But briefly, I must note how unusually hard it is to negotiate the long list of unknown entities: The Reader, The Sololist, The Road, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Australia, Brothers, Defiance, Body of Lies, Gran Torino, Milk, Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road, Doubt. Last year there were really only three big question marks – There Will Be Blood, Sweeney Todd and Charlie Wilson’s War – at this point. My predictions make it clear which ones I think have the most potential, which ones will figure in a bit, and which ones will totally crash and burn. But it’s 90% speculative. All I kinda sorta know from TIFF is that Rachel Getting Married, Slumdog Millionaire, The Wrestler, I Loved You So Long and Che are the most likely Toronto alums to make the cut, but more than one or two TIFF selections making the Best Picture shortlist is very unlikely. I also still strong stand by my disbelief that any major nods could come Changeling‘s way after I saw it at Cannes.

Anyway, see for yourself where I think things are headed, after the jump. I avoided predicting anything beyond the five nominees, despite a geeky want to go all “dark horse” and “sixth choice”.

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Matteo Garrone, Gomorra
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

BEST ACTOR
Benicio Del Toro, Che
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Rosemarie Dewitt, Rachel Getting Married
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Elsa Zylberstein, I’ve Loved You So Long

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Happy-Go-Lucky
I’ve Loved You So Long
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Christina Barcelona

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Gomorra
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E
Waltz With Bazhir

BEST EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Revolutionary Road
The Road

BEST ART DIRECTION
Australia
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
The Road

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Australia
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance
Doubt
WALL-E

BEST SOUND MIXING
Body of Lies
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

BEST SOUND EDITING
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
WALL-E

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
WALL-E

BEST MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder

**I didn’t bother with FOREIGN, DOC or SONG since their nomination process is such a shit show. But I do feel foreign films might factor more into the nominees than I’m predicting.

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