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Updated Oscar Predictions

Updated Oscar Predictions

My first four days of this particular New York trip hasn’t exactly been blog productive. Though only a partial excuse (the other part involves mostly hangovers), I’ve been productive elsewhere.. catching up on some screenings (Australia and Revolutionary Road). I also did another back and forth re: awards season with Eugene, which brings up my thoughts on Australia. Later this week we’ll post another that discusses Revolutionary Road, as well as Doubt and The Reader, which I’m seeing tomorrow. Until then, I’m offering yet another batch of Oscar predictions.

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That great collage of posters (care of Awards Daily) suggests that it has come down to 12 in terms of the best picture race. I’d argue its probably more like 8. Rachel Getting Married and Doubt seem solely acting race and screenplay race bound, Australia will be lucky if it gets an art direction nod, and Wall-E, well, I can only dream…

Last time around, I took Ben Button off my best picture predictions, which I’m taking back. I still don’t think it’ll win (and this is based entirely on a few opinions I highly respect), and would not call it a LOCK to be nominated, but its looking more and more likely that even with its detractors, its gonna play huge come Oscar nomination morning, and perhaps Oscar night as well.

After two years of thinking outside the box, at least relatively, Oscar might get a bit more conventional this year, honoring bigger films and bigger stars, pissing off a bunch of bloggers and critics while doing so.

I haven’t seen Ben Button, it sits with Gran Torino as my last remaining Oscar film to-dos (that is, after tomorrow), so maybe it won’t be among the angered. I might tinker with these once I’ve seen The Reader in particular. But here’s where I think things are at, after the jump.

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Very Possible: The Wrestler, Frost/Nixon, The Reader
Less Possible: Doubt, Gran Torino
Dark Horses: Wall-E
Winner?: Slumdog.

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Very Possible: Sam Mendes, Ron Howard
Less Possible: Clint Eastwood, Matteo Garrone, Stephen Daldry
Dark Horses: Steve McQueen
Winner?: Pic/dir split with who winning? Fincher? Nolan? Van Sant? Im saying Van Sant in my least confident winner choice of the top races.

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo diCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Very Possible: Brad Pitt, Clint Eastwod
Less Possible: Dustin Hoffman
Dark Horse: Michael Fassbender
Winner?: Rourke, diCaprio & Penn in a three-way battle, with diCaprio surprising in the end?

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Very Possible: Cate Blanchett (I was very tempted to take out Hathaway or, Hawkins for her)
Less Possible: Angelina Jolie, Melissa Leo
Dark Horse: Michelle Williams
Winner? Winslet vs. Streep? Winslet wins?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Very Possible: Dev Patel, Ralph Fiennes
Less Possible: Bill Irwin, Emile Hirsch, Jason Flemyng
Dark Horse: Eddie Marsan
Winner?: Heath Ledger.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Rosemarie deWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Very Possible: Taraji P. Hensen, Amy Adams, Kathy Bates
Less Possible: Debra Winger, Hiam Abbas, Freida Pinto
Dark Horses: Elsa Zylberstein
Winner: Weinstein vs. Weinstein? Penelope Cruz vs. Kate Winslet? Though Cruz is the obvious frontrunner, Winslet is likely going to end up being her main competition. Imagine if somehow she wins both categories? Or worse: loses them both?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
Woody Allen, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Tom McCarthy, The Visitor
Andrew Stanton, Wall-E

Very Possible: Robert Seigel, Mike Leigh
Less Possible: The Coens
Dark Horse: Charlie Kaufman
Winner?: Lance Black.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
Justin Haythe, Revolutionary Road
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

Very Possible: Maurizio Braucci et al, David Hare (this is a very tight category)
Less Possible: Francois Begaudeau
Dark Horse: Jonathan Nolan
Winner?: Beaufoy.

And the rest, with predicted winners bolded:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E
Waltz With Bazhir

BEST FOREIGN FILM
The Class (France)
Everlasting Moments (Sweden)
Gomorrah (Italy)
The Mermaid (Russia)
Revanche (Austria)

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Encounters at the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
Strandard Operating Procedure
Trouble The Water

BEST EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Gomorrah
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ART DIRECTION
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
The Reader
Revolutionary Road

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
The Reader
Revolutionary Road

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Down to Earth” (WALL-E – Peter Gabriel)
“Jai Ho” (Slumdog Millionaire – AR Rahmen)
“The Wrestler” (The Wrestler – Bruce Springsteen)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Milk
The Reader
WALL-E

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
WALL-E

BEST SOUND EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
WALL-E

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man

BEST MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Tropic Thunder

My suggested nod and win totals for the big contenders:

Curious Case of Ben Button – 12 nods/4 wins
Revolutionary Road – 9 nods/2 wins
Milk – 7 nods/2 wins
Dark Knight – 7 nods/ 2 wins
Slumdog Millionaire – 6 nods/4 wins
WALL-E – 6 nods/ 3 wins
The Reader – 5 nods/0 wins
Doubt – 4 nods/0 wins
Rachel Getting Married – 3 nods/0 wins
Frost/Nixon – 2 nods/0 wins
Australia – 1 nod/0 wins
Gran Torino – 0 nods

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