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Summer Movie Box Office Predictions

Summer Movie Box Office Predictions

I enjoyed EW’s Summer Movie Preview in various airports over the weekend, and figured I’d have fun with numbers and guess how the season will go box office wise. Last year I wasn’t horribly off, though I wouldn’t exactly deem myself reliable based on it.

This year there’s the added momentum of 4 $100 million+ films before April ends, which I believe is a first-ever, and well above last year’s sole $100 million Winter/Spring hit, Horton Hears a Who!. However, this year we also have a relatively lame slate of Hollywood summer offerings (compared to last year, where I went into the summer enthused about what felt like more summer movies than ever). Does anyone seriously want to see Angels & Demons or Transformers 2 or Night at the Museum 2 or Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs? Probably somewhere. I just don’t. What I think is going to happen is a real lack of this outstanding $300, $400 million blockbuster, and instead 9 or 10 films that gross over $175 million (last year only 6 did). Harry Potter probably has the most potential to hit $300 million, though if Terminator is really good, it could really take off.

I also think there could be some surprises, especially given the general lack of films for women, which leads me to suspect Julie & Julia, The Proposal, The Ugly Truth, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past and My Sister’s Keeper (check out the trailer for that one… jesus: The Notebook writer/director + dying child + Cameron Diaz) all have shots at $100 million, or at least close to it.

Anyway, here goes:

1. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Opening: $103 million Final: $275 million

2. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian
Opening: 67 million Final: $234 million

3. Terminator: Salvation
Opening: $84 million Final: $224 million

4. Up!
Opening: $64 million Final: $218 million

5. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Opening: $80 million Final: $201 million

6. X-Men Origins: Wolverine
Opening: $82 million Final: $188 million

7. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
Opening: $66 million Final: $185 million

8. Angels & Demons
Opening: $79 million Final: $180 million

9. Star Trek
Opening $69 million Final: $174 million

10. The Hangover
Opening: $40 million Final: $162 million

11. Public Enemies
Opening: $49 million Final: $137 million

12. Julie & Julia
Opening: $37 million Final: $130 million

13. Land of the Lost
Opening: $46 million Final: $124 million

14. GI Joe: The Rise of Cobra
Opening: $55 million Final: $121 million

15. Bruno
Opening: $47 million Final: $109 million

16. Funny People
Opening: $39 million Final: $102 million

17. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past
Opening: $31 million Final: $100 million

18. The Proposal
Opening: $26 million Final: $96 million

19. The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3
Opening: $34 million Final: $90 million

20. My Sister’s Keeper
Opening: $24 million Final: $88 million

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