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Weekly Oscar Prediction Update: 01/12/10

Weekly Oscar Prediction Update: 01/12/10

With tomorrow’s announcement of the National Board of Review awards and the recent Gotham Awards, Spirit Award nominations, and bizarre and generally insignificant Satellite Award nominations, things are heatin’ up really quickly with regard to awards season… Soon the race will more or less be very clear, and these weekly updates of the Oscar prediction charts are gonna see a lot more movement. Though there’s definitely some this week too, from the boost “Winter’s Bone” just got from Gothams/Spirits to “True Grit” finally screening (and suggestively being a definite contender).

Below are predictions in 8 of the major categories ranked in order of personal preference of probability. I’m still struggling with a lot of categories. Eight films seem certain for best picture but then beyond them, I constantly switch up a group of films – namely Black Swan, Rabbit Hole, The Town, Winter’s Bone and Another Year – that are seeking the last two slots. Best actor similarly has two slots I’m very unsure about, and best actress remains an extremely heated battle (and one I’m thinking more and more that Natalie Portman will win).

Anyway, check out the full lists below, with the predicted nominees in bold.. and note that #1 is not necessarily the predicted winner, just the most likely to get a nomination. The previous week’s ranking is in brackets beside it.

BEST PICTURE
1. The King’s Speech (1)
2. The Social Network (2)
3. Inception (3)
4. Toy Story 3 (4)
5. The Fighter (7)
6. 127 Hours (5)
7. The Kids Are All Right (6)
8. True Grit (8)
9. Winter’s Bone (10)
10. Black Swan (12)

11. The Town (14)
12. Rabbit Hole (11)
13. Another Year (13)
14. The Way Back (9)
15. Blue Valentine (15)
16. The Ghost Writer (16)
17. How Do You Know (20)
18. Somewhere (19)
19. Secretariat (18)
20. Made in Dagenham (17)

The rest of the categories after the jump.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network (1)
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (2)
3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3)
4. Christopher Nolan, Inception (4)
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (7)

6. David O. Russell, The Fighter (8)
7. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (6)
8. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (5)
9. Ben Affleck, The Town (10)
10. Debra Granik, Winter’s Bone (-)

BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (1)
2. James Franco, 127 Hours (2)
3. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (3)
4. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (6)
5. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5)

6. Robert Duvall, Get Low (4)
7. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (8)
8. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter (7)
9. Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole (9)
10. Leonardo diCaprio, Inception (-)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (2)
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (1)
3. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (3)
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone (5)
5. Lesley Manville, Another Year (4)

6. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (7)
7. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (6)
8. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham (9)
9. Naomi Watts, Fair Game (-)
10. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (-)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (2)
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (1)
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3)
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (6)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Town (7)

6. Ed Harris, The Way Back (5)
7. Matt Damon, True Grit (4)
8. Bill Murray, Get Low (-)
9. Sean Penn, Fair Game (-)
10. Jack Nicholson, How Do You Know? (-)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech (1)
2. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole (2)
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter (3)
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (5)
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (6)

6. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (7)
7. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (4)
8. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (-)
9. Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (8)
10. Elle Fanning, Somewhere (10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The King’s Speech (1)
2. The Kids Are All Right (2)
3. Another Year (3)
4. Inception (4)
5. The Fighter (5)

6. Blue Valentine (6)
7. Black Swan (7)
8. How Do You Know? (9)
9. The Illusionist (-)
10. Get Low (-)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Social Network (1)
2. Toy Story 3 (2)
3. True Grit (3)
4. Rabbit Hole (4)
5. Winter’s Bone (5)

6. 127 Hours (6)
7. The Town (7)
8. The Way Back (8)
9. How To Train Your Dragon (9)
10. The Ghost Writer (10)

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