Oscar Watch: Anne Thompson’s Final Predictions

Oscar Watch: Anne Thompson's Final Predictions

Thompson on Hollywood

With the Oscar nominations arriving Tuesday morning–my analysis of which will arrive promptly–I herewith deliver my final picks in all categories, in alphabetical order. I’m going out on a limb by putting Winter’s Bone in my top ten and omitting The Town, which I include in Best Adapted Screenplay, but not Winter’s Bone. I ended up putting Burlesque into Best Costume, not Inception. And I stuck with Sam Rockwell (Conviction) and Jeremy Renner (The Town) in Supporting Actor over Andrew Garfield (The Social Network).

Tomorrow may bring welcome news to Inception, which looks likely to lead the nominees, along with The King’s Speech; The Social Network may lose some momentum when it comes in with fewer noms…

You can watch the nomination announcement right here tomorrow morning:

Watch live streaming video from academyawards at livestream.com

Remember: Post-nominations is a different phase entirely.  See Steve Pond’s explanation of preferential ballots, which helps to explain how The King’s Speech won the PGA’s last weekend.

Let’s see how we all do tomorrow.


127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Winter’s Bone


Jeff Bridges True Grit
Robert Duvall Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg The Social Network
Colin Firth The King’s Speech
James Franco 127 Hours


Annette Bening The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence Winter’s Bone
Lesley Manville Another Year
Natalie Portman Black Swan


Darren Aronofsky Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen True Grit
David Fincher The Social Network
Tom Hooper The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan Inception


Christian Bale The Fighter
Jeremy Renner The Town
Sam Rockwell Conviction
Mark Ruffalo The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush The King’s Speech


Amy Adams The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld True Grit
Jacki Weaver Animal Kingdom


Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg The Kids Are All Right
Mark Heyman and Andres Heinz and John McLaughlin Black Swan
Chris Nolan Inception
David Seidler The King’s Speech
Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson (Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson) The Fighter


Ben Affleck, Peter Craig, Aaron Stockard The Town
Michael Arndt Toy Story 3
Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle 127 Hours
Joel and Ethan Coen True Grit
Aaron Sorkin The Social Network

…the rest are here: Complete Oscar Predicts Chart.

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The livestream worked great! I drove down to panera to use their internet and sometimes it’s not great with video, but I was really impressed. Another awesome Oscar Talk podcast as well!

Edward Copeland

I’m not sure about a lot of things, but Andrew Garfield being among the five supporting actor nominees is one of them. Really, Bale and Rush are the only locks of your five. Also, there are so many great adapted screenplay contenders this year, it would be a joke to waste a nomination on 127 Hours, especially over a great script such as Winter’s Bone. If Kidman manages to get nominated, I could even see Rabbit Hole’s script before 127 Hours.

Crow T Robot

I got $1 that says Inception isn’t nominated for best picture.

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