Indiewire conducted a poll of its writers as well over 25 of its Criticwire participants, asking two simple questions about this year's Film Independent Spirit Awards: Who will win, and who should win? In thirteen categories, insiders suggested who might take home an award at the ceremony this Saturday afternoon in Santa Monica, California.
If they're correct, look for a very spread out afternoon. "The Artist," "The Descendants," "Beginners," "Take Shelter," "Martha Marcy May Marlene," "Margin Call," "Pariah," "A Separation" and "The Interrupters" are among the films being predicted for wins.
As for who should win, things were generally quite divisive. "The Artist" – predicted as the winner of best feature – was not championed by the majority of those polled in any category, with "Drive," "Take Shelter," "Martha Marcy May Marlene" and "Beginners" proving more popular choices.
Check out all the results below, followed by links to each individual ballot.
Who Will Win: Exactly fifty percent of those polled agree that this is "The Artist"'s award to lose. But 37% said "The Descendants," suggesting this is much less of a closed deal than it is at the Oscars/
Who Should Win: "Drive" and "Take Shelter" tied here, each taking 25% of the vote, though it was a very spread out field: "The Descendants" had 21%; "Beginners" had 17% and "The Artist" had 14%. Only "50/50" failed to get any support"
Who Will Win: While "The Artist" was predicted for best feature, its director Michel Hazanavicius was only predicted to win best director by 27% of those polled. Forty-two percent instead said Alexander Payne was en route to his third win in this category (a record) for "The Descendants."
Who Should Win: All five directors got support here, though "Drive" director Nicolas Winding Refn topped them all with 38% of the vote. Behind him was Alexander Payne (21%), Jeff Nichols (21%), Mike Mills (13%) and Michel Hazanavicius (8%).
Who Should Win: Elizabeth Olsen is again the choice with 45% of the vote, but its a lot more spread out this time: Williams was second with 26%, Adepero Oduye took 22% and Rachael Harris found 4%. Sorry Lauren Ambrose.
Best Male Lead
Who Will Win: Another tight race, this time with three horses: Thirty-nine percent said "Take Shelter" actor Michael Shannon would win, topping Jean Dujardin (30%) and Ryan Gosling (21%).
Who Should Win: Michael Shannon found 50% of the support, but Dujardin (17%), Demian Bichir (17%), Ryan Gosling (13%) and Woody Harrellson (4%) all found support as well.
Best Supporting Female
Who Will Win: 2011 breakout Jessica Chastain has 64% of those polled saying she'll win this award for "Take Shelter," topping Shailene Woodley (27%) and Janet McTeer (9%). Technically, McTeer is only performance here also nominated for an Oscar, as Chastain was nominated there for not-so-indie-spirited "The Help."
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain was the voters' hope as well, taking 42% over Woodley (22%), McTeer (14%), Harmony Santana (14%) and Anjelica Huston (9%).
Best Supporting Male
Who Will Win: In what our pollees suggest will be the only acting crossover with Oscar night, a whopping 74% say Christopher Plummer will win this, beating Oscar snubee Albert Brooks (who took the remaining 26%)
Who Should Win: Forty-two percent say Christopher Plummer also deserves it, though Brooks and John Hawkes (who won in this category this year) each took 25%.
Who Will Win: Voters say Alexander Payne will add yet another Spirit Award to his mantel here, for co-writing the screenplay for "The Descendants." The "Descendants" team took 76% of the vote, topping Mike Mills' script for "Beginners" (which took 19% for second place).
Who Should Win: This time it was "Beginners" that was the top choice, with 33% saying it should win. All five nominees got votes though, with "Footnote" and "Win Win" each getting 19% of the support, and "The Artist" and "The Decendants" getting 14%.
Who Should Win: Its "Martha" vs. "Margin" again, with "Martha Marcy May Marlene" narrowly topping its fellow Sundance alum 36% to 32%. "Another Earth" and "In The Family" each got multiple votes as well.
John Cassavetes Award
Who Will Win: Dee Rees' "Pariah" is the overwhelming favorite in this category that celebrates low-budget filmmaking, with 81% saying it will win. "Bellflower" was the only other vote-getter.
Best Foreign Film
Who Will Win: The only category with 100% consensus: "A Separation" will win this award.
Check out all of the individual ballots below, which also include picks for the Oscars:
Nigel M. Smith