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Oscars: Predicting The Golden Globe And SAG Nominations

Oscars: Predicting The Golden Globe And SAG Nominations

The Critics Choice Awards nominations, announced this morning? They're for the birds, man. The next couple of days sees the awards nomination announcements keep coming, with two more major precursors being unveiled: the Screen Actors' Guild tomorrow, followed on Thursday by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association's Golden Globes awards.

Given that the former shares a similar membership to the Academy, it always offers a few clues (like last year's surprise nominee Demian Bichir), though don't always match up exactly (Armie Hammer and Tilda Swinton were among those honored by the guild who missed out with the Academy). The rightfully derided HFPA are essentially star-fuckers, and in a year in which Oscar nominations will be announced before the Globes are awarded, are less important than ever. But the awards do get more publicity than any other precursor, so they may be able to suggest some influence in some ways, at least with their nominations. And if nothing else, in a year where they can't vote for regulars Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp, it'll be interesting to see who does step in.

We've made our predictions for both the SAGs and the Globes below; let us know your own in the comments section, and check back in the next couple of days to see how they turned out. SAGs below, Globes on page 2.

SAGs

Best Ensemble
"Argo"
"Les Miserables"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

The SAG's equivalent of the Best Picture prize, this was never going to be something that "Life Of Pi" was contending for. We suspect that "The Master" may not have the depth of a supporting cast that usually pays off in this category, but don't be entirely surprised if "Zero Dark Thirty" falls out and Paul Thomas Anderson's film, "Moonrise Kingdom" or "Django Unchained," fall in instead.

Best Male Actor In A Leading Role
Denzel Washington – "Flight"
Daniel Day-Lewis – "Lincoln"
Joaquin Phoenix – "The Master"
John Hawkes – "The Sessions"
Bradley Cooper – "Silver Linings Playbook"

Again, this reflects our thinking in terms of the Oscars, though Cooper's neck and neck with Jackman, who might take his place. If the SAG throw in a Demian Bichir-style curveball, it'll be Jean-Louis Trintignant, Richard Gere or (very, very faintly) Denis Lavant.

Best Female Actor In A Leading Role
Emmanuelle Riva – "Amour"
Quvenzhane Wallis – "Beasts Of The Southern Wild"
Rachel Weisz – "The Deep Blue Sea"
Jennifer Lawrence – "Silver Linings Playbook"
Jessica Chastain – "Zero Dark Thirty"

With some heat off the critics' awards, our hunch is that Rachel Weisz could surprise with a place in the final five here. But Helen Mirren, Keira Knightely, Marion Cotillard and Naomi Watts are all snapping at her heels.

Best Male Actor In A Supporting Role
Alan Arkin – "Argo"
Leonardo DiCaprio – "Django Unchained"
Tommy Lee Jones – "Lincoln"
Philip Seymour Hoffman – "The Master"
Robert De Niro – "Silver Linings Playbook"

Again a tough one to call, but we think the SAGs will take Alan Arkin more seriously than Matthew McConaughey. We have our doubts about the appeal of "Les Miserables" to the SAG, but if they do love it, look for Eddie Redmayne to sneak in here too.

Best Female Actor  In A Supporting Role
Ann Dowd – "Compliance"
Anne Hathaway – "Les Miserables"
Sally Field – "Lincoln"
Amy Adams – "The Master"
Helen Hunt – "The Sessions"

Now firmly in the race thanks to some key precursor wins and nominations, we think Ann Dowd gets the surprise indie nomination this year. The rest of the field is business as usual, and yes, Hathaway wins.

Golden Globes

Best Picture – Drama
"Argo"
"Django Unchained"
"Life Of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

We think that Tarantino's latest is going to go down well with the Globes, even we're not yet convinced of its Oscar bona-fides, so look for it to push out "The Master," "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "The Impossible" here. The other four are all locked in, bar a huge snub.

Best Picture – Comedy/Musical
"Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
"Les Miserables"
"Magic Mike"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Ted"

"Les Miserables" has this won, and "Silver Linings Playbook" is a sure nominee. Beyond that, it's harder to call, but we'd look for "Ted" to fill the broad comedy slot in place of "This Is 40," while we suspect the indie minded "Moonrise Kingdom" will miss out in favor of "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" and "Magic Mike." One to keep an eye on, potentially, is "The Guilt Trip."

Best Director
Ben Affleck – "Argo"
Tom Hooper – "Les Miserables"
Ang Lee – "Life Of Pi"
Steven Spielberg – "Lincoln"
Kathryn Bigelow – "Zero Dark Thirty"

We're expecting this to be the same line-up at the Oscars, but things are still fluid. Bigelow and Spielberg are locked in, Affleck and Hooper as good as in. Lee is the most likely to slip out, but who could replace him? David O. Russell, whose film is a heavyweight elsewhere? Two-time nominee Tarantino?  Paul Thomas Anderson (we think "The Master" isn't going to fare well with the Globes, for the most part, so probably not)?

Best Actress – Drama
Keira Knightley – "Anna Karenina"
Quvenzhane Wallis – "Beasts Of The Southern Wild"
Naomi Watts – "The Impossible"
Marion Cotillard – "Rust And Bone"
Jessica Chastain – "Zero Dark Thirty"

With a couple of major contenders in the comedy/musical race, look for Critics Choice nominee Naomi Watts to step in, and we've got good money on Keira Knightely, given her previous nod for "Atonement." Being a bigger name means we're backing Marion Cotillard over Emmanuelle Riva, but it could go either way, or Rachel Weisz or Helen Mirren could slip in too.

Best Actor – Drama
Ben Affleck – "Argo"
Denzel Washington – "Flight"
Daniel Day-Lewis – "Lincoln"
Joaquin Phoenix – "The Master"
John Hawkes – "The Sessions"

Again, with Jackman and Cooper, who are essentially vying for that fifth Oscar slot in this category, battling it out elsewhere, there's a space open away from the usual categories. Many have pointed to Anthony Hopkins, Daniel Craig or Jamie Foxx possbily surprising here, but we think Ben Affleck will figure as well, even if he doesn't elsewhere in awards season for acting.

Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
Judi Dench – "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Barbra Streisand – "The Guilt Trip"
Meryl Streep – "Hope Springs"
Jennifer Lawrence – "Silver Linings Playbook"
Leslie Mann – "This Is 40"

A pretty sparse category, Lawrence aside (and it's pretty much hers to win), we think vets Meryl Streep, Judi Dench and Barbara Streisand are right in the HFPA's wheelhouse (though Maggie Smith could also pop up for "Quartet" and Leslie Mann could figure in for "This Is 40"). A potential surprise could be Anna Kendrick for "Pitch Perfect.'

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Jack Black – "Bernie"
Bill Murray – "Hyde Park On Hudson"
Hugh Jackman – "Les Miserables"
Bradley Cooper – "Silver Linings Playbook"
Mark Wahlberg – "Ted"

In reality a two-horse race between Jackman and Cooper (and Jackman'll take it), Bill Murray and Jack Black are the only other serious contenders who'll figure in here. And while Channing Tatum, Tommy Lee Jones in "Hope Springs" and Omar Sy could figure into the running, the smart money is on a nod for Mark Wahlberg in "Ted."

Best Supporting Actress
Maggie Smith – "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Anne Hathaway – "Les Miserables"
Sally Field – "Lincoln"
Helen Hunt – "The Sessions"
Judi Dench – "Skyfall"

As the categories get conflated in supporting, things get more competitive, and for the most part this should mirror the way Oscar falls. That said, our gut says that the HFPA wont' respond to 'The Master," meaning that Judi Dench may well make the final five in place of surefire Academy honoree Amy Adams. Or, if they really love 'Les Mis,' Samantha Barks could join co-star Anne Hathaway.

Best Supporting Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio – "Django Unchained"
Tommy Lee Jones – "Lincoln"
Matthew McConaughey – "Magic Mike"
Philip Seymour Hoffman – "The Master"
Robert De Niro – "Silver Linings Playbook"

A highly competitive category, but it's always smart to go with the big star names when it comes down to it. As such, big draws Leonardo DiCaprio and Matthew McConaughey will probably beat out Alan Arkin and Eddie Redmayne for the fourth and fifth slot (the others are probably locked in, though we wouldn't be totally surprised if PSH fell out). Also to be watched is Javier Bardem for "Skyfall" and Russell Crowe for "Les Miserables."

Best Screenplay
Chris Terrio – "Argo"
Quentin Tarantino – "Django Unchained"
Tony Kushner – "Lincoln"
David O Russell – "Silver Linings Playbook"
Mark Boal – "Zero Dark Thirty"

The Globes tend to go with the bigger names here, so expect it to mirror the drama nominees, minus "Life Of Pi." One potential spoiler, perhaps in place of Tarantino, is Wes Anderson, but his films have never been great favorites of the HFPA.

Best Original Score
Dario Marianeli – "Anna Karenina"
Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin – "Beasts Of The Southern Wild"
Mychael Danna – "LIfe Of Pi"
John Williams – "Lincoln"
Jonny Greenwood – "The Master"

We're expecting this to mirror the way the Academy will go, though his rock star status should give Jonny Greenwood a better chance here than there. If he does fall down, look for Alexandre Desplat, Danny Elfman or Howard Shore to fill the gap.

Best Original Song
Birdy & Mumford & Sons – "Learn Me Right" ("Brave")
John Legend – "Who Did That To You" ("Django Unchained")
Hugh Jackman – "Suddenly" ("Les Miserables")
Adele – "Skyfall" ("Skyfall")
Florence & The Machine – "Breath Of Life" ("Snow White & The Huntsman")

Again, big names are the way to go here, so our money is on Mumford & Sons, Adele, Florence + The Machine and John Legend joining sure-fire nominee and probable winner Hugh Jackman.

Best Animated Feature Film
"Brave"
"Frankenweenie"
"ParaNorman"
"Rise Of The Guardians"
"Wreck-It Ralph"

Like the Critics' Choice today, expect this to be an all-studio affair. "Madagascar 3" has a fair chance of pushing out 'Guardians' or "ParaNorman," though.

Best Foreign Film
"Amour"
"Biancaneives"
"The Intouchables"
"A Royal Affair"
"Rust & Bone"

Again, think the bigger, more populist names on offer. We're rolling a dice for the fifth slot here, but we think Spanish film "Biancaneives" is one to watch in the category in general, so we've gone for it here.

 

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Comments

Lara

Wallis is not eligible at the SAG. Cotillard is definitely enjoying a better reputation than Weisz among the actors voting for the it. Since they gave it to Christie over Cotillard in 2008, she evolved her statue and they might reward that. Do you really see actors going for a 22 years old girl or Carry 2.0? Personally I think they are gonna go for Cotillard or Mirren.

justin

can you redo the SAG best actress category since "beasts" is not being considered by the group.

kendra

Can't imagine Adams not getting in. They love her.

Kyle

As I recall "Beasts …" isn't eligible so I don't think Wallis can be nominated in SAG for best actress

Ronnie D.

Not to mention the incredible, deeply intimate actings, particularly from Michelle Williams and Rashida Jones.

Ronnie D.

It's a shame that really intimate romantic comedies like Celeste and Jesse Forever and Take this Waltz, movies that have more greatly thought out characters and relationships than any of the movies on this list (looking at your especially, Silver Linings Playbook) don't receive any real recognition – there needs to be a change in the whole system.

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