Thought that we’d be having a bit of a breather from awards season stuff now that the Oscar nominations are out? Ha ha, think again. Sunday brings the Golden Globes, and though they are given out by the fairly discredited Hollywood Foreign Press Association, they are probably the most high-profile awards ceremony bar the Oscars. And this year, they have a slightly different role; the move up of the nomination announcements means that the Globes winners will be timed nicely for the start of phase two of Academy voting.
While most in Hollywood realize that a Globe doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, it does give the winners the chance to show their graciousness and wit — look at how Jean Dujardin‘s charming speech last year helped to cement his victory with the Academy, for example. So they could turn out to be somewhat crucial this year, depending on how the winners go down. Plus Amy Poehler and Tina Fey are hosting, so it should be fun at least. So, with a little over 48 hours to go, we’ve picked who we think will win. Make your own predictions in the comments section, and come back on Sunday for the results.
Best Television Series – Drama
Should Win: “Breaking Bad,” by a country mile.
Will Win: Walter White’s show is a possibility — it’s never been nominated in the category before — but “Homeland” (last year’s winner) or “Downton Abbey” feel more like traditional HFPA picks.
Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series – Drama
Connie Britton, “Nashville”
Glenn Close, “Damages”
Claire Danes, “Homeland”
Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey”
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”
Should Win: Though it’s easily parodied, Claire Danes is still killing it week-on-week in “Homeland,” even if the writing’s not been as strong this year.
Will Win: Given that Danes took the prize last year, she’s a pretty safe bet to repeat.
Best Performance by an Actor In A Television Series – Drama
Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom”
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Damian Lewis, “Homeland”
Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire”
Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”
Should Win: As great as Cranston is on “Breaking Bad,” Jon Hamm had his best year to date on “Mad Men,” and would be a deserving winner here.
Will Win: Hamm hasn’t won since 2007, and Cranston’s never won before, but Damian Lewis feels like the safe bet here.
Best Television Series – Comedy Or Musical
“The Big Bang Theory”
Should Win: Given that the HFPA failed to nominate any other deserving shows, this should be the excellent “Girls” in a cakewalk.
Will Win: “Modern Family” or “The Big Bang Theory”
Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series – Comedy Or Musical
Zooey Deschanel, “New Girl”
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”
Lena Dunham, “Girls”
Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”
Should Win: Actually a remarkably strong category, as it was in the Emmys (there’s no one who could win here that would upset us), but we think Amy Poehler deserves some recognition for her best turn yet on “Parks & Rec.” And also for hosting the Globes themselves….
Will Win: Her co-host Tina Fey could be a good bet, given that it’s the final season of “30 Rock,” but Emmy winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus is probably more likely.
Best Performance by an Actor In A Television Series – Comedy Or Musical
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
Don Cheadle, “House of Lies”
Louis C.K., “Louie”
Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes”
Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
Should Win: As great as Alec Baldwin‘s been in “30 Rock” this year, there’s only one real choice here: Mr. Louis C.K.
Will Win: Last year’s winner Matt LeBlanc could repeat, but we’ve got a strange feeling about Don Cheadle in this category.
Best Mini-Series Or Motion Picture Made for Television
“Hatfields & McCoys”
Should Win: So long as it’s not “The Girl,” we don’t mind. But “Game Change” is probably the best bet here, though the second season of “The Hour” was much improved.
Will Win: “Game Change”
Best Performance by an Actress In A Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nicole Kidman, “Hemingway and Gelhorn”
Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Asylum”
Sienna Miller, “The Girl”
Julianne Moore, “Game Change”
Sigourney Weaver, “Political Animals”
Should Win: Although it was rubbish, Sienna Miller was actually very good in “The Girl,” but we’d probably still lean towards Julianne Moore.
Will Win: The Globes love Nicole Kidman, and the Globes love rewarding movie stars in this category, but Jessica Lange may be the favorite here (she won Supporting Actress last year) .
Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Kevin Costner, “Hatfields & McCoys”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock”
Woody Harrelson, “Game Change”
Toby Jones, “The Girl”
Clive Owen, “Hemingway and Gelhorn”
Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch is pretty astonishing in “Sherlock,” to be fair, he’d be a worthy winner here.
Will Win: Kevin Costner feels like the smart pick, though Woody Harrelson or Clive Owen might take it too.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture
Hayden Panettiere, “Nashville”
Archie Panjabi, “The Good Wife”
Sarah Paulson, “Game Change”
Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey”
Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family”
Should Win: This is a bonkers category, as ever, but we’d probably go with Archie Panjabi, who continues to be phenomenal on “The Good Wife,” even if she got saddled with a rubbish plotline this year.
Will Win: With Lange moved to another category, this feels like Maggie Smith‘s to lose.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture
Max Greenfield, “New Girl”
Ed Harris, “Game Change”
Danny Huston, “Magic City”
Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland”
Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family”
Should Win: Mandy Patinkin‘s actually giving our favorite performance on “Homeland,” but even so, we’d lean towards rewarding Max Greenfield, who’s phenomenal week in and week out on “New Girl.”
Will Win: Tough to call, but Ed Harris seems the most likely victor here.
Chris Terrio – “Argo”
Quentin Tarantino – “Django Unchained”
Tony Kushner – “Lincoln”
David O. Russell – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Mark Boal – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Should Win: An embarrassment of riches really, in this category (when will the HFPA split the category?), but Chris Terrio would be my pick here.
Will Win: Honestly anyone could win here, but our gut’s saying Quentin Tarantino, for some reason.
Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat – “Argo”
Dario Marianelli – “Anna Karenina”
Tom Tykwer, Johnny Klimek, Reinhold Heil – “Cloud Atlas”
Mychael Danna – “Life Of Pi”
John Williams – “Lincoln”
Should Win: I’d be happy with either Dario Marianelli‘s outstanding work on “Anna Karenina,” or Mychael Danna‘s equally terrific “Life Of Pi” score.
Will Win: Feels like John Williams to me, though Mychael Danna‘s a possibility as well.
Best Original Song
Keith Urban – “For You” (“Act Of Valor”)
Taylor Swift – “Safe & Sound” (“The Hunger Games”)
Hugh Jackman – “Suddenly” (“Les Miserables”)
Adele – “Skyfall” (“Skyfall”)
Jon Bon Jovi – “Not Running Anymore” – (“Stand Up Guys”)
Should Win: Ugh, this category. “Skyfall” is the best pick here by about a million miles. To convince you, here’s Paul F. Tompkins singing the song.
Will Win: Either Adele or the “Les Miserables” track, probably the latter.
Best Animated Feature Film
“Rise Of The Guardians”
Should Win: I admittedly haven’t seen “Wreck-It Ralph” yet, but of the other four, I’d go with “Brave,” Pixar‘s most undervalued film.
Will Win: “Frankenweenie” has done well in a lot of the precursors, but ‘Ralph’ could spoil its thunder.
Best Foreign Film
”A Royal Affair”
“Rust & Bone”
Should Win: “Amour” is the best film of a rather middling line-up, though “Rust & Bone” wouldn’t be a terrible choice either.
Will Win: “The Intouchables” is the most traditionally Golden Globes-y choice here,but maybe they’ll lean towards “Amour”?
Ben Affleck – “Argo”
Quentin Tarantino – “Django Unchained”
Ang Lee – “Life Of Pi”
Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”
Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Should Win: In a category with three helmers snubbed by the Academy, any one of them would be satisfying, but as we reckon Ben Affleck has a good chance with the DGA now, Kathryn Bigelow might be the one we’d really like here, if only because the film is so un-Golden Globes-y.
Will Win: That said, the Oscar announcements came too close to really affect things here, but that doesn’t mean that the starry-eyed HFPA will be able to resist giving the prize, as the Critics Choice awards did last night, to Affleck. But Steven Spielberg‘s also an option.
Best Actress – Drama
Rachel Weisz – “The Deep Blue Sea”
Helen Mirren – “Hitchcock”
Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”
Marion Cotillard – “Rust & Bone”
Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Should Win: Rachel Weisz, if only to encourage more people to watch the film.
Will Win: Jessica Chastain‘s the only really viable contender, though there’s a slim possibility that Naomi Watts could upset.
Best Actor – Drama
Richard Gere – “Arbitrage”
Denzel Washington – “Flight”
Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”
John Hawkes – “The Sessions”
Should Win: John Hawkes, if only to make up for missing out with the Academy.
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, almost certainly. Denzel Washington‘s a possible spoiler, but it’s very unlikely.
Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
Judi Dench – “Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
Meryl Streep – “Hope Springs”
Maggie Smith – “Quartet”
Emily Blunt – “Salmon Fishing In The Yemen”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence. We wouldn’t be against recognizing Emily Blunt for her another performance this year, but the “Salmon Fishing In the Yemen” one isn’t all that worthy, though she’s fine in the film.
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, 100%.
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Jack Black – “Bernie”
Bill Murray – “Hyde Park On Hudson”
Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
Ewan McGregor – Salmon Fishing In The Yemen”
Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Should Win: Jack Black, who gives a career-best turn in “Bernie.” Sadly, he’ll have to be happy with the nomination.
Will Win: A very tight race between Bradley Cooper and Hugh Jackman, but our money’s on Jackman taking this one.
Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway – “Les Miserables”
Sally Field – “Lincoln”
Amy Adams – “The Master”
Nicole Kidman – “The Paperboy”
Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
Should Win: Amy Adams. She’s a three-time Oscar bridesmaid in the category, and a Golden Globe win might help to temp voters away from the inevitability of the Hathaway option.
Will Win: The Anne Hathaway option. Though Sally Field could surprise.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin – “Argo”
Christoph Waltz – “Django Unchained”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “Django Unchained”
Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman. For all the adoration that Joaquin Phoenix received, Hoffman has the trickier and subtler role, and he’s transcendentally good in it.
Will Win: Probably Tommy Lee Jones, but it could be one or the other of the ‘Django’ boys, if they don’t cancel each other out.
Best Picture – Comedy/Musical
“Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
“Salmon Fishing In The Yemen”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
Should Win: “Moonrise Kingdom” is the pick of the bunch here, but doesn’t stand a chance, really.
Will Win: We suspect it’s going to be “Silver Linings Playbook” over “Les Miserables,” but the reverse could also be true.
Best Picture – Drama
”Life Of Pi”
”Zero Dark Thirty”
Should Win: We wouldn’t be upset any way ’round here, but ‘Life Of Pi” gets our vote.
Will Win: Feels like “Lincoln” to us, with “Argo” as a possible spoiler.