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Oscar Talk: ‘Argo’ vs. ‘Lincoln,’ PGA, SAG, and DGA; Affleck and Day-Lewis Hit Santa Barbara

Oscar Talk: 'Argo' vs. 'Lincoln,' PGA, SAG, and DGA; Affleck and Day-Lewis Hit Santa Barbara

On this week’s Oscar Talk podcast, Kris Tapley and I discuss the recent PGA and SAG wins for Ben Affleck’s “Argo,” which is now mounting a formidable challenge to Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln.” And we cover last weekend’s Affleck and Daniel Day-Lewis tributes in Santa Barbara.

While I can see several key Oscar races going “Argo”‘s way, Affleck’s lack of a director nom remains a statistical barrier to a Best Picture win. Kris advocates for “Argo” all the way, while I want to see what happens at the Directors Guild Awards this weekend. He says Affleck or Ang Lee will win that group; I think it’s Spielberg. This means I have backed off my bet on Lee.

Next week we’ll read the tea leaves after the DGA awards, and check out the race for animated and live action shorts–picking right can determine whether or not you win your Oscar pool.

The podcast is also on iTunes.

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The Academy seems to prefer emotional movies these days. If I were promoting Lincoln I would remind people that Spielberg directed the very emotional War Horse last year. In the ads I would put a picture of War Horse with the text: FROM THE DIRECTOR OF WAR HORSE – and then cut to a picture of Lincoln. That way academy-members will feel they are voting for the two movies combined. Does this sound silly?

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