On this week's Oscar Talk podcast, Kris Tapley and I discuss the recent PGA and SAG wins for Ben Affleck's "Argo," which is now mounting a formidable challenge to Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln." And we cover last weekend's Affleck and Daniel Day-Lewis tributes in Santa Barbara.
While I can see several key Oscar races going "Argo"'s way, Affleck's lack of a director nom remains a statistical barrier to a Best Picture win. Kris advocates for "Argo" all the way, while I want to see what happens at the Directors Guild Awards this weekend. He says Affleck or Ang Lee will win that group; I think it's Spielberg. This means I have backed off my bet on Lee.
Next week we'll read the tea leaves after the DGA awards, and check out the race for animated and live action shorts–picking right can determine whether or not you win your Oscar pool.
The podcast is also on iTunes.