With all the advance tickets sales, and as Tambay on Friday said
it was going to happen…
… well it did.
Best Man Holiday had a solid opening, besting most
box office predictions, coming in second behind Thor: The Dark World , which earned $38.5 million.
Holiday actually grossed more than Dark World on Friday, but the Mighty Thor rose up to vanquish Best Man over the weekend.
BMH opened with $30.6
million this weekend, proving most box office experts wrong who predicted a
more modest $17–$20 million opening.
The one exception being Erik Childress
of EFilmCritc.com, WGN Radio and WCIU-TV Chicago, one of the few consistently
accurate box office analysts, who predicted a $34 million opening for Holiday a few weeks ago. (Even I thought he
was way off.)
This puts Holiday well on track to do Think Like A Man business which opened
with $33.7 million and did over $90 million
at the box office and it could possibly do even more than that, perhaps even reaching
Still the film, with its modest $17 million production budget, low budget for a studio film, is already
guaranteed to be a huge success for Universal
and will far out gross 1999’s The Best Man which made a modest $34 million total at the box office.
But of course I have to be a spoil sport, so here it is…
There are a few things that could keep Holiday from
reaching Think Like A Man’s total gross. First of all, the film could be victim to, as I
call it, the “Comic Con fanboy” factor in that everyone
who really wanted to see the film went out the first week and everyone else has
a more wait and see, “I’ll get to it later” attitude which could cause a significant
drop in the b.o. total in the following weeks.
But there’s another problem too, and that’s the heavy competition
that’s coming out, starting next week, through the holiday season.
The film will be going to be going up against such heavy
hitters like The Hunger Games:
Catching Fire (which is opening in over 4000 theaters next weekend and is already projected to make some $150 million in its opening weekend, and
Childress said it could be even higher than that), The Wolf of Wall Street,
Lone Survivor, Saving Mr. Banks, The Secret
Life of Walter Mitty, and Anchorman 2. On top of that there are, of course, other black films coming
out soon in the next few weeks, such as Black
Nativity, Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom, and, dare we say it, A Madea Christmas (which Childress predicted last week will have
one of the biggest weekend openings for any Madea film. Once again I disagree and once again we’ll know soon enough).
For Holiday to hit $90 million or more it’s going to need
really strong word of mouth, which it seems to be getting, to keep people flocking to it and to keep the
week to week box office drop lower than expected. Time will tell, as the weeks
goes by, what the final outcome will be.
As for other films, Gravity
has already passed the half a billion box office mark worldwide, both Last Vegas and Jackass: Bad Grandpa have become “where did that come from?” genuine
fall sleeper hits, and 12 Years A Slave,
still playing in a limited run in 1400 theaters, has made about $25 million to date.