For Your Consideration: New Oscar Predictions In The Wake of a Storm of December Precursors

For Your Consideration: New Oscar Predictions In The Wake of a Storm of December Precursors

As it does every December, the 2014 Oscar race has essentially gone from a wide open question mark to a largely settled snooze fest in just two weeks. Sometimes it ends up that these two weeks — when the Golden Globes, SAGs, Critics Choice and about 2,000 or so critics groups all announce their year-end kudos — are the most exciting part of awards season. Because this is when the 5, 6 or if we’re lucky 7 contenders in each of the acting races are more-or-less confirmed and the Academy usually ends up sticking to them.

If an actor doesn’t end up with at least one nomination from the Globes, SAG or the Critics Choice, there’s a very slim chance they’ll end up with an Oscar nomination. Though ask Jacki Weaver how she feels about that slim chance. She’s the only one that beat it last year when she ended up with an Oscar nomination for “Silver Linings Playbook.” Or, Marion Cotillard and John Hawkes, for that matter, who were both nominated for all three and then didn’t end up making it to Oscar’s shortlist. The year before, there were two actors (Max von Sydow and Gary Oldman) made the cut without a SAG, Globe or Critics Choice nod, while two (Tilda Swinton and Leonardo DiCaprio) did not despite getting all three. If that trend continues this year, I’d bet — for what it’s worth — that Jonah Hill (“The Wolf of Wall Street”) is the one who makes it in without any of the precursors.

So then who falls out? The following folks managed nods from all 3 organizations: Bruce Dern, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Tom Hanks (for “Captain Phillips,” not “Mr. Banks” which he was snubbed in all 3 for), Matthew McConaughey, Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, Judi Dench, Meryl Streep, Emma Thompson, Barkhad Abdi, Daniel Bruhl, Michael Fassbender, Jared Leto, Jennifer Lawrence, Lupita Nyong’o and June Squibb. The predictions below suggest Daniel Bruhl as the sole Oscar exclusion from that group — but if I had to pick one or two more it would honestly be “August: Osage County” duo Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts, in that order.

As for the race overall, it seems like the Steve McQueen’s “12 Years a Slave” vs. Alfonso Cuarón’s “Gravity” narrative that was set in early September remains, though David O. Russell’s “American Hustle” seems like their biggest challenger. Best picture (and best director, for that matter) will almost certainly come from one of those three films. “12 Years” and “Hustle” were by and large the films to get the most nominations from the Globes and Critics Choice (tying in both regards with 7 and 13 nods apiece, respectively). But notably “Gravity” — essentially a one-woman show — pretty much got every nomination it was really in contention for, losing out on higher nomination counts due to its minimal cast. This could give us something of a nail-biter when it comes to best picture, and perhaps another picture/director split (suggestively at this point with “12 Years” getting best picture and Cuarón getting best director, but it could be the other way around or involve “American Hustle” somehow).

Beyond those three, Alexander Payne’s “Nebraska” and Paul Greengrass’s “Captain Phillips” are looking pretty locked in for best picture nominations, and then it gets a little more unstable. We don’t know how many nominations there will be, after all, though the remaining 0-5 slots seem to be a battle between 6 films (in order of likelihood, at least as far as I’m concerned): Joel & Ethan Coen’s “Inside Llewyn Davis,” Spike Jonze’s “Her,” Martin Scorsese’s “The Wolf of Wall Street,” John Lee Hancock’s “Saving Mr. Banks,” Jean-Marc Vallee’s “Dallas Buyers Club” and Stephen Frears’ “Philomena.” 

Those predictions and ones for every category save the short films are listed below, and they suggest that overall that “12 Years a Slave” would easily lead the nomination count with 11, while “American Hustle,” “Captain Phillips” and “Gravity” would each have 8. For more commentary on each individual category, click
here.

Best Picture:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

If There’s a 9th Nominee: Saving Mr. Banks
If There’s a 10th Nominee: Dallas Buyers Club
The Spoiler Nominee: Philomena
Pretty Please: Before Midnight
Winner Prediction: 12 Years a Slave


Best Director:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze, Her
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle

The Spoiler Nominee: Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Pretty Please: Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Winner Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity


Best Actress:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench
, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

The Spoiler Nominee: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Pretty Please: Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color
Winner Prediction: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Best Actor:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

The Spoiler Nominee: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Pretty Please: Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Winner Prediction: Bruce Dern, Nebraska


Best Supporting Actress:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

The Spoiler Nominee: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Pretty Please: Scarlett Johannson, Her
Winner Prediction: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Best Supporting Actor:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Barkhad Adbi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

The Spoiler Nominee: Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Pretty Please: James Franco, Spring Breakers
Winner Prediction: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club


Best Original Screenplay:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
David O. Russell & Eric Singer, American Hustle

The Spoiler Nominee: Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said
Pretty Please: Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Winner Prediction: David O. Russell & Eric Singer, American Hustle

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
Bill Ray, Captain Phillips
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

The Spoiler Nominee: Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
Pretty Please: Abdellatif Kechiche & Ghalia Lacroix, Blue is the Warmest Color
Winner Prediction: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave


Best Foreign Language Film:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Gabrielle (Canada)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Past (Iran)
Wadjda (Saudi Arabia)

The Spoiler Nominee: Gloria (Chile)
Pretty Please: Ilo Ilo (Singapore)
Winner Prediction: Wadjda (Saudi Arabia)

Best Documentary Feature:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
The Act of Killing
Blackfish
The Square
Stories We Tell
Twenty Feet From Stardom

The Spoiler Nominee: Tim’s Vermeer
Pretty Please: Cutie and the Boxer
Winner Prediction: Stories We Tell


Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):

Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises

The Spoiler Nominee: The Croods
Pretty Please: N/A
Winner Prediction: Frozen

Best Cinematography:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):

Sean Bobbitt, 12 Years a Slave
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Hoyte Van Hoytema, Her
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska

The Spoiler Nominee: Anthony Dod Mantle, Rush
Pretty Please: Bradford Young, Ain’t Them Bodies Saints
Winner Prediction: Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity

Best Film Editing:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Joe Walker, 12 Years a Slave
Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers, American Hustle
Christopher Rouse, Captain Phillips

Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger, Gravity
Daniel P. Hanley & Mike Hill, Rush

The Spoiler Nominee: Thelma Shoonmaker, The Wolf of Wall Street
Pretty Please: Jeff Buchanan & Eric Zumbrunnen, Her
Winner Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger, Gravity

Best Production Design:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Adam Stochausen & Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Catherine Martin & Beverly Dunn, The Great Gatsby

K.K. Barrett & Gene Serdena, Her
Jess Gonchor & Susan Bode, Inside Llewyn Davis
Michael Corenblith & Susan Benjamin, Saving Mr. Banks

The Spoiler Nominee: Andy Nicholson & Rosie Goodwin, Gravity
Pretty Please: Julie Berghoff & Sophie Neudorfer, The Conjuring
Winner Prediction: Adam Stochausen & Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave

Best Costume Design:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Patricia Norris, 12 Years a Slave
Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby

Michael O’Connor, The Invisible Woman
Daniel Orlandi, Saving Mr. Banks

The Spoiler Nominee: Mary Zophres, Inside Llewyn Davis
Pretty Please: François Barbeau & Xavier Dolan, Laurence Anyways
Winner Prediction: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle


Best Original Score:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave

John Williams, The Book Thief
Steven Price, Gravity
William Butler & Owen Pallett, Her
Thomas Newman, Saving Mr. Banks

The Spoiler Nominee: Alex Ebert, All Is Lost
Pretty Please: Mike Patton, The Place Beyond The Pines
Winner Prediction: Steven Price, Gravity

Best Original Song:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
“Amen” (All Is Lost)
“Doby” (Anchorman 2)
“Let It Go” (Frozen)
“The Moon Song” (Her)
“Young and Beautiful” (The Great Gatsby)

The Spoiler Nominee: “Sweeter Than Fiction” (One Chance)
Pretty Please: “So You Know What It’s Like” (Short Term 12)
Winner Prediction: “Let It Go” (Frozen)

Best Sound Mixing:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Rush

The Spoiler Nominee: All Is Lost
Winner Prediction: Gravity

Best Sound Editing:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Rush

The Spoiler Nominee: Pacific Rim
Winner Prediction: Gravity

Best Visual Effects:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Gravity
The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
World War Z

The Spoiler Nominee: Iron Man 3
Winner Prediction: Gravity


Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
American Hustle
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

The Spoiler Nominee: Dallas Buyers Club
Winner Prediction: The Lone Ranger


Peter Knegt is Indiewire’s Senior Writer and awards columnist. Follow him on Twitter.

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Comments

cinemadude

Bruce Dern for Best Actor? Your drunk IW

sam

GLORIA IS A WONDERFUL FILM AND MUS BE IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM NOMINEE AND PAULINA GARCÍA BEST ACTRESS.

renee_church@yahoo.com

my neighbor's mother makes $64 an hour on the laptop. She has been laid off for nine months but last month her pay was $19252 just working on the laptop for a few hours. see here…..
http://7.ly/dnfa

Ashley

The academy is going to lose credibility if they ignore Adele's brilliant performance.

Ashley

The academy is going to lose credibility if they ignore Adèle's brilliant performance.

unsoo

Excuse me, Mr. Knegt, but did the predictions change within a few hours? I could've sworn "Cutie and the Boxer" was actually a predicted nominee of yours.

Yair Raveh

Hans Zimmer will win Best Score for 12 Years a Slave.

Reuben

I missed getting to see the movie, but if it's half as good as the series it's based on, Madoka would be my "pretty please" for animation.

ljennifer442@yahoo.com

my buddy's mother-in-law makes $83/hour on the computer. She has been laid off for 7 months but last month her pay was $17954 just working on the computer for a few hours. read this…..http://7.ly/dkZm

Jace Paul

Gravity vs. 12 Years a Slave? I find it a bit depressing that in the year 2013 a film with the dramatic weight and cultural significance of 12 Years is up against a film that's yet another variant of "ill-prepared and emotionally damaged white woman needs rescuing from a a level-headed and charming man." Gravity looks and sounds great, but in terms of content the plot is as vacant as the depths of space.

Raul

I think Brie Larson in "Short Term 12" is the spoiler nominee for actress. She has picked up quite a few critics' prizes. The only question is whether it has been widely seen by Academy members.

Claudia

*Trayvon Martin's murderer absolution

Claudia

It would be surprisingly encouraging if "Fruitvale Station", Forest Whitaker and Melonie Diaz got to be recognised, too. This year was marked by Trayvon Martin's absolution, the fact that young, poor and black Americans still are victims of great discrimination, and, Mandela's death (who had a great influence on U.E Americans). "12 Years", "The Butler", "Fruitvale Station" are different parts (and visions) of this – same – long American history, and from this movies we all had great performances and powerful stories. Art and socio-political issues have always walked side by side. In any case, it is wonderful to recognise more diversity. Nevertheless, this year at least 6/8 actors and actresses from minorities could be nominated among the Best Acting categories, and at least two in the Best Director, but, perhaps, the Academy, as many film critics, are still not ready to see such a large presence, unfortunately.

P.s: I believe Matthew Mcconaughey will be the strongest in this year Best Actor category.

Joe H.

Daniel Bruhl and Tom Hanks both deserve a supporting nod mre than Barkhad Abdi.

Pedro

Cate Blanchett and Lupita all the way!

But in Best Actress category, they must nominate Adele Exarchopoulos, she will bring a fresh air to the Oscars and her performance is miles better than Sandra Bullock's.

@pedropinheiroo

groucho

I hope these predictions are (mostly) right but a little predictable. I wish for some upsets in the nominations, like Adele Exarchopolous or Brie Larson or even Greta Gerwig in the Actress category. Or a Michael B. Jordan in the Actor category; Margo Martindale and Sally Hawkins in the Supporting Actress. From the predicted nominees, it is as though only 20 films were released in 2013. I hope the voters search for the truly illuminating if unheralded films to bestow the Academy honor. Like some love for "Museum Hours", "Ain't Them Bodies Saints", "In a World".

Miguel

You're missing Best Special Effects, which anyway, Gravity will win.

Charles

Looks like a good list/forecast. Nothing surprising, nothing egregious.

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