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2014 Golden Globe Predictions – How Did We Do With The Results Now In? Plus Your Thoughts?

2014 Golden Globe Predictions - How Did We Do With The Results Now In? Plus Your Thoughts?

The 71st Annual Golden Globe Awards aired last night, and I live-tweeted for those who follow S&A on Twitter, who likely saw most of my tweets, whether in frustration or in celebration, and everything between.
Before the event, I shared my thoughts on what black performers and films nominated might win in their respective categories. So how did I do? Well, let’s find out!
Nominations were announced a month ago, in 25 categories. Of note, 12 Years A Slave, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Idris ElbaLupita Nyong’o, Barkhad Abdi, Steve McQueen, John Ridley, Kerry Washington, and Don Cheadle, all received nominations. 
Of special note, Ejiofor and Elba were nominated twice in the exact same categories: best actor in a film (12 Years A Slave and Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom), and best actor in a TV miniseries (Savannah and Luther – an award Idris has won previously, as you can see in the image above).
Surprises? Oprah Winfrey wasn’t nominated for Lee Daniels’ The Butler. In fact, neither was Lee Daniels nominated for best director for directing Lee Daniels’ The Butler.
Without further ado, below you’ll find my predictions in each category below, in bold, accompanied by some brief commentary on my choice. I didn’t include categories in which no black performers or films or TV series were nominated, given this site’s focus. In the categories that I called the winner correctly, I made note of that; in those that I was wrong, I made note of that as well as highlighted who actually won.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
a. 12 YEARS A SLAVE (I just think it’s this year’s critical – and audience – darling, and thus a lock, likely on its way to a Best Picture Oscar as well. I also think it’ll be one of 3 Golden Globes it’ll win – it leads nominations in the film categories with 7, next to AMERICAN HUSTLE, also with 7). 

CALLED IT! Granted it was the only award the film won; I predicted that it would win 3, including Best Supporting Actress and Best Director.
b. CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
c. GRAVITY
d. PHILOMENA
e. RUSH
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
a. CHIWETEL EJIOFOR 12 YEARS A SLAVE
b. IDRIS ELBA MANDELA: LONG WALK TO FREEDOM
c. TOM HANKS CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
d. MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY DALLAS BUYERS CLUB (I think it’s his to lose. His physical transformation and the film’s subject matter help. And it’s just a good performance overall. Can’t beat that combo. I don’t see either Chiwetel or Idris taking this. But if either does surprise me with a win, I’d give the nod to Chiwetel over Idris)

CALLED IT! As I suggested, it was his to lose. This was a no-brainer to me.
e. ROBERT REDFORD ALL IS LOST
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
a. SALLY HAWKINS BLUE JASMINE
b. JENNIFER LAWRENCE AMERICAN HUSTLE (WINNER)
c. LUPITA NYONG’O 12 YEARS A SLAVE (She’s an absolute lock for this, and I think she’ll win the Oscar in this same category as well. If she doesn’t win this weekend, there’ll probably be rioting in the streets. Okay, so maybe not; the point is that, I haven’t seen a single predictions list that doesn’t have her winning the Globe and the Oscar. But we could all be in for a surprise this Sunday. And, oh yeah, her strong performance in 12 YEARS A SLAVE was the highlight of the film. To say she has talent is an understatement)

WRONG! This was easily the most shocking miss of the night. I don’t know anyone who didn’t fully expect Lupita to walk away with this award. I was really surprised and disappointed in the Globes selecting Jennifer Lawrence. To be clear, I think Lawrence is also a good actress. So, as some suggested when I pushed back against this last night, it’s not a career award. I saw both films (AMERICAN HUSTLE and 12 YEARS A SLAVE) and Lupita’s performance in that film was superior to Lawrence’s in AMERICAN HUSTLE. One scene alone nailed it for me – the scene during which Patsey, the character Lupita plays in 12 YEARS A SLAVE pleads with Epps (Michael Fassbender) over a trip she took for a bar of soap to clean herself with, which led to easily the film’s most heart-wrenching scene, which Lupita completely sells us on, as she’s whipped mercilessly by Epps. The expression on her face, and the quivering in her voice, during that sequence was all we needed to see to know what we needed to know. We didn’t eve have to see the actual whipping. And it’s also not a “race thing” as some others suggested. Even if Lupita was also white, and it wasn’t a film about slavery in America, but a similar kind of scene, I would still have given the nod to her over Lawrence. Both good actresses, yes, but in this specific case, which is really all that matters, looking at both performances in both films, Lupita should’ve won.
d. JULIA ROBERTS AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
e. JUNE SQUIBB NEBRASKA
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
a. BARKHAD ABDI CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
b. DANIEL BRÜHL RUSH
c. BRADLEY COOPER AMERICAN HUSTLE
d. MICHAEL FASSBENDER 12 YEARS A SLAVE 
e. JARED LETO DALLAS BUYERS CLUB (This is a tough one, because I think it could go to either Jared Leto or Michael Fassbender, and I think it’ll likely come down to both of them again at the Oscars. Both transformations/performances are strong, but I’m going to give Leto the nod here, if only for the same reasons I think McConaughey will win in the Best Actor category, making it a DALLAS BUYERS CLUB sweep in the male acting categories. Barkhad Abdi did a fine job in CAPTAIN PHILLIPS, but not enough to beat out the competition)

CALLED IT! Also not at all a surprise. Fully expected this.

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
a. ALFONSO CUARÓN GRAVITY (WINNER)
b. PAUL GREENGRASS CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
c. STEVE MCQUEEN 12 YEARS A SLAVE (This is also a tough one, because, given all I’ve read about each of these projects and their directors, any of these choices won’t be a big surprise. However, I think McQueen is still the man of the moment, with a film, considered maybe the most *important* of the year, that’s equally loved by critics and audiences. No divide here)

WRONG! As I noted in my commentary, this was a tough category, because almost any of these directors could’ve won the award. But I gave McQueen the nod because I had 12 YEARS A SLAVE as the winner in the Best Motion Picture Drama category.
d. ALEXANDER PAYNE NEBRASKA
e. DAVID O. RUSSELL AMERICAN HUSTLE

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
a. SPIKE JONZE HER (Yet another tough category, although I’d say the winner will likely be either PHILOMENA, 12 YEARS A SLAVE or AMERICAN HUSTLE. But I’ll go with a potential spoiler, and say that Spike Jonze will win for HER. It’s a film that I hope wins something this weekend, and this is the one category that I think it has the best shot of doing so. It’s nominated in 3 categories. But if John Ridley wins for 12 YEARS A SLAVE, or any of the other nominees wins, I certainly wouldn’t be shocked)

CALLED IT! Many seemed surprised by this. As noted, it was my spoiler for the night. I liked the film. In fact, it’s one of my favorites of the year. I figured it would win at least one of the 3 awards it was nominated for. And this seemed like the most probable.

b. BOB NELSON NEBRASKA
c. JEFF POPE, PHILOMENA
d. JOHN RIDLEY 12 YEARS A SLAVE
e. ERIC WARREN SINGER, AMERICAN HUSTLE
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
a. JULIANNA MARGULIES THE GOOD WIFE (Could this be Kerry Washington’s year? I think competition in this category is tough, and I’m not expecting her to win. BUT if she does, I won’t be shocked either. No Claire Danes this year – she won this category the last 2 years in a row. So I’m going with Margulies, if only because, first, she’s won before, and the Globes seem to like repeat winners; and secondly, it’s rare that an actress wins in this category if the show that she’s nominated for isn’t also nominated in its category. SCANDAL unfortunately isn’t nominated for Best Dramatic TV Series. So, using that argument, Margulies and Robin Wright are likely at the top of the short list. The sleeper here would be Tatiana Maslany. Look out for her)

WRONG! Also a tough category to predict. Some good competition. But I gave the nod the Margulies for the reasons listed above. But, as I also noted, both she and Robin Wright were at the top of the list, and Wright ended up winning, so I came close. Some folks were peeved that Kerry Washington didn’t win. I’ll defer to an argument I’ve made previously and again above, about the show the winning actress in nominated for has to be nominated in its category as well; at least, in the history of the Globes, that’s been the case more often than not. So until SCANDAL becomes a regular nominee in the Dramatic TV Series category (it wasn’t this year), Kerry’s chances of winning will likely always be slim.
b. TATIANA MASLANY ORPHAN BLACK
c. TAYLOR SCHILLING ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK
d. KERRY WASHINGTON SCANDAL
e. ROBIN WRIGHT HOUSE OF CARDS (WINNER)
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
a. JASON BATEMAN ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT
b. DON CHEADLE HOUSE OF LIES (I think this one probably comes down to 2 past winners: Cheadle and Jim Parsons; I’ll give Cheadle the nod however, making it 2 in a row. He won in this category last year)

WRONG! This was a shocker to me! I watched a couple of episodes of BROOKLYN NINE-NINE and just couldn’t get into it at all. Not for me I guess. But clearly, Adam Samberg’s win (the show actually won 2 awards last night) says it’s something to pay attention to. 
c. MICHAEL J. FOX THE MICHAEL J. FOX SHOW
d. JIM PARSONS THE BIG BANG THEORY
e. ANDY SAMBERG BROOKLYN NINE-NINE (WINNER)
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
a. MATT DAMON BEHIND THE CANDELABRA
b. MICHAEL DOUGLAS BEHIND THE CANDELABRA (This one will surely go to either Douglas or Matt Damon; although I think Douglas is probably a lock. This is one of those stories that’s played well – an HBO project that movie studios initially passed on, because they felt it was too risky a project to back as a theatrical play. Plus Steven Soderbergh directed it. So I don’t see Chiwetel or Idris winning here. Although Idris won in this category in 2012)

CALLED IT! Again, a no-brainer for me. I didn’t think Chiwetel or Idris had a shot here at all unfortunately.
c. CHIWETEL EJIOFOR DANCING ON THE EDGE
d. IDRIS ELBA LUTHER
e. AL PACINO PHIL SPECTOR
By the way, the Golden Globes aren’t a 100% predictor of what will happen at the Oscars, although, as I shared on Twitter and Facebook last night, about 70% of the time, Globe winners match Oscar winners. So, more often than not!
We’ll see how close they match this year.

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