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2014 Golden Globe Predictions – What Black Nominees Might Walk Away w/ Trophies This Sunday?

2014 Golden Globe Predictions - What Black Nominees Might Walk Away w/ Trophies This Sunday?

The 71st Annual Golden Globe Awards will air tonight, Sunday, January 12, on NBC, beginning at 8 pm EST/5 pm PST. 

Tina Fey and Amy Poehler are back to co-host the show again
Nominations were announced a month ago, in 25 categories. Of note, 12 Years A Slave, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Idris ElbaLupita Nyong’o, Barkhad Abdi, Steve McQueen, John Ridley, Kerry Washington, and Don Cheadle, all received nominations. 
Of special note, Ejiofor and Elba were nominated twice in the exact same categories: best actor in a film (12 Years A Slave and Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom), and best actor in a TV miniseries (Savannah and Luther – an award Idris has won previously, as you can see in the image above).
Surprises? Oprah Winfrey wasn’t nominated for Lee Daniels’ The Butler. In fact, neither was Lee Daniels nominated for best director for directing Lee Daniels’ The Butler.
Ahead of Sunday’s broadcast, I thought I’d share my predictions for which of the above nominated black actors/actresses, and film, will win in their respective categories.
You’ll find my predictions in each category below, in bold, accompanied by some brief commentary on my choice. I didn’t include categories in which no black performers or films or TV series were nominated, given this site’s focus.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
a. 12 YEARS A SLAVE (I just think it’s this year’s critical – and audience – darling, and thus a lock, likely on its way to a Best Picture Oscar as well. I also think it’ll be one of 3 Golden Globes it’ll win – it leads nominations in the film categories with 7, next to AMERICAN HUSTLE, also with 7)
b. CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
c. GRAVITY
d. PHILOMENA
e. RUSH
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
a. CHIWETEL EJIOFOR 12 YEARS A SLAVE
b. IDRIS ELBA MANDELA: LONG WALK TO FREEDOM
c. TOM HANKS CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
d. MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY DALLAS BUYERS CLUB (I think it’s his to lose. His physical transformation and the film’s subject matter help. And it’s just a good performance overall. Can’t beat that combo. I don’t see either Chiwetel or Idris taking this. But if either does surprise me with a win, I’d give the nod to Chiwetel over Idris)
e. ROBERT REDFORD ALL IS LOST
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
a. SALLY HAWKINS BLUE JASMINE
b. JENNIFER LAWRENCE AMERICAN HUSTLE
c. LUPITA NYONG’O 12 YEARS A SLAVE (She’s an absolute lock for this, and I think she’ll win the Oscar in this same category as well. If she doesn’t win this weekend, there’ll probably be rioting in the streets. Okay, so maybe not; the point is that, I haven’t seen a single predictions list that doesn’t have her winning the Globe and the Oscar. But we could all be in for a surprise this Sunday. And, oh yeah, her strong performance in 12 YEARS A SLAVE was the highlight of the film. To say she has talent is an understatement)
d. JULIA ROBERTS AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
e. JUNE SQUIBB NEBRASKA
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
a. BARKHAD ABDI CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
b. DANIEL BRÜHL RUSH
c. BRADLEY COOPER AMERICAN HUSTLE
d. MICHAEL FASSBENDER 12 YEARS A SLAVE 
e. JARED LETO DALLAS BUYERS CLUB (This is a tough one, because I think it could go to either Jared Leto or Michael Fassbender, and I think it’ll likely come down to both of them again at the Oscars. Both transformations/performances are strong, but I’m going to give Leto the nod here, if only for the same reasons I think McConaughey will win in the Best Actor category, making it a DALLAS BUYERS CLUB sweep in the male acting categories. Barkhad Abdi did a fine job in CAPTAIN PHILLIPS, but not enough to beat out the competition)

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
a. ALFONSO CUARÓN GRAVITY
b. PAUL GREENGRASS CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
c. STEVE MCQUEEN 12 YEARS A SLAVE (This is also a tough one, because, given all I’ve read about each of these projects and their directors, any of these choices won’t be a big surprise. However, I think McQueen is still the man of the moment, with a film, considered maybe the most *important* of the year, that’s equally loved by critics and audiences. No divide here)
d. ALEXANDER PAYNE NEBRASKA
e. DAVID O. RUSSELL AMERICAN HUSTLE

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
a. SPIKE JONZE HER (Yet another tough category, although I’d say the winner will likely be either PHILOMENA, 12 YEARS A SLAVE or AMERICAN HUSTLE. But I’ll go with a potential spoiler, and say that Spike Jonze will win for HER. It’s a film that I hope wins something this weekend, and this is the one category that I think it has the best shot of doing so. It’s nominated in 3 categories. But if John Ridley wins for 12 YEARS A SLAVE, or any of the other nominees wins, I certainly wouldn’t be shocked)

b. BOB NELSON NEBRASKA
c. JEFF POPE, PHILOMENA
d. JOHN RIDLEY 12 YEARS A SLAVE
e. ERIC WARREN SINGER, AMERICAN HUSTLE
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
a. JULIANNA MARGULIES THE GOOD WIFE (Could this be Kerry Washington’s year? I think competition in this category is tough, and I’m not expecting her to win. BUT if she does, I won’t be shocked either. No Claire Danes this year – she won this category the last 2 years in a row. So I’m going with Margulies, if only because, first, she’s won before, and the Globes seem to like repeat winners; and secondly, it’s rare that an actress wins in this category if the show that she’s nominated for isn’t also nominated in its category. SCANDAL unfortunately isn’t nominated for Best Dramatic TV Series. So, using that argument, Margulies and Robin Wright are likely at the top of the short list. The sleeper here would be Tatiana Maslany. Look out for her)
b. TATIANA MASLANY ORPHAN BLACK
c. TAYLOR SCHILLING ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK
d. KERRY WASHINGTON SCANDAL
e. ROBIN WRIGHT HOUSE OF CARDS
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
a. JASON BATEMAN ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT
b. DON CHEADLE HOUSE OF LIES (I think this one probably comes down to 2 past winners: Cheadle and Jim Parsons; I’ll give Cheadle the nod however, making it 2 in a row. He won in this category last year)
c. MICHAEL J. FOX THE MICHAEL J. FOX SHOW
d. JIM PARSONS THE BIG BANG THEORY
e. ANDY SAMBERG BROOKLYN NINE-NINE
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
a. MATT DAMON BEHIND THE CANDELABRA
b. MICHAEL DOUGLAS BEHIND THE CANDELABRA (This one will surely go to either Douglas or Matt Damon; although I think Douglas is probably a lock. This is one of those stories that’s played well – an HBO project that movie studios initially passed on, because they felt it was too risky a project to back as a theatrical play. Plus Steven Soderbergh directed it. So I don’t see Chiwetel or Idris winning here. Although Idris won in this category in 2012)
c. CHIWETEL EJIOFOR DANCING ON THE EDGE
d. IDRIS ELBA LUTHER
e. AL PACINO PHIL SPECTOR
That’s it! My predictions for black actors/films/TV shows that I think could win Golden Globe awards this Sunday.
The 71st Golden Globe Awards will air this Sunday, January 12, on NBC, beginning at 8 pm EST/5 pm PST. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler are back to co-host the show again
What are your predictions?

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