As usual, this first weekend of the new year offered few new movies. The market is packed with awards contenders in varying stages of release, with Oscar-qualifiers that opened last week dominating the action. Most of the awards pictures showed minor drops or even increases. Most of them won’t break wide until next weekend’s Golden Globes weekend and the Oscar nominations the following Thursday. For these films, their results on this crucial weekend reveal how much further they might go.
Four awards pictures that are already in the top 10 will easily top $100 million–“The Wolf of Wall Street,” “American Hustle,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” and animated “Frozen.”
The new premieres were each on a single New York screen–and Takeshi Kitano’s “Beyond Outrage” (Magnolia), which played fall 2012 festivals and has been on video on demand for weeks, and Giuseppe Tornatore’s “The Best Offer” (IFC) didn’t report grosses. The self-distributed “In No Great Hurry: 13 Lessons in Life With Saul Leiter” played on a 90-seat uptown theater and with some reported sellouts took in $6,100, not bad for an unheralded documentary (about a pioneer in color photography).
The two films that opened in just New York and Los Angeles last weekend both had decent holds their second stanzas, looking comparatively better than their initial grosses. “Lone Survivor” (Universal) kept to just two theaters (the Lincoln Square/New York and Arclight Hollywood/Los Angeles), and fell 18%, grossing $83,600, or $43,300 per screen average, which is fairly impressive considering the mixed reviews and the lack of awards attention the film has received. (Peter Berg finally scored a WGA nomination.) “August: Osage County” (Weinstein) held nearly as well, grossing $141,000 in 5 theaters (the same two as “Survivor” and three additional ones, somewhat cutting down the PSA, which was $28,200, down 21% from the first weekend).
Both films thrived during the holiday weekdays and ended up with nearly double their opening weekend grosses for the full week, a sign of decent reaction. At some level, “Lone Survivor”‘s grosses likely show a brighter future ahead as it expands. Both films received mixed reviews, but “August” has grabbed more attention and nominations (SAG, Golden Globes and elsewhere) due to the presence of Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts.
Military-themed films can get initial limited strong openings — “Zero Dark Thirty” last year, “Black Hawk Down” much earlier — but both those films boasted strong reviews and cross-over appeal to core upscale audiences. “Lone Survivor” didn’t have that heft behind it, yet still head to head seems to be the equal so far of “August.” As both films expand wide next weekend, don’t be surprised if “Lone Survivor” has the higher gross, at least initially, with heartland American audiences being more attuned to its themes than the complex appeal of “August.” The latter still has some chance at some Oscars and other awards, and with the Weinstein Company behind it, expect every marketing tool available to be utilized to enhance its box office chances.
The top grosser among the older limited releases was “Philomena” (also Weinstein), which has had extensive, but not yet maximum, play. This is an example of a Weinstein awards release that hits all the buttons with older audiences and is timed to maximize its Oscar attention. It took in another $1,552,000 this weekend in 607 theaters (-120), with its gross falloff of 12% combined with the loss of theaters meaning its PSA of $2,557 acrually increased. It is already up to $19.7 million, with Weinstein planning an even wider general release later this month after its very likely Best Actress nomination for Judi Dench and hoped-for placement in Best Picture. All of this has come with a higher than level marketing expense for this level of gross, but they are in it for the long haul, with hoped for benefits including a much greater ultimate total. Don’t be surprised if this ends up outgrossing “Blue Jasmine,” starring frontrunner Cate Blanchett, though this would largely be due to the later release (“Jasmine” released in the summer didn’t have the advantage of piggy-backing off awards).
But two more recent contenders playing in far fewer theaters had even more impressive showings. Yesterday’s big winner at the National Society of FIlm Critics, “Inside Llewyn Davis” (CBS) in 156 theaters (-5) did $1,175,000 (-6%), PSA $7,532, total of $6,987,000 so far. This is already getting close to the Coen Brothers’ previous limited release, “A Serious Man,” and irrespective of its Oscar future (CBS is pushing hard, with multiple full page ads running in the LA and NY Times this week while the nomination voting is occurring) this should easily outdistance that film’s total.
Outpacing all of these in PSA was “Her” (Warner Bros.), which sticking to 47 theaters grossed $722,000, significantly up 11% from last weekend. The PSA was an outstanding (for this number of theaters) $15,362. Spike Jonze’s alternative rom-com is not an automatic sell, despite its great reviews, but this performance shows that word of mouth is catching up to the critics and positions it well for its wide national release this week. It has grossed just under $3 million so far.
“Nebraska” (Paramount) has taken a much slower road to expansion, so far peaking at 310 runs pre-Christmas. It’s expected to go much wider post-nominations (where it should be among the leaders). Alexander Payne’s film grossed $670,000 in 240 theaters (-10), PSA a more modest $2,792, now at $7,055,000 total. This was down only 10% from last weekend.
Both of Sony Pictures Classics’ year-end releases are lagging behind what its awards contenders usually do. The French/Iranian “The Past” added 2 theaters to gross $40,200 in 5, PSA $8,040, significantly behind what director Asghar Farhadi’s “The Separation” did two years ago. Ralph Fiennes’ “The Invisible Woman” is also struggling, with $30,200 in 4 (+1) for a PSA of $7,550. The positive news for both films is that their grosses held steady, even if below expectations, so both should see some growth ahead as they expand.
Other longer-run films with grosses over $50,000 included “The Book Thief” (20th Century Fox), still showing life with another $543,000 in 329 (-159), total now $19.1 million. “12 Years a Slave” (Fox Searchlight) remains poised to return after the nominations, but added $326,000 in 151 (-3), down only 13%, and already up to $38.5 million. PGA and WGA nominee “Dallas Buyers Club” (Focus) actually grew 10%, with a gross of $306,000 in 128 theaters (+4), now at $16.3 million. “All Is Lost” added another $55,000 and is now at $6,055,000 total.