For Your Consideration: Final 2014 Oscar Nomination Predictions

For Your Consideration: Final 2014 Oscar Nomination Predictions

In just under 48 hours, months and months of speculation will finally come to a close when the 86th Academy Award nominations are announced. Though various precursors (BAFTA, the Globes, the guild awards, the critics groups, etc) have narrowed things down considerably, the Academy’s recent tendencies to go their own way here and there hopefully will offer us a few welcome surprises come Thursday morning.

One thing that is fairly certain is the three films that are set to lead the nominations overall: Steve McQueen’s “12 Years a Slave,” Alfonso Cuarón’s “Gravity” and David O. Russell’s “American Hustle.” They have rarely failed to manage impressive support from pretty much all of the precursors, and if any of them miss out on best picture or best director (or have overall nomination counts under 8), it would be a big shock. Which films join them in the best picture race will be a lot more interesting. Alexander Payne’s “Nebraska,” Martin Scorsese’s “The
Wolf of Wall Street” and Paul Greengrass’s “Captain Phillips” are
looking pretty solid in that regard, but then it gets a
lot more hazy. We don’t know how many nominations there will be,
after all, though the remaining 0-4 slots seem to be a battle among 6
films: Woody Allen’s “Blue Jasmine,” Joel & Ethan Coen’s “Inside
Llewyn Davis,” Spike Jonze’s “Her,” John Lee Hancock’s “Saving Mr.
Banks,” Jean-Marc Vallee’s “Dallas Buyers Club” and Stephen Frears’
“Philomena.”  For the sake of mixing things up, we’re betting there will
only be 8 nominees this year (there were 9 the previous two years), with “Her” and “Philomena” joining the aforementioned six
nearly sure things.

The acting races should be equally interesting.  Best actor, in particular, is probably more stacked than its been in a decade, with Robert Redford, Chiwetel Ejiofer, Matthew McConaughey, Tom Hanks,
Leonardo DiCaprio, Bruce Dern, Oscar Isaac, Forest Whitaker, Christian
Bale and Joaquin Phoenix all offering performances that in any
other year would arguably be certainties for nominations. But this year, it’s
gonna be tough.  As for best actress, it’s considerably less competitive with six women aiming for five slots. But that still makes things interesting. Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, Judi Dench and Emma Thompson certainly seem like sure things, though who joins them — Amy Adams or Meryl Streep — will be a mystery to the last minute.

The past month of non-stop precursors have certainly made their stamps on the race and have given us some clear suggestions in all of the acting races. If an actor doesn’t end up with at least one nomination from the Globes, BAFTA, SAG or the Critics Choice, there’s a very slim chance they’ll end up with an Oscar nomination. Though ask Jacki Weaver how she feels about that slim chance. She’s the only one that beat it last year when she ended up with an Oscar nomination for “Silver Linings Playbook.” Or, Marion Cotillard, for that matter, who was nominated for all four and then didn’t end up making it to Oscar’s shortlist. The year before, there was also one actor (Max von Sydow) made the cut without a SAG, Globe, BAFTA or Critics Choice nod, while Tilda Swinton did not despite getting all of them. If that trend continues this year, I’d bet — for what it’s worth — that Jonah Hill (“The Wolf of Wall Street”) is the one who makes it in without any of those precursors. His film broke very late in the game, and he’s been campaigning aggressively ever since. He’s also pretty fantastic in “Wolf.”

So then who falls out? The following folks managed nods from all 4 organizations: Bruce Dern, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Tom Hanks, Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, Judi Dench, Emma Thompson, Barkhad Abdi, Daniel Bruhl, Michael Fassbender, Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong’o. The predictions below suggest Daniel Bruhl as the sole Oscar exclusion from that group. More over, they also suggest “12 Years a Slave” would lead the nomination count with 12, while “American Hustle” takes 10 and “Captain Phillips” and “Gravity” each take 9.  Take a read through and feel free to add your own predictions in the comments section.  You can also find more extensive commentary on each individual category, click
here.

Best Picture:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

If There’s a 9th Nominee: Dallas Buyers Club
If There’s a 10th Nominee: Saving Mr. Banks
The Spoiler Nominee: Inside Llewyn Davis
Pretty Please: Before Midnight
Winner Prediction: 12 Years a Slave


Best Director:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze, Her
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle

The Spoiler Nominee: Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Pretty Please: Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Winner Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity


Best Actress:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench
, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

The Spoiler Nominee: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Pretty Please: Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color
Winner Prediction: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Best Actor:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

The Spoiler Nominee: Robert Redford, All Is Lost (or Christian Bale, American Hustle — this is gonna be tight)
Pretty Please: Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Winner Prediction: Bruce Dern, Nebraska


Best Supporting Actress:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

The Spoiler Nominee: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Pretty Please: Scarlett Johannson, Her
Winner Prediction: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Best Supporting Actor:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Barkhad Adbi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

The Spoiler Nominee: Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Pretty Please: James Franco, Spring Breakers
Winner Prediction: Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Best Original Screenplay:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
David O. Russell & Eric Singer, American Hustle

The Spoiler Nominee: Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said
Pretty Please: Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Winner Prediction: David O. Russell & Eric Singer, American Hustle

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
Bill Ray, Captain Phillips
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

The Spoiler Nominee: Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
Pretty Please: Abdellatif Kechiche & Ghalia Lacroix, Blue is the Warmest Color
Winner Prediction: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave


Best Foreign Language Film:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Notebook (Hungary)

The Spoiler Nominee: Omar (Palestine)
Pretty Please: That Wadjda and The Past had made the shortlist, but that’s a moot point now.
Winner Prediction: The Great Beauty (Italy)

Best Documentary Feature:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
The Act of Killing
The Crash Reel

The Square
Stories We Tell
Twenty Feet From Stardom

The Spoiler Nominee: Blackfish
Pretty Please: Cutie and the Boxer
Winner Prediction: Stories We Tell


Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):

Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises

The Spoiler Nominee: The Croods
Pretty Please: N/A
Winner Prediction: Frozen

Best Cinematography:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):

Sean Bobbitt, 12 Years a Slave
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska
Roger Deakins, Prisoners

The Spoiler Nominee: Barry Ackroyd, Captain Phillips
Pretty Please: Hoyte Van Hoytema, Her
Winner Prediction: Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity

Best Film Editing:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Joe Walker, 12 Years a Slave
Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers, American Hustle
Christopher Rouse, Captain Phillips

Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger, Gravity
Jeff Buchanan & Eric Zumbrunnen, Her

The Spoiler Nominee: Thelma Shoonmaker, The Wolf of Wall Street
Pretty Please: Roderick Jaynes, Inside Llewyn Davis
Winner Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger, Gravity

Best Production Design:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Adam Stochausen & Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Judy Becker & Heather Loeffler, American Hustle
Catherine Martin & Beverly Dunn, The Great Gatsby

Jess Gonchor & Susan Bode, Inside Llewyn Davis
Michael Corenblith & Susan Benjamin, Saving Mr. Banks

The Spoiler Nominee: Andy Nicholson & Rosie Goodwin, Gravity
Pretty Please: Julie Berghoff & Sophie Neudorfer, The Conjuring
Winner Prediction: Adam Stochausen & Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave

Best Costume Design:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Patricia Norris, 12 Years a Slave
Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby

Michael O’Connor, The Invisible Woman
Daniel Orlandi, Saving Mr. Banks

The Spoiler Nominee: Mary Zophres, Inside Llewyn Davis
Pretty Please: François Barbeau & Xavier Dolan, Laurence Anyways
Winner Prediction: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle


Best Original Score:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave

Alex Ebert, All Is Lost
Henry Jackman, Captain Phillips
Steven Price, Gravity
Alexandre Desplat, Philomena

The Spoiler Nominee: John Williams, The Book Thief
Pretty Please: William Butler & Owen Pallett, Her
Winner Prediction: Steven Price, Gravity

Best Original Song:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
“Amen” (All Is Lost)
“Let It Go” (Frozen)
“The Moon Song” (Her)
“Ordinary Love” (Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom)
“Young and Beautiful” (The Great Gatsby)

The Spoiler Nominee: “Sweeter Than Fiction” (One Chance)
Pretty Please: “So You Know What It’s Like” (Short Term 12)
Winner Prediction: “Let It Go” (Frozen)

Best Sound Mixing:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips

Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Rush

The Spoiler Nominee: Lone Survivor
Winner Prediction: Gravity

Best Sound Editing:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Rush

The Spoiler Nominee: Pacific Rim
Winner Prediction: Gravity

Best Visual Effects:
Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Gravity
The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
World War Z

The Spoiler Nominee: Iron Man 3
Winner Prediction: Gravity


Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

Predicted Nominees (in alphabetical order):
American Hustle
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

The Spoiler Nominee: Dallas Buyers Club
Winner Prediction: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa


Peter Knegt is Indiewire’s Senior Writer and awards columnist. Follow him on Twitter.

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Comments

R.A.

WOW! YOU ARE GOOD AT PREDICTING THE OSCARS!

Ans

SO happy for Sally Hawkins too!

Ans

Wow Peter Knegt, you were pretty much spot on! Sad about Daniel Bruhl getting snubbed though. Also not happy about 4/4 acting nominations for American Hustle. There is way too much support for this hit-and-miss mess of a film.
And now we all must say "two-time Academy Award nominee, Jonah Hill". Who knew?

Ross

Daniel Bruhl is more of a lock than Jonah Hill or Bradley Cooper, and a possible winner as well. The only thing that could count against him is that Rush is fairly unlikely to be nominated in many other categories

C

I would be disappointed if Frozen really gets picked over The Wind Rises. As much as I love Disney and Ghibli equally, Frozen came nowhere near what the classics did. It was a good film, but it wasn't a great one, and I found myself getting over it after one night. The Wind Rises, on the other hand, still has me thinking back to certain scenes within the film.

Amanda

I'm really hoping one Bruce dern to win best actor but
Chitwetel did an amazing performance in 12 years a slave

Sydney Irene

I feel like due to the graphic content of Wolf of Wall Street, Dicaprio will get snubbed yet again despite his remarkable performance and incorporation of his earlier characters to perfect his performance. Plus the industry hates to correct itself and prove it was wrong in ignoring him when he was in prior nominations.

pinky

Wow, I wouldn't be surprised if these predictions weren't 100% correct. And that's what's sad about the Oscars: so damn predictable.

Guest

I have a weird feeling dicaprio might just win this year.and lol cooper really?leto's got this in the bag american hustle is overrated anyway

Lucille

It's a shame that the excellent performances by Hugh Jackman in Prisoners and Brie Larson in Short Term 12 have been completely ignored this awards season.

lyta

i love that this year, except only in the supporting actor, where Leto is pretty much a lock, even though i do like Cooper´s perfomance better than Fassbender (i just think that they are compensay him for the Shame snubb). the supporting actreess i would like to see Lawrence take it, i´m convence with Lupita as an actor yet, she is so new then i don´t know she is worthy of the oscar yet. and Lawrence is the force of American Hustle.
in the lead actrees if Amy Adams get the nomination i want her to win. Cate Blanchett has her oscar, and she suffer the snubb when they give the oscar to Gwyneth Paltrow insted of her, Amy has lost 4 times already, and the perfomance is great, not so suffer like Blanchett´s but equaly great.
in the actor i hope that they nominated Leonardo, because i think that for now Matthew is the front runner, but i just couldn´t live in a world where Matthew gets the oscar for his first nominations, when he has only done decent movies for the past 3 yeas, and Leonardo DiCaprio who is probably the greates actor of our time, has been doing wonderfull films for more than a decade now, still don´t get the Oscar. The wolf is a really good movie, and a side from him as an actor that we have not seeing. Matthew still i think is a little away from the statue, and need to prove that he didn´t only do the movie for getting the oscar, but his career is taking a new direction.
btw i love seeing actors that normally are considered sexiest men alive, or bachelors or what ever, like Bradley, Matthew, Michael and Leo showing that they look can help but can also be amazing and wonderfull actors.

Joe H.

I'll be annoyed if Ejiofor doesn't win. He was robbed at the Globes. There is nothing better than his performance in 12 Years a Slave, should go without saying…

Mitch

Why is Bradley Cooper the predicted winner for Best Supporting Actor? I thought Jared Leto was a lock.

Don Moore

What! no predictions for the shorts??!!!!

Demond

It would be Really Bad Ass If Scarlett Johannson & Joaquin Phoenix Scored Nominations fo "HER." I'm sure Spike Jonze is a Lock For Best Original Screenplay & Best Director.

Ashley

Adele Exarchopoulos pretty please….

Dan

If Bradley Cooper wins Best Supporting Actor I will collapse…in horror. It should be Michael Fassbender for his magnificent performance in 12 Years but probably going to be Leto. I also hope you are wrong about Bruce Dern, though it is a great performance, him actually winning would feel like an overall career award, for me you cannot ignore Chiwetel Elijifor's extraordinarily powerful performance.

Truthgiver

"Pretty Please: Scarlett Johannson, Her"

Your so cool and off beat….

corvo

Bradley Cooper???? Seriously??? Jared Leto will win!

Stanley Theroux

Best Cinematography snubs:

Only God Forgives (love it or hate it you can't deny its one of the most beautiful films of the modern era)

Stoker

Spring Breakers

Kyle

I don't hold as much confidence in "Philomena" as I do with "Inside Llewyn Davis" for Best Picture. "Philomena" just doesn't have many nominations this season outside of Actress and Adapted Screenplay. And while, I know critics don't have a say in Oscar nominations, "Llewyn Davis" has been all over the place, even winning some, including AFI, so I think "Philomena" is tied for 9th/10th spots with "Saving Mr. Banks" and "Dallas Buyers Club", and "Llewyn Davis" in 8th or 7th. Just my thoughts.

Duane

Are we kidding here with the Bradley Cooper for Best Supporting Actor? That's so random. Definitely Leto or Fassbender.

Raul

I think if Leonardo DiCaprio is nominated he will probably win, and the same with Amy Adams. Adams may take it from Blanchett for being a four-time loser starring in a best picture frontrunner. I love that pretty much all the major categories are competitive this year. As much as I don't think the Academy wants to recognize Jennifer Lawrence again, there doesn't seem to be an actress giving her a lot of competition this year. I do hope it's Lupita Nyong'o or even June Squibb. And one last thing, "And the Academy Award goes to…"Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa!"

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