2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Director

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Indiewire will provide regular updates of our predictions for the
86th Academy Awards through March 2nd, when the winners are
announced.

Here’s our take on the best director category, which seems to be a little less of a question mark than best picture. While "American Hustle," "Gravity" and "12 Years a Slave" are battling it out for that prize, "Gravity" director Alfonso Cuaron has assumed frontrunner status here. Though definitely don’t count out Steve McQueen or David O. Russell.

Nominees and predictions below. Check out all predictions in all the categories here.

The nominees:
“American Hustle” David O. Russell
“Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón
“Nebraska” Alexander Payne
“12 Years a Slave” Steve McQueen
“The Wolf of Wall Street” Martin Scorsese

Will win: “Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón
Could win: "12 Years a Slave" Steve McQueen
Should win: “Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón
Shoulda been here: "Inside Llewyn Davis"

Check out all predictions in all the categories here.

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Comments

JD

Will Win- Alfonso Cuarón "Gravity"
Could Win- Steve McQueen "12 Years a Slave''
Should Win- McQueen "12 Years a Slave'' (but I'd be okay with Cuarón)
Should be here- Spike Jonze "Her"
Should not be here- Martin Scorsese “The Wolf of Wall Street”

Nicholas Guy

It has to be Cuaron. That film has the most beautiful flow, the performance are great and some of the shots are awe-inspiring.

Ivan

I like Gravity, because it's different then other movies I watched lately. On the other hand I like also that it lasts 90 minutes. Additional 10 minutes would be exhausting. My favorite is Scorsese, he made a really good movie and this 180 minutes passed very quickly. I wouldn't be disappointed even with McQueen. Still, I think that Russel will take it (together with best movie, best supporting actress, screenplay etc.)- not because it deserves it, but when you see Adams in nominees (and not Thompson). Cooper (and not Bruhl or Harrison Ford for 42),…If they had a chance, would nominate them also in animated movies.

Ivan

just a question, Inside Llewyn Davis should have been there instead of which movie?

Laut

Shoulda Been Here: Spike Jonze for Her.

dan

Steve McQueen could and should win Best Director, I mean he just destroyed it with 12 Years A Slave.

Dylan

My Nominations (Best Director):
Alfonso Cuaron – GRAVITY
David O. Russell – AMERICAN HUSTLE
Joel & Ethan Coen – INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
Ryan Coogler – FRUITVALE STATION
Spike Jonze – HER

Brett

If the Academy decided to expand the other major awards (like this one) to ten nominees, my top 10 picks here would be:
The Coen Brothers
Martin Scorsese
David O. Russell
Spike Jonze
"Steve McQueen"
Alfonso Cuaron
Ron Howard
Paul Grengrass
Alexander Payne
Woody Allen

Des Brown

Paul Greengrass, Steve McQueen, Martin Scorsese, David O. Russell and Alfonso Cuaron are the five nominees at the DGA and for BAFTA's Best Director prize. I expect the Academy to be the same. Cuaron is the early favourite to lift the prize. If McQueen were to win it would be a historic moment in the history of the Academy and British filmmaking. Heard him interviewed on BBC Radio last night and, apparently, 12 Years A Slave was shot in just 35 days. I can see McQueen winning the BAFTA but Cuaron winning the Oscar.

Anthony D.

The nominees will be:

Martin Scorsese
David O. Russell
Paul Greengrass
Steve McQueen
Alfonso Cuaron

I expect it to exactly mirror the DGA this year. The only possible difference I could see is Greengrass falling short in favor of either the Coens or Alexander Payne (both of which I feel deserve it more than him, so it could just be my own bias saying that). The winner will be, in a historic fashion, Steve McQueen. I do not know that 12 Years A Slave wins Best Picture, however.

Mexicano

Leaving behind my national feelings, which would make me vote for Alfonso Cuaron, I think the winner should be Ron Howard for Rush or Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine. We know Howard/Allen don't have real chances to win. Then, my favorite to win is Cuaron.
If the world was fair, Paolo Sorrentino for The Great Beauty and Amat Escalante for Heli would be nominated, but that is impossible.

My update:
1. Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine.
2. Ron Howard for Rush.
3. Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity.
4. Abdellatif Kechiche for Blue is the Warmest Color.
5. Richard Linklaker for Before Midnight -is not happening-
Then, the Fifth spot would be for 12 years a Slave

jasper

I honestly don't know what David O. Russell has to do to actually win an Oscar.

Brett

1. Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
3. Martin Scorsese for Wolf of Wall Street
4. Joel & Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis
5. David O. Russell for American Hustle
6. Ron Howard for Rush
7. Spike Jonze for Her
8. Alexander Payne for Nebraska
9. Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine
10. Lee Daniels for The Butler
11. John Lee Hancock for Saving Mr. Banks
12. Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips

erik393

Cuaron, McQueen and Russell seem to be locks right now but I wouldn't be surprised if Russell got bumped for someone else. Greengrass should not be nominated for this. While Captain Phillips was a really good movie, these other films were better. It's hard to see Scorsese's name on the top 5 now after the backlash his film has gotten by certain people. But Wolf of Wall Street is great. I think it'll be…
1. Cuaron
2. McQueen
3. Russell
4. John Lee Hancock (the voters love a good happy family film)
5. Spike Jonze

People say this'll be the closest part of the Oscar race (the directors) once the final 5 are chosen but I might have to disagree. While I am certain 12 Years A Slave will win the best picture award, I'm almost certain Alfonso Cuaron will win for Gravity. Look at everything he's done in that film. It's one of the best of the year and something unique that you really don't see but once every decade.

Evan

Scorsese should definitely be a lock, still don't know why Greengrass is getting all this attention

FilmFan

Scorsese, Allen, coen brothers, not in need of another nod give it to Steve and spike and cuaron great directors getting good work. I'm i only one think American hustle getting snubbed in EVERYTHING hair makeup is its strongest win chances.

BOO

As much as I don't care for David O Russell to get nominated, he will. Jones and Payne are the ones who are battling to get in, maybe even the Coens, and I'd consider Scorsese the #5 spot.

Bob

Updated List

Predicted Top 10

1) 12 Years a Slave
2) Gravity
3) American Hustle
4) The Wolf of Wall Street
5) Her
6) Nebraska
7) Saving Mr.Banks
8. Captain Phillips
9) Inside Llewyn Davis
10) Dallas Buyers Club

Real Threats that Could Enter the Top 10

11) Blue Jasmine
12) Philomena
13) Fruitvale Station

Possibles

14) Lee Daniel's The Butler
15) August: Osage County
16) All is Lost

Long Shots

17) Rush
18. Mud
19) Before Midnight
20) Enough Said

Best Director

1) Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
2) Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
3) David O. Russel – American Hustle
4) Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
5) Alexander Payne – Nebraska

Runner ups

6) Spike Jonze – Her
7) Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
8. John Lee Hancock – Saving Mr.Banks

Best Actor (Pretty damn strong year; only surefire nominees are Ejiofor and McConaughey honestly)

Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Christian Bale – American Hustle

Real Threats/Runner ups

Robert Redford – All is Lost
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips

Possibles

Joaquin Phoenix – Her
Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis
Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Emma Thomphson – Saving Mr.Banks
Judi Dench – Philomena
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County
Sandra Bullock – Gravity

Runner ups

Amy Adams – American Hustle
Brie Larson – Short Term 12

Best Supporting Actor

Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
Daniel Bruhl – Rush
Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips

Runner ups

Tom Hanks – Saving Mr.Banks
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle

Best Supporting Actress

Lupita Nyong'o – 12 Years a Slave
Jenifer Lawrence – American Hustle
June Squibb – Nebraska
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniel's The Butler

Bard

Best Director will go to Alfsonso Cuaron. Other nominees would be Steve McQueen, David O. Russel en Spike Jonze for sure and possibly Martin Scorsese

BOO

As much as I loved Her, American Hustle is a huge contender and probably will not miss this. Also wow, Nebraska not a lock. Nebraska a maybe. Scorsese replace him.

Brett

Put Ron Howard back on this list!!

Aliya

Abdellatif Kechiche definitely deserves a nomination for Blue is the warmest colour. Shocked he's not been included in other lists or award nominations.

Brett

1. "Steve McQueen" for 12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
3. Joel & Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Martin Scorsese for Wolf of Wall Street
5. Ron Howard for Rush
6. Alexander Payne for Nebraska
7. Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine
8. John Lee Hancock for Saving Mr. Banks
9. Lee Daniels for The Butler
10. Spike Jonze for Her
11. David O. Russell for American Hustle
12. Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips

Jack

Miyazaki should definitely be put under Long Shot, but honestly I think there is a very good chance he could get a nomination if only because it is his last film.

I expect the nominations to be

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
2. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
3. Alexander Payne, Nebraska
4. Spike Jonze, Her
5. Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

Brett

Scorsese is my favorite director and I'm pretty sure Wolf of Wall Street will be good, but I really don't think that movie would be worth a directing nomination, he's pretty much directing a biopic version of Get Him to the Greek, and would anybody be talking about this Scorsese picture as much as other ones like Raging Bull (which is overrated), Taxi Driver, Goodfellas, Hugo, Casino, The Aviator, and The Departed?

JC

1. Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
3. Alexander Payne for Nebraska
4. David O'Russell for American Hustle
5. Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips

I wouldn't be surprised if Scorsese doesn't make it onto the list.

Brett

1. Martin Scorsese for Wolf of Wall Street
2. "Steve McQueen" for 12 Years a Slave
3. Joel and Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
5. Ron Howard for Rush
6. Alexander Payne for Nebraska
7. JC Chandor for All is Lost
8. Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine
9. John Lee Hancock for Saving Mr. Banks
10. David O. Russell for American Hustle
11. Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips
12. Lee Daniels for The Butler

Bob

I can see…

1) Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
2) Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
3) Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
4) Joel & Ethan Cohen – Inside Llewyn Davis
5) Alexander Payne – Nebraska

Runner ups that could easily sneak in

6) David O. Russel – American Hustle
7) Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
8) Spike Jonze – Her

Juha Tapani

Cuaron all the way. And Lisa….Why is it shocker all men again??? Which movie this year directed by female is worth of a nomination? Just asking. I have not seen even one this year.

Brett

Ron Howard needs to be put back on this list

Lisa

Shocker. All men. Again.

T

I wish Richard Linklater would be among the nominees for Before Midnight, but I won't hold my breath. In the same vein as Peter Jackson for LOTR, he really deserves to be recognized for the "Before trilogy"…though there will hopefully be more to come. They are special films, even more so when considered together. He is such a great director! Other hopes: Alexander Payne, Alfonso Cuaron, Woody Allen (probably Cohen Brothers, Scorcese and steve mcqueen-but I haven't seen these films)

WS

Only god forgives deserves a nomination, but alas the critics gutted the feature and completely dismissed the formal mastery of this incendiary masterpiece.

Mxicano

1. Ron Howard for Rush
2. Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
3. Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine
4. Steve McQueen for 12 years a slave
5. Abdellatif Kechiche for Blue is the warmest colour.

Mirko

I thinks an nomination to John Lee Hancock for Saving Mr Banks.

Brett

1. Martin Scorsese for Wolf of Wall Street
2. "Steve McQueen" for 12 Years a Slave
3. Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips
4. Joel and Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Ron Howard for Rush
6. Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
7. David O. Russell for American Hustle (say that 3 times fast)
8. John Lee Hancock for Saving Mr. Banks
9. Lee Daniels for The Butler
10. Alexander Payne for Nebraska
11. Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine
12. Peter Berg for Lone Survivor

Oscarfan

Ron Howard needs to be put back on this list! He directed Rush so well! I don't see any reason to bring him out of the running, usually the Academy never ignores him (except Cinderella Man for some strange reason)

K.W.

My Top 10 (combination of what I've seen and predictions)
1. Steve McQueen
2. Alfonso Cuaron
3. Abdellatif Kechiche
4. Joel & Ethan Coen
5. Martin Scorsese
6. Derek Cianfrance
7. Paul Greengrass
8. Terrence Malick
9. Lars von Trier
10. J.C. Chandor

Academy Predicted Noms.

Joel & Ethan Coen
Alfonso Cuaron
Paul Greengrass
Steve McQueen
Martin Scorsese
(Possibles)
Woody Allen
Ryan Coogler (Behn Zeitlin got his, Coogler must get one as well)
Alexander Payne
David O. Russell

r.

Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Richard Linklater (Before Midnight)
Abdellatif Kechiche (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)
Joel Coen, Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davies)

Brett

How come Rush is out of the running? I don't mind much if it's not nominated for Best Picture, but the Academy never ignores Ron Howard he should get a director nomination

Dawlish

Cuaron deserves this, I will always feel that he was cheated for "Children of men". HE DIRECTED AN AMAZING STORY, TOLD IT BEAUTIFULLY AND DID IT ALL THE WAY WITH STUNNING VISUALS AND CINEMATOGRAPHY – HE HAS TO WIN!!!!!!!!

WHAT IS IT WITH THE ACADEMY???? GUILLERMO( SORRY FOR THE SPELLING) DEL TORO SHOULD HAVE WON FOR PAN AND CUARON SHOULD HAVE WON FOR CHILDREN, BOTH MOVIES CHANGED MY PERCEPTION OF CINEMA AND WERE DEFINETLY EXCELLENT MOVIES

Brett

Actually Steff, early reviews for The Blind Side weren't that great either, so maybe the same could go for Walter Mitty

Bob

Update

Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
Spike Jonze – Her
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Runner ups

Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
Joel & Ethan Cohen – Inside Llewyn Davis

The Brady Critic

Will win:Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

might win: Steve McQueen, 12 years of slave

should win: martin Scorsese, the wolf of wall street

Brett

If there's going to be 12 (Because 12 Years a Slave) My picks are:
Martin Scorsese
Coen Brothers
Ben Stiller
"Steve McQueen"
David O. Russell
Paul Greengrass
John Lee Hancock
Alexander Payne
Woody Allen
George Clooney
Lee Daniels
Alfonso Cuaron

Brett

Where's Ben Stiller?

Bob

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
Joel & Ethan Cohen – Inside Llewyn Davis
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Runner up

Spike Jonze – Her

Josh

I bet come February there will be a split like last year between the winners of best pic and director – Cuaron wins best director, 12 Years will win best picture.

BOO

I feel like you're underestimating Wolf of Wall Street. All of Scorsese's past films since 2000 besides Shutter Island have gotten a LOT of Oscar nominations and wins, all getting picture and director.

Mexicano

If I was member of The Academy I would vote:
1. Poncho Cuaron – Gravity
2. Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine
3. Ron Howard – Rush
4. Abdellatif Kechiche – Blue is the warmest color
5. Ashgar Faradio – Le passe

But I am not member of the Academy =( and some of them will probably be replaced by Steve McQueen, Martin Scorcese, the overrated Cohens or the "stupid-face of puke when Emmanuelle Riva wins" David O. Russell.

johnny b goode

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
2. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
3. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
4. David O. Russell, American Hustle
5. George Clooney, The Monuments Men

Josh

I really can't see Saving Mr Banks competing in this or the Best Picture category. I bet it will be alot like last year's Hitchcock. A movie about a movie, with great performances but average in all other aspects.

Brett

What about Joseph Gordon Levitt for Don Jon

Brett

Where's Alexander Payne for Nebraska?

Will

I'd really like to see Derek Cianfrance for The Place Beyond The Pines on here. It got its wide release this year and nothing else this year has even come close to it in my opinion.

Brett

Steve Mcqueen is alive? Does that mean Jimmy Stewart is resurrected as well?

OSS 117

The Coen's will have a run for their money in the directorial department.

BOO

I'd replace Paul Greengrass with Scorsese.

Giamboni

Possibility nomination for John Lee Hancock, if Saving Mr Banks is very beautiful. In my opinion this film wins the Oscar original score.

Brett

If the Academy decided to nominate 12 (Because 12 Years a Slave) my picks would be:
1.Steve Mcqueen (12 Years a Slave)
2.Scorsese (Wolf of Wall Street)
3.Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine
4.Paul Greengrass(Captain Phillips)
5.John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr.Banks)
6.Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
7.Ben Stiller (Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
8.Ron Howard (Rush)
9.Lee Daniels (The Butler)
10.David O.Russell (American Hustle)
11.Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
12.The Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis)

jjules

Paul Greengrass should be nowhere near this list.

Mexicano

Great!! A Mexicano leading the buzz… It didn't happened since Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu with Babel.
Hopefully Cuaron will be luckier than Alejandro, his brother Carlos, Del Toro, Arriaga, Hayek, Bichir, Lubezki or Adriana Barraza and he will finally bring that Oscar to Mexico. This year, a young Mexicano director won Best Director in Cannes for Heli. So I hope Heli will be in the 5 nominees to Best Foreign Language Film (For the second consecutive year a Mexicano director won Cannes), which certainly be leaded by Le Passe -unless France sends the wrong film again and chooses Blue is the Warmest Colour-.

My list:
1. Alfonso Cuaron
2. Woody Allen
3. Martin Scorcese
4. Ashgar Farhadi
5. Bil Condon
6. John Wells
7. John Lee Hancock

Patrick from Baltimore

After seeing Blue Jasmine last night, there are two spots that should be locks. Cate Blanchett at Best Actress and Woody Allen for Director. Blanchetts portrayal in that movie is simply the best acting performance I have ever seen by a woman on film in a theater. Her break down after a bad divorce is legendary and having Woody be the one to help her to push her over the edge NEEDS to be acknowledged. I am not a Woody Allen fan. In my opinion, his work is extremely over rated. But he deserves credit for helping develop and pull this character out on to the screen. It would be a sad omission if he is left off the nominee list come next year!

Embar

It's embarrassing how you guys have no faith in anything until other critics start loving it…. i.e. Gravity. This should have been at the top of your heavyweights in about 12 categories the moment it was announced.

M

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
2. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
4. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

Runner up: Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station

BOO

I don't know why you're moving down Monuments Men.

Mirko

I don't know if John Lee Hancock in nomination. It must to see Saving Mr bnks all.

noob

You are likely so wrong about Paul Greengrass and Captain Phillips. A movie starring Tom Hanks with success? What are the odds? Bad predictions.

BOO

I have a feeling McQueen won't make it here because the film will not be as accessible as it seems.

#blessed

But David O'Russell already has this win in the bag. Like, there's no debate so you can guys literally not with all these lists. Idiots.

oscar

and lee Daniels not on the list because come on form everyone in that movie it him deserve it and he's been nominated before.

Mexicano

Peter, your blog is great, you are doing a fantastic work. You need to know that you are trespassing borders. I am mexican and I've been following your predictions all year long from Mexico, France and Germany. This is widely the best site for Oscar Predictions. Congrats.

iasdf

Don't forget Ron Howard for Rush. It's been getting some raves from test screenings.

MichaelM

What in the hell is so hard about this? Captain Phillips for Best director? as if that desensitized racial bullshit is likely to get any recognition. Why not 'All is Lost', 'Her', 'Foxcatcher', 'American Hustle', 'The Monuments Men'. Gimme a break, noone is getting these things right, when it's the easy prognostication on the planet. Easier than flipping a quarter at this point.

Reilly

Stop kissing the backsides of the Coen Brothers! They have enough already and the smug bastard looks on their faces to prove it. STOP NOW!!!

Mercedes S.

You guys sure are male-centric! No "Lovelace", "Frances Ha", "The East", "Fill the Void" or "All You Need is Love". And still no "Mud", "Way, Way Back", or "The Spectacular Now".

sam

Again Im going to have to say Farhadi deserves more credit here. Doesn't speak french and directed a movie with stellar reviews coming out of cannes. He should be in the top 5 for sure.

Jean

My two cents:

1. David O. Russell, American Hustle
2. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
3. George Clooney, The Monuments Men
4. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
5. Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

Runner ups:
J.C Chandor, All is Lost
Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
John Wells, August: Osage County

Teddy

My top 5
1. David O. Russell, American Hustle
2. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
3. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
4. George Clooney, Monuments Men
5. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips (One of the most underrated directors around)

Alfonso Cuaron has not secured a nomination. Though he probably would be my 6th or 7th choice.

BOO

Not Steve McQueen. I would love if he did, but 12 Years a Slave does have a few early reactions. They say the movie is great but often slow and not too much more accessible than McQueen's other films.

Johnny b. good

Don't count out Ben Stiller for "The Secret Life Of Walter Mitty". Could be the year's biggest surprise…..

Bob

Early Prediction List…

1) Martin. Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street
2) David O. Russel for American Hustle
3) Steve McQueen for Twelve Years a Slave
4) Joel&Ethan Cohen for Inside Llewyn Davis
5) George Clooney for The Monuments Men

Jean

Steve Mcqueen – DUH!

junkfood_prophet

looks like a sausagefest.

ladies, stop making movies like Black Rock. Make something bold that will make the cocks impressed and the vaginas introspective.

sincerely,
a female!

Mirko

Nomination for John Lee Hancock.

serpico

I mean, I know how much Indiewire has ignored everything "Mud", considering The Playlist unfortunately gave it a negative review, but I'm waiting for Jeff Nichols to get credit for his work. Original Screenplay hopefully. At least a nomination.

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