Indiewire will provide regular updates of our predictions for the
86th Academy Awards through March 2nd, when the winners are
For the second time, all Academy members are sent screeners of all the
docs and can all vote in the category (as opposed to a select group, in
previous years), which does suggest that this might go to the populist
choice, as it did with Malik Bendjelloul’s "Searching For Sugar Man"
last year. That choice is surely Morgan Neville’s backup singer film "20
Feet From Stardom," which is the only box office hit among the five
nominees, and definitely the one with the most mainstream appeal.
However, the only major doc precursor it won was the Critic’s Choice
Award. Alex Gibney’s "We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks" and
Sarah Polley’s "Stories We Tell" won the PGA and WGA, respectively, but
they aren’t even nominated here. However, Jehane Noujaim’s nominated
"The Square" won the DGA and IDA awards, and Joshua Oppenheimer’s
nominated "The Act of Killing" topped the Cinema Eye Honors, Gotham
Awards and European Film Awards. Those are some notable hauls, and puts
both films — which may feel like more imperative subject matters to
Oscar voters — firmly in this sincerely three-way race.
Nominees and predictions below. Check out all predictions in all the categories here.
“The Act of Killing”Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
“Cutie and the Boxer” Zachary Heinzerling and Lydia Dean Pilcher
“Dirty Wars” Richard Rowley and Jeremy Scahill
“The Square” Jehane Noujaim and Karim Amer
“20 Feet from Stardom” Nominees to be determined
Will win: “The Square” Jehane Noujaim and Karim Amer
Could win: “20 Feet from Stardom” Nominees to be determined
Should win: “The Act of Killing”Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
Shoulda been here: "Stories We Tell"
Check out all predictions in all the categories here.
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