2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

Indiewire will provide regular updates of our predictions for the
86th Academy Awards through March 2nd, when the winners are
announced.

There was a time when Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell’s script
seemed like the surest win for "American Hustle," finally giving Russell
his first Oscar. But then it unexpectedly lost to Spike Jonze’s script
for "Her" at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and WGA.  Which
would seem to suggest that it’s actually Jonze — who has also never won
an Oscar — who is the frontrunner here. But "American Hustle" has
considerably more momentum than "Her," and the Oscar voters will want to
reward it somewhere (though there is a genuine chance that it ends up
going home completely empty-handed despite 10 nominations). This all
makes for a full-on nail biter, interestingly pitting Jonze and against
the man who directed him in "Three Kings."  Or perhaps they’ll split the
vote, allowing Bob Nelson to sneak in for "Nebraska"?

Nominees and predictions below. Check out all predictions in all the categories here.

The nominees:
“American Hustle” Written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
“Blue Jasmine” Written by Woody Allen
“Dallas Buyers Club” Written by Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack
“Her” Written by Spike Jonze
“Nebraska” Written by Bob Nelson

Will win: “Her” Written by Spike Jonze
Could win: “American Hustle” Written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Should win: “Her” Written by Spike Jonze
Shoulda been here: "Inside Llewyn Davis" Written by Joel & Ethan Coen

Check out all predictions in all the categories here.

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This Article is related to: Awards


Comments

jeffrey

Dallas Buyers Club all the way. Craig Borten's plight to get this to the screen, is a damn movie in itself.

Edward J. Cunningham

It didn't get a nomination, but the screenplay for "Gravity" by Alfonso and Jonás Cuarón is a big reason for that film's success. The only nominee is this category I've seen so far is "Her" by Spike Jonze, and I will be very happy if he wins.

Joe H.

I will be shocked if Her doesn't win. It has all the momentum.

Klamentyne

I absolutely disagree on the "will win" pick. "Her" could, should & WOULD win this one!

Ivan

Her should win, but I think that this will be year of American Hustle. Academy could easily go on some kind of spectacular statistical records and decide to give all possible awards to one movie. 11 years passed since Lord of the rings which won more then 10 oscars and academy doesn't always reward best movies/actors/screenplays.

juan

Her should take it. What a quotable script. Loved it.

Kansas

What a difficult year for this category! So many well written and original screenplays. American Hustle is pretty much a lock (and should be) & Her has great chances too. No nominations here for Gravity & Nebraska would be a big surprise but out of the two Gravity probably has more of a chance to get snubbed, but not by much. I could see the final spot come down to The Coen Brothers or Woody Allen, both great writers who have gotten writing noms and wins in the past. It would be cool to see The World's End and/or Enough Said grab a spot though.

Dylan

My Nominations (Best Original Screenplay):
David O. Russell and Eric Singer – AMERICAN HUSTLE
Joel & Ethan Coen – INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
Spike Jonze – HER
Woody Allen – BLUE JASMINE
Edgar Wright and Simon Pegg – THE WORLD'S END

Anthony D.

Indiewire's five picks are on point. I say American Hustle wins this, if only because the Academy wants to give Russell an award for something. Wouldn't be surprised if Nebraska or Her won it instead, though.

Brett

What if the Academy decided to add This is the End to this category like they did with Bridesmaids? Because it is pretty original

BOO

As much as I don't want American Hustle to win this category, it probably will. I want it to be Her, which I would consider runner up.

Bard

I think the Cohen brothers got this for Inside Llewyn Davis. Other nominees would be Bob Nelson for Nebraska, Spike Jonze for Her, David O. Russel & Eric Singer for American Hustle and the Cuarons for Gravity

Anon

In relation to who may win (possibly a two way battle between 'American Hustle' and 'Her'), I think it boils down to this. 'American Hustle' has the more aspects that would appeal to AMPAS (as well as the fact that Russell has yet to win an Oscar) but there is the possibility that AMPAS may get a 'been there done that' vibe (given that, this year, they gave a screenwriting prize to 'Argo' (which is in a very similar vein to AH)). On the other hand, 'Her' has been collecting the majority of the critics prizes in this category, but critics don't vote for the Oscars and there is the possibility that, while younger members of AMPAS will embrace it, the older ones might not be too inclined towards it.

BOO

I think American Hustle or Her will win this.

Niles

Coogler will take the last slot.

Brett

1. Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine
2. Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis
3. Danny Strong for The Butler
4. David O. Russell and Eric Singer for American Hustle
5. Jeff Nichols for Mud
6. Alfonso Cuaron and Jonas Cuaron for Gravity
7. Asghar Farhadi for The Past
8. Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith for Saving Mr. Banks
9. Aaron Guzikowski for Prisoners
10. Ryan Coogler for Fruitvale Station
11. JC Chandor for All is Lost
12. Spike Jonze for Her

greg w locke

mud!!!!!

Jack Cox

Those should be the final 5, this Oscar doesn't have a front runner in fact if those are the final 5 well I have to say this might be the most stacked category we've had in an Oscar year, it's terrific. If I had to say right now I think Nebraska is the front runner but that's until American Hustle comes out.

Brett

I think the winner will be somewhere between Woody Allen and The Coens and 3 of them (I'm not quite sure how to say "both" when you have a duo director team competing against one) have 4 Oscars it would be nice to see one of them (or two of them or–damn it I can't talk right!!) have 5 on their shelves

BOO

I honestly think this list might be better if you turned the top 5 upside down. Her I wouldn't even call a lock for a nomination. I'd be very happy if it were nominated and it's certainly possible but it's a tough category. American Hustle looks to be the frontrunner the way I see it but it IS unseen.

Mirko

I hope Saving Mr Banks.

Josh

I really hope Mud gets a nod SOMEWHERE and here is probably its best bet. For me it's one of the best movies I've seen all year.

Edward

I'm very shocked to see that nobody's mentioning Wolf of Wall Street for some reason…

ErikaJGarney

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Brian

Uhhh, seriously? No "Before Midnight"?! Should be a "lock"

Laut

Spike Jonze, Her
David O. Russell and Eric Singer, American Hustle
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks
Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

SEBASTIAN

INSTRUCTIONTS NOT INCLUDED…

BOO

You kidding me? Inside Llewyn Davis CERTAINLY. I also think Gravity will get in. I know it's visual based but people thought the same of Life of Pi and that got in. And wow, Her winning? It won't happen but would be pretty cool.

Oscarfan

If Last Vegas is fairly received, what if the Academy surprises us and gives it an Original Screenplay nod like they did with Bridesmaids?

Brett

The Butler is BASED on a true STORY so…it's not original

El-ninio

Put "Le Passe's" geneius screenplay in your top ten. I think it will be one of five nominees

Keil S.

Why are you helping perpetuate the unwarranted dismissal of Before Midnight? Pundits aren't even bothering to mention it anymore, despite its greatness. You should do your part to help keep it in the conversation.

Darkness69

I stand corrected – it's in the adapted screenplay category!

Darkness69

You obviously didn't see "Before Midnight"… And you're calling yourself "indiewire"…

Brett

If the Academy decided to nominate 12 (Because 12 Years a Slave) my picks would be:
1. American Hustle
2. Saving Mr. Banks
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Gravity
5. Blue Jasmine
6.All is Lost
7. Nebraska
8. Out of the Furnace
9. The Counsellor
10. Prisoners
11. Rush
12. Fruitvale Station

Giamboni

Saving Mr Banks as an interesting story snd screenplay. I add: beautiful original score.

Joe H

American Hustle and Blue Jasmine are probably locks at this point, or at least very strong contenders. Don't rule out Rush though, I think it's going to be a big contestant for several Oscars. Despite the Da Vinci Code, Howard is somewhat of an Oscar darling, and early reviews of Rush are fairly glowing.

applause

Aaron Guzikowski's script (PRISONERS) was recognized as the # 4-rated script in the 2009 Black List ( best unproduced scripts), behind Social Network which was ranked at # 2 and ahead of The King's Speech which ranked in the mid-50's. It seems it has translated into a powerful and impressive movie. Hope it is among the nominees in this coming Oscar awards season!

Mexicano

1. Blue Jasmine
2. Nebraska
3. Gravity
4. Inside Lewyn Davis
5. Le Passe
6. The Place Beyond the Pines
7. Rush

Josh Mitchell

Watch the trailer to my new short film "The Corruption of Kidiya Kitts" – http:/&#x2F

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-

Maybe this is just because I'm a huge fan of Mad Men, but I think there's a slim possibility that Weiner's screenplay for 'You are Here' could get nominated. The guy's got an obscene number of Emmys and his show was the only current one in the top 10 of that WGA list a few months ago. Then again, from what I've heard about it, it doesn't seem like something they'd usually go for.

Mirko

My predictions:

Blue Jasmine.
Frances Ha.
Her.
Inside Llewis Davis.
Saving Mr Banks.

VM

Nothing original about Blue Jasmine.

BOO

Saving Mr. Banks is a Disney family flick and it's not going to be nominated in this category.

Daniel Delago

'Fruitvale Station' definitely needs to be recognized by the Academy but not for the screenplay. Totally agree with Joeblo's comment below. It should get accolades for the acting and directing.

I'd like to add 'The Immigrant' starring Marion Cotillard to the mix. She got jipped last year with her brilliant performance in 'Rust and Bone.'

As far as 'The Place Beyond The Pines…" it is the most disappointing film of the year. Once Ryan Gosling exits the story, it unravels into cheap melodramatic garbage. The third act killed it for me.

joeblo

I understand why Fruitvale would be up for acting and maybe even directing awards, but that script was HORRIBLY heavy handed.

BOO

Take Saving Mr.Banks off and the list is pretty sharp.

Paul

Before midnight!!!!!!

Bob

Seems the writer of these thinks Saving Mr. Banks is a huge contender. The only category I see it being a real threat in is Best Actress. Maybe Best Supporting Actor as well if Hanks doesnt get nominated for Captain Philips(Best Actor) instead.

BOO

Fruitvale Station = LOCK
Blue Jasmine is pretty likely
Saving Mr. Banks = NO. It will not be the contender you expect.

ThisGuy

Inside Llewyn Davis was adapted from the Mayor of McDougal Street. Or is it so loosely that people are considering it an original screenplay?

BOO

I'd say
American Hustle
Inside Llewyn Davis
Gravity
Counselor
Fruitvale Station

Mirko

I'm to agree for screenplay of Saving mr Banks, interesting.

Before Oscars

No love for Linklater, Delpy and Hawke for Before Midnight?

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