Indiewire conducted a poll of its writers and 50 of its Criticwire participants, asking two simple questions about this year’s Film Independent Spirit Awards: Who will win, and who should win? In thirteen categories, insiders suggested who might take home an award at the ceremony Saturday afternoon in Santa Monica, California.
Check out all the results below. Links to individual ballots are forthcoming.
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: “12 Years a Slave” dominated the “will win” vote, with 94% of folks saying it will win, while “Inside Llewyn Davis” (4%) and “Nebraska” (2%) each managed a few risky bets. It also led votes for what film should win, but by a much more narrow margin. The film took 34% of the vote, followed by “Inside Llewyn Davis” (30%) and “Frances Ha” (19%).
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: “12 Years” for the win here too, with Steve McQueen taking 89% of predictions. Alexander Payne was a very distant second with 6%, while Shane Carruth took 4% for “Upstream Color.” McQueen was also won 37% of the “should win” support, just topping Shane Carruth’s 30%. Alexander Payne was third with 13%, followed by JC Chandor and Jeff Nichols, who each got 9%.
Best Female Lead
Who Will Win: Just like at the Oscars, folks are widely suggesting this is Cate Blanchett‘s to lose, with the “Blue Jasmine” actress winning 83% of the votes. Brie Larson was the possible spoiler, with 11% saying she’d win.
Who Should Win: Blanchett was many a pollster’s winner of choice, with 21% saying she should take it, but Brie Larson took 48% to be the overall winner of choice. Julie Delpy was a close third with 20%.
Best Male Lead
Who Will Win: In another potential crossover with Oscar, our poll suggested Matthew McConaughey would win at the Spirits, with 50% saying so. Fellow Oscar nominees Chiwetel Ejiofor and Bruce Dern were second and third with 21% and 17%, respectively.
Who Should Win: McConaughey fell to fourth place in terms of “should win” support (13%), with Ejiofor (19%) and Oscar snubees Robert Redford (19%) and Oscar Isaac (a clear winner with 37%) all in front of him. Wouldn’t be nice if the Spirits followed suit and gave it to someone not nominated the next day?
Best Supporting Female
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Another easy win for “12 Years a Slave,” says our poll. Lupita Nyong’o took 91% of the predictions. Nyong’o also was the winner of choice for 60% of voters, with Sally Hawkins and June Squibb each getting 13%.
Best Supporting Male
Who Will Win: Jared Leto seemed like a safer bet to win than his “Dallas” co-star to those polled, taking 81% of the vote. Though the late James Gandolfini got a notable 15% saying he’d spoil.
Who Should Win: Jared Leto fell to last place in terms of “should win” support, with 42% saying James Gandolfini should win, while Michael Fassbender (25%), Will Forte (13%) and Keith Stanfield (11%) all got votes as well
Who Will Win: Finally, something of a close call. “12 Years a Slave” had 53% of folks saying it would win for John Ridley’s screenplay, but Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke’s “Before Midnight’ script was right behind with 42%.
Who Should Win: “Before Midnight” was the favorite here by a much wider margin, taking 55% of the vote. “12 Years a Slave” (17%) and “Enough Said” (13%) were next.
Best First Feature
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Ryan Coogler and his “Fruitvale Station” topped both the will and the should, with 96% saying the former and 57% saying the latter. “Wadjda” and “Blue Caprice” both got a few voters in the “should win” column, with 22% and 10%, respectively.
John Cassavetes Award
Who Will Win: Andrew Bujalski s “Computer Chess” seems like a strong bet here, with 60% saying so. “Museum Hours” (22%) and “This is Martin Bonner” (10%) got the underdog vote.
Who Should Win: “Computer Chess” tied Jem Cohen’s “Museum Hours” here, each taking 31% of the vote compared to 16% for “Crystal Fairy,” 14% for “Martin Bonner” and 8% for “Pit Stop.” Lots of love across the board/
Best First Screenplay
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Bob Nelson’s script for “Nebraska” won in both polls, with 72% saying it will win and 42% saying it should. Lake Bell’s script for “In a World” was second in both polls, with 17% for “will” and a strong 38% for “should.”
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Another double consensus pick was “The Act of Killing” here, with 82% saying it will win best documentary and another 63% saying it should. “20 Feet From Stardom” had 12% of the “will win” vote, while “After Tiller” was the runner-up in “should” with 14% of the vote.
Best International Film Film
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: It won’t be winning at the Oscars, but “Blue Is The Warmest Color” took 69% of the vote in the “will win” poll and 49% in the “should.” Oscar frontrunner “The Great Beauty” was runner-up in both regards, with 23% saying it will win, and another 18% saying it should.
Who Will Win: He was snubbed at the Oscars, but 59% of voters think Sean Bobbitt will make up for it here with another win for “12 Years a Slave.” Just behind was Oscar-nominated “Inside Llewyn Davis” DP Bruno Delbonnel next in line with 35%.
Who Should Win: Bruno Delbonnel was the favorite here for “Inside Llewyn Davis,” though the cinematography in “Spring Breakers” (24%), “12 Years a Slave” (18%) and “All Is Lost” (11%) all had support too.
Check back with Indiewire Saturday afternoon for live coverage of the Spirit Awards!