There are going to be some very intriguing box office battles this summer. Weeks when it’s a toss up as to what film comes out of the fray on top. This weekend won’t be one of those. Even though Seth MacFarlane’s “A Million Ways To Die In The West” should rack up some nice numbers of the box office this weekend, it would take more than Neil Patrick Harris in a silly mustache to come close to dethroning Angelina Jolie and “Maleficent”. The picture has a strong built in female audience and, in addition, the TV spots make it look male-friendly as well which is vital to nudge the film over the $50 million mark for the coming three days. I’ve upped my prediction of $54 million from Monday all the way up to $63 million.
It’s a case of good news/bad news for Fox. The good news is that “Days of Future Past” opened huge last weekend. The bad news is when that happens the second week drops are usually as big, so it could be look-out-below for the second week of DOFP. In looking at past “X-Men” titles, “Last Stand” fell 67% the week after Memorial Day in 2006 and “Wolverine’ fell 69% off of a non-holiday week. Only “First Class” fell less than 60% but that film only opened to $55 million, not the lofty opening perch of DOFP’s $91 million.
Elsewhere, I’ll stick with my prediction of $27 million for “A Million Ways To Die In The West”, and “Godzilla” should drop in the high 50’s in its third weekend. My best guess on a drop for “Blended” is 54%, which is in line with “Grown Ups 2″‘s second week fall of 52% and “Jack & Jill”‘s decline of 53%.
Here is the Projected Weekend Top 10…
1. MALEFICENT—DISNEY—$63.0 MILLION
2. X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST—FOX—$30.1 MILLION—Down 66%
3. A MILLION WAYS TO DIE IN THE WEST—UNIVERSAL—$27 MILLION
4. GODZILLA—WARNER BROTHERS—$13.6 MILLION—Down 56%
5. BLENDED—WARNER BROTHERS—$6.5 MILLION—Down 54%
6. NEIGHBORS—UNIVERSAL—$6.2 MILLION—Down 55%
7. MILLION DOLLAR ARM—DISNEY—$3.7 MILLION—Down 45%
8. AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2—SONY—$3.5 MILLION—Down 55%
9. CHEF—OPEN ROAD—$1.8 MILLION (Expanding to 625 theatres this week)
10. THE OTHER WOMAN—FOX—$1.7 MILLION—Down 51%