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For Your Consideration: Guessing The Golden Globe Film Nominations

For Your Consideration: Guessing The Golden Globe Film Nominations

The Golden Globes — thanks in large part to Amy Poehler and Tina Fey — have become a near equal to the Oscars in terms of actual ceremony anticipation (at least as far as we’re concerned). But first comes the nominations, which will be announced this Thursday morning. And they should be a very interesting batch as always because of how the Globes spread out their nominations in separate categories for drama and for comedy/musical. A lot of folks with essentially no chance at Oscar nominations could get some deserved recognition as a result (think last year when Julie Delpy, Greta Gerwig and Julia Louis-Dreyfus all got Best Actress nominations in the Comedy/Musical category).

On the drama side, there’s sure things “Boyhood,” “Selma” and “The Imitation Game” alongside a bunch of films fighting out for the last two slots —  “Unbroken,” “The Theory of Everything,” “Gone Girl,” “Foxcatcher,” “American Sniper” and “Whiplash.” Typically, the eventual Oscar winner for best picture lies in the nominees here (8 out of the last 10 years). And really, the only film with a real shot at being an exception to that rule this year is “Birdman,” which is the absolute frontrunner in on the comedy/musical side of things, with “Into The Woods,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “Inherent Vice,” “St. Vincent,” “Top Five,” “The Skeleton Twins,” “Begin Again,” “Pride” and “Annie” among the films aiming to join it (and then in all likelihood, lose to it).

On the next page are predictions in every film category (and check out some thoughts on the TV categories here). Come Thursday morning, the Globes’ occasionally wacky ways (remember when Tom Cruise got nominated for his “Tropic Thunder” cameo?) could upset these rather obvious choices. But that’s just part of the fun.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

The last two winners in this category — “Argo” and “12 Years a Slave”
— have gone on to win Oscar’s top prize, though that’s actually only
been the case three times in the past decade. Will 2015 continue the
streak? It should help that the majority of the main contenders this
year should qualify here instead of as a comedy or musical.  But
given how many possibilities there are, a lot of films that could very
well nab a nomination on Oscar’s expanded list could lose out with the
Globes’ five horse race. At this point, Richard Linklater’s “Boyhood”
seems like the lock here, with “Selma,” “The Imitation Game” and “The
Theory of Everything” looking strong as well. But it’s hard to imagine
them ignoring Angelina Jolie and “Unbroken” given their history of love
for her (she has 7 nominations, including one for her previous
directorial effort “In The Land of Blood and Honey” in the foreign film
category). Surely all of these films wish they’d added a few more laughs
and/or songs-and-dances so they could have a more breezy ride on the other side.

Boyhood”
The Imitation Game”
Selma”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Unbroken”

Spoiler: “Foxcatcher”
Wishful Thinking: “Whiplash”
Likely Winner: “Boyhood”

Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

Lucky “Birdman.” It pretty much has this locked down. Last year, this category was absolutely
stacked with the likes of “American Hustle,” “Her,” “Inside Llewyn
Davis,” “Nebraska” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” all in the mix — some
questionably so. But it’s hard to imagine the likes of “Boyhood” or
“Gone Girl” convincing anybody they’re genuine comedies.  So
what joins “Birdman,” then? Well, “Into The Woods”
seems like a safe bet (it’s better than a lot of big budget musicals that have been nominated here). As does “The Grand Budapest Hotel,”
which would become Wes Anderson’s second straight nominee in this
category. But then it gets murky. Is “Annie” good enough to compete?
Will indies like “St. Vincent,” “Begin Again” and “The Skeleton Twins”
sneak in? Will Chris Rock’s “Top Five” be as big with the HFPA as it was
with critics at the Toronto Film Festival? Is “Inherent Vice” simply
too unconventional for the Globes’ taste? We won’t know until December
11th, but it’ll be definitely fun to consider until then.

“Begin Again”
“Birdman”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Into The Woods”
“St. Vincent”

Spoiler: “Inherent Vice”
Wishful Thinking: “Only Lovers Left Alive”
Likely Winner: “Birdman”

Best Director

Angelina Jolie’s “Unbroken” didn’t quite go over like the hotcakes many
expected it to, but it still remains hard to imagine Golden Globes can’t
nominate her here, given their history of love for almost anything she
does. It would give Jolie her eighth nomination (or ninth if she gets an
acting nod for “Maleficient” too), and put the two-time director up
against frontrunners Alejandro González Iñárritu and Richard
Linklater for sure, with Ava DuVernay, Morten Tyldum, David Fincher, Bennett Miller and James Marsh looking to fill the other two slots. If Jolie and DuVernay both make it in (which we are predicting), it will be the first time two women have been nominated for a directing Globe in the same year.

Ava DuVernay, “Selma”
Alejandro González Iñárritu, “Birdman”
Angelina Jolie, “Unbroken”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Morten Tyldum, “The Imitation Game”

Spoiler: David Fincher, “Gone Girl”
Wishful Thinking: Ira Sachs, “Love is Strange”
Likely Winner: Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”

Best Actress – Drama

The race for the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama is very likely
to look exactly like the Oscar race for Best Actress as few genuine
contenders are likely to come out of the comedy/musical race. So at this
point that suggests Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”) and Reese
Witherspoon (“Wild”) are locks to get nods here, with Rosamund Pike
(“Gone Girl”) and Felicity Jones (“The Theory of Everything”) looking
pretty strong, too. The fifth slot is up for grabs, though. Does Jennifer Aniston (who is
apparently campaigning here instead of comedy/musical — where she could
have taken a nod in a, uh, cakewalk) have a real shot? Probably, given
the rest of the competition is pretty weak. Hilary Swank and Marion Cotillard have the best shots at taking her out, but the Globes like their stars so Aniston seems like the best bet. However, our fingers are
seriously crossed that the Globes nominate Scarlett Johannson for
“Under The Skin.” They do tend to love Ms. Johannson, but “Skin” is
probably a bit too weird for the HFPA.

Jennifer Aniston, “Cake

Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”

Spoiler: Hilary Swank, “The Homesman”
Wishful Thinking: Scarlett Johannson, “Under The Skin”
Likely Winner: Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”

Best Actress – Comedy/Musical

Of the five or six women likely to make this year’s Oscar race, all of them are certainly going to be competing in the drama category. But interestingly, three women very likely to get Oscar nominations for other
films seem like good bets here: Angelina Jolie, Keira Knightley and
Julianne Moore. Moore is an Oscar frontrunner for “Still Alice,” but her
darkly comic turn in “Maps To The Stars” could factor into the Globes,
too. Jolie has a lot of buzz to get a directing nomination for
“Unbroken,” but she could very well double up at the Globes thanks to
“Maleficent” (which would be her eighth and ninth Globe nods,
respectively — the HFPA loves them some Angelina). Knightley,
meanwhile, should get a second Oscar nod for “The Imitation Game,” but
could factor into this race for “Begin Again.” Beyond
those three, Amy Adams is campaigning here for “Big Eyes,” which could
very well end up giving her a second straight win in this category (even
if she doesn’t end up with an Oscar nomination).

Amy Adams, “Big Eyes”
Emily Blunt, “Into The Woods”
Angelina Jolie, “Maleficent”
Keira Knightley, “Begin Again”
Julianne Moore, “Maps To The Stars

Spoiler: Kristen Wiig, “The Skeleton Twins”
Wishful Thinking: Jenny Slate, “Obvious Child”
Likely Winner: Amy Adams, “Big Eyes”

Best Actor – Drama

The Best Actor race this year is absolutely stacked, and the vast
majority of contenders in the Oscar version of that race fall into the
drama category here. Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Imitation Game”), Eddie
Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”), David Oyelowo (“Selma”) and Steve
Carell (“Foxcatcher”) seem like very good bets right now, but the fifth
slot is very much up for grabs. Jake Gyllenhaal (“Nightcrawler”), Bradley Cooper (“American Sniper”), Ben Affleck (“Gone Girl”), Jack O’Connell (“Unbroken”) and Timothy Spall (“Mr. Turner”) are all possibilities, but we’re giving the edge to Gyllenhaal — even if an Oscar nomination seems unlikely to follow.

Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nightcrawler”
David Oyelowo, “Selma”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”

Spoiler: Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper”
Wishful Thinking: Ellar Coltrane, “Boyhood”
Likely Winner: Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything” (but it’s a tough call)

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical

If Michael Keaton has one awards-related certainty in his future, it’s
winning this Golden Globe. The “Birdman” actor is very likely going to
be joined in the race by Bill Murray (“St. Vincent”) and Ralph Fiennes
(“The Grand Budapest Hotel”), though it’s hard to picture either of
those topping Mr. Keaton, who has never been nominated for a Golden
Globe before. Who
joins that trio is where it could get surprising. A long list of
possibilities would seem to include  Bill Hader (“The Skeleton Twins”),
Mark Ruffalo (“Begin Again”), Jamie Foxx (“Annie”), Chris Rock (“Top
Five”), Joaquin Phoenix (“Inherent Vice”), James Corden (“Into The
Woods”) and even Chris Pratt (“Guardians of the Galaxy). But again, this
is very much Keaton’s to lose.

Ralph Fiennes, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Bill Hader, “The Skeleton Twins”
Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
Bill Murray, “St. Vincent”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Inherent Vice”

Spoiler: Chris Rock, “Top Five”
Wishful Thinking: Zac Efron, “Neighbors”
Likely Winner: Michael Keaton, “Birdman”

Best Supporting Actress

With no division between drama and comedy/musical in the supporting
races, this is basically the same race as it is at the Oscars. Last year
it lined up five-for-five, though in most cases there’s an odd woman
out. Mila Kunis (“Black Swan”), Shailene Woodley (“The Descendents”) and
Nicole Kidman (“The Paperboy”) all got Globe nominations in this
category before falling out with Oscar. But
it’ll be a while before we know how the two line up, and for now
what’s more pressing is whose in the running to begin with. Patricia
Arquette (“Boyhood”), Emma Stone (“Birdman”), Jessica Chastain (“A Most
Violent Year”), Meryl Streep (“Into The Woods”), Keira Knightley (“The
Imitation Game”) and Laura Dern (“Wild”) seemingly like a solid six —
for five slots. Who gets left out?

Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
Laura Dern, “Wild”
Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone, “Birdman”
Meryl Streep, “Into The Woods”

Spoiler: Jessica Chastain, “A Most Violent Year”
Wishful Thinking: Tilda Swinton, “Snowpiercer”
Likely Winner: Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”

Best Supporting Actor

Is this JK Simmons’ trophy to lose, as it appears to also be the case
for the Oscar race? Simmons, Edward Norton, Mark Ruffalo and Ethan Hawke
are all looking solid here — but
remember, this is among the categories where HFPA voters tend to be the
wackiest. Tom Cruise got a nod here for “Tropic Thunder.” So did
Michael Douglas for “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps,” John Travolta for
“Hairspray” and Will Ferrell for “The Producers.” None of them stood a
shot at Oscar, so don’t necessarily try and predict this race with the
same mind as you would the Oscars (though we basically are anyway).

Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
Miyavi, “Unbroken”
Edward Norton, “Birdman”
Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”

Spoiler: Chris Pine, “Into The Woods”
Wishful Thinking: Tyler Perry, “Gone Girl”
Likely Winner: J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”

Best Screenplay

Original and adapted merge into one at the Globes, meaning it’s all the
tougher a race to predict. Only two films in the past six years — “It’s
Complicated” and “The Ides of March” — have received nominations in
this category at the Globes and then not gone on to get a Best Picture
nomination at the Oscars, suggesting this should be full of the year’s
most major contenders. “Boyhood” and “Birdman” seem like givens, with “Gone Girl, “The
Imitation Game,” “Unbroken,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “Foxcatcher,”
“Interstellar,” “Selma,” “The Theory of Everything” and “Whiplash” among
the many screenplays with potential to join them.

Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo, “Birdman”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Gillian Flynn, “Gone Girl”
Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Graham Moore, “The Imitation Game”
Spoiler: Paul Webb, “Selma”
Wishful Thinking: Chris Rock, “Top Five”
Likely Winner: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo, “Birdman”

Best Foreign Film

Often a film or two not eligible for the Oscars sneaks in here, like
“Blue is the Warmest Color” last year or “In The Land of Blood and
Honey” back in 2011. But this year there really weren’t many notable
foreign language films that didn’t make Oscar’s eligibility cut — so it
could line up very closely. The same seven or so films — “Ida,”
“Mommy,” “Two Days, One Night,” “Winter Sleep,” “Leviathan,” “Force
Majeure” and “Wild Tales” — seem like the potential frontrunners,
though this is probably the trickiest category to call.

“Ida”
“Leviathan”
“Mommy”
“Two Days, One Night”
“Winter Sleep”

Spoiler: “Wild Tales”
Wishful Thinking: “Force Majeure”
Likely Winner: “Ida”

Best Animated Feature

This is definitely “The LEGO Movie’s” to lose. “Big Hero 6,” “How To
Train Your Dragon 2,” “The Tale of Princess Kaguya,” “The Boxtrolls” and
“Mr. Peabody & Sherman” are among other contenders — they’ll
likely help make up the nominations, but can they beat “LEGO”? This
might be one of the few races we can already call.

“Big Hero 6”
“The Boxtrolls”
“How To Train Your Dragon 2”
“The LEGO Movie”
“The Tale of Princess Kaguya”

Spoiler: “The Book of Life”
Wishful Thinking: “Song of the Sea”
Likely Winner: “The LEGO Movie”

Best Original Song

There’s two options that are looking pretty good: “Lost Stars,” the Adam
Levine-performed song from “Begin Again,” and “Everything Is Awesome,”
the very catchy “LEGO Movie” song from The Lonely Island and Tegan and
Sara. Beyond those two, it’s basically anybody’s game. The Globes tend to be more friendly to mainstream acts here (U2, Coldplay and Taylor Swift all got nominated here last year — with U2 somehow beating “Let It Go” form “Frozen” in the end), so look out for Lana Del Rey (“Big Eyes”), Coldplay (“Unbroken”) and John Legend (“Selma”).

“Everything is Awesome” (“The LEGO Movie”)
“Glory” (“Selma”)
“Lost Stars” (“Begin Again”)
“Mercy Is” (“Noah”)
“Miracle” (“Unbroken”)

Spoiler: “Big Eyes” (“Big Eyes”)
Wishful Thinking: “Split The Difference” (“Boyhood”)
Likely Winner: “Lost Stars” (“Begin Again”)

Best Original Score

This seems to us to be a battle of the music tied to British
genius biopics: Johann Johannsson’s for “The Theory of Everything” and
Alexandre Desplat’s for “The Imitation Game.”  Their main competition
seems to be Hans Zimmer (“Interstellar”), Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (“Gone Girl”) and Desplat himself. He could be looking at two nods if his work in “Unbroken”
or “The Grand Budapest Hotel” sneak in too (what a year for him). Desplat has never won an Oscar, but he did win a Globe back in 2006 for “The Painted Veil.”

“Gone Girl”
“The Imitation Game”
“Interstellar”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Unbroken”

Spoiler: “Birdman”
Wishful Thinking: “Inherent Vice”
Likely Winner: “The Theory of Everything”

So what would these predictions mean for overall nomination tallies? If we were miraculously correct across the board, “Birdman” and “The Imitation Game” would lead with 6 each, while “Boyhood” and “Unbroken” would follow with 5. We’ll find out Thursday how close we come to accuracy in that regard…

Peter Knegt is Indiewire’s Contributing Editor and awards columnist. Follow him on Twitter.

Check out Indiewire’s latest chart of Oscar predictions here.

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