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2015 Golden Globe Motion Picture Predictions + What the Gamblers Are Betting On

2015 Golden Globe Motion Picture Predictions + What the Gamblers Are Betting On

The 72nd Annual Golden Globe Awards ceremony airs on NBC, tonight Sunday, starting at 8pm EST, about a month after the nominees were announced, with nominations in 25 categories.

Of note, with regards to this blog’s interests, “Selma” picked up a healthy 4 nominations – Best Picture – Drama; Best Actor – Drama (David Oyelowo); Best Director (Ava DuVernay); and Best Original Song – Motion Picture (“Glory”). It’s worth noting that Golden Globe motion picture nominees historically foretell what the Oscar nominees will be; not that they are always 100% accurate, but there’s a very good chance that most of the names you see here will carry over to the announcements scheduled to be made on January 15, 2015. So, despite the SAG Awards absence (the film – “Selma” wasn’t completed in time to meet the submission deadline), it’s set up here nicely for some recognition at the granddaddy of all ceremonies. 

I should note that, with her nomination, Ava DuVernay makes history, becoming the first black woman director to be nominated for a Golden Globe Award for Best Director in the Motion Picture category. She’s on her way to doing the same, when the Oscar nominees are announced next week. Previous Golden Globe nominees of African descent in this category include Steve McQueen for “12 Years a Slave,” and Spike Lee for “Do the Right Thing.”

Also of note, and somewhat unexpectedly, Quvenzhane Wallis picked up a nomination for Best Actress in a Motion Picture Comedy/Musical. The competition in that category is rough, with veterans like Julianne Moore and Helen Mirren also nominated, as well as Amy Adams and Emily Blunt. 

It looks like Viola Davis has effectively knocked Kerry Washington out of the Best (black) Actress in a TV series – Drama (she was also nominated for a SAG Award). I say that because, before “How to Get Away With Murder” this season, in recent years, Kerry Washington seemed to be the lone black actress with the opportunity to be in contention in this category (despite the fact that “Scandal” hasn’t been on the air for very long). Apparently, there can only be one “favored” black dramatic actress on TV at a time, and it’s maybe the beginning of Viola’s time it seems.

And finally, Don Cheadle picked up another Golden Globe nomination for his performance in “House of Lies,” and Uzo Aduba, who is also a SAG nominee, is now also a Golden Globe nominee, for her performance in “Orange is the New Black.”

The 72nd Golden Globes will be hosted by Tina Fey and Amy Poehler. 

Below are the Golden Globe nominees in the MOTION PICTURE categories for this year, with my guesses for who/what I think will likely win, in BOLD, along with notes on why I think the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will select them. After it, you’ll find out what the odds makers are saying about who will win tonight:

Best Motion Picture – Drama

“Boyhood” – This is a tough one, because I think it comes down to either “Boyhood” or “Selma,” with “Boyhood” likely having a slight advantage, even if only because there’s more awareness of Richard Linklater, with a body of work that spans over 2 decades, with “Boyhood” being his very first Golden Globe nomination – a film that’s dominated critics’ “best of the year” lists, usually topping them, or, at least, is one of the top 2 films of the year. The momo seems to be on its side. Although “12 Years a Slave” won this category last year, but I’d argue that last year’s competition doesn’t compare to this year’s. Essentially, almost any of these 5 films could win. “Selma’s” timeliness could also be a deciding factor. Also worth noting, the HFPA seems to have an appreciation for biopics, or films based on the lives of real-life people, given winners in this category over the years, so “Selma,” “The Imitation Game,” “The Theory of Everything” and “Foxcatcher” all could benefit from that fact.

“Foxcatcher”

“The Imitation Game”

“Selma”

“The Theory of Everything”

Best Performance By An Actress In A Motion Picture — Drama

Jennifer Aniston — “Cake” – Julianne Moore is the obvious choice here, but I’m going with an *upset*. Aniston has been on the receiving end of lots of great buzz over her role in “Cake” – one that essentially strips her of any glam that may have come to be associated with her, whether in real life, or on screen, delivering what has been lauded as a raw and real, poignant and unexpected performance. The “unexpected” part may just be what tips her over the finish line, over Moore, who is always expected to deliver! Although Moore has been nominated thrice, and has never won, so this could be her year.

Felicity Jones — “The Theory of Everything”

Julianne Moore — “Still Alice”

Rosamund Pike — “Gone Girl”

Reese Witherspoon — “Wild”

Best Performance By An Actor In A Motion Picture – Drama

Steve Carell — “Foxcatcher”

Benedict Cumberbatch — “The Imitation Game” – Another tough category, because I think almost any one of them can win (although minus Jake Gyllenhaal, whose performance in “Nightcrawler” felt too put-on for me to believe; and I found the film too bludgeoning). But I think Cumberbatch’s role as Alan Turing probably has the most mojo. It touches on a number of favorite awards themes: He plays a man who was key figure in cracking Nazi Germany’s Enigma code that helped the Allies win the Second World War, only to later be criminally prosecuted for his homosexuality. Although, again, the HFPA loves films based on the lives of real people, so, in addition to “Imitation Game,” Steve Carell, David Oyelowo and Eddie Redmayne have reasons (beyond their good performances) to expect to hear their names called on Sunday night. 

Jake Gyllenhaal — “Nightcrawler”

David Oyelowo — “Selma”

Eddie Redmayne — “The Theory of Everything”

Best Picture — Comedy Or Musical

“Birdman” – It’s been a critical darling since its premiere, and I don’t expect that to change. Although I wasn’t as enamored with it as others were; not that I hated it. I just didn’t fall in love with it the way others have. But I’m not a member of the HFPA, so my vote doesn’t count. Although, Wes Anderson’s “Grand Budapest Hotel,” a visual delight, as Wes Anderson films typically are, could win as well. “Birdman” just seems to be the most buzzy right now.

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”

“Into the Woods”

“Pride”

“St. Vincent”

Best Performance By An Actress In A Motion Picture — Comedy Or Musical

Amy Adams — “Big Eyes” 

Emily Blunt — “Into the Woods”

Helen Mirren — “The Hundred-Foot Journey”

Julianne Moore — “Maps to the Stars” – None of these actresses has really separated herself from the others, from all the press write-ups I’ve read about each of them, so this one is really a toss-up; although I doubt that Quvenzhané Wallis is really in contention here. Her nomination was a surprise. So I’m giving it to Moore, if only because she’s nominated in 2 different categories, and the HFPA just might decide it best to give her one of them. In addition, Moore has already won at least 3 international awards for her performance in this film (starting at Cannes last year), and this is the Hollywood Foreign Press Association after all.

Quvenzhané Wallis — “Annie”

Best Performance By An Actor In A Motion Picture — Comedy Or Musical

Ralph Fiennes — “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Michael Keaton — “Birdman” – Same reasons for why I think “Birdman” will win in its category. It’s almost like John Travolta’s *revival* of sorts in “Pulp Fiction,” although while Travolta was nominated for a Golden Globe, he didn’t win.

Bill Murray — “St. Vincent”

Joaquin Phoenix — “Inherent Vice”

Christoph Waltz — “Big Eyes”

Best Animated Feature Film

“Big Hero 6″

“The Book of Life”

“The Boxtrolls”

“How to Train Your Dragon 2″

“The LEGO Movie”  – “The LEGO Movie” because I actually haven’t seen any of these, and haven’t been following press coverage on them, so I’m out of the proverbial loop here. I’m just giving it to this one because Dylan Green picked it as his top movie of 2014.

Best Foreign-Language Film

“Force Majeure Turist” (Sweden)

“Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem Gett” (Israel)

“Ida” (Poland/Denmark) – I’ve seen 2 of the films on this list of 5 – “Ida” and “Leviathan,” both of which I liked, and, coincidentally, the 2 with the most critical buzz right now, showing up on most lists I’ve read, to win in this category. So, one of these 2 will likely win. In fact, both are rated almost exactly equally. But I’m giving a slight edge to “Ida,” if only thanks to its themes.

“Leviathan” (Russia)

“Tangerines Mandariinid” (Estonia)

Best Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role In A Motion Picture

Patricia Arquette — “Boyhood” – Another likely score for the critical darling, buzzy of the buzziest films in all of 2014, “Boyhood.” 

Jessica Chastain — “A Most Violent Year”

Keira Knightley — “The Imitation Game”

Emma Stone — “Birdman”

Meryl Streep — “Into the Woods”

Best Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role In A Motion Picture

Robert Duvall — “The Judge”

Ethan Hawke — “Boyhood”

Edward Norton — “Birdman”

Mark Ruffalo — “Foxcatcher”

J.K. Simmons — “Whiplash” – I’m going with the least-obvious choice here, even if only because this is the only award that “Whiplash” is nominated for. Although Robert Duvall’s nomination is also the only one for “The Judge.” But, of the 2, “Whiplash” is a much stronger film, in my not-so humble opinion. I wouldn’t even have put Duvall on this list, actually.

Best Director — Motion Picture

Wes Anderson — “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Ava DuVernay — “Selma”

David Fincher — “Gone Girl”

Alejandro González Iñárritu — “Birdman”

Richard Linklater — “Boyhood” – For reasons I’ve already shared in this post, I think it’s probably Linklater’s to lose. Although I also fully expect that “Selma” will win at least one award on Sunday night. I’d be surprised if it walks away entirely empty-handed. So I won’t be surprised if Ava DuVernay’s name is called here. I think “Selma” could win in either the Best Motion Picture – Drama, or Best Director category. I just think the competition in both is strong, with “Boyhood” seemingly with the critical momo on its side – momo that it had many more months to build upon (it was released last August), than a film like “Selma” has had. Although, something that could work in DuVernay’s favor is that “history-making” thing. The HFPA may want to make some kind of a statement by rewarding the very first black woman nominated for the Motion Picture – Directing Golden Globe, with the ultimate prize!

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Wes Anderson — “The Grand Budapest Hotel” – It has to win one of the awards it’s nominated for, and I think this could very well be it. Wes Anderson’s resume is also heavy with “Best Screenplay” nominations and wins, earned throughout his career.

Gillian Flynn — “Gone Girl”

Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo –“Birdman”

Richard Linklater — “Boyhood”

Graham Moore — “The Imitation Game”

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

“Big Eyes” (Big Eyes)

“Glory” (Selma) – This one seems to be a lock in this category, based on what the so-called experts are all saying. It seems to be a favorite. 

“Mercy Is” (Noah)

“Opportunity” (Annie)

“Yellow Flicker Beat” (The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part I)

And just for the fun of it (for entertainment purposes only, as I’m in no way encouraging you to gamble), here’s what the odds makers are betting on, in each category, courtesy of online betting odds comparison service, Odds Checker:


The Golden Globe awards will air this Sunday at 8 pm EST on NBC. I’ll be watching and, as usual, live-tweeting the event via @shadowandact on Twitter.

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