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Predictions: Who Will Win At The Golden Globes

Predictions: Who Will Win At The Golden Globes

We’re reaching peak awards season: various guilds have been announcing their awards in the past week, we got the BAFTA nominations this morning, and in just six days, we’ll be finding out who will be battling for Oscars this year. Bridging the gap over the weekend, as is traditional for the early part of January, are the Golden Globes, the Academy Award’s drunken, disreputable little brother.

Sure, the Globes might be a strange, secretive organization susceptible to glad-handing and away-days, but they’ve often proven to have better taste than their more immediately prestigious siblings. The ceremony takes place on Sunday night (hosted, once again, by the brilliant Amy Poehler and Tina Fey), and to get you ready, I’ve made my predictions for who’ll be the victors, and laid out who I think should be taking trophies home too. Take a look below, and let us know your own guesses in the comments.

TV

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or TV Movie

Uzo Aduba, “Orange Is the New Black”

Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”

Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey”

Allison Janney, “Mom”

Michelle Monaghan, “True Detective”

Should Win: Uzo Aduba. The Golden Globes are on a different timescale to the Emmys (who were only considering the first season, but still gave Aduba an award for guest performer), and Aduba expanded OITNB’s Crazy Eyes into some fascinating new territory this year.
Will Win: Aduba has a good chance, but our guess is that the Globes will follow the Emmy lead and go with Allison Janney, though Kathy Bates is also viable.

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie

Matt Bomer, “The Normal Heart
”
Alan Cumming, “The Good Wife”

Colin Hanks, “Fargo
”
Bill Murray, “Olive Kitteridge
”
Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan”

Should Win: I’m a fan of Alan Cumming on “The Good Wife,” but I might just lean towards Colin Hanks on “Fargo,” whose quiet portrait of semi-competent decency was a secret weapon of the show.
Will Win: None of the Emmy winners this year are nominated here, so there’s not much of a guide. My instinct is that Bill Murray’s big-star status will see him over the line here, but Matt Bomer’s a definite threat, even if he was a surprise miss at the Emmys.

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honorable Woman
”
Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”

Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge”

Frances O’Connor, “The Missing”

Allison Tolman, “Fargo”

Should Win: This is an incredibly tough one, and that’s without having seen “The Missing” yet. I adored Allison Tolman in “Fargo,” and would love her to pick something up here to make up for missing with the Emmys, but Frances McDormand and Maggie Gyllenhaal were also extraordinary. Any of the three would make us happy.
Will Win: Emmy winner Jessica Lange missed out last year, so I have a feeling the Globes will go with McDormand here.

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Martin Freeman, “Fargo”

Woody Harrelson, “True Detective”

Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective”

Mark Ruffalo, “The Normal Heart”

Billy Bob Thornton, “Fargo”

Should Win: Another very tough one, as any of the five would be worthy winners. If forced to pick, I might lean towards Matthew McConaughey, if that isn’t too boring of us…
Will Win: Without Bryan Cranston (who took the Emmy) to compete against, McConaughey’s probably the frontrunner here. But if the “True Detective” and “Fargo” votes end up being split, Ruffalo could be the dark horse to watch.

Best Actress in a TV Series, Comedy

Lena Dunham, “Girls”

Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep
”
Gina Rodriguez, “Jane the Virgin”

Taylor Schilling, “Orange Is the New Black”

Should Win: With the caveat that I haven’t yet caught up with “Jane The Virgin,” I might lean towards Julia Louis-Dreyfus, if only because Taylor Schilling had less to do in the second season of “Orange Is The New Black.” I’d be happy with Dunham, as well, though.
Will Win: She’s swept the Emmys in this category, but Louis-Dreyfus hasn’t yet picked up the Globe for “Veep.” The show had its strongest season to date, but the HFPA love awarding new stuff (see Andy Samberg winning last year), so I think it could be Gina Rodriguez that takes it.

Best Actor, TV Series Comedy

Louis C.K., “Louie”

Don Cheadle, “House of Lies”
Ricky Gervais, “Derek”

William H. Macy, “Shameless”

Jeffery Tambor, “Transparent”

Should Win: Jeffrey Tambor, 100%. The actor’s been in several of the greatest comedy shows ever (‘Larry Sanders,’ “Arrested Development”), but never been nominated before, and “Transparent” marks his finest hour ever.
Will Win: Cheadle’s the only returning nominee from last year, and is unlikely to win. Louis C.K. could take it, but my money’s definitely on Tambor.

Best Actress in a TV Series, Drama
Claire Danes, “Homeland”

Viola Davis, “How to Get Away With Murder”

Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”

Ruth Wilson, “The Affair”

Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

Should Win: I gave up on “How To Get Away With Murder” quite early, but there’s no denying that Viola Davis was having a ton of fun with it. Either her or Julianna Marguiles would be worthy winners (I haven’t seen “The Affair” yet, so can’t speak to Ruth Wilson’s performance).
Will Win: Robin Wright could be a challenger, but expect Viola Davis to be winning all the awards for her big hit show for some time to come.

Best Actor in a TV Series, Drama

Clive Owen, “The Knick”

Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan
”
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards
”
James Spader, “The Blacklist
”
Dominic West, “The Affair”

Should Win: Not a massively inspiring line-up, but I’d certainly go for Clive Owen from this batch (again, sight-unseen on “The Affair”). Sure, he’s never quite nailed the American accent, but “The Knick” is still the best he’s been since at least “Closer.”
Will Win: This one’s wide open, really. You can probably rule out Schreiber, whose show doesn’t have the same critical love as some of these, and the same is probably true for James Spader and his network procedural. Spacey was passed over last year, but could come through here, West could benefit from being the new boy, as could Owen (though “The Knick” was passed over elsewhere by the HFPA). My gut still says the latter, but could be any of the three ultimately.

Best TV Movie or Miniseries

“Fargo
”
“The Missing”

”The Normal Heart
”
“Olive Kitteridge
”
“True Detective”

Should Win: Perhaps backing up the idea that limited series are the future of television, this is a pretty strong category. That said, I’d lean towards Lisa Chodolenko’s wondrous “Olive Kitteridge” as the best of the batch.
Will Win: “Fargo” took the Emmy, and has the most Globe nominations, but it wasn’t competing against “True Detective” in the category at the previous awards. I reckon the HBO show will take it in the end.

Best TV Series, Comedy or Musical

“Girls”

”Jane the Virgin”

”Orange Is the New Black
”
“Silicon Valley
”
“Transparent”

Should Win: Unless “Jane The Virgin” is better than “Transparent,” which I’d be very surprised about, this should certainly go to Jill Soloway’s brilliant, beautifully made, wonderfully acted Amazon show. That said, these are all very strong shows.
Will Win:Brooklyn Nine Nine” was the surprise winner last year: without it returning, this is wide open. The two HBO shows are probably unlikely, while going with “Jane The Virgin” would follow the little-watched-much-loved-network-show path of the 2014 pick. “Orange Is The New Black” is probably a touch more accessible than “Transparent,” but I think the HFPA will end up going with the latter.

Best TV Series

“The Affair
”
“Downton Abbey
”
“Game of Thrones
”
“The Good Wife
”
“House of Cards”

Should Win: “The Good Wife.” Some of its season six episodes weren’t quite hitting the heights of other 2014 highlights, but it’s still been on a remarkable run across the last 18 months or so, and it’d be great to see that recognized. Second choice is “Game Of Thrones.”
Will Win: Tough to call: the HFPA neophiles could go with “The Affair,” but “House Of Cards” feels like the more obvious option. I’ll be sticking my fingers in my ears and pretending it’s “The Americans” either way.

Film

Best Original Song

”Glory” from “Selma” 

“Big Eyes” from “Big Eyes”

“Mercy Is” from “Noah”

”Opportunity” from “Annie”

”Yellow Flicker Beat” from “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 1”

Should Win: Lorde’s “Hunger Games” anthem is probably the best song here, but I’ll take any opportunity for a boost for “Selma” after its rough awards week. I’d also enjoy seeing Patti Smith at the Golden Globes, so wouldn’t be against the “Noah” track winning either.
Will Win: Lana Del Ray’s “Big Eyes” song feels like the most obvious, knowing the Weinstein Company’s power. Don’t rule out “Selma” or Lorde either, though.

Best Original Score

Antonio Sanchez – “Birdman” 

Alexandre Desplat – “The Imitation Game” 

Hans Zimmer – “Interstellar” 

Johan Johansson – “The Theory Of Everything”
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross – “Gone Girl”

Should Win: A decent list in general, but I’d probably pick Antonio Sanchez’s percussive “Birdman” score here, if only to make up for its ridiculous ineligibility from the Oscars.
Will Win: It’s the least interesting score he wrote this year (“Godzilla” and “Grand Budapest Hotel” were far better), but Alexandre Desplat is nevertheless the frontrunner here. Sanchez, Johansson or Zimmer could all surprise, though.

Best Animated Feature Film

”Big Hero 6″ 

“The Book Of Life” 

“The Boxtrolls”

“How To Train Your Dragon 2” 

“The Lego Movie”

Should Win: Arguably a stronger selection than the live-action races to some degree, there isn’t a bad film here. A win for Guillermo Del Toro’s little-seen “Book Of Life” would be gratifying, and “The Boxtrolls” was excellent too, but “The Lego Movie” was certainly the best of the bunch.
Will Win: “The Lego Movie” most likely, though “Boxtrolls” and even “Big Hero 6” are potential threats.

Best Foreign Language Film

“Force Majeure”

“Ida” 

“Leviathan”  

“Tangerines”

“Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem”

Should Win: I haven’t seen, or even really heard of Estonian pic “Tangerines,” but assuming it’s of the same level of quality as the rest of the films here, this is also a better line-up than the main Best Picture categories. Any of “Force Majeure,” “Ida” or “Leviathan” would make us happy.
Will Win: “Leviathan” feels slightly more the speed of the HFPA than the smaller “Ida,“ but either could triumph.

Best Screenplay

Alexander Dinerlaris, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Armando Bo – “Birdman” 

Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness – “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Graham Moore – “The Imitation Game”

Gillian Flynn – “Gone Girl”

Richard Linklater – “Boyhood”

Should Win: I admire Gillian Flynn’s work on “Gone Girl,” but “The Grand Budapest Hotel” is easily my favorite.
Will Win: The Globes, like the Academy, sometimes use this as a make-up prize to a film that isn’t much rewarded elsewhere, so “Grand Budapest Hotel,” like “Her” last year, feels the most likely. But almost anything here has a shot, with “Birdman” and “The Imitation Game” hottest on Wes’s heels.

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette – “Boyhood”

Keira Knightley – “The Imitation Game” 

Meryl Streep – “Into The Woods” 

Emma Stone – “Birdman”

Jessica Chastain – “A Most Violent Year”

Should Win: Any chance to give Jessica Chastain an award is a good day, and her “A Most Violent Year” performance is something pretty brilliant. Some recognition for Keira Knightley’s “Imitation Game” performance (which seems to be somehow underrated despite being nominated for everything) would probably be the most deserving award you could give that film, but my heart’s with Chastain.
Will Win: As with every other awards show this year, Patricia Arquette.

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall – “The Judge” 

Ethan Hawke – “Boyhood” 

Edward Norton – “Birdman”

J.K Simmons – “Whiplash”

Mark Ruffalo – “Foxcatcher”

Should Win: Mark Ruffalo. Given that his subtle, typically brilliant work in the film initially seemed like the obvious candidate from “Foxcatcher” to miss out in awards season, it’s pleasing that he’s actually become the film’s surest bet for a nod (though I wish it wasn’t at the expense of Carell or Tatum).
Will Win: J.K. Simmons has this locked up in most places, but the Globes have a tendency to favor bigger names over hard-working character actors, which makes Edward Norton a real threat here. That said, I still think Simmons edges it.

Best Actress In A Comedy or Musical

Amy Adams – “Big Eyes” 

Emily Blunt – “Into The Woods” 

Helen Mirren – “The Hundred-Foot Journey”

Julianne Moore – “Maps To The Stars”

Quvenzhané Wallis – “Annie”

Should Win: Julianne Moore is excellent in “Maps To The Stars,” but given that she’s had plenty of awards love elsewhere, I’d like to see this go to Emily Blunt, who’s the best thing about “Into The Woods,” and most movies she’s in, by a mile.
Will Win: Moore could end up doing the double, but “Maps To The Stars” isn’t the best fit for the HFPA, so this’ll likely go to Amy Adams.

Best Actor In A Comedy or Musical

Ralph Fiennes – “The Grand Budapest Hotel” 

Michael Keaton – “Birdman”

Bill Murray – “St. Vincent” 

Christoph Waltz – “Big Eyes”

Joaquin Phoenix – “Inherent Vice”

Should Win: Will awards bodies ever tire of giving Christoph Waltz awards nominations for giving the exact same performance? Him aside, this is a pretty decent line-up, but I’d just give the edge to Ralph Fiennes over Joaquin Phoenix or Michael Keaton.
Will Win: This is Keaton’s to lose, though Fiennes is his closest competition.

Best Actress In A Drama

Jennifer Aniston – “Cake”

Felicity Jones – “The Theory Of Everything”

Julianne Moore – “Still Alice” 

Rosamund Pike – “Gone Girl” 

Reese Witherspoon – “Wild”

Should Win: Disclaimer: I haven’t seen “Cake” or “Still Alice” yet. That said, Rosamund Pike would certainly be my pick here.
Will Win: As is the case with most of these awards, Julianne Moore is easily the favorite. Witherspoon or even Aniston could give her a run for her money, though.

Best Actor In A Drama

Steve Carell – “Foxcatcher”
Benedict Cumberbatch – “The Imitation Game”
Jake Gyllenhaal – “Nightcrawler”
David Oyelowo – “Selma”
Eddie Redmayne – “The Theory Of Everything”

Should Win: There isn’t a bad performance here, but any of Carell, Gyllenhaal and Oyelowo would be excellent picks. I’d go with the latter if only because of “Selma”’s rocky ride recently.
Will Win: A very tough category even without Michael Keaton (one of this gang will have to make way for him with the Academy, and it won’t be Benedict Cumberbatch). This could probably go to anyone, but it’s probably either Cumberbatch or Redmayne, and the latter might just have the edge.

Best Director

Ava DuVernay – “Selma” 

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – “Birdman” 

Wes Anderson – “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

David Fincher – “Gone Girl”

Richard Linklater – “Boyhood”

Should Win: Ava DuVernay, who takes a film that so easily could have been pandering awards bait and makes it thrilling, intelligent cinema.
Will Win: As with the Academy, this ultimately comes down to Linklater vs. Inarritu. It could go either way with the Oscars, but my guess is that “Birdman” is ultimately more HFPA friendly.

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

“Birdman” 

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” 

“Into The Woods” 

“St. Vincent” 

“Pride”

Should Win: I love “Pride,” but I couldn’t deny “The Grand Budapest Hotel” the prize here.
Will Win: Almost certainly “Birdman,” though if anything upsets it, it’ll be Wes Anderson’s film. Could this morning’s BAFTA nominations signal a surge for that film?

Best Motion Picture – Drama

“Boyhood” 

“The Imitation Game” 

“Selma” 

“The Theory Of Everything” 

“Foxcatcher”

Should Win: Either “Foxcatcher” or “Selma” should win here: complex and brilliantly made films. “Boyhood’ wouldn’t be a terrible choice either.
Will Win: “Boyhood” could take it, but I suspect “The Imitation Game” has the better chance, as the starrier outing. Don’t entirely rule out “Selma,” though; the HFPA were much more on board than most awards bodies.

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