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For Your Consideration: Yep, It’s The 2016 Oscar Predictions

For Your Consideration: Yep, It's The 2016 Oscar Predictions

With the Oscars now just a week-old memory, the time has come for the final
edition of this column (for this season). From the Toronto International
Film Festival’s unofficial awards season kickoff in September to last
weekend’s generally underwhelming ceremony, it’s been six long months of
speculation and anticipation and we’re ready to move on (as we’re sure many
of you are as well).

There is one final column before letting
awards talk rest in peace until September. It’s been an annual tradition
at Indiewire (and elsewhere) to take an ignorant stab at the following
year well before there’s any substantial evidence in its regard (save recent Sundance and Berlin premieres "45 Years," "Mr. Holmes," Me and Earl and the Dying Girl" and "Brooklyn"  — which should not be ruled out given how well "Boyhood," "The Grand Budapest Hotel" and "Whiplash" ended up doing this season).

Surprisingly,
it’s not always a total crapshoot. Last year, we did manage to properly
predict
nine of the 20 acting nominees (though, granted, we also predicted "Big Eyes" and "Inherent Vice" would get best picture noms). Which probably says more
about how extraordinarily predictable this all is than any sort of
skill, but still, before this column lies dormant until the fall…
let’s give it another shot. No one’s taking this too seriously. (Right?)

Best Picture
There’s definitely some major heavyweight filmmakers with projects very likely to come out this year, many of them regular fixtures in recent races. Will Sundance breakouts "Brooklyn" and "Me and Earl and the Dying Girl" pull a "Boyhood" or "Whiplash"? Will Todd Haynes’ "Carol" finally nab the director a Best Picture nomination? Will "The Hateful Eight," "Joy," "The Revenant" and "St. James Place" quickly return Quentin Tarantino, David O. Russell, Alejandro González Iñárritu and Steven Spielberg to the Oscar game? Or is something not even on our radar going to come out of nowhere at some point in the next ten months. We have no idea. No one does. But it’s still fun to take an ignorant stab…

Prediction:
"Brooklyn"
"Carol"

"Demolition"
"The Hateful Eight"
"Joy"
"The Revenant"

"St. James Place"
"Steve Jobs"
"Suffragette"
"Trumbo"

(Alternates: "The Sea of Trees"; "Southpaw"; "Freeheld"; "The Danish Girl"; "Me and Earl and the Dying Girl"; "Ricki and the Flash"; "45 Years"; "Genius"; "Spotlight"; "Macbeth")


Best Director

Alejandro González Iñárritu seems like a pretty reasonable bet to be back in the race a year after he won for his 1800s Wild West adventure "The Revenant," but it’s pretty extreme to predict a double win. Especially with Todd Haynes, Steven Spielberg, David O. Russell, Quentin Tarantino, Dany Boyle and Gus Van Sant all potentially in the mix as well. It sadly looks — at least right now — like another boys club in this category, with Sarah Gavron currently looking the best bet to change that for her women’s rights saga "Suffragette" (fingers crossed).

Prediction:
Todd Haynes, "Carol"
Alejandro González Iñárritu, "The Revenant"
David O. Russell, "Joy"

Steven Spielberg, "St. James Place"
Quentin Tarantino, "The Hateful Eight"

(Alternates: Danny Boyle, "Steve Jobs"; Jean-Marc Vallee, "Demolition"; John Crowley, "Brooklyn"; Sarah Gavron, "Suffragette"; Gus Van Sant, "The Sea of Trees")


Best Actor

Best Actor could once again (as it almost always is these days) be an ultra-competitive race full of some of major A-listers. Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael Fassbender, Jake Gyllenhaal and Don Cheadle — all of whom have never won — have films coming out this year that scream Oscar (at least on paper) and all of them are due. They might have to compete against someone who is definitely not due, though, as Eddie Redmayne could be in the running again for his role as a transgender artist in Tom Hooper’s "The Danish Girl." Could Eddie Redmayne be the next Tom Hanks or Spencer Tracy, winning back to back Oscars?

Prediction:
Don Cheadle, "Miles Ahead"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant"
Michael Fassbender, "Steve Jobs"
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Southpaw" or "Demolition"
Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl"

(Alternates: Bryan Cranston, "Trumbo"; Jason Segel, "The End of the Tour"; Tom Hanks, "St. James Place"; Tom Courtenay, "45 Years"; Joseph Gordon-Levitt, "The Walk"; Matthew McConaughey, "The Sea of Trees")


Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Meryl Streep, Jennifer Lawrence and Julianne Moore — our four most recent winners in this category — all have extremely baiting new films coming out this year, and it’s entirely possible that they all come back and make this an epic race of almost all very recent winners. Though Saorise Ronan, Charlotte Rampling, Lily Tomlin and Blythe Danner (who have all never won — though Ronan and Tomlin each have one nomination) are coming off of rave reviews for performances that debuted at Sundance or Berlin… It’s just a matter of whether they can hang in there given how much competition is coming.

Prediction:
Cate Blanchett, "Carol"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Joy"
Saorise Ronan, "Brooklyn"

Meryl Streep, "Ricky and the Flash"
Lily Tomlin, "Grandma"

(Alternates: Charlotte Rampling, "45 Years"; Carey Mulligan, "Suffragette"; Julianne Moore, "Freeheld"; Blythe Danner, "I’ll See You In My Dreams"; Alicia Vikander, "The Danish Girl")


Best Supporting Actor

Is the fourth time the charm for Bradley Cooper? He’s been nominated three times in a row for "Silver Linings Playbook," "American Hustle" and "American Sniper," and is being reunited with his "Playbook" and "Hustle" director David O. Russell and co-star Jennifer Lawrence in "Joy," which sure sounds like a promising proposition to finally take home gold. But two other recent Oscar losers — Michael Keaton and Steve Carell, also have supporting roles with major potential this year in "Spotlight" and "Freeheld," respectively, and they should all watch out for Tom Hardy, who could very well ride a meaty role in Alejandro González Iñárritu‘s "The Revenant" to a first nomination.

Prediction:
Bradley Cooper, "Joy"

Tom Hardy, "The Revenant"
Michael Keaton, "Spotlight"
Ken Watanabe, "The Sea of Trees"
Forest Whitaker, "Southpaw"

(Alternates: Mark Rylance, "St. James Place"; Steve Carell, "Freeheld"; Samuel L. Jackson, "The Hateful Eight"; Jesse Eisenberg, "The End of the Tour"; John Goodman, "Trumbo"; Jude Law, "Genius")


Best Supporting Actress

Whereas Best Actress could be chock full of former winners this year, Best Supporting Actress could be a major opportunity to reward some women who have never taken home Oscar gold. Jennifer Jason Leigh (who has somehow never been nominated), Rooney Mara, Ellen Page, Naomi Watts and Helena Bonham Carter are among the on-paper performances that could be in the hunt…

Prediction:
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "The Hateful Eight"
Rooney Mara, "Carol"
Ellen Page, "Freeheld"
Naomi Watts, "Demolition"
Katherine Waterson, "Steve Jobs"

(Alternates: Marion Cotillard, "Macbeth"; Kate Winslet, "Steve Jobs"; Nicole Kidman, "Genius"; Helena Bonham Carter, "Suffragette"; Virginia Madsen, "Joy")

Peter Knegt is Indiewire’s Contributing Editor and awards columnist. Follow him on Twitter here (where he promises to mention nothing Oscar-related until at least September).

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Comments

Anon

Inside Out is off the list? I bet it could get a nom for Best Picture, or at least I hope it will. It deserves one!

Ed Lorusso

Bobby Cannavale supporting actor for DANNY COLLINS

bgfcn ghrst

hi

TheBigOne

What about Suite française ?

Mambo

I’d add Maggie Smith with "Lady in the Van" and the film "Macbet" with it’s cast!

Annie

It`s the same faces year after year,Blanchett, Dicaprio etc.It would be nice to see some new comers breaking through.

Charles

I though Terrence Malik was about to be considered for knight of cups or his future project but I can’t understand why he is never on the list

Elaine

It’s Saoirse not Saorise.

chrosTV

I think you underestimate Guillermo Del Tero. Crimson Peak will be one of the major award contenders for the next year. I also think, that Seth Rogen will have chances to get nominated for Steve Jobs for his first straight out dramtic role.

Jeffrey

Jake Gyllenhaal gets his overdue nomination, loses to Michael Fassbender. Right?

Burt

Obviously it’s not sure to come out this year, but if it did, wouldn’t Meryl Streep’s 20th nomination be Florence? Stephen Frears has a great record with his leading ladies.

The Cinemaholic

Correction: Naomi Watts is playing lead (Not Supporting) in DEMOLITION. How do I know ? I have read the screenplay. Also, Fox won’t want to put her in Supporting considering she will already be contending in that category (with THE SEA OF TRESS).

FYC

Joseph Gordon-Levitt for The Walk or Snowden. He is easily one of the best working today and is still waiting for his first nomination.

FYC

Joseph Gordon-Levitt for The Walk or Snowden. He is easily one of the best working today and is still waiting for his first nomination.

Pedro

I really hope Macbeth to be a contender and Marion Cotillard to be amazing to finally win her 2nd Oscar.

Sarah

I’m already rooting for Jennifer Jason Leigh to win for The Hateful Eight. How the hell has she never even been nominated for an Oscar?

Nathan Duke

Silence was pushed back to 2016.

Zack

he forgot Martin Scorcese’s Silence

Pj

Looks good but I think Searchlight will be able to get a director in there with their full slate.

Aurora

Todd Haynes is the best, I definitely hope he gets some Oscar love in 2016. And dear god I hope DiCaprio doesn’t get nominated, the internet gets unbearable when he does.

Jeff

What about Kate Winslet in supporting for Triple Nine and/or lead for The Dressmaker?

Brett

Best Picture:
St. James Place
Star Wars The Force Awakens
Joy
The Hateful Eight
The Walk
The Revenant
Steve Jobs
The Danish Girl
The Sea of Trees
Snowden

Best Director:
J.J. Abrams for Star Wars
Steven Spielberg for St. James Place
Robert Zemeckis for The Walk
Oliver Stone for Snowden
David O. Russell for Joy

Best Actor:
Leonardo Dicaprio for The Revenant
Keanu Reeves for The Whole Truth
Bryan Cranston for Trumbo
Jake Gyllenhaal for Demolition
Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs

Best Actress:
Meryl Streep for Ricki and the Flash
Jennifer Lawrence for Joy
Alecia Viklander for The Danish Girl
Saiorse Ronan for Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett for Carol

Best Supporting Actor:
Tom Hardy for The Revenant
Ken Watanabe for The Sea of Trees
Kurt Russell for The Hateful Eight
Seth Rogen for Steve Jobs
Bradley Cooper for Joy

Best Supporting Actress:
Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria
Rooney Mara for Carol
Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight
Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs
Naomi Watts for Demolition

Brett

I think Keanu Reeves should get some recognition for The Whole Truth

Adam

Beasts of No Nation, A Bigger Splash, Midnight Special, Mr. Holmes, The Sea of Trees, Spotlight, Steve Jobs, Suffragette

Lancaster

St. james is out. Just like Unbroken last year. Its going to be the movie that critics and blogers will kill. Interesting Peter. No Jolie this year LOL.

Big One

I would love seeing Naomi winning an Oscar ! I’d rather for a Leading role but whatever.
Hope for Streep too…

Daniel

That Derek Cianfrance film could be an Oscar player perhaps. I hope Carol is great, not really for the Oscar love, his films have an oddness to them that the Academy probably doesn’t appreciate.

Carlie

It’s clearly Naomi Watts’ year! She’s in Three Generations, While We’re Young, The Sea of Trees, Demolition and Insurgent all which release! That means many chances for a well deserved Oscar!

Nathan Duke

I’ll obviously wait until I’ve seen the films and can make a judgment based on their quality, but… I’d love to see Todd Haynes finally get nominated or win something. He’s overdue.

Nathan Duke

I’ll obviously wait until I’ve seen the films and can make a judgment based on their quality, but… I’d love to see Todd Haynes finally get nominated or win something. He’s overdue.

Miguel Valdez-Lopez

Where’s Guillermo del Toro?
Isn’t he supposed to win an Oscar directing something with either Val Kilmer o Christian Bale in the cast?

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