Indiewire conducted a poll of its writers and 40 of its Criticwire participants, asking two simple questions about this year’s Film Independent Spirit Awards: Who will win and who should win? In 13 categories, insiders suggested who might take home an award at the ceremony on Saturday afternoon.
Check out all the results below.
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: “Boyhood” dominated the “will win” vote, with 85% of folks saying it will win, while “Birdman” (12%) and “Selma” (3%) each managed a few bets. “Boyhood” also led votes for what film should win, but by a more narrow margin. The film took 51% of the vote, followed by “Selma” (20%), “Birdman” (15%) and “Whiplash” (12%).
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: “Boyhood” for the win here too, with Richard Linklater taking 80% of predictions. Ava DuVernay was a very distant second with 10%, while Alejandro González Iñárritu took 7% for “Birdman.” Linklater was also won 44% of the “should win” support, topping DuVernay’s 27%. Iñárritu was third with 17%.
Best Female Lead
Who Will Win: Just like at the Oscars, folks are widely suggesting this is Julianne Moore‘s to lose, with the “Still Alice” actress winning 85% of the votes. Marion Cotillard was the possible spoiler, with 10% saying she’d win.
Who Should Win: Moore was only 15% of voters’ winner of choice, with Tilda Swinton (topping the poll for “Only Lovers Left Alive” at 32%) Cotillard (27%), Jenny Slate (24%).
Best Male Lead
Who Will Win: In another potential crossover with Oscar, our poll suggested Michael Keaton would win at the Spirits, with 80% saying so. David Oyelowo and Jake Gyllenhaal were second and third with 21% and 17%, respectively.
Who Should Win: Keaton fell to second place in terms of “should win” support (24%), with Oscar snubbed “Selma” star David Oyelowo topping the poll at 41%. Jake Gyllenhaal (22%) and John Lithgow (10%) also had a good share of the votes.
Best Supporting Male
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Another easy win for J.K. Simmons, says our poll. The “Whiplash” actor took 90% of the predictions. Simmons also was the winner of choice for 54% of voters, with Ethan Hawke taking 27% and Riz Ahmed taking 10%.
Best Supporting Female
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: No surprise here as “Boyhood” actress Patricia Arquette won both polls, with 90% saying she will win and another 56% saying she should. Emma Stone and Jessica Chastain tied for second regarding the latter, taking 17% each.
Who Will Win: This seems like one guaranteed prize for “Nightcrawler,” as 66% said Dan Gilroy’s script would win a Spirit. “Love is Strange” was next up with 17%, while “A Most Violent Year” (10%) and “Only Lovers Left Alive” (7%) got a few upset predictors.
Who Should Win: “Only Lovers Left Alive” was the favorite here, taking 44% of the vote. But all the screenplays had some fans: “Nightcrawler” (22%), “A Most Violent Year” (20%), “Love is Strange” (12%) and even “Big Eyes” (2%) got votes.
Best First Feature
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Dan Gilroy and his “Nightcrawler” topped both the will and the should, with 68% saying the former and 36% saying the latter. “Obvious Child” was the spoiler for “who will win” at 15%, while “A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night,” “Obvious Child” and “Dear White People” all got more than a few vote in the “should win” column, with 33%, 21% and 10%, respectively.
John Cassavetes Award
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Jeremy Saulnier s “Blue Ruin” seems like a strong bet to win here, with 84% saying so. An additional 70% said it should win, topping “Land Ho!” (12%) and “Test” (9%).
Best First Screenplay
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Justin Simien’s script for “Dear White People” won in both polls, with 87% saying it will win and 40% saying it should. “The One I Love” was second in both polls, with 8% for “will” and a strong 26% for “should.”
Who Will Win and Who Should Win: Another double consensus pick was “Citizenfour here, with a whopping 98% saying it will win best documentary and another 49% saying it should. “20,000 Days on Earth” (22%) and “Virunga” (18%) got sizable “should win” votes too.
Best International Film
Who Will Win: Poland’s “Ida” is the favorite both at the Oscars and here, apparently, with 53% saying it would win the Best International Film prize over Scotland’s “Under The Skin” (25%) and Sweden’s “Force Majeure” (15%).
Who Should Win: It won’t be winning anything at the Oscars, but “Under The Skin” took 44% of the vote in the “will win” poll over Canada’s “Mommy” (23%) and a tie between “Majeure” and “Ida” (at 13% each).
Who Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki apparently has this in the bag for “Birdman,” with 88% of those polled saying he’ll win. Bradford Young was the upset choice for “Selma” at 7%.
Check back with Indiewire Saturday afternoon for live coverage of the Spirit Awards!