The wild waters of the 2015 awards season continued this morning with the Golden Globe nominations, which only furthered the general confusion of this year’s film races. Consensus is not forming like it typically does by this point in the season, with most categories seemingly all over the place. What does that mean for the Oscar race? Here’s our updated predictions, for what they’re worth. For more analysis, check out Anne Thompson’s take.
But first, let’s look at 10 ways the Golden Globes shook up the race.
The “Spotlight” actors were all snubbed.
A day after Rachel McAdams was the only “Spotlight” cast member to receive an individual SAG Award nomination, the Globes snubbed the entire cast. This comes a week after both Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo were widely considered locks for the best supporting actor Oscar category (and Keaton a potential winner). Now they could very well both not end up nominated. Perhaps they’ll split the votes, but either way it’s a strange development for a film that is otherwise steamrolling its way to winning best picture.
“Carol” leads the pack.
“Spotlight” was expected to lead the Golden Globe film nominations, but those acting omissions paved the way for a surprise champion: Todd Haynes’ “Carol.” Even though it missed out on a deserved best screenplay nomination, mentions for best picture, best director, best original score and best actress for both Rooney Mara and Cate Blanchett gave “Carol” a total of 5 nods — more than any other film. That certainly boosts its status to a near-lock for a best picture Oscar nomination.
No Johnny Depp.
What did Johnny Depp ever do to you, HFPA? A few years after suggesting that he could film himself painting a wall and it would get him a Golden Globe nomination (that would be when Depp got nods for “Alice in Wonderland” and “The Tourist” in the same category in the same year), the group failed to nominate his performance in “Black Mass.” Until today, it had seemed like a sure thing in terms of getting Depp his first Oscar nomination since “Sweeney Todd.” The HFPA just made that scenario a little less likely.
Michael Shannon continues to find support for “99 Homes.”
One of the most remarkable success stories of awards season so far has been Michael Shannon, whose work in Ramin Bahrani’s little seen “99 Homes” (it’s grossed just under $1.5 million) went from Oscar long shot to major contender in just a few days thanks to notices from the L.A. Film Critics Association, SAG and now the Golden Globes. An Oscar nod sure sounds like it’s in the cards at this point.
That awful Sam Smith James Bond song gets in over The Weeknd and Miley Cyrus.
Nobody seemed to like Sam Smith’s “Spectre” theme “Writing’s On The Wall,” but that didn’t stop the HFPA from nominating it for best original song over the likes of Miley Cyrus and Linda Perry (“Hands of Love”) and The Weeknd (“Earned It”). That doesn’t necessarily mean Oscar voters will do the same, though. This category often has very little crossover. Last year, only one song got nominated with both groups (“Glory,” which won both as well) — but back in 2011, none did. CORRECTION: Lady Gaga and Diane Warren’s “Til It Happens To You” was previously listed here as an omission but it turns out it was not eligible for a Golden Globe nomination, but will be at the Oscars.
Alicia Vikander gets two nominations.
The Golden Globes rightfully placed Alicia Vikander in lead for her work in Tom Hooper’s “The Danish Girl,” leaving a space in the supporting actress category for… Alicia Vikander. The actress got a second nomination for Alex Garland’s “Ex-Machina,” which only further confuses what’s going to happen to her on Oscar nomination morning. Could she cancel herself out or catapult to frontrunner status?
Kristen Stewart gets nothing.
After winning a slew of somewhat surprising notices from critics groups, Kristen Stewart all of a sudden seemed very much in the race for “Clouds of Sils Maria.” But despite their tendency to nominate as many big stars as possible, the Globes oddly did not go for Stewart (despite her very much deserving it).
The Globes’ love affair with Steven Spielberg is burned with “Bridge.”
Steven Spielberg has been nominated for a whopping 14 Golden Globes, 11
of which came from this category. Even when the Academy overlooked him
for films like “The Color Purple” or “A.I. Artificial Intelligence,” he
got in with the Globes. But that was not the case with his Cold War drama “Bridge of Spies,” which only received a single nomination for supporting actor Mark Rylance.
“Mad Max” confirms its status as a major Oscar player.
It started with a best picture win from the National Board of Review, and now the HFPA has made it clear: George Miller’s “Mad Max: Fury Road” is a big contender this year. The group nominated it for both best picture and best director, solidifying its status in the Oscar race. Miller could even be poised to win best director at this point.
The best actress in a comedy/musical category.
It’s quite the awards season for charismatic women: Amy Schumer, Melissa McCarthy, Jennifer Lawrence, Lily Tomlin and Maggie Smith rounded out the nominees for best actress. This wasn’t necessarily surprising, but the fact that the HFPA did not nominate Meryl Streep for her thirtieth Golden Globe for “Ricki and the Flash” is quite something — as is the potential amazingness for when this category is announced on the night of the awards. Maggie Smith will almost certainly be a no-show, but anticipating a champagne-buzzed Schumer, McCarthy, Lawrence and Tomlin as their names are called is already poised to be one of the night’s highlights. As will be the winner’s speech.