2016 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

2016 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

READ MORE: Indiewire Awards Season Spotlight 

The best actress race seems downright obvious compared to the wild, wild waters of best supporting actor, where Golden Globe winner Sylvester Stallone isn’t a lock for the Oscar in the slightest. Stallone’s biggest threat might be Tom Hardy, the up-and-coming icon who had his best year yet thanks to "Mad Max," "Legend" and "The Revenant." While these two seem like the ones to beat, it’s important to not that Stallone missed out on the SAG nomination, leaving the door potentially open for Mark Rylance and Christian Bale.

Below is Anne Thompson’s take on how things might shake down in the race for best supporting actor. Check out Thompson on Hollywood’s Oscar predictions page for more awards season analysis. Click here for more category breakdowns on Indiewire.

Christian Bale ("The Big Short")
Tom Hardy ("The Revenant")
Mark Ruffalo ("Spotlight")
Mark Rylance ("Bridge of Spies")
Sylvester Stallone ("Creed")

Predicted Winner: Sylvester Stallone 
Potential Spoiler: Tom Hardy

WINNER: Mark Rylance

For more insight into the 2016 awards season, visit the Indiewire Awards Season Spotlight homepage here

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Danny ROHR

Sly got hosed that’s how I feel

Jill Poe

Mark Ruffalo is too often overlooked. He is so passionate and gives amazing performances in every role he has


Completely agree with anany. Don’t believe mark or Christian should be there. So many more worthy performances.


Christian Bale ;)

ray devey

maybe Sylvester Stallone


Will Win: Stallone
Should Win: Rylance
Should’ve been nominated: Idris Elba and Michael Shannon


I forehand apology for one misplace word in my comment.I meant to say"on the the other hand" not "on the under hand". I do apologize.


As far as everyone is concern the acting nominees are already a lock with DiCaprio,Larson,Vikander and especially with Stallone.Tom Hardy,like Mark Ruffalo and Christen Bale have future chances to win Oscars in either lead and supporting.Mark Rylance on the under hand will be doing stage and television work.So to answer your question:"Is Sylvester Stallone the frontrunner"?I can give it to you in one word-YES!


Should win: Tom Hardy for ‘The Revenant’. Shoulda been here: Idris Elba for ‘Beasts of No Nation’ and Paul Dano for ‘Love & Mercy’. Should not have been here: Christian Bale and Mark Ruffalo for caricature performances.


Tom Hardy se pasa en Revenant, tiene que ganarlo si o si, aunque Sylvester es leyenda.


Tom hardy was phenomenal. He gets my vote

Nancy Dixon

Mark Ruffalo was incredible in Spotlight!! He has my vote!

Chris Bowen

I would have thought Ruffalo would qualify in best actor oscar (not supporting). Steven Tucci was the outstanding supporting cast member, in that film.

Max Davidse

To me that is Mark Ruffalo hands down, what a role and what a movie!

Craig Callaghan

Tom Hardy was just as good in "The Revenant" as Leo (who is a complete lock for the Oscar this year). Hardy showed such versatility in the three great performances that dropped this year. (playing twins!!!) Almost unrecognizable in "The Revenant" he provides a complex, conflicted and evil character. This powerful work only makes you want Leo’s character to survive to hunt him down. I think that Sly was very good in Creed, because of the history to the Rocky films, but is not a great actor as the SAG nominees concurred. I would like to see "The Revenant" win everything this Oscar year…My favorite film experience!


I hope Tom Hardy wins. That was good acting.


The Walk should have been norminated

Dex Ancel

Tough category. If the academy wants to award Stallone’s carrer, he’ll get it (and I’d say that’s fine). On the other hand, if they’re really lookin for the best performance Hardy should win the oscar. Besides he acted in 2 of the nominated movies for best picture. This was his year and he deserves it.


TOM HARDY for supporting actor

Michael Patterson

A neck and neck race between Stallone and Rylance. If Rylance wins the SAG award and the British Academy Award, he just might have the edge.

Alasdair MacLeod

Christian Bale, what can I say the man is a genius, probably the best character actor ever. And after watching "the big Short" I really think he deserves the award, stallone was good in Creed, and hardy was good in the revernant but bale was truly captivating in the big short.


Mark Rylance in ‘Bridge of Spies’.

Dave Cebrero

Where is Idris Elba? He was AMAZING in Beasts of No Nation

Rai The Noblesse

Hardy kind of stole the show from Leo (only) due to more dialogue.. but overall they were equal, the movie lived off both of them being so credible and opposites (rolls), they should give the oscar to Hardy AND Leo (but not give The Revenant best movie… it wasnt imo the best… but had some of the best acting)

Rai The Noblesse

think Hardy will win this one. Rylance was good too, but imo Hardy was more intens and played a roll untypical of him…, just hope they dont give it to Hard and NOT to Leo.. (hope both.. not just one of them.. this time Leo seemed as good as is co-actor.. unlike in Wallstreet Shark, where is co-actor was imo better)


Tom Hardy is the new DeNiro. Totally deserves this honor. Watch his movies before Revenant to see acting genius. Stallone already has an Oscar for Rocky. The Globe award was pure-pity-you-don’t-stand-a-chance.


Tom hardy was supreme in the revevenant and I fully subscribe Steve Jan comment

Stallone does not deserve to be in the same category as Rylance and the rest

Harris out


I just saw The Revenant last night. Tom Hardy was more powerful than Leo DiCaprio in it. Tom Hardy was fantastic and the meats and potatoes of that wonderful movie. I hope Tom Hardy wins the Oscar!


Stallone deserves it. He is a surviver. His Rocky Balboa is film history, like it or not.


Tom Hardy in Revenant and the little boy in Room.


Seems like Del Toro in Sicario has been forgotten. It’s a shame that the release date holds such weight in these things.


Mark Ruffalo was the only WEAK part of Spotlight. Over racting all over the place..what about Keaton?


Benicio Del Toro for Sicario


I think Tom Hardy has been way overlooked this award season, he was great in The Revenant. I also think Paul Dano should get a nod as well if not in lead then in supporting.


Nick Nolte, A Walk In The Woods. A superb performance. Totally stole the show. What a great and memorable character.


I hope the nominees will be 1. Sylvester Stalline for CREED, 2. Nicholas Hoult for MAD MAX: FURY ROAD 3. Tom Hardy for THE REVENANT 4. Jacob Trembley for ROOM 5. Edris Alba for BEAST OF NO NATION.

The Mr Project

Loved Spotlight, but Ruffalo was surprisingly not that good in it. His character’s quirks came off forced and it just seemed like he was trying to hard to be jumpy. He was awkward and distracting.


Stallone by a TKO.



Kyle Tucker

My top 5:
Joel Edgerton
Idris Elba
Tom Hardy
Michael Keaton
Sylvester Stallone

R Skywalker

Tom Hardy acted the arsehole off Di Caprio in The Revenant.

Daniele Roma

Tom Cortney for "45" might be a last minute surprise nominie


I foresee Harrison Ford in the final cut for Star Wars. He was the scene stealer. Plus, this pay be his last shot at an Oscar.


My vote is for Tom Hardy. He’s absolutely fantastic in The Revenant. True chameleon!


Why no love for Jason Mitchell in Straight Outta Compton?


Too bad Walton Goggins won’t be here. He’s so great in the hateful eight. Stole that film for me.

Chris Moloney

Paul Dano, Paul Dano, Paul Dano. Love & Mercy came out early in the year, but Paul Dano captures Brian Wilson in an OSCAR worthy performance. PLEASE consider him for this.


BRENDAD re: I’m also hoping for that. Nicholas Hoult’s Performance is amazingly stunning! I hope he will be nominated.


I think that Nicholus Hoult will get nominated for Fury Road


If Michael Keaton is "supporting" in Spotlight then who is the lead?


For me it’s Tom Hardy….he was really good in The Revenant.


Benicio del Toro was incredible in Sicario. Stallone, Rylance, and Ruffalo all gave amazing performances as well.


Paul Dano indicado para coadjuvante seria bom um ator q precisa de uma oportunidade.


Would Steve Carell not be considered under supporting for his role in TBS? If so, I think he should defo be a contender for this.


Hard to believe Tom Hardy is ranked so low.


Tom Hardy, definitely.


Tom Hardy in Revetant is his best yet! A consideration before we give it to one of the mainstays..


MArk Ruffalo gets my vote. The dude turns in the most focused, raw and real performance in Spotlight.


The Kid from room hands down gives the best performance of the year, excluding Rooney Mara in Carol.

Michael B

This is clearly the category of the year! So happy to see a great, but largely neglected actor (Michael Shannon) in the race. At this point, I’m predicting Mark Rylance, Michael Shannon, Christian Bale, Idris Elba and, yes, Stallone.


This category is going to be a fun one to watch over the next few weeks!




NICHOLAS HOULT for MAD MAX: FURY ROAD! He has the most lovable character this year! WITNESS ME!!!!


Ugh, not Christian Bale getting in over Dano or Tremblay. I mean, even Del Toro or Goggins would be better. Nevermind that Ryan Gosling is leagues better in The Big Short than Bale.


Jacob Tremblay is so good in "Room"! He may be a kid but he gives one of the best performances I have seen in a long time. It is truly special!


it maybe complicated to predict the five nominees this year but come on folks! The Oscar is between Idris Elba and Stallone! Idris should win since he was completely brilliant in Beast of No Nation, plus last year no black actors were nominated so the oscars will make up for that here.


Kurt Russell is poisoned 90 mins in. Was Peter Knegt poisoned assembling this list?


Defiantly hope Dano at least gets the nomination . He was amazing in Love & Mercy


I think Tremblay will ride Larson’s wave and with the SAG nomination to boot, will make the cut. It seems like the Spotlight boys are splitting the vote too much. In a less competitive year, both could’ve made the list. I think Anne is correct in her article: Keaton won a Best Actor critic prize. Thus, his best option would be to start campaigning in lead, pronto. Let’s say DiCaprio, Fassbender, and Redmayne are all locks. That leaves Depp, Smith, Damon, and now Keaton. With Spotlight a top contender for the BP win, Keaton could easily slide in along with one of the other three.

I don’t even know who is going to win Best Supporting Actor at this point!


1. Mark Rylance, "Bridge of Spies"

2. Tom Hardy, "The Revenant"
3. Idris Elba, "Beasts of No Nation"
4. Sylvester Stallone, "Creed"
5. Paul Dano, "Love & Mercy"

will win: Mark Rylance, "Bridge of Spies"
should win: Paul Dano, "Love & Mercy"
should be nominated: Michael Shannon, "99 Homes"

Tom Wright

Benicio Del Toro should absolutely be a nominee. Certainly not Rogen.


Idris Elba definitely is going to be nominated. Paul Dano also if he is running for supporting , but I’m pretty sure he will go for the best actor category.


I really wanted Michael Keaton to win here but I saw Creed and Sylvester Stallone is brilliant, if he doesn’t win here I’m going to be disappointed


Why do you refer to a Mickey Rourke/Michael Keaton situation? Mickey Rourke isn’t on the cards, tho


Best supporting performance of the year: Paul Giamatti in Love & Mercy. That was an amazing performance. I loved Spotlight, but Giamatti’s performance was mindblowing, and much better than his role in Straight Outta Compton.


I won’t consider Mr. Stallone as the front runner for Best Supporting Actor. I’d runner see one of the Spotlight guys going home with the award. Maybe Michael Keaton or probably Mark Ruffalo :)


Jason Segel as David Foster Wallace should be MUCH higher on this list. He was incredible


really, Sylvester Stallone as the number 1 contender?


I think Jacob Tremblay should definitely get a nomination, he was so convincing of every emotion he conveyed, and at such a young age too.

Caine Guster

I believe that Paul Giamatti deserves a higher spot on this list.


This whole category will be BS if Paul Dano misses for "Love & Mercy." It’s a damn shame that he’s No. 7, when he should be a front runner.


I put Mark Ruffaloe at #1 because he was very good in spotlight and I think Michael Keaton is more in the leading role of the picture


Jason Segel (The End of the Tour), Jeff Daniels (Steve Jobs), Benecio Del Toro (Sicario), Sylvester Stallone (Creed), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies).
Or Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight, but I thought he was the lead in that one.

Exasperated Sigh.

I know that you’re going with however studios are campaigning their various nominees, but, seriously, Jacob Tremblay is the lead character in Room. It’s his story, and he’s great in it. No way he’s ‘supporting’ anything.

And ‘The End Of The Tour’ is a total two-hander; Jason Segel and Jesse Eisenberg are clearly both leads.

Every year there’s nonsensical nominations pushed upon the Oscars by campaigns. When are we going to have some real righteous rebellion against Category Fraud?




Dani at least deserves a nomination . His performance as Brian Wilson was brilliant

Brian W

Paul Dano should win this easily.


@Crannman Pacino was nominated twice for Michael Corleone but I see your point extremely rare and highly unlikely circumstance.


What about nick Nolte in walk I’m the woids


Stallone in 3rd ? No way . He’s already been nominated an Oscar in this exact same role , when was someone nominated for playing the exact same role before ? Jacob Tremblay’s performance in Room get nominated , no way it doesn’t .


Saw a screening of Hateful Eight and Walton Goggins steals the movie he is the one that will get Best Supporting Actor Nomination

lynn patzkowsky

Good list can’t pick too many good actors.

Dax Spencer

Paul Dano played Brian Wilson to perfection. He deserves to win for Love And Mercy.

Zack Reed

Why take Rogen out? He gave a fantastic performance. How can one performance dictate how another is perceived? Granted, he is an unlikely possibility but so was Steve Carell last year and even Robin Williams who took home two Oscars in the duration of his career. The awards are not based on the actor, they’re based on the performance. I vote bring Rogen back.


Take Jason Segal off this list — that is certainly much more than a supporting actor role


I think Michael Angarano should get a look for The Stanford Prison Experiment. He was really good in that film. Don’t know if in the end he deserves it but he’s worth mentioning. I don’t think anyone saw that film anyway but me haha. From what I’ve heard Ruffalo is the one who kills it in Spotlight more so than Keaton. I would go with Rylance, Ruffalo, Del Toro, Keaton and Dano. As an alternate throw in Jeff Daniels for Steve Jobs. Thought it was his career best stuff.


Rylance was way too stagy in Bridge of Spies, uncovincing and overwrought. Instead of wasting a nom on him, it should be Joel Egerton, Jacob Tremblay, Keaton, Ruffalo, and Benicio del Toro.


What about robert pattinson in queen of the desert and maps to the stars??


Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation.

Luke McGowan

Its so unjust that Ruffalo is best in show but everyone wants Keaton to make up for last year so he might not only steal the win, but take votes off Ruffalo and deny him even a nomination

Michele Hunt

How about Paul Dano for Love and Mercy? Although this was a lead role it looks like John Cusak is first in line. They were both great.


Go Tom"My Loves"Hardy

Derek G

I am sorry but if Idris Elba doesn’t get this award then the whole thing is fixed. No one could’ve seen that movie and not have thought that he deserves some kind of acknowledgement. The man played a magnificent, Hauntedly terrifying role. The movie also has some real significance in the world. The film is an eye opener and Idris delivered one of the best performances of the year by far.


Tom Hardy won’t be getting any oscar nomination for the revenant
.Mark my words


I think Paul Giamatti in both Love & Mercy and Straight outta Compton is really great

Renan Maia

DONALD SUTHERLAND for "Forsaken"! Ok??


Idris Elba deserves this award, come on mates, have you seen ‘Beasts of No Nation’? I don’t even care about the Academy’s taste at this point, Elba was triumphant, commanding, a father, brother, leader, devil. Thank you Fukunaga, Thank you Attah, Thank you Elba, and thank you to the rest of the cast of this extraordinary and life changing film.


Also, as of a month ago the Spotlight studio was going to campaign Ruffalo in lead….but that might’ve changed since then


You forgot Sam Jackson in the actual list (he’s mentioned in the blurb). Supposedly he’s got the juiciest part in "Eight" (can’t remember where I read that, though; might not be true) and we DO know Tarantino loves writing for him (QT has said Jackson and Waltz are his fav people to write for and, look, Waltz has TWO). I’d at put him above Russell.


Keaton NEEDS to win this year. Last year’s loss was criminal. He was robbed.


yea hoult for mad max. dude acted his ass off. n just because he showed off a bit in the 2nd trailer, stallone for creed!


Michael Pëna for Ant-Man


Is there anybody here commited to stopping me from doing that?


Chiwetel Ejiofor should be in consideration for The Martian. I’ve just seen it and his performance was fantastic.

Jose Andres

My predictions would be:
•Paul Giamatti, "Straight Outta Compton".
•Benicio Del Toro, "Sicario".
•Nicholas Hoult, "Mad Max: Fury Road".
•Jason Segel, "The End of the Tour".
•Robert De Niro, "Joy".

Paul White

Jonny Beauchamp for supporting actor in Stonewall!!! Horrible movie. Awesome Performance!


Samuel L. Jackson, HATEFUL EIGHT?

Patrick C. Taylor

At this point, I think they should just retitle the category Best Supporting Actor in a Lead Role.


We now know that A Bigger Splash will be released in 2016.


Do you guys really think Rogen will get a nomination here ? Highly doubt it …. Although would love to see it !


what about Ralph Fiennes for A Bigger Splash?


I’d really like to see Jason Mitchell get nominated for his role in Straight Outta Compton!


Jason Mitchell definitely deserves to be more than just a long shot. He was truly excellent in Straight Outta Compton. I hope he makes a push


Jason Mitchell was incredible in straight outta Compton


I don’t think i would consider Jason Mitchell’s role a supporting role…I thought he was a co-lead.


Replace Harvey Keitel with Kurt Russell and this list will be done. Elba v. Russell


If you’re talking about Suge Knight from Straight Outta Compton, that actor’s name is R. Marcos Taylor.


Joel Edgerton is a lock for black mass

Michael J

Jason Segel is the lead in "The End of the Tour," not Jessie Eisenberg. Moreover, Segal’s performance was excellent, while Eisenberg’s was nothing special.


2016 Oscar Predictions Best Suppording Actor:
1.Harvey Keitel-"Youth"
2.Tom Hardy-"The Revenant"
3.Robert DeNiro-"Joy"
4.Jeff Daniels-"Steve Jobs"
5.Kurt Russell-"The Hateful Eight"


Who is R. Marcus Jackson? There is no one by that name in Straight Outta Compton. Only R. Marcus Taylor for playing Suge Knight. I think that Jason Mithcell, playing Eazy-E would be a contender.


But isn’t Paul Dano the lead of Love & Mercy? :o
Also, I think we should wait for Ralph Fiennes in ‘A Bigger Splash’, word says it is something to look out for.

fede pik

What I meant to write was: Why is Mr. Segel placed i supporting category, while Eisenberg is a lead for End of the Tour?

fede pik



R. Marcus TAYLOR


Joel edgerton has a better shot than anyone else in black mass


Jason mitchell deserves to be nominated for the Oscars his portrayal as Easy E in straight Out of compton was outstanding.


Do you mean R. Marcus Taylor for Straight Outta Compton?


Who is R. Marcus Jackson? I hope you mean Jason Mitchell as Easy E from Straight Outta Compton.


It’s R. Marcus Taylor, not R. Marcus Jackson.


unpopular opinion but I thought Paul Giamati not great at all in straight outta Compton… Corey Hawkins is the guy you want here. Most impressive part of that movie. Looked like Dre too haha


Jason Mitchell for Straight outta compton needs to be added as well.


Based on reading the script the assumption is that Samuel L. Jackson has the leading role in The Hateful Eight, not a supporting role.


My favorite part of this article … "Though we really know nothing." Yeah, ain’t that true.


Tarantino said the performance that impressed him the most was Demian Bichir


Isn’t Segel the lead?


Now that "Our Brand is Crisis" comes out this year, I think you should add Billy Bob Thornton to this list.


Personally wanna see Oscar Isaac for Ex Machina. He was the best part of that movie imo.


Oh God, if Seth Rogen won supporting actor and Jason Segel won best actor, that’d be great. To see two Freaks and Geeks up there would be awesome.


Paul Giamatti for "Love & Mercy".


John Cusack for "Love & Mercy".


Nick Nolte for A Walk in the Woods.


Nicholas Hoult is great, a completely different person in Mad Max.


1. Jeff Daniels (Steve Jobs)
2. Kurt Russell (The Hateful Eight)
3. Ralph Fiennes (A Bigger Splash)
4. Emory Cohen (Brooklyn)
5. Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
6. Tom Hardy (The Reverant)
7. Kevin Bacon (Black Mass)
8. Benedict Cumberbatch (Black Mass)
9. Christoph Watlz (Tulip Fever)
10. Harvey Keitel (Youth)
11. Bradley Cooper (Joy)
12. Benicio del Toro (Sicario)
13. Mark Lynace (Bridge of Spies)
14. Dominic West (Genius)
15. Bruce Dern (The Hateful Eight)
16. Oscar Isaac (Ex Machina)


Paul Dano in Youth, but the oscar goes to Oscar Isaac sure


1.- Benicio del Toro – Sicario
2.- Seth Rogen – Steve Jobs
3.- Tom Hardy – The Revenant
4.- Samuel L. Jackson – The Hateful Eight
5.- Bradley Cooper – Joy




Mark Rylance in ‘Bridge of Spies’ for sure. Hugely respected theatre actor considered to be in the same echelon as Olivier. Finally breaking into film a should gain some considerable recognition


What about Robert De Niro for Joy?


Take Seth Rogen out. I’m sorry, I still haven’t gotten over the debacle that was The Interview. To offend everybody one year and possibly get an Oscar nomination the next? Not gonna happen.


Tomás Durito por El Revenante

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