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Oscar Predictions 2016 UPDATE

Oscar Predictions 2016

On Academy Award nominations morning, Twentieth Century Fox had a good day. “The Revenant” led the field with 12 nominations, more than expected, because the movie landed a surprise nod for first-time nominee and Supporting Actor Tom Hardy (a sign of strength) along with every possible technical category. (Arguably, the actors branch rewarded Hardy for his amazing year, including “Mad Max: Fury Road” and “Legend”). Altogether with “The Martian” (seven), “Joy” (for 25-year-old Jennifer Lawrence, the youngest actress ever with four noms to date), and Fox Searchlight’s “Brooklyn” (three) and “Youth” (one), the studio nabbed an astonishing 24 nominations. While Fox handled foreign territories, Disney managed the domestic release of “Bridge of Spies” (producer Steven Spielberg’s ninth nomination), with six nominations including Picture, as well as Lucasfilm’s “Star Wars: Force Awakens” (five), Pixar’s “Inside Out,” (two), and Pixar animated short “Sanjay’s Super Team,” for a studio total of fifteen.

Warner Bros.’ “Mad Max: Fury Road” scored its expected 10 nominations including Best Picture and Director. (Distributor Warners can also claim Supporting Actor frontrunner Sylvester Stallone for MGM/New Line’s “Creed.”) But the duel of the titans between Miller and fellow septuagenarian Ridley Scott was not to be. Although “The Martian” landed seven nominations, including Best Actor Matt Damon, Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay, there was nothing for Scott, who went on to lose at the DGA to A.G. Iñárritu, for his second win a row after “Birdman,” the first in the guild’s 80-year-history. 

This is as dramatic an omission as Ben Affleck’s directing snub for “Argo,” which led to that film’s underdog status and eventual Best Picture win. The Academy directors are a snobby group, and seem to have given the directors who also write (whether credited or not) the advantage: George Miller (“Fury Road”), Adam McKay (“The Big Short”), Lenny Abrahamson (“Room”), Tom McCarthy (“Spotlight”) and last year’s “Birdman” winner Iñárritu (“The Revenant”). 

While Fox has turned the narrative of “The Revenant” into a story of an artist’s triumph against formidable odds, they weren’t able to give “The Martian” that same cred. Only twice in Oscar history has a director won twice in a row: John Ford (“The Grapes of Wrath,” 1941, and “How Green Was My Valley,” 1942) and Joseph L. Mankiewicz (“A Letter to Three Wives,” 1950, “All About Eve,” 1951). Will the entire Academy go for Iñárritu? He did pick up picture and director wins for “The Revenant” at the BAFTAs, but was not nominated for SAG Ensemble (Leonardo DiCaprio did win) and did not win the PGA. “Spotlight” took SAG and “The Big Short” took the PGA.

In a year when Best Picture and Director could split,
I’m betting Australian auteur Miller wins this one for his long career, from the original “Mad Max” through Best Picture nominee “Babe,” Animated Oscar winner “Happy Feet,” and now the superbly crafted and executed action spectacle “Fury Road.” Does the genre count against him? Well, that’s why it might not win Best Picture. Is he too much of an outsider, living in Australia? Maybe. But “Fury Road” has been picking up guild wins (not PGA or DGA), and will take home many tech Oscars. Neither “The Revenant” nor “Fury Road” was nominated for screenplay, mainly because they dialogue-light visual spectacles.

Indie Best Picture contenders “Brooklyn” (three, Searchlight), “Room” (four, A24, which also got four nominations for “Ex Machina” and handled doc frontrunner “Amy”) and “Spotlight” (six, Open Road) prove yet again that voter passion and appreciation for skill can also triumph over scale. Alas, “Carol” didn’t make the cut (six, The Weinstein Co., which also notched three for “The Hateful Eight”).

“Brooklyn” star Saoirse Ronan (her second nomination, after “Atonement”) will compete against first-timer Brie Larson in “Room,” who should win for her layered performance as a kidnapped mother trapped in a shed with her five-year-old son. “45 Years” veteran Charlotte Rampling slipped into Best Actress without SAG, BAFTA or Golden Globe nominations, no mean feat; it’s her first nomination. The Academy actors often make room for a respected European thespian like Juliette Binoche or Marion Cotillard. 

Supporting Actress is harder to call: will “Carol” star Rooney Mara (her second nomination, after “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”) beat first-timer Alicia Vikander in “The Danish Girl” (four, Focus Features), who also starred in “Testament of Youth” and “Ex Machina” this year? Or will respected Golden Globe and BAFTA winner Kate Winslet, who was nominated for Universal’s “Steve Jobs” along with Michael Fassbender, carry the day? (Winslet has won before, Best Actress for “The Reader.”) “Steve Jobs” failed to land any other nominations, not even Adapted Screenplay for Oscar perennial Aaron Sorkin, which was a surprise. Clearly its strongest support came from actors. Both “Carol” and “The Danish Girl” could score some craft wins; Sandy Powell, with the most nominations for a living costume designer with 12, could win for “Carol,” if she doesn’t split the vote with “Cinderella.”

Lionsgate grabbed three tech nominations for “Sicario,” including Roger Deakins, earning his 13th nomination, the most for any cinematographer—he has never won. He competes with “The Hateful Eight” cinematographer Bob Richardson, who was not nominated by his guild, for his stunning Ultra-Panavision photography. His director Quentin Tarantino did not wind up with an Original Screenplay nomination, but 87-year-old Ennio Morricone, with an Honorary Oscar, is the favorite to win Best Original Score over 83-year-old “Stars Wars” vet John Williams, with a record 45 nominations for score, not to mention five songs! No other living person has logged more nominations, and historically, only Walt Disney beats him, with 59. 

As usual, the British had a good day, with 41 nominations for films and/or talent from the UK—a third of the nominations. Film 4 backed “Room” and “Ex Machina” (A24), “Carol” (TWC), “45 Years” (IFC’s Sundance Selects) and “Youth” (Fox Searchlight”), which landed no acting love but a Best Original Song nod. And the BFI Fund supported both “45 Years” and “Brooklyn.” 

Which movie has momentum at this stage?
Sometimes being the frontrunner is a negative, as small-scale talking heads drama “Spotlight,” with backing from actors, directors, writers and (significantly) editors, has to hang on to voter goodwill against two flashier late-inning releases with box office surges behind them, Paramount’s sharp political comedy “The Big Short” and frontier epic “The Revenant,” which boasts a surefire Best Actor win for Leonardo DiCaprio, getting a boost for suffering for his art.

Can “The Revenant” win Best Picture? That Iñárritu’s “Birdman” won last year counts against it—but that film lent New Regency backer Arnon Milchan (Best Picture contender “L.A. Confidential”) confidence to support the filmmaker all the way with his first big-budget production, to the tune of $135 million. With that money, Iñárritu granted cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki (“The Tree of Life,” “Gravity”) unusual latitude to pursue the best light for the best shot, no matter what the cost in stress for the cast and crew or the financial bottom line. ACE-winner Lubezki could win his third Oscar in a row. If “Spotlight” and “The Big Short” share support from the same quarter, then “The Revenant” could take home the statuette. 

One unfortunate narrative is 2016 Oscar voters’ lily-white selections. Yet again, as last year, among the actors there were no people of color, as Idris Elba did not land an expected supporting nomination for Netflix pickup “Beasts of No Nation,” which was shut out. (Netflix continues to dominate the doc category, with well-hyped “Winter on Fire” and “What Happened, Miss Simone?”) The one nomination for Ryan Coogler’s “Creed” was for Sylvester Stallone, reprising his 1976 role as Rocky Balboa (and earning standing ovations wherever he goes), while Universal’s commercial hit “Straight Outta Compton” scored only a Screenplay nod (for its white writers), but no Best Picture slot. With only eight nominees versus the PGA’s list of ten, “Compton” did not make the Oscar cut.

Nor did global blockbuster “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” which scored five technical nods including VFX and Score, or animated feature “Inside Out,” which will handily win its category, if not Original Screenplay, which should go to “Spotlight.” 

Yes, this year’s Oscar show on February 28. hosted by Chris Rock, will boast plenty of popular competitors to draw viewers. Just not ones that reflect the world we live in. 

Nominations for the 88th Academy Awards
Winner picks in bold
Performance by an actor in a leading role:

Bryan Cranston in “Trumbo” 
Matt Damon in “The Martian” 
Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Revenant” 
Michael Fassbender in “Steve Jobs” 
Eddie Redmayne in “The Danish Girl”

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Christian Bale in “The Big Short” 
Tom Hardy in “The Revenant” 
Mark Ruffalo in “Spotlight” 
Mark Rylance in “Bridge of Spies” 
Sylvester Stallone in “Creed”
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cate Blanchett in “Carol” 
Brie Larson in “Room” 
Jennifer Lawrence in “Joy” 
Charlotte Rampling in “45 Years” 
Saoirse Ronan in “Brooklyn”
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Jennifer Jason Leigh in “The Hateful Eight” 
Rooney Mara in “Carol” 
Rachel McAdams in “Spotlight” 
Alicia Vikander in “The Danish Girl” 
Kate Winslet in “Steve Jobs”
Best animated feature film of the year
“Anomalisa” Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson and Rosa Tran 
“Boy and the World” Alê Abreu 
“Inside Out” Pete Docter and Jonas Rivera 
“Shaun the Sheep Movie” Mark Burton and Richard Starzak 
“When Marnie Was There” Hiromasa Yonebayashi and Yoshiaki Nishimura
Achievement in cinematography
“Carol” Ed Lachman 
“The Hateful Eight” Robert Richardson 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” John Seale 
“The Revenant” Emmanuel Lubezki 
“Sicario” Roger Deakins
Achievement in costume design
“Carol” Sandy Powell 
“Cinderella” Sandy Powell 
“The Danish Girl” Paco Delgado 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Jenny Beavan 
“The Revenant” Jacqueline West
Achievement in directing
“The Big Short” Adam McKay 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” George Miller 
“The Revenant” Alejandro G. Iñárritu 
“Room” Lenny Abrahamson 
“Spotlight” Tom McCarthy
Best documentary feature
“Amy” Asif Kapadia and James Gay-Rees 
“Cartel Land” Matthew Heineman and Tom Yellin 
“The Look of Silence” Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen 
“What Happened, Miss Simone?” Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby and Justin Wilkes 
“Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom” Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor
Best documentary short subject
“Body Team 12” David Darg and Bryn Mooser 
“Chau, beyond the Lines” Courtney Marsh and Jerry Franck 
“Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah” Adam Benzine 
“A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness” Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy 
“Last Day of Freedom” Dee Hibbert-Jones and Nomi Talisman
Achievement in film editing
“The Big Short” Hank Corwin 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Margaret Sixel 
“The Revenant” Stephen Mirrione 
“Spotlight” Tom McArdle 
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey
Best foreign language film of the year
“Embrace of the Serpent” Colombia 
“Mustang” France 
“Son of Saul” Hungary 
“Theeb” Jordan 
“A War” Denmark
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin 
“The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared” Love Larson and Eva von Bahr 
“The Revenant” Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman and Robert Pandini
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
“Bridge of Spies” Thomas Newman 
“Carol” Carter Burwell 
“The Hateful Eight” Ennio Morricone 
“Sicario” Jóhann Jóhannsson 
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” John Williams
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
“Earned It” from “Fifty Shades of Grey” 
Music and Lyric by Abel Tesfaye, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville and Stephan Moccio 
“Manta Ray” from “Racing Extinction” 
Music by J. Ralph and Lyric by Antony Hegarty 
“Simple Song #3” from “Youth” 
Music and Lyric by David Lang 
“Til It Happens To You” from “The Hunting Ground” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga 
“Writing’s On The Wall” from “Spectre” 
Music and Lyric by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith
Best motion picture of the year
“The Big Short” Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers 
“Bridge of Spies” Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers 
“Brooklyn” Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Doug Mitchell and George Miller, Producers 
“The Martian” Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer and Mark Huffam, Producers 
“The Revenant” Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent and Keith Redmon, Producers 
“Room” Ed Guiney, Producer 
“Spotlight” Michael Sugar, Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin and Blye Pagon Faust, Producers
Achievement in production design
“Bridge of Spies” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo and Bernhard Henrich 
“The Danish Girl” Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Michael Standish 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Production Design: Colin Gibson; Set Decoration: Lisa Thompson 
“The Martian” Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Celia Bobak 
“The Revenant” Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Hamish Purdy
Best animated short film
“Bear Story” Gabriel Osorio and Pato Escala 
“Prologue” Richard Williams and Imogen Sutton 
“Sanjay’s Super Team” Sanjay Patel and Nicole Grindle 
“We Can’t Live without Cosmos” Konstantin Bronzit 
“World of Tomorrow” Don Hertzfeldt
Best live action short film
“Ave Maria” Basil Khalil and Eric Dupont 
“Day One” Henry Hughes 
“Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)” Patrick Vollrath 
“Shok” Jamie Donoughue 
“Stutterer” Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage
Achievement in sound editing
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Mark Mangini and David White 
“The Martian” Oliver Tarney 
“The Revenant” Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender 
“Sicario” Alan Robert Murray 
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Matthew Wood and David Acord
Achievement in sound mixing
“Bridge of Spies” Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Drew Kunin 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo 
“The Martian” Paul Massey, Mark Taylor and Mac Ruth 
“The Revenant” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Randy Thom and Chris Duesterdiek 
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson
Achievement in visual effects
“Ex Machina” Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington and Sara Bennett 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver and Andy Williams 
“The Martian” Richard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence and Steven Warner 
“The Revenant” Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer 
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould
Adapted screenplay
“The Big Short” Screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay 
“Brooklyn” Screenplay by Nick Hornby 
“Carol” Screenplay by Phyllis Nagy 
“The Martian” Screenplay by Drew Goddard 
“Room” Screenplay by Emma Donoghue
Original screenplay
“Bridge of Spies” Written by Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen 
“Ex Machina” Written by Alex Garland 
“Inside Out” Screenplay by Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley; Original story by Pete Docter, Ronnie del Carmen 
“Spotlight” Written by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy 
“Straight Outta Compton” Screenplay by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff; Story by S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus and Andrea Berloff

This Article is related to: Awards and tagged , , , , , , ,


Fred Holmes

How can you not include PLEASE GIVE in almost all of your main “prediction “catagories.
Arguably, PLEASE GIVE is one of the best reviewed films of the year.
Everyone loves this film, and I assume that would include Academy members as well. Nicole Holfcener, who you interviewed, and complimented, you see more as a “long shot”…..How fasinating.

I loved this film. It is the best film of the year, so far, and I respectfully request that you take a look at PLEASE GIVE one more time.
At the very least, I suspect it will quickly rise to the top of your Best Picture and Best Screenplay catagories.
thank you



Documentary: Restrepo

Foreign: Alamar

Stephen P

Hi Anne,

What about Tilda Swinton for I am Love?

Michael Herbertson

Michael Douglas for sure should be a mentioned as a contender for SOLITARY MAN
and Julianne Moore will be Best Sup. Actress ( if it goes that way) and Annette will finally winning for Best Actress for THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT. Each deserving and each long over due.


Tron Legacy is guaranteed a Visual Effects nom and honestly probably a win, should be as easy as Avatar with the Jeff Bridges/Benjamin Button work…


More or less a fanboy list. Inception will be more or less forgotten by December, as was the Dark Knight. Popcorn movie.

Anne Thompson

If there had been ten best picture slots (which I don’t like) the year of The Dark Knight, it would have been on it; Inception will be in play this year, as District 9 was last. At minimum, Inception will be up for a rash of technicals.

Agree that Tron (sight unseen) should be up for VFX awards as well.

Afraid I Am Love needed to be a bigger hit and would need a big push to put Swinton, who gives a masterful performance, into contention. Foreign films need to make a big mark to push an actress into the best actress Oscar race. Swinton is very popular and has won once, for Michael Clayton, so she is in the zone.

Much as I love Please Give there seems to be resistance: it too needed to do be a bigger hit.


DAve, everyone’s entitled to their opinion, but it is worth asking one thing? You speak in the passive voice, specifiying nobody. Who forgot “Dark Knight?” One can surely argue it wasn’t memorable, and there isn’t a need to qualify every statement one makes. I suppose from this context, you mean AMPAS voters.

But there were some observations that seemed peculiar from that standpoint.
It had considerable presence on top 10 lists from individual critics that year.

Some of the critics who mentioned in December, when it was apparently “forgotten”:

Manohla Dargis
Roger Ebert
Michael Phillips
Owen Gleiberman
Lisa Schwarzbaum
Peter Travers
Wesley Morris
David Germain
Lisa Kennedy
Richard Roeper
Peter Rainer

It was runner-up for Best Picture at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. It got nominated for Best Picture at the PGA and Best Director at DGA. National Board of Review, BFCA, and AFI singled it out as one of the best movies of 2008.

I find it interesting that all these groups mentioned it when it was apparently “forgotten.”

As for “Inception” being a ‘popcorn’ movie, that’s a defensible view. If by popcorn movie, we mean escapism and entertainment are the goals, rather than engagement with substantial ideas. Sam Adams wrote a fabulous piece on Salon that covers the film over several thousand words. He holds the view that the puzzle is fun and challenging, but there isn’t a thematic layer beyond or all that much to think about.

I find it, nontheless, worth noting some thoughtful commentaries that find much thematic content.

Anne Thompson

Toy Story 3 is based on characters originated in Toy Story 1 and 2, and thus is considered an adapted screenplay, as sequels tend to be. Disney confirms this.


Surely Toy Story 3 would go under Original Screenplay, it’s not an adaptation.

molly davidson

very sad to see Andrea Arnold’s Fish Tank released this year in usa not mentioned, Katie Jarvis and Andrea won great recognition for this film, voted best British Film, over an Education, which was up for best film oscar last year. As it has been said, perhaps not an “Oscar type film” but would loved to give the accadamy credit for picking great film whatever the subject matter. A Baffta and Cannes Dury Prize over Inglorious Bastards ( also an Oscar nominee ) must mean it should be considered, I hope the voters remember the Director Andrea Arnold, and Best British newcomer (over Carey Mulligan) Katie Jarvis and wonderful Cinermatography Robbie Ryan. Please give this independant film a shot.

Duncan Houst

Consider me crazy if you want to, but I have a deep rooted feeling that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 is going to be nominated for Best Picture. If we look at last year, we had Up, Avatar, District 9, Inglourious Basterds, and The Blind Side nominated for Best Picture. This year, so far we only have Inception and Toy Story 3. We don’t want to suddenly forget why we expanded to 10 nominations in the first place. It was so this type of film that audiences go for would have a shot. At least three spots MUST be taken by Box Office hits, or the Academy has failed, and we can pretty much say goodbye to the Oscars because nobody will watch them anymore.

Brian Whisenant

Maybe I am crazy, but I really think “How To Train Your Dragon” is in the Best Pic race.

michelle m.

I think SECRETARIAT might sneak into the Best Picture race…based on the positive buzz coming out of all the early screenings.

jacob c

Client 9 is absolutely brilliant. Best doc of year hand’s down, Saw it at Tribeca. It is a mindblower-amazingly well made


All Good Things as a best picture dark horse? Really?


So Sam Rockwell is being considered for Best Actor and Hilary Swank isn’t. The film is centered around Swank’s character and she is leading the entire film – how the heck does that not warrant a concsideration for her. Shame!!!

Besides Rockwell should be in the Best Supporting Actor category and NOT Best Actor!!! This isn’t the story of Rockwell’s character – it is told through the fight and struggle that his sister (Swank) went through to get justice for her brother. This is her story!!! It is 100% a leading role for Swank with Rockwell playing the pivotal supporting role.

Finally how come there is no mention for Julianne Moore in either supporting or lead. The whole reason why Annette Bening is being considered has to do with her two recent losses at the Oscars. Moore is equally as deserving as Bening is in that film and both should be equally recognized!!!


If TRUE GRIT turns out to be a halfway decent western, then that’ll be my only horse in this race. And that’s a big if.


wait! you don’t believe in “the fighter” as contender

Anne Thompson

When I see The Fighter, I’ll believe it.

Nick Mayor

The reason the Academy raised the number of nominees to ten was because of all the flack over The Dark Knight not being nominated. The real issue was that The Reader should not have been nominated in the first place. In recent years, it is absurd to have even five nominees, let alone ten. Last year there should have been only 3. Many of the nominees were simply garbage. These film festivals mean much less than industry folks claim. It’s like having the MIss America pageant with only 13 states. Many festival winners do not do well come Oscar time.


Kristen Stewart for Welcome To The Rileys should definitely be included in this. It definitely shows she is an amazing actress and is a very good movie !

Anne Thompson

I agree that ten best picture nominees is not a good idea. But the Academy is committed to it for three years–at least, I know exiting executive director Bruce Davis was–let’s see what happens.


I definitely think ‘If I Rise’ from 127 Hours is a contender for Best Original Song. It’s so haunting and beautiful.


Leonardo Dicaprio is long overdue for an Oscar. End of story.

ari candido

by Ari Candido Fernandes

Best Photography

Best Actor, Flávio Bauraqui

Official Selection

Submitted for the


you got the best picture WAY wrong – Biutiful’s #1 – by a LONG SHOT – this film hits ALL the marks and hits ’em dead on….there’s been nothing like this film in YEARS – maybe since the Godfather….

Jordan Welch

Toy Story 3 script is very realistic and the Story touched on rejection, Insecurities, desparation and hope. teaching us to be nice because you never know who will come through for you in the future. It got more grown-up drama then The Social Network and Toy Story 2.

Jesse Eisenberg performance in The Social Network
is the best he did great job.






Looking forward to seeing updates in every month.

FYI,I’d like to post some possible Oscar contenders this year.

ASHES(It’s shooting now and will be completed by September):Although director is not famous(Mat Whitecross),but the cast(Ray Winstone, Jim Sturgess, Lesley Manville, Jodie Whittaker(Attack the Block) and Luke Evans) is excellent.Here is early info.

Further info:It’s a father-son story.Producer also calls “Ashes” a “road movie” and further describes it is a thriller noir.Sturgess plays the son of an Alzheimer’s victim, played by Winstone. Manville, Whittaker and Evans are supporting. It is comfirmed Coldplay will also score the film.I think it will be contender for acting and score、at least.
(Here is Jim Sturgess interview on the set and more info and link to Winstone and producer interviews.

UPSIDE DOWN(I think it’s completed now): director is relatively unknown(Juan Diego Solanas),but he is a Cannes/Cesar winner for brilliant short film”The Man Without A Head”.And UD has great cast.Jim Sturgess,Kirsten Dunst and Timothy Spall(although he is not listed on the IMDb cast list yet).Crew is top-notch.It’s very unique fantasy tale.”A man searches an alternate universe for a long-lost love from his youth.”I’m pretty sure it’s visually stunning film.Contender for tech categories,at least.If it’s good,it will be contender for Best picture.
(*This article is very useful and it has the video of director’s awards winning short film(although some part of this article indicates it might be released next year,but it’s not correct).

*Here are some pictures of Jim Sturgess on the set of UD.

Sorry for the long post.But I think these two films are worthy to wait.

consindered flim wacther

Where’s the fianal Harry potter flim in this?
What is the piont of the Oscars any way? It’s a plan bais compention!
At least give the final HP movie, the Oscar it desevers!




Love your blog Anne, but I must say that I would think that Midnight in Paris is a firm front runner at this point in the ‘race’. Having said that, it is July and the race is as exciting as watching paint dry.


Glad to see Kirsten Dunst on the contenders list. She really deserves the nomination and possibly a win for her bravura performance!


Love your site. Saw a screening of Drive tonight. OMG. Doesn’t the director get on the list? What about Albert Brooks? Amazing movie. Also should be considered for music. Thanks


I agree you missed out Drive for supporting actor, cinematography, actor, director and long shot picture


I think that Michael Fassbender (Shame), Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon) and Carey Mulligan (Shame) may also have chance to get Oscar nominations.

Steve G

Is Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus a Frontrunner for a Supporting Actress nod?


I Think Marion Cotillard should be nominated this year to best supporting actress. She is more talented and gave better work than Shailene Woodley, Sandra Bullock, Amy Ryan, Octavia Spencer, Janet McTeer.
It's stupid ignore her other year as was with Nine and Inception.


Drive should get a lot more nominations – directing, score, Gosling and Brooks for actors, cinematography. It was just a really brilliant movie and deserves a lot more attention from the academy!


Drive – Best (Director, Actor, Supporting Actor)


Supporting Actress- Jennifer Ehle, Contagion


War Horse in both sound edit and mix


So Drive doesn't have any buzz in Hollywood right now?


Seriously folks! DOMINIC COOPER – DEVIL'S DOUBLE!!!!!!


So much is wrong with this list, I don't even know where to begin.


Where's Charlize Theron? Oh come on, Glenn Close??! Ugh, her stupid narrative for being nominated is such B.S.– you can get a career prize when you are in a GOOD film or you give a GOOD performance in a film. Take Gary Oldman for example. Why is he being shut out? Close gives a mediocre performance in an extremely boring and overall bad film. I really hope the actor's come through and take Theron over Close. This category is shaping up to be the over-the-hill category.


You write that Woody Allen's pic is "unlikely to score much" beyond >> best pic, director and
writer nominations…" Well, c'mon. That ain't much?? As Charlie Chan said, "Nut easy to
crack often empty."

Anne Thompson

Glenn Close is by no means a lock–when Albert Nobbs opens the critics will pull its pants down and she could get hurt by that–Janet McTeer is a safer bet. But Young Adult did not get the love from SAG, a telling sign. Golden Globes are less indicative of where Theron is than SAG. She gives a terrific performance as a hateful character, is part of the problem. The movie, which I admire, makes people uncomfortable. And the Academy is packed with seniors. That's why smart indie demo movies we admire like Young Adult and Drive (a violent genre film) don't necessarily play for them.


I think its very foolish for anyone to be counting out ELIC… That film is not out of the running bc a few critics didnt get what they expected. They seem to be punishing it for not being ready in time to screen sooner. Bottom line, When you have a first time actor like Horn, with that type of material, a performance being that good, you better believe the director (if not horn himself) if that director is Stephen Daldry to get a nod!

saw see

NOT a single truly daring, fresh or essential picture to be had.

MEANWHILE, as those Siberian winds crack down on Tibet,
Manchuria and North Korea and ALLLLL the prison camps,
organ harvesting ops, and enforced EUGENICS 'facilities',
Hollywood BALKS from the staggeringly relevant 60th Anniversary
of the

——————————-KOREAN WAR——————————–.

'–The list IS alive!' —-YES! the list of PERPETRATORS.


Anne, in regards to your most recent comment about Albert Nobbs and Glenn Close– I could not agree with you more! How in the world did she get a SAG and GG nomination? The BFCA had it right by not nominating her! The film is very bad, borderline horrible, and it's rocking a measly 40-something percent on Rotten Tomatoes. That's J. Edgar level bad! Just because something reeks of a desperate nomination does not mean it should be rewarded. I really hope, for the sake of all that is holy, that CHARLIZE THERON gets in. Anne, YOUNG ADULT was one of my favorite films this year. Why must SAG be so uptight? They failed to nominate MICHELLE WILLIAMS in BLUE VALENTINE last year. Is it because the film made them very uncomfortable? Because it's like putting a mirror up to yourself? Shameful, really. I hope the ACADEMY reverses that decision and nominates Theron.

Can't wait for next weeks OSCAR TALK!


Going in to see "Dragon tatoo" I thought Charlize had the actress awards for the season wraped up! But wait , rooney Mara gave a performance that if you've seen both performances you would feel stupid putting Charlize in the conversation,
It's not that charlize is undeserving, it's more that for Mara
We see a perfect storm! Character development-execution and an ability to make the viewer twist in their seat while watching.


the easiest pick is Brad Pitt for MONEYBALL (long career, does good things for those in need, married to AJ, also did TREE OF LIFE, is brave enough to not be Photoshopped at times, and is gorgeous and charming).

If Close gets nominated, she could very well get one of those "career" awards (she should have won for Dangerous Liaisons), plus she plays a man and has shepherded this project for what 15 years. With the reviews for THE IRON LADY, Streep will be nominated but won't win (I mean, we all know she'll be back up for something next year or the year after). If there's no Close, I'm guessing Viola David for THE HELP. The only caveat would be whether a vengeful voting block wants to kick Fox Searchlight for dumping MARGARET.

Chris Plummer will win Best Supporting as a career award. (I'm surprised that Viggo is not on your list.)

I don't really see how anyone can beat Jessica Chastain, with what, FIVE, very well reviewed performances in 2011, which covered an enormous range.

Cinematography goes to THE TREE OF LIFE, because the voters have to give it SOMEthing.

Astonishingly, BRIDESMAIDS will win Best Original Screenplay.

For Adapted Screenplay, Sorkin won last year so he's out. It's going to go to Payne as a consolation prize as it's the only Oscar The Descendants will win.

Director — oh so tricky category. I think this may be a Fosse/Coppola year where Picture doesn't match with Director. So we're really looking at Scorsese/Spielberg/and yes, amazingly enough, David Cronenberg (Payne gets the Screenplay osscar so he's out. Fincher, no chance even for a nom and I love Fincher. I live in NYC and I'm actually feeling zero buzz in the air about THE ARTIST, but then I may just be stupidly misinformed. So we can eliminate Spielberg because of the reviews. Scorsese vs. Cronenberg, me thinks – I would be stunned if it went to Cronenberg, but then he does have a body of work and this will be one of the few films Oscar voters could actually vote for, for him (needless to say, he was not nominated for THE BROOD – I guess the Academy felt a little queasy watching Samantha Eggar lick the placenta off her mutant baby). I have to hold off on that one; and there is the issue of whether HUGO peaked a tad by not opening on Xmas Day or that Friday.

Picture — I'm thinking HUGO (which would bring about the Fosse/Coppola Syndrome if Cronenberg or someone else takes it from Scorsese).

But no matter what, it's Pitt's (Money)Ballgame.

love you Anne

Sam B.

Where's Rooney Mara in all of this? Although she may not win Best Actress, she gave a remarkable performance in Dragon Tatoo, and at least deserves a nomination. I personally believe she deserves it.

Trent Ledford

My Oscar prediction are different from this. Some of the movie should not get nominated. These are ten other movies that should get talked about for Best Film and Director. I think at least three of these movies should get a nom for best film and director. These movies showed art.

Super 8
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Midnight in Paris
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Source Code
The Muppets
My Week With Marilyn

I will be discussion the oscar as the day comes closer on blog and on Facebook and twitter.


My own list for Best Actress nominations would include Melanie Lynskey for her lead role in 'Hello, I Must Be Going'. She has been acting in close to forty films, but so far, a big breakthrough has eluded her. This is her first proper lead role since she took on the challenge of portraying Pauline Parker in 'Heavenly Creatures', and getting a mention in this category will only serve to make industry figures in the movie business acknowledge her as a leading lady of the future.


The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo should have more nominations. It's by far the best movie of the year and perhaps the best movie from a novel of the last decade.


I want The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo to win best Director and Best Picture. A nom for Mara would be nice.


Viola Davis could beat Meryl Streep OR MICHELLE WILLIAMS. I think Anne always deliberately forget to mention Williams, who's in the race very much.


Am I the only one who thinks that Melanie Lynskey deserves a nomination for 'Hello, I Must Be Going'? Surely, there must be others who would like to see her rewarded with the chance to reach A-list leading lady status. I have been waiting seventeen years for it to happen.


I hope LEONARDO DICAPRIO wins this oscar. He is phenomenal in J. Edgar and long overdue too.


If Rooney Mara isn't nominated and at least a strong contender it will be a travesty. A truly fantastic performance.

I also think that Michael Hazanavicius and Alexander Payne are locked in for a nom but the other three spots I'm not so sure. Fincher certainly has a chance, but I think Malick will definately get a spot (the Academy usually enjoy his work and The Tree of Life was a triumph of a return) and I wouldn't count out Tomas Alfredsson or Nicholas Winding Refn either. Drive I would guess is going to be nominated for cinematography as well.


where is "Take Shelter" on this list tisk tisk


where do we go now and "Declaration of War"(France) are the great movie. one of them should be win.


I agree with declaration of war but in darkness is great movie and where do we go now is fabulous .they should be front runner .one of them should be winner a oscar


oh how I hope Melissa McCarthy makes it in for 'Bridesmaids' = BAFTA+SAG+BFCA // don't stop her now!


I really want Bennett Miller to get a Best Director nomination. I'm starting to doubt it will happen at this point, but I'm holding out for a miracle.


I saw befor a sepration and i think it has a very nice story and I really want ASGHAR FARHADI to get a best FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM


I'm confused: Tate Taylor isn't a lock for an Oscar nomination for Director, because he wasn't recognized by the DGA (wasn't nominated for their award), yet Terrence Malick — who also wasn't nominated by the DGA — makes your list of likely nominations? Gotta say, between the two films — "The Help" and "Tree of Life" — I enjoyed "The Help" far more, and thought that Malick not only resorted to a lot of his standard "tics" (the whispered voice-over, etc.), he was as self-indulgent as a film school student with his overly long shots of the universe (symbolism should NEVER be that heavy-handed in a film). Here's hoping that Malick DOESN'T get the nod for that flick (it was more of a cinematography stunt, than a directorial — i.e., editing, etc. — effort), and that Talyor, for "The Help", gets it instead (along with Allen for "Midnight in Paris", Hazanavicius for "The Artist", Payne for "The Descendants" and Scorsese for "Hugo", or Speilberg for "War Horse").


I posted my own predictions hours before the announce…some similarities, and also some differences with IW. Check and comment:


The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo will get a BP nom.

Name susan

Your Comment
Please respect the memory of three murdered boy scouts. Do not vote for Paradise Lost 3. It is a slanted and incomplete portrait of the three who killed, confessed, were found guilty and pled guilty to these barbaric murders.


Tilda Swinton, Albert Brooks. best Screenplay – Steve Zaillian“The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo,best original screenplay 50/50,take shelter , Project Nim (documentary ) are out . it’s silly ides of march is nominated for screenplay? (Because of Clooney?) pitt is producer of moneyball ,so where is Johnny Depp for hugo’s producer .his name and company are as producer in list and movie’s website.


it's silly list .where are Tilda Swinton, Albert original 50/50 ,take shelter . Project Nim (documentary ) ? ides of march is nominated for screenplay? ??????


Midnight in Paris will win Best Original Screenplay instead of The Artist.


Best animated short film will go to: "The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore" William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg.

Check it out here:


We've set up a prediction game that includes the Oscars. You can play and make your own predictions at


The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences determined Friday that it will officially credit four producers, instead of three, for “The Tree of Life.” so where is Johnny Depp for Hugo ‘s producer .his company ‘s logo is after GK .what’s the hell. why they didn’t say any thing? he should be nominated .

normita astronomo

all beautiful films especially "HUGO" tree of life . i thank all who contributed in making such movies that make sense.


I have a hard time predicting a movie that has no words for a screenplay win, I might have to see where WGA goes for that one before I make that prediction. I'm still not sure about the sound awards, its a weird selection this year. After the DGA and SAGs I definitely think that Direction and Best Actor have swung to Hazanavicius and Dujardin. I do think the Foreign Film will actually go to the favorite this year as its also an emotional and personal film.


in the actress category: I find it hard to believe that "The Help" will score both acting categories – and nothing else. I do believe that the supporting actress award will go to spencer, but in the leading role my money is on Michelle Williams – who is a well respected and loved acrtress (and so she should be. she's very good). Also – she's an actress playing an actress. Cate Blanchette won an oscar for a similar thing a few years ago. And although the film itself ("My week with Marilyn") isn't the moving film it could have been, I think that it is her time to win (And BTW, if I had a vote, I would vote for Kenneth Branagh. But Christopher Plummer is so strong in the race, I don't see anyone beating him).

As for the foreign language category: I'm from Israel, and I should say "Footnote". But in recent years the Academy has been notoriosly known for Not awarding the world's favorite (This year – Iran). Instead, the Academy is a sucker for mushy emotional films. This is why my money is on Canada.

Ryan Sartor

Did you mean to pick dragon tattoo or hugo for sound editing?


just ____A SEPARATION____

Arthur Wachholz

One of the worst pictures I have ever seen. How it was nominated I'll never know.


Martin Scorsese should be winner. Hugo is very beautiful and in darkness and bullhead are great movies. I like bullhead is a fabulous .


Paradise Lost 3 will win Doc feature. I think Dujardin (did you see him on Leno Friday night–God what a charmer!), Davis, Plummer, will also win. However everybody thinks Spencer is a "lock" for supporting actress–just like everybody thought Lauren Bacall was 15 years ago–BUT a French woman upset her (Juliette Binoche) and I think Bejo is right on her heels and could definitely win in an "Artist" sweep.


bullhead and in darkness are greater than of them should be winner


I hope theses aren't the winners. It's too obvious and predictable, with no surprises, but that's kind of what they do anyway.

Justen N.

The Artist as Best Picture
Clooney as Best Actor
Streep as Best Actress
Plummer as Best Male S.A.
Spencer as Best Female S.A.
Hazanavicius as Best Director
'Books' as Animated Short
Rango as Animated Movie

Judy Candelario

George clooney will win . Hope the foreing film a separation wins great movie , indeed great drama . Glenn close will
Take an oscar as well . Hope best movie is the desendents i loved it


b.A. Will be viola davis
S.a. will be octavia yes
thats all the awards for thr help.
B.A. should be clooney but it will be that charming and sexy french man.
S.A. Will be max, the academy loves to award these type of roles.
B.P. Will be the artist
B.D. Will go god the field is too tough but im hedgging my beats on the french.
b.f.f. Will go to a seperartion


"The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom" was very average. Be very hard to call it Oscar worthy filmmaking.


Other than Acting and Best Picture, why did The Help get Screenplay, Directing nor Cinematography nomination???
Hope Viola Davis wins Best Actress.
Octavia Spencer has Supporting Actress.
Everyone saying George Clooney got Best Actor but I think Jean Dujardin got it.
And Christopher Plummer for Supporting Actor.

After The Help winning everything at the SAG awards, it could be a surprise and a upset if they win Best Picture but knowing it won't happen since they didn't get Best Directing, nor Screenplay nomination!!!!!! The Artist will probably win!


I don´t think too, that the Academy will give 2 acting Awards for "The Help". Spencer is a lock.


I can't believe Clooney was even nominated for that performance.

Hugo was just disappointing, although it could take home many of the technical awards.


2013 Best Actress Judy Davis The Eye Of The Storm

Juha Tapani

So…The academy members totally ignored "Melancholia", "Shame", "We Need To Talk About Kevin" and "Drive"…What is there to expect?
…But then again…
1. Jennifer Jason Leigh 0 nominations
2. Linda Fiorentino "The Last Seduction" ignored
3. "Once Were Warriors" ignored
4. Kieslowski`s "Three Colours: "Blue", "White" and "Red" ignored
5 .Composer Michael Nyman 0 nominations…Especially for "The Piano"
6. Jerry Goldsmith`s best score for "Basic Instinct" ignored
7. "Body Heat" totally ignored….!
8. Lars Von Trier`s only nomination for music…What a joke !
9. Kathleen Turner…Only 1 nomination compere to Meryl Streep`s. Shameful !
10. Nicole Kidman should have won for "Moulin Rouge" or "The Others". She should have been nominated also: "To Die For", "Dogville", "Birth" and "Eyes Wide Shut"
11. Tom Cruise gave his best performance in "Magnolia" and lost to Michael Caine. Nothing to do with religion…Right ?
12. Sandra Bullock and Julia Roberts have won for best actress. What next…Paris Hilton ???
Maybe next year Academy members actually watch movies, forget the politics, religion, popularity and pc. and bs. We shall see


Where's Barbra Streisand for "The Guilt Trip"?


Will Gravity be able to be a contender for the Oscars, since it was moved to a unknown 2013 release date??


i don't think austria is going to submit a french language film.
that would be weird.


I don't see Anne Hathaway's role in Les Mis as a Leading Role at all. Definitely supporting.

Anne Thompson

Depends on how much screen time Hathaway gets; they're leaning on her in the advance trailers.

As for "Amour," while it is in French, Michael Haneke is from Austria and it is a France/Germany/Austria co-production; Sony Pictures Classics says the latter country will submit it for the Oscar.

Anne Thompson

Thanks, I took out "Gravity."


Have you heard anything about "What Maisie Knew" starring Julianne Moore?


Melanie Lynskey was absent from the 'Contenders' list for Best Actress in a Leading Role for 'Hello, I Must Be Going'. She is long overdue for recognition by the Motion Picture Academy of Arts and Sciences.


I'm confused. As far as I can tell, only one of these films has been released yet (MOONRISE KINGDOM). So how can anyone tell what's Oscar-worthy or not? I haven't even HEARD of most of these films.

Anne Thompson

At Sundance and Cannes every year, various films are advanced into Oscar contention via reviews and festival reaction before they are actually released. That's what I'm working with for now. Beyond that, you look at each film's elements, the participants' track records, who's releasing certain movies and when.

Tevi Supangat

No Tom Cruise in 'Rock of Ages' in supporting roles ? hmm.. I think your head must be hit by some electric guitar and amplifier….

oogle monster

So Gatsby is nominated for acting and best picture, yet Luhrmann is out for director? Come on now Anne, he is at least a long shot.


After I saw 'Beasts of the Southern Wild,' I left the theater thinking, 'If Dwight Henry isn't nominated for Best Supporting Actor, I may die.' I don't think I've ever seen anything more powerful or heartbreaking by a male actor.


for sure.. the iconic Whitney Houston for her last movie sparkle!! she deserved it!!


wondering if Anne Thompson has seen one of the highly anticipated films of the fall "Perks of Being a Wallflower". From advance screenings, people are saying the film is moving and delicately told (though the trailer can be deceiving) and that the young cast of Logan Lerman, Ezra Miller Emma Watson and Mae Whitman deliver great performances. Maybe Chbosky has a shot at adapted screenplay at least and a long shot for acting noms for lerman and miller. Or will people dismiss this bec they think it's just another story about teens w/out being aware of the dark themes in the novel?


What about TDKR? If all those shitty films were nominated last year, TDKR deserves to be nominated… at least for best director!


Can not believe I'm saying this but I do agree with you about Kristen Stewart up for supporting actress .
She was excellent in OTR as well as Garett Hedlund .


Michael Caine, not Canine.

Only a typo, but What a typo it is.

Aaron SG

Better add HOPE SPRINGS to picture, original screenplay, lead actor(Jones) and actress(Streep), and supporting actor(Carrel). The reviews are strong on the film, screenplay and performances.


Not sure why people keep placing Hoffman in the lead actor category for "The Master" it seems pretty damn obvious that Phenoix is lead Hoffman is supporting, the continued confusion here frankly baffles me.


How on earth is Django Unchained considered a long shot? It should be in the top 3 contenders with Lincoln and Les Miserables.


Anne Hathaway in Leading Actress? Really? She'll go supporting, for sure (and will probably win).


This list is a bit silly. I mean, the big part of this movies haven't even come out so how you know that they worth an oscar nomination? And then, Kristen Stewart? Really? Are we talking about the same expresionless actress? And why not Robert Pattinson for Cosmopolis, he has had millions of really good critics for his perfomance in this Cronenber movie.


yheaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa baby kristen stewart is the best actress in ON THE ROAD SORRY……. ROB IS NOT GOD …SORRY IS NAME IS NO HERE


come on kristen come on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


rob nominated????????????' jajajajajajajajaj that vampire is not more like vampire ja ja ja so funny




Looks like you are very much excited about "Six Sessions". Well for me it will only get 1 nomination and that would be for John Hawkes as an Actor in a Leading Role. That's it, no more no less.


"Six Sessions" was a working title. The film is called "The Sessions".


what about BRAD PITT in KIlling them softly and JUDE LAW in anna karenina ???


how can you describe actors or movies as "long shots" or "favorites" when no one has seen them? Several of these movies aren't even finished yet.


So The Hobbit isn't a contender anymore? I mean I'm not saying it's going to be the greatest movie ever or even as good as the LOTR, because only time will tell, but Peter Jackson returning to the source material that made him a household name and won him a crapload of Oscars, I mean c'mon it has the hype.


Has anyone seen the Fred Schepisi film "The Eye of the Storm". Any comments on that? im curious.


cloud atlas ?


I just want to say that Marion Cotillard should win this year because she shot "Rust and Bone" in only 1 month, without making a great preparation. There are no artifices in the movie, no make-up and one of the most powerful performance of all time. She proved once again to be the greatest actress of her generation post-Maryl Streep/ Jane Fonda and Jessica Lange. TOM 54.


The Great Gatsby??????


i say Harvey goes for it(he's got PTA this year) and campaigns Hoffman in the lead aswell. it's just too cheap of a move to put him in supporting. The Venice award should help them campaign them both for the lead, have them both nominated, and Phoenix for the win(the film is his character's story). if it weren't for DDL, my heart wouldn't have been split on who i want to win BEST ACTOR.


Everyone in Hollywood has to kiss the feet of the best actress in Hollywood that is Kristen Stewart!! … Jennifer Lawrence, Keira Knightley, Emma Stone, Emma Watson are overvalued. Kristen is the best


It's surprising to see the prejudice instead of a more objective view. Just because you didn't like The Impossible doesn't mean it isn't a contender. It's much better placed than Anna Karenina which you have liked but several many didn't. Impossible has more chances of being liked by Academy than Anna, and that also places Naomi Watts in contention.


Argo, which is a good film but trails in comparison to Gone Baby Gone and The Town, is going to get The Best Picture Oscar because it makes Hollyood look good. But unless it's a disaster, which it won't be, it's toughest competition will be Zero Dark Thirty

Diane Williams

Actor in a leading role
Michael Shannon, "The Iceman"


Anne Thompson is a twihard. Of course she'd include Kristen Stewart. So predictable.


Actor in a supporting role : Tom Cruise in Rock of Ages. A better bet than Michael Caine in TDKR


KStew is ONLY on A. Thompson's lists, always lol. And please, Anna Karenina? It's 65% at Rotten Tomatoes! I think this blog is totally off. The woman has no idea how to judege films and actors.


If you don't have Daniel Day Lewis as a front runner for Spielberg's Lincoln, I question whether you've actually ever seen the Academy Awards before.

Maggie Gyllenhaal is not supporting in "Wont' Back Down," nor is Viola Davis the lead. You have them reversed. The film is great, but award possibilities might be drowned out by political controversy.

Paul S

I hate you all.

Anne Thompson

It's early days yet, and I make it clear in my intro that I will not name anything or anyone a front runner until I've seen it.

Anne Thompson

May I respectfully point out that 1) "Anna Karenina" has not yet opened and been reviewed by all the major critics and 2) that it matters less what critics think–although they certainly help– than what the Academy voters like, and they respect craft. "Anna Karenina" is perfect Oscar fodder: cinematography, costumes, production design, and possibly, Keira Knightley and Jude Law. BAFTA will go for it, as they did "Pride & Prejudice" and "Atonement," from the same director and star.

Brett Wiese

Excuse me, but where the #E!! is Hyde Park on Hudson, and Bill Murray as Best Actor? He's playing FDR for pete's sake!


What about Robot & Frank, Killer Joe? Incredible performances, directing. Especially Frank Langella in Robot & Frank.

Anne Thompson

Robot & Frank and Killer Joe may be too small to register with voters.

And Brett, I have seen Hyde Park on Hudson and it won't happen. It will get execrable reviews. Murray's fine, but the movie isn't.


There is no chance that The Sessions is getting nominated over Les Miserables, The Hobbit, and Lincoln. Have you ever seen the Oscars? Switch Marion Cotillard for Quvenzhane Wallis, who was great in Beasts of the Southern Wild but very young. If she does get a nod it will be in the supporting category like Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit. Where are the actor nominations for The Exotic Marigold Hotel? Rachel Weisz for The Deep Blue Sea and Kristen Stewart for On the Road aren't long shots, they're impossible shots. Another possible contender for best picture or actor contenders is Zero Dark Thirty.


Further reason to hate the Oscars and their shitty tastes in films. You want to see a great film from this year? See "Compliance."


I'm shocked that Marion Cotillard is being considered a 'long shot' for best actress, with all the buzz around her in Rust and Bone I thought for sure she'd be a front runner? I really hope she at least get's a nomination.


Bill Murray….Hyde Park on the Hudson? He's due for a little Academy love, no?


Is Rust & Bone not a strong bet for a Foreign Language film nomination anymore? I really wanted a rematch between Haneke and Audiard…where one of them ACTUALLY wins!

Jason Bourne

this list is lame.


What about Richard Gere for Best Actor?


Why not Paranorman and Wreck-it-Ralph for best animated feature? Granted Wreck-it-Ralph hasn't been released, but both the Lorax and Brave were met with negative reviews, so I think Best Animated Feature is really up for grabs. My money is on Paranorman. The animation was beautiful and it was very entertaining. I can't imagine it not getting at least a nomination.


This Anne Thompson is a big joke. She called 50 Shades of Grey a 'highbrow' novel. LMAO. And you're taking this housewife seriously? Right.


FWIW, Silver Linings Playbook has won the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival. Past winners include The King's Speech and Slumdog Millionaire, so make of that what you will.


why not Robert Pattinson for Cosmopolis, he has had of really good critics for his perfomance in this Cronenber movie.


Actor in a Leading Role Robert Pattinson_ Cosmopolis

Oogle monster

Anne why is Marion a long shot?

Brett P


I'm curious about the first poster's question. Why is Marion Cotillard a long shot? She is definitely more known by Academy voters than Riva, which isn't to say that they couldn't both get nominated.

bob hawk

Looking over this very long thread, I find it amusing that so many people are so "sure" about some films that either are not even finished yet or have only had private screenings (and are probably still at some stage of post production). Why aren't these Oscar predicator lists limited to films that have at least had screenings at one festival — and allow these lists to evolve naturally?


Actor in a Leading Role Robert Pattinson_ Cosmopolis


why not Robert Pattinson for Cosmopolis, he has had of really good critics for his perfomance in this Cronenber movie.


I am so very excited to see "The Silver Linings Playbook"
I am a HUGE Jennifer Lawrence fan. I'm so glad this movie is seeing the recognition it currently is receiving. I really hope this movie does receive nominations for Best Picture! Maybe Jennifer will finally get the Oscar she deserves! Personally, I think she was robbed of the Best Actress award for "Winter's Bone." Bradley Cooper is going to be great as well :)

I agree with the idea that Robert Pattinson should be considered for Actor in a Leading Role. He received outstanding reviews for Cosmopolis.

I don't think "The Dark Knight Rises" is that much of a long shot.
I can see it receiving some nominations at least.

Overall all my bets go on "The Silver Linings Playbook"
It has already won the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival! That's big news considering previous winners have been Best Picture winners "The King's Speech" and "Slumdog Millionaire."

Alex Thomas

Really enjoy seeing Moonrise Kingdom and Wes up there at the moment. I'm not sure how The Sessions will fare when it comes to Best Picture but it does seem to have a couple of acting slots wrapped up imo!

Anthony S.

I thought Robert Pattinson gave an outstanding performance in Cosmopolis. And no, I never watched Twilight. Also, Paul Giamatti as supporting actor in Cosmopolis.


The Master has no chance of getting nominated.


Beasts will most certainly garner a best picture nom. If you think otherwise you are sadly mistaken.


Robert Pattinson is an outstanding actor, and deserves at least a shot at the award for Best Actor in a Leading Role. Especially after the year he has had – throw that right in Kristen's face.


Best Actor In A Leading Role:

Anne Thompson

The Hunt doesn't come out in Denmark until 2013. It and the very deserving Cannes winner Mads Mikkelsen will be in contention next year. Denmark has selected A Royal Affair, also starring Mikkelsen, as their Oscar contender for this year.

We'll have to see if the critics come through for McConaughey and which film they decide to focus on. I will catch up with Killer Joe, Detachment and Robot & Frank but the fact that I have not yet seen them is not a good sign, because I have been to many festivals and seen more movies than most average Academy members. They have to go through deep piles of DVDs every year and many smaller films wind up at the bottom. That's why critics' prizes are so crucial.


If Kristen Stewart gets an Oscar nomination, it will be a sign of the Apocalypse.


Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Zero Dark Thirty
9. Django Unchained
10. Skyfall

1. Ben Affleck
2. Tom Hooper
3. Paul Thomas Anderson
4. Ang Lee
5. Steven Spielberg

1. John Hawkes
2. Daniel Day Lewis
3. Joaquin Phoenix
4. Denzel Washington
5. Hugh Jackman

1. Jennifer Lawrence
2. Quvenzhane Wallis
3. Marion Cotillard
4. Emmanuelle Riva
5. Keira Knightley

1. Philip Seymour Hoffman
2. Tommy Lee Jones
3. Leonardo DiCaprio
4. robert DeNiro
5. Alan Arkin

1. Anne Hathaway
2. Helen Hunt
3. Maggie Smith- Hotel
4. Judi Dench- Skyfall
5. Pauline Collins- Quartet

1. The Master
2. Django Unchained
3. Amour
4. Moonrise Kingdom
5. Promised Land

1. Argo
2. Silver Linings Playbook
3. Lincoln
4. Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Les Miserables

Anne Thompson

I can't in good conscience put something in the front runners list without seeing them first. Even "Les Mis" or "Django" or "Zero Dark Thirty," for which I harbor very high hopes.


Melanie Lynskey, Toni Colette, and Elle Fanning are "long shots," but Michelle Williams (TTW) isn't? Uuum, OK.


I still don't understand how you could possibly say Marion Cotillard is a contender or the fact that in your top five there are no previous winner or actress in a biopic.

First, Cotillard has already "The Hollywood Actress Award" and Hollywood gave her nothing less than 3 tributes just in north-america. Her buzz surrounding "Rust & Bone" is still very much alive more than six month after it's world premiere at Cannes unlike Kristen Dunst last year for example.
Second, I can't imagine five actresses without at least one nominee in a biopic so Helen Mirren is definitely in. (Mirren would never blow such a role).
And Honestly saying that Q.Wallis deserves a recognition for one role at 8 years old it's just something I can't understand. Some actresses suffered for years before finally getting the popularity they enjoy now and It would be shame to not take in consideration other roles some did by the past and for which they were ignored. So I would say:
Emmanuelle Riva / Marion Cotillard / Jennifer Lawrence / Kiera Knightley / Helen Mirren


These are great predictions. Most people agree that you shouldn't count Marion Cotillard out and I have to say I agree. I think she was terrific in "Rust& Bone". I actually found her even better than in "La vie en rose". I have a big crush on this actress mostly because she is very talented but also because of her filmography. Without any contest she has one of the best post-Oscar career I've seen in decades.
I absolutely loved Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook ! She is just crazy and so lovable !
And Emmanuelle Riva is ferocious in "Amour" but it mostly come from the movie itself which is just one of the most accomplish movie ever made.
My very personal choice would be Cotillard but if Lawrence or Riva gets it, I would say "it's well deserved"


Les Mis has to be considered the favorite at some point. I think it's a race between it and Lincoln.

Lauren Bennett

I am really surprised that you made no mention of Travis Fine's film 'Any Day Now'. I and everyone I know that saw it, thought it and Alan Cumming was outstanding! I felt the same way about this picture that I did when I first saw The Kings Speech… Your thoughts?

Fred O.

So many mentions of films that haven't even been released yet!
Surprised at the absence of Matthew McConnaughey for Actor in Killer Joe.
And how about documentary features?

António Freitas

Picture : Lincoln ; The Master ; Argo ; Les Miserables ; Life of Pi ; Zero Dark Thirty ; Cloud Atlas ; The Hobbit ; Silver Linings Playbook
Lincoln will win
Director : Steven Spielberg ; Paul Thomas Anderson ; Ben Affleck ; Peter Jackson ; Kathryn Bigelow
Paul Thomas Anderson will win


You really need to get Lore on your list; and enough with Kiera Knightley (just horrible)

Anne Thompson

1. Anna Karenina still hasn't opened yet. It was well-received in Toronto. If it opens and Keira Knightley is slammed, well, there it is. But it's still a weak field. As usual.

2. I need to see Lore and want to see Lore because I loved Cate Shortland's her first feature, Somersault, which broke out Abbie Cornish.

3. The Master is falling fast. I talk to Academy members. Many are underwhelmed. It didn't play well at the Academy screening, and it's not a hit. The actors will be nominated. Even if Joaquin Phoenix shoots his mouth off.

4. Nobody has seen Les Mis, Zero Dark Thirty, Hitchcock, Django Unchained.

5. Still have to see Killer Joe.

6. Doc shortlist is still to come.

7. Have screener of Any Day Now and will watch. It's on the pile!

Anne Thompson

When Hyde Park on Hudson comes out it will be slammed by critics. No Murray this time.

Take This Waltz is a case where Michelle Williams gives a great performance in a small film that was not universally embraced by critics or audiences. Sarah Polley made the film she wanted to make–idiosyncratic and spiky, with an odd trajectory that was not necessarily satisfying. I applaud her for that. But it doesn't an awards film make. If year end critics groups decide that Williams delivered the best performance of the year, I will eat my hat.

Movie Lover

Adrien Brody (for Best Actor) and Sami Gayle (for Best Supporting Actress) give Oscar-worthy performances in "Detachment." I just hope people get to see the film. I have never felt so moved by a story.


Cotillard is in the top 3. The only thing that "disadvantage" her is the fact that she won 5 years ago and It's in French but is it really enough to stop her? Maybe she won't win but a nomination is 100% sure. She proved her win wasn't a one time thing with great performances in indies and blockbusters movies. Since the trailer was released her name was on everybody's list and still is for 7 month now. her name is everywhere in the awards discussions. I'm a big fan and saw her movie at Toronto; Best performance of the year and her best work, better and totally diffrent from "La vie en rose".


Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor is the surest bet thus far. He's so dedicated to fully immersing himself in a character. Here's a great interview where he explains the process of becoming Lincoln.


What about "On the Road" for best pic, screenplay adaptation, director, and cinematographer? Not to mention some supporting acting nods. This film looks far more interesting than "Lincoln" and "Silver." And "Argo" and "Sessions" are vastly over-rated.


Trampire? is a joke? this world is ending!!!


Critic David Denby did not "fall for" the leads in Silver Linings Playbook


I think Anne Hathaway for "Les Miserables" should be in there too!


Kristen Stewart, despite popular belief, is a really good actress. She deserves an Oscar. On The Road took a lot of balls for her to do. She's one of the most passionate actresses in Hollywood and she cares about her movies more than most actors and actresses. Take your opinion of Twilight out of the equation and judge her for the actress that she is, not the story that you like/ don't like. There's more to an actor or actress than one movie or one franchise.

Tom D

I've been watching Bond films for most of the 50 years. Skyfall is the best Bond film, ever. Bond or not, it is an outstanding movie. Judi Dench and Mr. Craig are both outstanding in their roles. I never thought I'd see anyone as more James Bond than Sean Connery. I've changed my mind. Perhaps it won't be considered because it is a Bond film, but if so, its a real shame. Also, as far as independents that no one has seen, please consider "Least Among Saints" (, for veterans coming home.


JOHN GOODMAN in Argo. FABULOUS!! How is Helen Hunt a "supporting" actres in The Sessions. Doesn't make sense.


Is Michael Fassbender not in contention for his performance in Prometheus?


One needs to really needs to watch,observe,disect every frame of Sally Field's performance in Lincoln. She is Mary Todd Lincoln. Go beyond the film and read about Mary Todd Lincoln, then watch the film again.


ANNE – why is the Hobbit not included in your Best Visual Effects field.. The Hobbit video blog recently reminded us that LOTR always win VFX awards last decade.


Under documentaries: Surprised that "Bully" isn't listed.

Anne Thompson

I added "Bully," thanks.

Anne Thompson

I updated Visual Effects to include the entire shortlist of ten. "The Hobbit" is now on there.

stu freeman

Waddyamean "Django" is "the last one out of the gate"? Where's Gus Van Sant's "Promised Land" which is due out 12/28 (and, albeit less likely, Dustin Hoffman's "Quartet" which is due out the same day)? Is the BUZZ on these films not loud enough for you? Personally, I believe that most any movie made by van Sant is worth at least two of Tarantino's, with or without Harvey's "push" behind it. Assuming that you haven't yet seen this film, please don't dismiss its prospects by not citing it as a preemptive contender. It wasn't that long ago since van Sant's "Milk" scored at the Oscars after all.
Stu Freeman
Brooklyn NY


The Dark Knight Rises should be at the top for cinemaatograhy


the actress field is not at all weak ! Its you who perceived it as such.


the actress field is not at all weak ! Its you who perceived it as such.


Anne, I love you but you keep pushing Bradley Cooper as the major frontrunner in both your posts and OscarTalk. While I enjoyed the film, Mr. Cooper may suffer from the same syndrome that touched Mr. Fassbender last year in shame: Too Much Going for Him. He is incredibly good-looking, People's Sexiest Man Alive, now a major player in Hollywood, and dating the hottest women in the world. I believe the thinking goes, this guy has too much going for him, that last thing he needs is an Oscar Nomination.

Last year, Mr. Fassbender looked like a slam dunk, but then was altogether missing in action from the Best Actor category. I think it may happen here too in that while Mr. Cooper is really coming into his own, it's not the earth shattering performances that others are demonstrating this year. Couldn't the category end up being: Day Lewis, Hawkes, Jackman, Washington, and then either Pheonix, Cooper, or the French guy rounding out the category? Just an observation.

Keep doing what you're doing Anne!


Haha Thompson is still pushing KStew so hard. Too bad only twihards are buying it. All for the hits!


If Joaquin Phoenix is not nominated, I just cannot take the oscars seriously anymore.

Dylan Moran

Wow, you really must have not liked the master, totally got snubbed on this list.


The Perks of Being a Wallflower isn't even a contender for Best Adapted Screenplay? For shame.

Michael B.

I'd cast a big vote for Tom Hardy as "Bain" in "The Dark Knight Rises".


Here is my list Best Animated Nominees Guaranteed
Wreck it Ralph
Rise of the Guardians
Madagascar 3

Life of Pi
Dark Knight Rises
Marvels Avengers

Dark Knight will win all the Technical Awards
(sound editing Sound Mixing) (Dark Knight did win both catagories in 2008)


I am disappointed not to see Melanie Lynskey in the list of Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actress. She has thirty-seven film credits on her IMDB page: surely that makes her deserving of some recognition by the Academy of Motion Pictures' Arts & Sciences. Lynskey is long overdue for a chance to reach leading lady status. Todd Louiso stuck to his guns, and cast her as the main character in 'Hello I Must Be Going', and I think that the AMPAS should recognise her ability to carry a film as the leading lady.


["As always, no film becomes a "frontrunner" on this chart until I have seen it. "]

Why are you the last word on who is a front runner for an Oscar nomination? And why is Sally Field being considered for a Best Supporting Actress nod?


Why isn't "Moonrise Kingdom" perceived as a box office success like "Midnight in Paris" was last year? The first one grossed $45 million at the domestic box office on a $16 million budget and the latter grossed $56 on a $17 million budget and a couple of re-releases that "Moonrise Kindgom" didn't have and would've definitely pull it ahead. Also people are again not paying attention at the fact that a movie only need 5% of passionate voters to put it at number 1 to get the nod, which I think is definitely possible for a movie like this. After the film gets the Golden Globe Best Comedy/Musical, BFCA Best Film Nomination and the PGA nomination maybe people will finally predict it.


The best movie I've seen for a looooong time is End of Watch. The performances are extraordinary.

Juha Hovilainen

Where is Emmanuelle Riva…No Golden Globe nor SAG award nomination…
Is her chance for Oscar nomination over…Helen Mirren over Emmanuelle Riva…Seriously?
Happy that Nicole Kidman is still in the race.

Anne Thompson

Emmanuelle Riva or Rachel Weisz could still turn up…and I doubt Helen Mirren makes it.

Moonrise Kingdom is seen as hugely successful indie flick. It will show up at Oscars, probably in original screenplay and possibly even as best picture nominee.

Teddy Wyman

As an avid Lord of the Rings fan, I'm really disappointed to find that The Hobbit will probably not get nominated for Best Picture. After seeing Argo, Lincoln, and The Hobbit, I can say that The Hobbit probably does not deserve the nomination. Still, it would've been nice, as I found it just as enchanting as LOTR. Maybe one of the next two will get nominated.


Micheal Fassbender was amazing in Prometheus.


I'm sorry but these predictions are ridiculous!

Non sense!


I didnt like the hobbit movie that much, but I think Richard Armitage was just perfect in that one. He is a fantastic actor, a real star, atleast he should be nominated for best supporting actor. Maybe he is not that well known but im so tired of people like PS Hoffman and R de Niro. Its always the same people.


The Perks of Being a Wallflower for best adapted screenplay nomination easily..


Matthew McConaughey even being considered with not a single mention of Javier Bardem in Skyfall?


What about Struck by Lightning? Chris Colfer for best original screenplay.

Kelly Garrett

Anne, something to consider: Emmanuelle Riva is the only French actress in contention. After roles in American blockbusters like Batman and Inception, and smaller, but beloved films like Midnight in Paris, Marion Cotillard is a great Hollywood actress.


I don't think Jackman will get in. Phoenix will take his spot.


I really love to see more love for The Impossible,it is really a sincere,strong and beautiful movie,the story,the direction,the almost real special effects and the memorable performaces of all the cast. Im really hauting about the power of Naomi Watts performace,she is really marvelous,she gave this year best female performace, you have to see to believe. WONDERFUL.

Kurtiss L. Robinson

I thought Denzel Washington was astounding in Flight. I also enjoyed the film even though it was not a feel good experience. I think Daniel Day Lewis is amazing. Ever since My Beautiful Laudrette he has proved again and again what talent really is.


God, this is the dumbest list i've read so far, i'm blown away by how biased and ignorant those choices are

steve handley

Short live action movies – where's Dave Roddham's epic COWARD?

Chris L.

Voters have a chance to make a powerful statement on Jafar Panahi's behalf, whether his movie is a traditional documentary or not. It would help redeem many of their other choices (for foreign film, etc.)


The fact that Les Miserables is getting so much Oscar buzz seriously sets me off. Next to The Hobbit, it was seriously the most disappointing film of the year. Hands down.


I just saw Django last night. It was over-the-top violent, of course. But, the storyline is incredible and Christoph Waltz is pure genius. And I don't understand why Jamie Foxx is getting no recognition for this. Just because he's black doesn't mean he should be able to pull off the slave role easily. He's phenomenal, as is DiCaprio.


To me, Jenniffer Lawrence was miscast in Silver Linings, and Maggie Smith plays all her characters the same way whether Harry Potter, Downton Abbey or The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. She is just the same.


I am surprised there is nothing from Stephen Chbosky's magnificent ' The Perks Of Being A Wallflower'? I know it's a long run for it to win anything but I would so love for it to at least get nomination or a consideration.


Awful awful AWFUL predictions. Skyfall for Best Picture??? And only 8 noms for BP total? And no DiCaprio nom for Django. You are in for a rude awakening tomorrow morning.


TERRIBLE predictions! You know NOTHING about Hollywood!


What about Jafar panahi's This is not a film on the category of best documentary feature…?!
Come on… its been adored by many critics and indie critics


It happens every year Daniel Day Lewis will win because he is playing an American President they cant upset the politics. which is a shame because Hugh Jackman was outstanding and deserves to win.


And where is The Hobbit??


Even the bookmakers favor of Daniel Day-Lewis for exposing him so high odds. Not even worth the effort to make bets on his winning. But you can take a chance to put into other categories. The odds look better for bet on the Best Actress.




I think a major snub performance was that of Jean-Louis Trintignant. It's way better than Denzel's one. Jean-Louis creates a character that suffers so much in the inside but doesn't let his emotions get out, even if you can see in his eyes what he truly feels. Not many people can do that. But the Academy apparently doesn't like those kind of performances (see Ryan Gosling).
I thought it would've made sense if the Academy nominated him if Emmanuelle Riva got a nom, but one could say this also for John Hawkes (who is the major snub in that category)


The person who tried to write this article should do some research.

"Sympathy votes for Argo"?!

Pray tell just how many of these awards waited for the nominations to be announced to complete their voting.


Just one correction! It is not true that since The Emigrants (1973), a Best Foreign nominated movie also landed a Best Actress nomination. Whoever wrote this is forgetting the Brazilian movie Central Station (1999), which had its main star (Fernanda Montenegro) nominated for the leading actress category, alongside Meryl Streep, Cate Blanchett, Emily Watson and Gwyneth Paltrow!
Nice article anyway! Good insights! But let's see if Jennifer Lawrence really wins! She is the major contender, but Emmanuelle Riva has just won the BAFTA's Awards. Maybe she is a threat much more than what we imagine!


Met some old college classmates last weekend. They work in the industry. All of them has spoken to/heard of folks – especially the older ones – changing their Oscar votes in favor of Riva. They have been doing so in droves, apparently. Even more so after the BAFTAs victory.


best film:argo-lincoln
best director:ang li-spilberg


Me thinks Riva and De Niro are both on upward trajectories to victory. There's so much backstory for both. She has never been to LA before, her birthday is the day of the awards, will be oldest Best Actress winner ever. He … oh come on, who doesn't want him to be up on stage clinching his Oscar and saying to him: "YOU TALKING TO ME?!?"

tia maria

Think Riva will take away award for best leading actress, as BAFTA winners normally go on to win the Oscar as well


Uthinki – the social predicton game – has gone all out for the Oscars this year, posting a bunch of Oscars-themed questions. If you haven't played the game, the idea is to predict how other players will answer polls and trivia. You win if you can outsmart the crowd. Play now at

Kenneth Duckworth

As a Foreign Service Officer, I thank Ben Afleck for bringing to light – of only partially – a little known bit of American diplomatic history and shining a bit of light on behalf of the work we do in service to America. However, I do not think the film should win Best Picture, and that is because in an era where very few Americans bother to learn about history, it presents a fantasy about what happened during the Iran Hostage Crisis and how our Canadian allies helped our American diplomats escape. The Canadian role is downplayed for the story of a heroic CIA officer and a bunch of Hollywood operatives who pull one over on the Iranians. The final scenes of the movie, where the diplomats escape from Tehren with the Revolutionary Guard in hot pursuit never happened. Yet, many Americans will take this film as a rendering of historical truth rather than an adventure film dressed up in historic costume. "Lincoln," on the other hand, while also taking liberties with the actual historical narrative of what happened in the fight to bring about the 13th amendment, is basically true to the overall events and paints a good picture of the work the arm twisting and legislative skullduggery that often needs to take place to accomplish great things. For those wishing to know a bit more about the Iran Hostage Crisis, I recommend Mark Bowden's "Guests of the Ayatollah." For more on Lincoln and the 13th Amendment, "The Fiery Trial."


I've always enjoyed Tommy Lee Jones' movies, with one of my favorite performances of his being in Coal Miner's Daughter. That movie came out so long ago, but his work never ceases to amaze me, which is why I'll be tuning in this Sunday to cheer him on to winning Best Supporting role in Lincoln. I may be called into my office at DISH halfway through the Oscars, but thanks to my DISH Hopper, I'll just finish the awards on the go. I can turn my Smartphone or tablet into a mobile TV and watch live TV, my recordings, and once in a lifetime awards shows like the Oscars wherever I go.


It's taken the Academy 84 years to award just four leading actors (Hepburn, Bergman, Nicholson, Streep) with three Oscars and it took those actors three to five decades with multiple nominations to earn that very rare honor. So why is everyone absolutely convinced that Daniel Day Lewis has this in the bag? Because he's a great actor in a great role? So was Bette Davis in All About Eve, Spencer Tracy in Guess Who's Coming To Dinner and Marlon Brando in Last Tango In Paris, but the Academy didn't give them that third Oscar for their efforts. They never gave two of the greatest actors who've ever lived, Richard Burton and Peter O'Toole, even one competitive Oscar in their legendary careers. Pre-Oscar awards, critics and public opinion are not the Academy voters. For Daniel to do this, he'll have to beat these odds: at 55, he'd be the youngest to do it, he'd be the fastest to get there in just 23 years and he'd have to do it with the least amount of nominations, just five. It took the Academy nearly 30 years to finally honor Meryl Streep (arguably the greatest living actress in the world) with her third Oscar (in part because Harvey Weinstein went out and got it for her), so why would anyone think that they're just going to hand Daniel another one especially since he won just five years age? If he's accorded this in just his mid 50's, it sets him up to catch Hepburn and maybe even pass her. My hunch is that if were going to see a three time winner this year, it's going to be DiNiro whose 40 year career has earned him such an honor (and yeah, he has Weinstein out stumping for him too). And since it's taken the Academy over eight decades to bestow this very rare honor on just four leading actors, what do you suppose the odds are that they're going to do it twice (Day Lewis, DiNiro), in just one night? Another hunch? Keep your eye on Hugh Jackman. He too gave a performance that's been universally praised and he's amoungst the most beloved by his peers in the business and don't think that doesn't count.

P.S. There were a few more two time Best Actor winners than what you mentioned. There were nine: Fredrick March, Spencer Tracy, Gary Cooper, Marlon Brando, Dustin Hoffman, Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day Lewis, Tom Hanks and Sean Penn. In 84 years only nine two time Best Actor winners. Golly, it's hard to win two Best Actor trophies let alone three. Oh that's right, in 84 years, no male actor ever has.

Snooby Dooby Doo

Alas, the tide is changing!!!! Riva now has the support of the public, the Europeans, BAFTA, and apparently some Oscars voters. I now think it is a Riva-Lawrence battle too close to call. Hope Riva wins though.


Thanks for posting your predictions! I think you got all of them right except two? I'm making note to come back next year to get your input before casting my ballot!! You were right on!


This is inaccurate.
"Best animated short film

"Adam and Dog" Minkyu Lee
"Paperman" John Kahrs
"Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"" David Silverman
"Fresh Guacamole" PES
"Head over Heels" Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly"

Paperman won this one, I know because we were watching and we saw Paperman in Wreck-It Ralph and got pretty excited when it won.

I don't think Life of Pi should have won that much. I think the Hobbit deserves a lot of the wins.


Sorry but i haven't been able to take the Oscars Seriously for Years.

Dave Y

These seem to be very good predictions. Check out the ones at Awards Frenzy too.


You need to include springbreakers as a contender for best picture also James Franco for best actor for springbreakers


It'll be IMPOSSIBLE for Bejo to get another nomination before Cotillard.


I'm getting an overwhelming amount of favoritism in this list. Horrible.


Oh god please be right about Before Midnight, if only film series deserves Oscar attention its this one. Linklater, Delpy and Hawke make the perfect trio.


Did "MUD" get left out of this completely???


What about "The Hunt" and Mads Mikkelsen!?


What about Mud?? Best movie I've seen in years!!

LCA Film

Here is LCA Film's Best Picture Predictions:

We are rooting for 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street, American Hustle and Gravity, but our predictions might tell a slightly different story…


My Predictions:

Best Picture:

Winner: The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Fruitvale Station

Lee Daniels' The Butler

Inside Llewyn Davis

Saving Mr. Banks

The Book Thief

Labor Day

The Wolf on Wall Street

12 Years a Slave

August: Osage County

Best Director:

Winner: Ben Stiller – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Martin Scorsese – The Wolf on Wall Street

Ryan Coogler – Fruitvale Station

Jason Reitman – Labor Day

Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave

Best Actor:

Winner: Geoffrey Rush – The Book Thief

Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels' The Butler

Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station

Bruce Dern – Nebraska

Benedict Cumberlatch – The Fifth Estate

Best Actress:

Winner: Kate Winslet – Labor Day

Nicole Kidman – Grace in Monaco

Sophie N̩lisse РThe Book Thief

Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks

Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine


more tommorow


These kind of suck. Your frontrunners aren't frontrunners. Blue Jasmine won't be nominated and the Butler and Before midnight are questionable. Rooney Mara, Julie Delpy, Greta Gerwig, Michael B Jordan, Casey Affleck, Ethan Hawke and Madds Mikkelson will all not be nominated. MAYBE 1 of them will slip in and that maybe is only Michael B Jordan. A lot of the rest of these are also not very good.

Anne Thompson

At this stage when I have seen so few of the Oscar contenders, I am citing worthy candidates. Many things still must play out. As the year progresses and I see more films at the fall festivals and critics and Academy voters are more vocal and a consensus emerges, the list will change dramatically. Never count out Sony Pictures Classics or Harvey Weinstein. Both "Blue Jasmine" and "The Butler" are big hits and could wind up in strong positions at year's end, along with "Fruitvale Station."

Now that "Ain't Them Bodies Saints" is opening poorly, it will have a tough road. It could pick up critical support later in the year, which would drive Academy actors to watch screeners–assuming IFC sends them out. It's a beautifully made film with strong performances. But if it winds up tainted as a flop, that will hurt its actors' chances; I'm moving them out of the front runner slots.


It would be nice if you put the date you updated your prediction. It would also nice if you add like "screened" to the ones you put in other than "frontrunner" section, you know, so that we know you screened the film but didn't think it's a frontrunner.

Michael Thomas

Never mind, I see it, how the hell do I delete?


Before Midnight is a long shot? I'd put it as a frontrunner.




Blue Jasmine is frontrunner for best picture ! WoW ! I mean no doubt that Cate Blanchet's performance is an absolute lock on the front and Woody Allen's screenplay but the movie man, I mean have you ever considered Before Midnight should instead be on Blue Jasmine's place or be the fifth frontrunner


I think Anne should consider Marion Cotillard, she is fenomenal in the immigrant


Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave.


Brie Larson will not only be mom for an Oscar she will the Oscar for best actress


the film or the actor are not on this list, but 'All is Bright' should be up there and so should paul giamatti for the lead role.


How is Disconnect, not on this list? It is by far, the best film I've seen all year and Jason Bateman's performance is definitely Oscar worthy.


Cameron Diaz ! :D cheetah pet !rawr


So you're going with Juila Roberts in Lead huh? Even despite the Hollywood Film Awards nomination (yes I know they're bullshit) but it seems like she'll be pushed in Supporting?


FYC, Thompson.

Joe H.

Lone Ranger a frontrunner for Cinematography?? haha who wrote this list?

Daniel Delago

It's pretentious to give Oscar predictions on films that haven't been seen by the public yet. This list is filled with commercial Hollywood fare and not many indies. Toronto Film Festival this year was flooded with too many Hollywood films. Keep your focus on independent films, Indiewire…


I really liked how you put Brie Larson as a frontrunner for best actress. Too bad the academy has a boner for Cate Blanchett and will obviously give it to her.

(In her defense she did a good job, just not as good as Brie)


How the hell do you consider Nebraska such a frontrunner? The reviews aren't the same as sideways and the descendants. It's not going to make much money and doesnt seem too audience friendly. Yes it will probably be a good movie but it's not oscars and the reviews aren't strong enough. Especially not for director. I mean really. It's not even going to be nominated.


I'd love to see Harris Savides at least get a Golden Globe nod for Bling Ring. But thats just me.


Why isn't Amy Adams for "American Hustle" in the contenders?


I sugest you for the best foreign film "The Child Position"


"Gravity" as frontrunner for Costume Design? I think that must be a mistake. Nothing wrong in "Gravity"'s costumes but I mean, there are only three versions; two kinds of space suits and Bullock's underwears.


Why are Fruitvale and Hustle listed at Adapted? What were they adapted from?

And, being only "inspired" by a newspaper article, isn't the jury out on the category designation for Butler? Isn't TWC going for Original? And where is Dallas Buyers Club for screenplay, even as a long-shot? And, newsflash, Philomena is getting nominated for Adapted Screenplay.

Either I didn't get the memo, or this is a hot mess.

Anne Thompson

Yes, "Fruitvale Station" and "American Hustle" are categorizing themselves as original screenplays even though they are based on the lives of real people. They are not adapting published memoirs.


Swap out Emma Thompson and Judi Dench for JLD (long shot, for sure) and Brie Larson (not enough people have seen this gem). The Academy loves great British dames and stories that purports the magic of Hollywood.


Enough Said is not an Oscar contender. Guarantee it.

Anne Thompson

Why not? Because it's a romantic comedy from a woman writer-director starring two actors usually associated with television?

Scott Brooks

What about the strong performances of the child performers, film, and supporting actors in "The Inevitable Defeat Of Mister and Pete"?


I´m sure that Jake Gylenhall will be in an Oscar Contender, he is truly great in Prisoners.


So I am guessing you haven't seen the best film of the year Р'The Book Thief' with the Best Actress performance by Sophie N̩lisse, Best Supporting Actress performance by Emily Watson and Best Supporting Actor performances by Geoffrey Rush & Nico Liersch.


Pretty sure Jennifer Lawrence is a frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress.


Are your names in alphabetical order or in order of prediction?
It will be interesting to see how the steam starts to roll in the next week with LA board of Review, GG and SAG noms.


Gravity up for a cinematography award? When it was almost always a CG camera created by a VFX supervisor?


How is Jennifer Lawrence the frontrunner for BSA when she has won 1 critics award and Lupita Nyong'o has now won FOUR? Also, I see August Osage County is being underestimated. Critics won't love it, actors will. The actors branch is going to push that thing over, trust me.




I've seen all of the possible candidates. If you haven't seen Philomena, go and see why Judi Dench deserves the Oscar.


Leo among the top five, that's great to see. AMPAS, make this happen:-)


'The Spectacular Now' deserves an Oscar nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay. It was brilliant. Bummer that Miles Teller and Shailene Woodley aren't listed too!


Who can exceed Cate Blanchett? No one. Amy Adams is as appealing as cold toast and Way too old for the part she played…did they put baby powder all over her face to make her look younger…she looks ridiculous. Matt McC is perfect in Dallas Buyer's Club. As to 12 Years, if you read deeper you'll find that it was written by a ghostwriter, and to make the main character sound like a British aristocrat educated at Oxford is ridiculous. He may have been "educated" for the time but he was hardly the scholar they portray him to be.
And just out of curiosity, got any "new" plots in Hollywood? Slavery. Been there done that. Greed is good. Been there done that. The Book Thief…Nazis…Been there done that.

Gravity was the only thing that was original this year.


I would like to see Fantasia get nominated for Best Original Song for In the Middle of the Night. That would be a good look for her and her career.


fantasia better get a nomination


As a South African I am glad the Mandela film is not nominated because it is pure crap. British-made capitalistic exploitation of our history. Naomie Harris was nothing but an embarrassment unto herself, Idris Elba tried hard but his performance is not award-winning material.


You incorrectly state in your summary that Blue Jasmine got a BP nomination.


Congrats to Miss Jennifer for her nomination. Her character seemed so authentic and she once again showed that she can play characters that are extraordinarily complex. I'm very proud of her and I think she deserves her second Oscar.
Lupita was amazing and deserves her nomination. Her acting is different from Jennifers. Lupita seems more theatrical and it reminded me of Anne Hathaway at times. I felt as though I was watching a play rather than a movie. Her movements seemed slightly forced and choreographed. Sometimes I think all the training and education can diminish the portrayl of a character.
Jennifer would have my vote if I had the opportunity to do so.
I also think she may win because American Hustle had such a brilliant cast, but I don't think any of the other nominees can pull off a winin their categories. Jennifer may get more votes to honor at least one of the actors from AH.
I haven't seen all of the other movies. I love Julia Roberts and I think that she is fun to watch in most roles. I don't think this role was particularly Oscar worthy, but she will have more opportunites.


Why is everyone counting out "her"? That was one of the greatest films I have ever seen, 10 times better then 12 years a slave. It deserves this best picture award.

Juha Tapani

"Gravity" for best movie, director, editing, music, special effects, actress and cinemaphotography.
Will it win …No.


I think Lupita Nyong'o and Barkhad Abdi should win. They were amazing in their roles. EXTREMELY FANTASTIC. And for people like Barkhad and Lupita, this may be their only chance to ever get nominated much less win anything. Look at Cuba Gooding Jr. How many black men and women ever really get nominated or win an Academy? Give these guys a break, will ya? All you people going on and on about Lawrence being superb and more natural are just completed blinded and biased by her. She's already won an Academy Award. And natural? Really? Her acting was okay but her accent drifted in and out and she just sounded strange at some points. Her performance didn't really move anyone. It wasn't awe-inspiring, it wasn't jaw dropping, it wasn't touching, it wasn't sad or melancholic…It was just good. Nothing to hoo-hah about. Did you guys SEE Lupita and Barkhad? Lupita was just TRAGIC, SAD, INSPIRING, MOVING, TOUCHING and so heart wrenching! And Barkhad Abdi was just so believable and natural and just amazing. This was from a guy who had NO acting experiences!

In any case, films like American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street are just so god damned overrated, IMHO. They were about a bunch of degenerates who went around conning people and selling penny stocks for 200 of its original worth and just partying, drugs, booze, sex and glorifying all that shit up. They were entertaining stories, don't get me wrong, but are they necessary? Do they serve a higher purpose than just art and entertainment? No, they're fun to watch but you don't get anything out of them. They're not films like The Fighter or Dallas Buyers Club or 12 Years a Slave or Precious. They don't move the audience. They don't make you cry and do a little soul searching. They're just gool ol' fun entertainment.


I don't know how Spike Jonze missed out on a director nomination – Her was beyond well directed, and the editing superb (the beats from comedy, to drama, to existential commentary was seamless). And how in the world, did Joaquin Phoenix not get a best actor nom for a performance like that – the guy is a modern day Marlon Brando. Also, the cinematography was some of the best – this film should have gotten 9 or 10 noms easy, and easily blows away 12 yrs a slave and Wolf of Wall St with regards to writing, directing, editing. Her is the best picture of the year if the Academy had any sense. Hopefully it does.

Vashti Dolan

This year it's a tough call. I think American Hustle will win Best Picture even though I think there are movies way more deserving. I went and made all my Oscar picks at PredictAny highly recommend it. It's a free and fun way to make your Oscar predictions.

James S.

Wow! Here we are, 5 years later, STILL talking about how Kathryn Bigelow one an Oscar because she's a woman. And coming from a woman, no less. Shame, shame, Anne Thompson; you should know better.

James S.

Or "won" an Oscar. Take your pick.


does it matter how they want to be perceived though- when the preferential ballot can produce an unintentional result? you didn't even mention that, and that seems to me like the most important factor here. isn't Gravity more likely to rack up those #2 and #3 votes needed to win in a close race? let's say people didn't pick Gravity or 12 Years as #1, then which of those two are they more likely to put ahead of the other? if they were using a normal weighted ballot i'd say 12 Years is more likely to prevail, but this preferential thing makes it a toss-up, doesn't it? i mean, the PGA showed that much


Nothing, absolutely nothing, looks worse than giving Best Picture to a movie that awards organization obivously doesn't like that much, but is affraid not to award. That's cowardice and cowardice never looks good. 12YS Best Picture wins are really starting to look ridiculous for that reason, since it isn't winning much else, while its nearest competitor is clobbering it. This pattern has been obvious from Golden Globes to BAFTA – they like Gravity more but are affraid not to award "important" movie, espeically since the one they like is sci fi, a genre that never won Oscar for Best Picture.

Every year is going to have an important movie or two and quirky feel-gooder or two. And if there's a very strong sci fi, it'll be, once again, passed on in favor of what has been awarded before. AMPAS awarded race issue with Crash, so it isn't like 12YS is due for a win for this particular important issue. I say this is the year when AMPAS should finally break the barrier between themselves and sci fi and award sci fi. They obviously like Gravity very much. Grow balls and do what GG and BAFTA had no courage to do – award the movie you like, don't give in to blackmail that boils down to "if you don't vote 12YS you're racist". You are not racist. It's your right to like it less and therefore put it lower on your ballot.

Sci fi is one of the most lucrative genres, whose boxoffice allows studios to make those important and quirky movies that, sadly, always bust sci fi's hopes of winning best Picture. There are many masterpieces in this genre including Gravity. Voting Gravity the Best Picture will not bring shame in the long run. Quite the contrary, it can revigorate AMPAS that's been critized for having lost touch with general public.


Cate Blanchett has won NYFC, LAFC, NSFC, majority of regional awards for Best Actress, the Golden Globe, BFCA, SAG and now BAFTA. No Best Actress has ever gotten this far to lose the Oscar. She has won more awards than any other nominee in all categories this season. The BAFTA voting was also at the height of Farrow-gate. Yet Blanchett still trump BAFTA darling Judi Dench.


@fans of HER:
A lot of movies with one-word titles have won Best Picture over the years (WINGS, CIMARRON, REBECCA, HAMLET, OLIVER!, PATTON, ROCKY, PLATOON, TITANIC, CHICAGO, CRASH, etc.), including two with only four letters, GIGI and ARGO, but none–I repeat, NONE–with only three letters.
However, one-word titles have never won two years in a row, so since ARGO won last year, GRAVITY will not win this year. Look for SLAVE or HUSTLE to win.


I can't tell what the predictions are. It's just a list of the nominations… Am I missing something? How do we see what the predictions are?


"I don't think any other actress could have pulled off Bullock's precise athletic dramatic feat."
Is Thompson serious? what a laugh.

"(who has artfully dodged the now fading Woody Allen controversy)"
Is that necessary, especially given that, like you said, is HAS faded?
Keep it classy woman.

Thompson's Gravity bias is stanking all over.

J. McLain

Sandra Bullock should have won HANDS DOWN! What she endured & suffered through in the making of Gravity doesn't even come close to the other women. I'm NOT happy!


What happened to the predictions article? I thought it was well done!
(Only three wrong and still very close on the others based on the ranking…)

Mallory H.

The Oscars were pretty exciting this year. Still got that Oscar fever? Check out more fun Oscars stuff here.


wtf? Maya Rudolph has a tiny role in Inherent Vice


The lack of confidence here in The Imitation Game, Selma, and Wild is confounding.

Anne Thompson

Wild runs the risk of being an outdoor movie reliant on one performance. That's why this could earn a Reese Witherspoon Best Actress nod. Remember the Sean Penn film Into the Wild? The Academy tends to reward scale and scope, period sets and swooping crane shots–and great acting.

I'm excited about Selma–it could be a soft lob for the Academy– but Ava DuVernay is not proven at this budget level, I need to see the movie.

The Imitation Game also needs to be seen–is it a genre thriller (like Morten Tyldum's Headhunters–this is his first English language film) or does it elevate? I love Cumberbatch–but even he couldn't save The Fifth Estate, which at this time last year looked like a potential contender–until it crashed at TIFF.

Jen Downy

I think Arquette has an even better chance in supporting – I think it is a supporting role (some actresses have gotten in lead with less, but she could probably win in supporting).


Rosamund Pike's character in Gone Girl is a leading role. It's equal in size to Affleck's.

Anne Thompson

The Lego Movie is eligible for animation. And I'll need to see what the "Gone Girl" handlers decide to do with Pike. And IFC has yet to decide which way they are going to go with Arquette. I think it makes her role more significant and important to campaign for Best Actress.


I've only seen two films on the entire 2014 list: GODZILLA and LUCY, both one-word titles. (Lots of other one-word titles on the list.) Unfortunately, LUCY doesn't have a chance of getting nominated in the categories I would have picked: Best Picture and Best Actress. Oh, well…time to sit back and wait for EXPENDABLES 3 to open. Some sixth sense tells me not to expect it to get nominated for anything.

Annie Oakdale

Lots of great choices here, Anne, but how is Ethan Hawke not a Best Actor contender instead of Supporting Actor? I thought he carried the movie, good as Patricia Arquette was.

Anne Thompson

Hawke, with far less screen time, though choice, is definitely supporting–IFC is considering making Arquette supporting too.


Anne — IDA's not a contender for Best Foreign Film? Poland just submitted it last week. Currently $3.6m in N. American box office…

Anne Thompson

Ida is a contender.


Some Quibbles:
Jessica Chastain not being on the list for Eleanor Rigby. Surely she is at least in contention.
Meryl Streep being listed as lead for Into the Woods. Based on the play, her character is supporting, not lead.
Shailene Woodley and Angelina Jolie on the Frontrunner list for best actress. Neither of their respective films fall into the Academy's wheelhouse.
The odd lack of confidence in Inherent Vice. Early word is that it is more accessible than The Master.
The complete forgetting of Suite Francaise. Surely a World War II drama backed by Weinstein is at least a contender.
Lucy being listed as a frontrunner for Visual Effects. I doubt it would get in over VFX driven fare such as The Hobbit, Transformers, and Godzilla.
And the overconfidence in The Grand Budapest Hotel. Quirky films released in March tend not to be frontrunners for Best Picture.


Better update your predictions. American Sniper is coming out THIS year with a limited release on the 25th.


I always thought Steve Carrell had it in the bag – UNTIL I heard the news about American sniper. Now I'm convinced Bradley Cooper can win his first Oscar. Better update your predictions. It's bradley cooper's year


TOM HARDY mejor actor Locke !!!


Serena (with the Academy sweetheart Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper) will be opening in London on October 24. I think in some categories this film will be nominated (for Film, to actress, screenplay and some technical categories)


I think you have an error. You have Nick Horney (it should be Hornby) listed in the Original Screenplay category for Wild, which is an adaptation.


Keira Knightley's getting strong reviews for Imitation Game. I'd put her in.
Also, is Carell going Lead or Supporting? Either way I think he's in.


No Keira Knightley for TIG? You yourself said she's excellent in it, and if the movie ends up getting all those noms, shouldn't she at least be a contender?


No Marion Cotillard for Two Days One Night? Jesus, by this time last year we had both Cate Blanchett and Adele Exarchopoulos tour-de-forces. Until now, the only performance with that level of critics love is Marion Cotillard as Sandra and everybody still ignoring this?

I doubt any actress will give yet this year a better performance than hers, no problem if she don't win anything, but at least as nominee she must be a lock.

Nicole Kaufmann

Best Documentary: What about THE GREEN PRINCE in this category? One of the best docs of the year.


… Dern and Bailey over Knightley and Stone (especially Knightley) = no.

Sam Anthony

…..Under The Skin surely deserves a nomination for cinematography and soundtrack, I’d love to see Scarlett get a non for Actress too.


This list is sh*t


Channing Tatum is the lead of Foxcatcher. Please don’t encourage category fraud by predicting him in supporting, Anne. That’s really disingenuous


Nightcrawler has amazing screenplay by Dan Gilroy and excellent performance by Jake G, technical credits excellent and gritty,cinematography,make up etc

nagehan r

Composer of The Imitation Game is Alexander Desplat not Clint Mansell.


don’t believe for a second that Reese Witherspoon actually made that trek in Wild


how about Nightcrawler original screenplay,lead actor,supporting actresscin,cinematography and make up


‘Into the Woods’ is my pick

Tom L.

It’s nice to see my favorite "guy movie" The Rover getting the recognition he really deserves. He was a game -changer for that movie. He was not even recognizable . What an accomplishment , too bad the Oscars don’t recognize true talent more often in these small indies.


Robert Pattinson , in the role of Rey in The Rover was the best performance of the year so far ! I do not know how you can say actors in movies not even seen yet are going to win? It seems all rigged . Big budget studios put out the movies they want to win right around Christmas to qualify, and small independent film that were out in the summer or early autumn get overlooked. Let’s look at some fresh blood no matter when the film comes out.


What’s the deal with a new article and comments from several years ago? It’s very confusing. That said, this is a realistic look at the awards. Love to see Pattinson included, his performance in The Rover was exceptionally good, it’s too bad the distribution was so poorly handled. Still, a wonderful film and I wish Michod got more credit for the screenplay and direction. The female cinematographer was impressive and so was the soundtrack.

Nancy D

I wonder why you have Shailene Woodley as more probable of a Best Actress nomination that Julianne Moore.

Mr. Korngorn

BIG EYES is an original screenplay not an adapted screenplay.

will hc


will hc



I feel like Ava D. or Jolie (if it does what it’s expected to do), one of them will take Fincher’s spot. Feels like Gone Girl’s dying out slowly as Foxcatcher, Selma, American Sniper, and Unbroken comes in.

LondonJames Zurich

I’m soo proud, that "The Circle" got nominated for an Oscar. It’s such a beautiful Lovestory of an old Gay Couple during the 50ties in Zurich. The best part of this documentary is that Ernst and Robi are still alive, still a couple, and were willing to be part of the movie. So, the re-creations we see, aren’t just hypothetical. They are informed by the participation of people who were there. In my mind, this was the best film which i ever seen. I’m proud of them, the cast, the movie. Best of Luck for them !!!

Dom kruz

Don’t forget Robert Elswit and his cinematography for Nightcrawler

Robert Galster

I know visuals isn’t a main category, but it is a bit stupid to put the amazing spider man 2 in front runners, when the visuals were kinda crap and cartoonish and Godzilla, which clearly had some of the best visuals of the year, in the contenders? and captain america was a great film but the visuals didn’t stand out and You have that as a frontrunner and The hobbit as a contender? Please a lot of thought did not go into your predictions for some of the other awards. A fall out boy song as a frontrunner and the last goodbye a contender? that is one of the most memorable songs to have come out this year for a film. Also in best original score you left out another of Alexandre’s finest work, would be a long shot but still very memorable. his Godzilla score was amazing at what it did. Besides this i liked alot of your list and agree with alot.


Jessica Chastain is a Must on Best Supporting Actress

James Goyette

I’ve just been hearing a lot about Anne Dorval’s amazing lead performance in the film "Mommy". I don’t know how she was overlooked.


Why are all these comments from June-July 2010?

Sash Animenkos

Hey, what about Kristen Stewart? This year she featured in three films (Clouds of Sils Maria, Camp X-Ray, Still Alice) and in all of them her performance was critically acclaimed. She must be included in any kinds of lists for, at least, one of those movies.

Stephen Holt

I’m really surprised that you have neglected to mention Marion Cotillard for "Two Days, One Night" and she’s won the New York Film Critics Best Actress Award and just did it again today from the Boston Film Critics.


Seriously? No Belle for, costume design or production design if not even nominated for major acting awards? Sam Reid and Tom Wilkinson were great in the movie!

Richard Purcell

Sigh- as usual the Academy seems likely to miss the very best- namely, "Calvary" The contenders listed above are all splendid movies in their own particular ways but none can match this movie for it ‘s impact and pitch perfect acting.Unlike the current contenders "Calvary" – which unfortunately has been more or less ignored by Fox in campaign terms this is a film which from it’s devastating first line will leave most viewers emotionally drained for days, especially if they are Catholics. For me this is the best film of the year whatever the award voters decide.


Richard Purcell, this list and this website are NOT the Academy. REPEAT: NOT.


Into the Woods was amazing in every way. Meryl is a tour de force and the acting, filming and costumes all brilliant. The critics have been unusually harsh with this this film due to their own biases. Just let the film unfold before you and let it take you on a wonderful journey. Into the Woods is a triumph and Meryl is deliciously evil, alongside a wonderful cast and visuals galore. Congratulations to Mr. Marshall for doing the impossible. Oscar please for Meryl!

jon lovic

Elizabeth Moss in "Listen Up Philip" is absolutely amazing. She deserves an Oscar Nomination for Supporting actress fr sure! I’m really surprised I don’t see her name among possible contenders!


Thank you for finally stopping the Oscar discussion around "Fury." Let Ayer make a really solid film first, then start create Oscar buzz for him.

Ed Tierney

Whiplash is now considered an adapted screenplay not original as reported above

Alex Dupont

How can you include in any category UNBROKEN? This is Jolie’s greatest failure, she shouldn’t have directed such a great story. Pity, for Louis Zamperini deserved a REAL director to build a REAL MASTERPIECE! Sorry, Unbroken "directed" by silly Jolie is simply boooooring!

Archibald Logan

I don’t think Michael Keaton should or will win best actor. He’s performance was dull, predictable and boring. Redmayne’s and Cumberbatch’s performance were simply awesome, their physical language, the character’s details and emotions were all present on the screen, their characters were understood as if they were themselves. In the end, I think both should win but I doubt there will be another almost impossible tie, so Eddie will hold that award in his hands.
In adapted screenplay, I think The Theory of Everything should win… The Imitation Game wasn’t that accurate. There were many made-up scenes that didn’t actually happen at all. Turing’s personality wasn’t accurate either, he was described as a closed brilliant minded but loving funny man, not an Asperger Syndrome patient who didn’t like people or anything to do with them.
Also I don’t know why is Foxcatcher even nominated for a single Oscar. The movie was so poorly done I could film it in my house with some photoshop, a green screen and halloween make-up. Steve Carrell is an AMAZING actor but he doesn’t even deserve that nomination. Same thing for Mark. And the movie didn’t have music at all, I felt like I was rotting into nothing while watching it.


Whoa, Archibald Logan, listen. Keaton was predictable, dull and boring? I think playing a British war hero or a British mathematic genius who everybody knows and who’s somehow easy to imitate by an actor is dull, boring and predictable. But what do you think: is it any easier to create a character out of NOTHING but the script and your own vision? In this instance a washed-up comic book hero actor who tries to make a comeback on Broadway, and who constantly hears voices inside his head (also done by Keaton), AND who has (imaginary) magic powers? Oh, yeah, the actor also has to keep on acting for, say, FIFTEEN FRICKIN’ MINUTES (or more) CONGRUENTLY, WITHOUT A FRICKIN’ BREAK! Well, some people just like themselves some good Oscar recipe performances. Oh, and the AMPAS loves good ol’ comebacks. Redmayne will get his chance later. This is Keaton’s year.

Lawrence Griffin Platt

Boyhood will win dispute Sag award for Birdman.


Why is Interstellar not in your picks in any category? It’s visual effects were certainly better than DOTPOTA… Even in sound department, it was excellent!!!

Jackson Verga

I think that American Sniper should win best picture because it was a very interesting film. I enjoyed seeing it because it was very emotional, and had an interesting story. I think Bradley Cooper did a great job playing Chris Kyle.

Jesse Albright

I doubt people actual listen to the "Best Song" category. Selma was a perfectly good song until some HACK who can’t sing made it completely simple minded, rhyming "Bus" with "Us" and "Us" with…"Us". Give it to Glen Campbell already! If you want "empowering lyrics" then "Grateful" should take it. A song should be a SONG not a DJ studio overproduced mix.

Michael Jones

Boyhood will lose to "The Imitation Game" for Best Picture. Boyhood is not a Motion Picture it is an after school special filmed over 12 years as a desperate gimmick by a "C" grade director. The Academy represents experienced sophisticated artists who will pick the Best Picture to represent us to the World. Boyhood isn’t even close to Best Picture. Can you really put Boyhood in the same category as "Schindler’s List"? Seriously?

Kate H

They put ‘Forrest Gump’ and ‘A Beautiful Mind’ in the same category as ‘Schindler’s List’ (which, incidentally, robbed ‘Short Cuts’ of its rightful win). So why not?


(I love how all the comments are from five years ago.)

"THE SEARCHERS wuz robbed, I tell you, ROBBED!"


Could the managers of this site please put the latest comments on top? It’s ridiculous to read predictions about the Oscars in 2014 and then see a comment from June 2010 right below it.

Magda Gawrysz

There are so many good movies in this season ,why Boyhood looks like will win?

Anthony Caban

I disagree with your list. Sniper deserves Best Picture & Actor. Interstellar deserves something too. No respect for american sniper.

Jamie mccarthy

Tom Hardy should have been nominated for Locke. But, he joins Johnny Depp and a list of other distinguished talents that never win but are actually always great.


so every movie coming out next year basically


What about Knight of Cups?


Please get rid of the old comments.
Having said that, the one film in this list that I’m psyched for is CAROL. A Highsmith adaptation starring Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara and I am sooooo there!


best leading actor 2016:
Jake Gyllenhaal in ‘Southpaw
Tom Courtenay 45 years(THE WINNER)
Warren Beatty Howard Hughes movie
Silence Liam Neeson
Ralph Fiennes A Bigger Splash


My current predictions (which are probably invalid since we have almost a year to go)

Best Picture (the Academy might be going back to five, but just in case):
The Danish Girl
The Revenant
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
Sea of Trees
Steve Jobs

Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (the Revenant), Eddie Redmayne (the Danish Girl), Matthew McConaughey (Sea of Trees), Jason Segel (End of the Tour), and Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett (Carol), Meryl Streep (Rikki and the Flash), Jennifer Lawrence (Joy), Marion Cotillard (Macbeth)

Best Supp. Actor: Bradley Cooper (Joy), Tom Hardy (the Revenant), Robert De Niro (Joy), Seth Rogen (Steve Jobs) Ken Wantanabe (Sea of Trees)

Best Supp. Actress: Jennifer Jason Leigh (the Hateful Eight), Rooney Mara (Carol), Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria), Jessica Chastain (the Martian), and Meryl Streep (Suffragette)


Why are the comments from five years ago?! Our Brand Is Crisis is having test screenings so should be ready for this Oscar season.


The Tomorrowland picture should be removed, as that is not going to be in contention for many Oscars this year.


The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo should have more nominations. It’s by far the best movie of the year and perhaps the best movie from a novel of the last decade.


Sorry, but Binoche and Stewart don’t belong on this list. Sils Maria was a worldwide flop, it didn’t make back its production budget, which means they’re not going to pay for an Oscar campaign. By December there will be at least 10 better options for the lead and supporting actress roles. The film made no impact, they’re going nowhere. Silly and unrealistic to even include them.


@Gina: we know it’s you Truthy or newly queen of crazy Realprpro. Please go read the stats, Clouds has more than made 6 times its budget which was small to start with. A little research goes a long way but then, you are not here to tell the truth are you? Rather to put a negative spin on any writeup featuring Kristen Stewart ( who owns your ass by the way).
My opinion, good for all people listed above but still a little early to start naming contenders ( not to jinx anyone) Rather enjoy the movies now & can predict when we have actually seen all the movies listed above.


No, the CoSM budget was over $6 million, and it hasn’t made that back. The film is a box office flop. It would need to make a minimum of $12 to begin to show a profit. CoSM will never get an Oscar campaign, it’s time has come and gone. By January, it will be forgotten.


Deakins for sicario. Can bleeker Street take a movie anywhere?


@hope, know you are the same person as Gina also known as either realprpro or truthy1. It will of course be gone from memory which is why it is still getting amazing new reviews, still participating in current and upcoming film festivals. Suck it up. It’s happening.

Mark Post

Leaving out Star Wars: The Force Awakens in the technical categories while listing the good but incredibly overrated Mad Max: Fury Road in nearly every category proves that you don’t know what you’re talking about.


Do you know something about ‘Spotlight’ that makes you count it out all together?


Betting on The Wolfpack for best documentary. Would love to see The Embrace of the Serpent in the foreign film category, it is an amazing piece of work.


The 3 Pattinson stans all in a row – same person. Try to be less transparent.


Güeros is not even elegible, surely not a frontrunner for best foreign. Last year was defeated by Cantinflas in the Mexican selection.


Your predictions are cute, lol


If I were an Academy member, I’d vote for LISTEN TO ME MARLON for Best Docu Feature and WHEN MARNIE WAS THERE for both Best Animated Feature and Best Foreign Film


I absolutely adored Elizabeth Banks’ performance in LOVE & MERCY. Glad to see she’s getting buzz for awards season.

Lenny G

I’m surprised you think Johnny Depp doesn’t have a chance for Black Mass. From what I’ve read, the consensus seems to be Depp is a standout but the film is just okay.


These comments are all from 2010. How did those PLEASE GIVE predictions work out for you, Fred?

Remember when stories had editors. Tarantino’s new film is not called "THE HARD EIGHT," though I suppose its porn parody might be.

Pitty Anne

Damn, this list is just horrible bad


Yeah, don’t even mention Anomalisa…

Mark Johnson

It’ll be a real shame if they push Idris for Lead. That film is clearly Attah’s from start to finish. Idris could win if pushed Supporting, I think.


How is Star Wars not in there for ANYTHING, let alone visual effects?


I would think it the frontrunner for both sound awards, original score, visual effects and production design, and I’m betting on nominations for makeup & costumes too.

Michael Taylor

Why is CAROL not listed as a contender for Production Design? I see it on many other lists, have seen the production design noted in many reviews, and designer Judy Becker has been previously nominated for AMERICAN HUSTLE (it’s also her second film with Todd Haynes, after I’M NOT THERE.)


"And at year’s end, for Quentin Tarantino’s snow-bound western "The Hard Eight," starring Kurt Russell and Jennifer Jason Leigh."

actually itc called "The Hateful Eight" not "The Hard Eight"

Arslan Baig

The Academy Award for Best Actor MUST go to Michael Fassbender! Directing and Best Picture award must go to Danny Boyle and Steve Jobs respectively!

Justin Z

For Best Documentary Feature, provided it gets the push, I’d put Peace Officer in the running. It has been a huge hit everywhere it has premiered so far and it’s an incredibly timely and poignant documentary.


Anne, I respect your opinion a lot but there is no way that Wolf Totem can be viewed as a formidable front runner for Best Foreign Language. No one is going to pick the film that murders baby wolf cubs. Only if people were partial to James Horner or Seven Years in Tibet would this film get a nomination


Stewart over Vikander or Jason leigh? Good luck with that one.


She erased Marion Cotillard’s name in best actress and let the blank there, besides not even saying a single word about the film. Even if you consider it a long shot, it is a shot, and the reviews are there. This was wrong, really wrong. But the predictions at all have lots of doubtable things, like the Stewart stuff Ashley just said.


Jeez! this same link has been recycled from a 2010 post? LOL


It’s a shame Anne doesn’t consider Marion Cotillard as Best Supporting Actress for Macbeth when her performance is absolutely magnificent and wonderful and with more chances to get the nomination that most of the contenders she put in.


Robert Pattinson in The Childhood of a Leader. A fantastic departure for him and a very impressive performance.

Sandra Faulkner

I just saw Ethan Hawke’s Born to Be Blue Film at The Toronto International Fil Festival. This is a must see, one of Hawke’s best performances ever of the late Jazz Trumpeter Chet Baker, it Co Stars Carmen Ejogo (Selma) I truly believe this film could sneak through and get a nomination, best screen play, or Best Aactor Ethan Hawke….it is a very well written script, hope you can all see it


Pattinson deserved an Oscar nomination for The Rover, it’s a sin that film’s distribution was mishandled. The Childhood of a Leader doesn’t have a release date yet, so I doubt it will be eligible this year, but he’s also done wonderful work in Life, with several critics saying he outshines Dehaan as James Dean. The path he’s chosen in independent films will land him an Oscar nod at some point, he just keeps getting better and better, and the way he chooses quality projects shows a smart actor as well as a good one.


I so, SO hope the Academy recognizes Mad Max: Fury Road like this.


"Aferim!" is the best foreign picture I’ve seen this year. It’s the Romanian entry and won ‘Best Director’ at Berlin Film Festival this year. It’s that rare movie that’s highly intelligent, very funny and socially important.
It’s the first movie ever about gypsy slavery in Eastern Europe. Imagine "12 years a slave" with the blackest humor you can imagine…Best film I’ve seen all year.

Melanie Reeves

See "The Testimony–the BEST short doc


Am I crazy for not understanding how both D.P. Luca Bigazzi, and director, Paolo Sorrentino, are not in the conversation. Darn, just when I think I am brilliant!


How is The Revenant not considered a frontrunner for cinematography?


No Star Wars nominations at all?


As long as you keep listing Kristen Stewart as a Frontrunner, you have no credibility. Jane Fonda just won the Hollywood Award for her performance in Youth last night, which should move her from Contender to Frontrunner. You can make fun of the Hollywood Awards all you want, but they were a pretty good predictor of the winners last year. Stewart is not well-liked by the Academy, she will be ignored again this year just as she always has been. That Cesar isn’t cutting any ice with them, they know the score.


@Skeptical – if you actually read the whole post you would see that Anne Thompson clearly states that she will not list any film(including its cast) as a frontrunner if she had not seen the film. Also how do you know the academy does not like Kristen? Did they personally tell you that?

Michael O'Conner

Why no love for SICARIO? (besides best cinematography, which is deserved) Best picture, director, actress, supporting actor? I don’t mean to start an internet war, I’m just curious why it’s not even a part of the conversation.


How can you overlook Bryan Cranston for TRUMBO? Especially given how voters love movies about Hollywood.


Best foreign language film of the year: THE SECOND MOTHER.


How could Kristen stewart be on any list for best actress when she plays herself in every role?


Force Awakens will be all over the board on the tech end.


Are you freaking kidding me? How is The Revenant a contender for cinematography and NOT a frontrunner?!

Anne Thompson

Nothing is a frontrunner until I see it—The Revenant is Monday.


Star Wars?

Rachel M

Emma Donoghue’s novel "Room" was amazing, and has lots of potential to be filmed well. Ex Machina, The Revenant. I loved Mad Max and Crimson Peak but not sure how they will fare at the oscars.The Martian is bound to do well, and Joy probably as anything Jennifer Lawrence does gets lots of awards. I’m hoping Spotlight and Trumbo will be good. Execellent documentaries to choose from, with The Wolfpack, Going Clear, The Look of Silence (the sequel to The Act of Killing), Micheal Moore’s new effort Where To Invade Next, and the epic conservative-liberal ideological debate in The Best Of Enemies.I really hope A Pidgeon Sat on A Branch Contemplating Existence, and The Brand New Testament get some recognition in foreign films section. Suffragette could be very bland but hopeful that it is at least as good as Iron Jawed Angels.


Star Wars will definitely be a contender for the technical awards.

Anshuman Kumar

Are you kidding me? Johnny Depp is definitely one of the strongest contenders this… He definitely deserves the Oscar this time.


No Becoming Bulletproof?


Best documentary feature: Something Better to Come by Hanna Polak. Truly extraordinary and rare film. Wish it was getting more attention.

Arshad Khan

It would be ridiculous to ignore TRUMBO which I think is the best Hollywood film of the year by far. Great writing, direction, performances and absolutely relevant today in a time of hyper criminalization of the Muslim same as the "commie". Also, I think T(E)rror should be contender for Best Doc along with Among The Believers and Aferim and Body for best foreign language film.


You write that "Creed" could "score Stallone another Oscar." Which implies he has won one already, which he has not.


Mad Max-Fury Road and Legend should take all oscars


I hope Mad Max gets a Best Picture nom. Totally deserving. Star Wars is a shoe-in to be nominated for Best Visual Effects. Let’s not be silly.


Come on guys, lets face it. Of course Star Wars: The Force Awakens will get AT LEAST one nomination for Best Visual Effects. Every Star Wars film has always got at least one nomination. The Academy board will do this in order to pay respect for the legacy Star Wars has left behind.


Its hilarious that all the Kristen Stewart naysayers are all very quiet now. Very hard to argue she is a bad actress and that she should not be considered over other actresses when has won the NYFCC, BSFC, BOFC and placed 2nd at LAFC. Cant argue with those awards now can we?


You refuse to include The Big Short even as a Contender? Are you paying attention at all to its buzz, reviews, awards recognition and box office receipts. Come on, already.

Anne Thompson

I love the film and have it in several categories; it’s a scruffy looking comedy. The Academy tends to go high-brow.

Cameron Johnson

World of Tomorrow losing would be worse than LEGO Movie not even getting nominated. Hertzfeldt is overdue AND the film is a masterpiece.


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Mejor actriz:Blanchett
Mejor Actor: Si se da que gane dos años seguidos lo de Eddie es fenomenal, sino Fassbender
Guion Adaptado: Steve Jobs
Guion Original: El puente de los espias
Mejor Director: Iñarritu o el de Spotlight
Mejor pelicula: Spotlight

Sarah Marshall

What about documentary short?

Ekenyerengozi Michael Chima

Leonardo DiCaprio should go hone with the Oscar for Best Actor.




why not emily blunt for best actress in sicario


Overlooked is Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria. All the critics awards then nothing? Shaking my head with that one.


Kristen did get nominated with many critics awards. But she didn’t get nominated for the important ones like; Satellite Awards, Critic’s Choice, Golden Globe, SAG Awards and BAFTAs.

Josiane Ochman

My head is swimming. For once it’s much harder to handicap who will win even in the major categories. Saw Carol last evening,meticulously recreated,great sensitivity of feeling perhaps too much,left me emotionally distant. Cate Blanchett is a great actress but some of her mannerisms are starting to bleed through from one film to the other. Can’t see how Rooney Mara would be considered in anything other than best actress category, this is not a best supporting role do understand the politics at play.


Tom Hardy should be in the best supporting actor nominations


Frankly, I’m quite outraged that Carol was not nominated for Best Picture. In my opinion it was the best film of the year (see my top 15 list below). If anyone has opinions on my top ten list, I am willing to debate!:

1 (tie). Carol
1 (tie). Mommy
2. The Lobster
3. Son of Saul
4. Love and Mercy
5. Steve Jobs
6. The Hateful Eight
7. Inside Out
8. The Revenant
9. Creed
10. Ex Machina
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
12. Anomalisa
13. Youth
14. Mustang
15. Dope


The more you push this stupid agenda, the less I will ever vote for anything just to spite. (A voter)

Danish Girl

Why isn’t Danish Girl nominated for best pic??? I don’t understand!

Andrew Champagne

Mad Max deserves something for its picture, visual effects or best director. In my opinion the most visually stunning film of the year.

Tyler Massingale

The Revenant is The Best Picture of the year.


"ROOM" will win the best picture and directing. It is the best movie of 2015, out of question.

Mimoza Morina

Best live action short film " Shok" is really the best in his category!

seo fiverr

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