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2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Will dark drama "Moonlight" catch up with light musical "La La Land?" (Updated 2/22/17.)

“Moonlight” Golden Globe 2017 Best Drama

“Moonlight”

A24

The Oscar race is heading toward the finish.

Here’s the Oscar timeline, with our prediction charts below.

READ MORE: 2017 Oscar Predictions

Launching at Sundance was writer-director Kenneth Lonergan’s emotionally devastating drama “Manchester By the Sea,” starring Best Actor frontrunner Casey Affleck and strong Supporting players Michelle Williams and Lucas Hedges. Amazon Studios (with distributor Roadside Attractions) has fared better in the Oscar derby than rival Netflix did last year with “Beasts of No Nation,” landing their first Best Picture contender among six nominations. Their more conventional, theatrically-friendly approach is showing great success.

Casey Affleck, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, MIchelle Williams, Matt Damon and Kenneth Lonergan.

Photo by Todd Williamson/Getty Images for Amazon Studios

Breaking out of the Cannes Film Festival in May was David Mackenzie’s modern western “Hell or High Water,” starring Supporting nominee Jeff Bridges as a Texas marshall chasing bank robber brothers Chris Pine and Ben Foster. 2016’s top indie hit scored four nominations including Original Screenplay for Taylor Sheridan, marking CBS Films’ first Best Picture nod.

Among a more diverse set of contenders than last year, “Loving,” the heart-tugging Jeff Nichols true romance that emerged from Cannes, a well-told true biracial romance, yielded a Best Actress nomination for Irish actress Ruth Negga.

The fall fests proved a crucible for a raft of other critics’ faves.

Hacksaw Ridge

“Hacksaw Ridge”

Summit Entertainment

Venice introduced “Jackie,” Pablo Larrain’s first film in English, starring Natalie Portman as JFK’s grieving widow, which Fox Searchlight scooped up in Toronto for December 9th release. Portman won the Critics’ Choice award along with Globe, SAG and Oscar nominations. Also playing well at Venice was “Braveheart” Oscar-winner Mel Gibson’s tough World War II war movie “Hacksaw Ridge” (Lionsgate, November 4), which reminded critics and audiences of what an effective director he is. Lauded Andrew Garfield landed a Best Actor nomination — as a sensitive but tough Pacifist medic who wants to serve his country by not killing people but by saving their lives — and the film scored Picture, Director and a total of six nominations as well. At least some members of the Academy have forgiven Gibson his trespasses.

Telluride broke out Damien Chazelle’s audacious musical romance “La La Land,” starring singer-dancers Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling, which wound up with 14 Oscar nominations, tying “Titanic” and “All About Eve,” as well as Barry Jenkins’ coming-of-age ensemble drama “Moonlight” (A24), featuring Supporting Actor Oscar frontrunner Mahershala Ali (New York Film Critics, Critics Choice and SAG winner) and Supporting Actress Globe, SAG and Oscar nominee Naomie Harris. The movie racked up eight nominations including Best Director, Writer, and Editor, and could prove a credible threat to “La La Land.”

See more Oscar Nominations Analysis: ‘La La Land” Will Win Best Picture, Unless Voters Let  ‘Moonlight” Shine 

TFF introduced Denis Villeneuve’s brainy sci-fi thriller “Arrival” (Paramount), starring Telluride tributee and Best Actress contender Amy Adams, who was competing in the most competitive Best Actress race in decades; finally, while the movie scored eight nominations including Picture, Director,  and Screenplay, the five-time nominee didn’t make the cut. Adams is always so good — and carried the movie — that she’s starting to get taken for granted like “Sully” star Tom Hanks, who hasn’t been nominated for Best Actor since “Castaway” in 2001.

La La Land

“La La Land”

COURTESY OF SUMMIT ENTERTAINMENT

Also playing well in Toronto was Weinstein Co’s Oscar horse for this year, Garth Davis’s tearjerker “Lion,” starring BAFTA-winner Dev Patel and Nicole Kidman in a true story about a man who lost his family when he was five years old and uses Google Earth to find them again. Both scored Critics Choice, Globe, SAG nominations while the film landed, finally, six Oscar nominations, including Picture and Supporting players Kidman and Patel, but not DGA nominee Garth Davis. And writer Luke Davies won the Adapted Screenplay award at the BAFTAs.

The New York Film Festival opened with Ava DuVernay’s well-reviewed, powerful documentary “13th,” and debuted Mike Mills’ affectionate 1979 Santa Barbara family drama, “20th Century Women,” starring Annette Bening in a rich leading role as a single mom raising her teen son. Bening grabbed Critics Choice and Globe nominations, but no SAG, BAFTA or Oscar slots. Mills landed the film’s only Oscar nomination, for Original Screenplay.

Riding an end-of-the-year box office surge was Ted Melfi’s real-life female empowerment drama “Hidden Figures” (Fox 2000), starring Taraji P. Henson, Jonelle Monae and Globe, SAG and Oscar nominee Octavia Spencer as three African-American NASA math whizzes who helped to send astronaut John Glenn into orbit. The movie won the SAG Ensemble award which can sometimes presage an Oscar Best Picture win, but it was not competing against “La La Land.”

"Fences"

“Fences”

Denzel Washington and August Wilson’s screen adaptation of Tony-winning Broadway hit “Fences” (Paramount, December 25) features towering performances from Washington and Viola Davis (who opted to campaign for Supporting Actress), with support from a strong ensemble, many from the 2010 revival. It nabbed a coveted SAG ensemble nomination as well as Washington and Davis, who won the Golden Globe and landed a BAFTA nod. Both scored inevitable Oscar nominations, among four including Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay.

Best Picture (in order of likelihood to win):

1. “La La Land” (Lionsgate)
2. “Moonlight” (A24)
3. “Manchester by the Sea” (Amazon, Roadside Attractions)
4. “Arrival” (Paramount)
5.”Hidden Figures” (Fox)
6.“Fences” (Paramount)
7. “Lion” (Weinstein Co.)
8. “Hell or High Water” (CBS Films)
9. “Hacksaw Ridge” (Lionsgate)

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Check Out More Oscar Races:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor
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Best Animated Feature

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Comments

BILL

the greasy strangler for best picture!

mark

Honestly – I only see Manchester By The Sea, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Birth of a Nation and Loving as obvious Best Picture nominees. That’s only four films! Yikes. This year’s slate for legit oscarbait is pretty sparse. They opened up the category up to 10 nominations to get as many films/stars/max exposure for the Oscars…but they are gonna look pretty stupid because there literally won’t be enough quality films to fill all those slots they’ve made.

I sense a paradigm shift soon, but I have no idea what it will be. Curious to see what the fate of Screening Room is…

This is what you get when you pour all your money into tentpoles.

    Katie Vance

    So you’ve literally seen every single movie on this list even the ones that haven’t been released yet?

Evan

“Zootopia” could be a strong contender for a nomination!

    GD

    Zootopia won’t be nominated for Best Picture. The reason being is that there is an Animated Feature Oscar that carries the same weight as Best Picture does for these films. Because of that you likely won’t see it in the other category. While the Academy has nominated up to 11 films for Best Picture recently it can also nominate only 5. It will be interesting to see what we get in the end.

      Woody

      Toy Story 3 was nominated.

        GD

        That was years ago prior to the Animated Picture category becoming the norm. It will not get a Best Picture Oscar nomination.

          Rigwam

          How does a category become a “norm”? Best animated feature has been a category since 2001… Toy Story 3 was nominated for both Best Picture and Best Animated Feature in 2010, and won best animated feature. Same story with “Up”… Zootopia has almost the exact same RT score as Toy Story 3 and made almost as much money (over 1 billion) – and it happens to tackle the race problem going on in our country (and the rest of the world) perfectly (hence making more money than almost any film this year). It would be a shame for it to be overlooked.

          Reece

          Rotten Tomatoes doesn’t mean squat. Zootopia has a 78 on metacritic.com, Toy Story 3 had a 92.

          Rotten Tomatoes scores are a percentage of good reviews to bad reviews. There could be 100 reviews for a movie, and all of them could give the movie a C, it still as a 100%.

          Metacritic creates a score on a scale of 0-100 based on a weighted average of multiple reviews from major critics. It’s much more efficient and there really isn’t any loophole with Metacritic. I suggest using metacritic as a source for movie ratings..

          Eight Marty

          Meta Critic also gave CARS a 73, GLADIATOR a 64, and Brave a 69… Also, please cite your source for “There could be 100 reviews for a movie [on RT], and all of them could give the movie a C, it still as a 100%.” Curious where you’re getting your information. Also you ignored the rest of his comment (over a billion in revenue and very timely/relevant subject matter). The entire point behind the comment (I think) is that it should be considered on this list… JUNGLE BOOK (77 on meta critic) is there, BIRTH OF A NATION is there (68 on meta critic)… and some of the other movies like PATRIOT’S DAY haven’t even been released yet (not that CBS Films isn’t a sure fire bet…)

          Mike

          ” Also, please cite your source for “There could be 100 reviews for a movie [on RT], and all of them could give the movie a C, it still as a 100%.” Curious where you’re getting your information. ”

          It was explained. RT is a measure of what percentage of critics gave a positive review. It is a not a measure of HOW MUCH each critic liked it. Though they do also show the Average Rating now.

          Lennon

          I honestly wish people would stop using Metacritic as a way try and make a movie seem less quality! No one cares about that site! No one! Everyone from the media to critics and awards voters use RT as a standard of quality! Futhemore please take a look at Metacritic and tell me just how many of the top 10 films you’ve actually seen this year! Far as I can tell everyone of them are arthouse indy films that the site loves to promote! Another reason why the site can’t be trusted is that it picks and chooses who it wants to be a critic on the site then choses the grade it gives by reading the review! Yet they will not say how they come up with the grade!

          I realize some just can’t stand the idea that Zootopia is in fact a beloved, outstanding quality, a deserving film that very likely will win many awards! You people seriously need to get out more!

          Darjeeling Unlimited

          Realistically, it doesn’t look like Zootopia is going to land a nomination, but neither history, nor the rules, nor any movie review websites explain the snub. Bottom line, Up and Toy Story 3 received (deserving) best picture noms, and Zootopia is more relevant, made just as much money and has just as much critical acclaim as the two of them. It is missing from this category, plain and simple.

      Ali

      Toy Story 3 actually deserved the oscar for best picture. Last year, Inside Out my favorite film of the year wasnt nominated in the category, nor was Anomalisa. Zootopia, is nowhere near those films, atleast not to me.

Iván el Conquistador

You forget something that happens each and every year. Some of these predictions will turn out wrong because some of these movies will be either panned by critics or box office flops, and these two results can doom the campaign of a film. But it leaves us with the appearance of new contenders who no one see coming. I mean, Mad Max: Fury Road didn’t appear in these early predictions and in the end, it was one of the front-runners. I predict Zootopia to be the breakthrough because of social commentary, racism alegory and zeitgeist.

    Evan

    My thoughts exactly!

JJN

There are lots of “smaller” pictures here, but typically the nominations go to pictures with wider releases and decent box office. Last year 5 of 8 made over $70m domestic. So better chances for “Billy Lynn”, “Allied”, “Sully”, “Birth of a Nation”, and “Light Between Oceans”, as well as “Founder” and “Snowden”, all of which have wider appeal. And don’t count out blockbusters! “Passengers” and “Zootopia” could both be nominees.

    Avenger07

    How does birth and Snowden have “wide appeal”?, those 2 movies chances of doing well at the box office is minimal, and their awards chances well, at least for birth everything is down hill has been for a while I don’t see it making a comeback.

      JJN

      Take a look at the date of the original comment — that was made back in July when it looked like both had decent box office prospects. Light Between Oceans had bad reviews and has been forgotten. Snowden had better reviews but wasn’t that big of a hit either. So it’s also unlikely to be a contender. And it looks like “Birth of a Nation” won’t be around at awards time either. I had no way of knowing about the scandal then of course.

      My point about box office performance being important still stands — look how “Sully” has made its way into the conversation!

Leonardo

The Zookerper’s Wife will be premiered on MArch 2017, so is out of this year, but Live by Night just got a release date for January 2017…

Tim

What’s up with all the romance movies? I mean I like a good romance film, but this seems like overkill this year.

Jeffrey

What about Collateral Beauty? Nocturnal Animals? American Pastoral? Seems to me this list is really half-baked. And I feel pretty confident you can rule out Free State of Jones. It’s a critical and box office failure.

Cullen

Why not any nominations for Hacksaw Ridge?

Hunter

Zootopia and jungle book should both be considered

Liam

“Hacksaw Ridge” & “American Pastoral” both definitely need to be on this list.

Jeffrey

This list needs to be updated. Story of You Life now has a different title and The Zookeeper’s Wife will be released in 2017.

Jeffrey

I saw Cafe Society over the weekend. It’s a genuinely mediocre film and won’t be nominated for anything.

Omar

I honestly think when all is said and done….Zootopia will be nominated for best picture at the Oscars. Despite bring released one week after the last Oscars, this animated movie has resonated with everyone. Dealing with issues happening today, a smart buddy cop movie, and it’s the best reviewed film of 2016. It’s animated yes but it’s the best film of 2016, mainly because of its message. I hope the academy can see through that despite being an animated film.

    Justin

    Nah brah, Zootopia while liked by critics won’t be an end of the year favorite. Look at the Lego Movie which critics loved I’d say even more than Zootopia. Wasn’t heavily considered for best picture.

      Frey

      It didnt even was nominated for Best Animated Feature! Instead, we got The Boxtrolls!

      Lisa Sarazes

      Zootopia and Lego Movie are not comparable films. The only two things they share in common: they are animated and everyone loves them.

      If you want to compare Zootopia to a recent snub (since it is looking like Zootopia will be one based on this list and others), look at the Dark Knight. Incredible film, well received, hugely successful, relevant themes (thin line between anarchy and order, the triumph of good over evil just to name a couple) but no nomination. Who knows why? Because it was a Batman movie? Zootopia: well received, relevant themes, (fighting prejudice, racism and hate, “Did anyone not let you into a group because they held a stereotype about you— thought that you were something you weren’t? Yes, well that’s prejudice.”) hugely successful, teaching our youth about big problems and how we can change them… but I guess maybe it’s just a kids movie about bunnies?

        Omar

        The Dark Knight…to this day…is the most important movie in the history of the Academy Awards. That film is the reason why we have more than 5 movies nominated for best picture. It’s the biggest snub of all time. And it proved one thing…..the Oscars became irrelevant in 2009, when they nominated garbage like The Reader for best picture. The Dark knight was top 5 best movie of that decade.

          What about me

          I agree and think this actually just helps prove the previous point about Zootopia. But both Toy Story 3 and Up were nominated after The Dark Night travesty (agree, biggest snub of all time)… And after the Academy increased the best picture category to up to ten films. I would like to hear an explanation from an indiewire “expert” as to why Zootopia is not on this list. Not even in the longshot category.

Brandon Thompson

How about love & Friendship?

Peter Coy

What do people think of Hacksaw Ridge? Mel Gibson directing a war based true story about an American hero, opening in November…

Jack Sauder

Zootopia is currently the best-reviewed film of the year. Why is nobody considering it for the nomination? Is it JUST because it’s an animated film? Because that’s racist.

    Reece Daniels

    Metacritic is the place to go for legitimate movie scores, and Zootopia is not the best reviewed. The Lobster has been first half of the year’s king so far. It’s gonna be a wild 2nd half

      Anthony

      Anyone who thinks Metacritic is the most important site to consider when it comes to judging a film probably shouldn’t have their opinion be considered, with all due respect.

    Justin

    Animated movies have to be exceptional and as the other reviewer pointed out Zootopia has a 78 on Metacritic. Animated movies only have a shot when they get high 80s or above. Zootopia was charming but they won’t vote for it as best picture, not quite the level of heartbreak and wonder from other animated films that have been nominated.

Bob Jones

I haven’t seen it but The Birth of a Nation has horrible reviews.

    Justin

    Idiot, no

    Avenger07

    Not horrible…..yet, but once the stampede of reviews begin to flow Birth’s reality will come to light, which has less to do with the rape scandal and more with the fact that it’s just an OK movie.

Declan More

Zootopia is widely held to be the best film of the year. Should be listed among the contenders.

    Omar

    I really hope it does. Zootopia talked about our issues in our country. It’s so well deserving for a best picture nomination. It’s the highest reviewer movie of 2016.

MALIK

OH I CAN ALREADY SEE THEM COMING FOR BIRTH OF A NATION LIKE A BUNCH OF HOUNDS … ANY SHRED OF DIRT THEY CAN FIND ON THIS MOVIE THEY’LL FIND IT … ITS A SHAME CUZ ITS A GREAT MOVIE THOUGH

    Avenger07

    Yeah except it is NOT, Birth is like a TV movie but not much else.

Lester

“Hell or High Water” now that it is released warrants at a minimum some mention in the contender to long shot categories. Extraordinary screenplay, tight direction and nominating worthy performances by Jeff Bridges and Ben Foster. Even Chris Pine gives his best work to date.

    Mike

    Absolutely. I’m shocked and baffled that “Hell or High Water” isn’t on this list. IMO the best movie of the year so far and it’s actually released. 98% of 175 reviews on RT, with an average rating of 8.6. 90% of the audience liked it and 4.3/5 rating out of almost 20k ratings.

    If it doesn’t end up with an Oscar nomination for Best Picture, something is seriously wrong.

      Mike

      To add, HOHW is also the currently highest rated movie on Metacritic with an 88 score, and the 10th highest rated of the year so far.
      Yet Indiewire keeps listing movies that have been released and have way worse reviews. Makes no sense.

        Reece Daniels

        The problem it faces is easily seen: early release, and limited release. I’m sure everyone who’s voting has seen it, but by the time the serious contenders stroll in, it’s going to be overshadowed by La La Land, Moonlight, etc. I could see it forcing it’s way through to a nomination.

Justin

If Maggie’s Plan gets nominated I sincerely promise to skin my cat and eat its heart. I’m more than confident I won’t have to do that.

Frey

La La Land should be considered a frontrunner. Its reviews were more than rave!

Riley

Interesting you have The Jungle Book as a “frontrunner” I would surprised if that was a Best Pic nominee

    Will

    She doesn’t have The Jungle Book in her GoldDerby predictions. I’m pretty sure she just needs to update this list.

    Evan

    “The Jungle Book” is a lock win Best Visual Effects no doubt about it. It would be cool if it got nominated for Best Picture and Best Director for Jon Favreau.

      Riley

      Theres a lot of good films I’m really looking forward to seeing! Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell Or High Water are really the only ones I’ve seen. Sully too i guess. I also LOVED deepwater horizon, probably a long shot and they might put all of Peter Berg’s eggs in one basket with Patriots day. Interested to see how Silence and Live By Night will factor in. Paramount did the same thing they’re doing with Silence as they did with the Big Short last year. That was a film that gained a lot of momentum going into nomination day and it looks like they are opting to take that same route with Silence. Lots of good stuff coming though, gonna be a tight race

Evan

I wish “Zootopia” was in the talks for Best Picture. But hey, it’s going to win Best Animated Film no matter what!

    JustaGuy

    Not sure about that. If Moana will be loved by critics and audiences, it will have better chances in my opinion due to its fall release. Everyone loved Zootopia but the hype surrounding it isnt as big as it was a few months ago. Of course, it has important topics about race and prejudice, yet Moana also has not-white protagonists and Moana herself is voiced by a Philippine or something like that (this is not racist, just unknowing). Furthermore, if the Academy wants to reward Studio Laika for their work, Kubo and The Two Strings is a acclaimed contender, too!

      Evan

      “Kubo” could definitely be a contender. I also think “Moana” may have a shot as well. But I honestly think either one may have a hard time topping “Zootopia” due to its topics on social issues. We’ll see in the coming months!

        Evan

        Also, what if “Moana” stills receives favorable reviews, but nowhere near as good as “Zootopia?” How well will it do at the box office? Odds are it will be a solid hit, but not as big of a hit as “Zootopia” and “Frozen.” It looks like it’ll be a good movie. However, it’s gonna be really hard to top the sublime quality of “Zootopia.” As for the hype surrounding it, from I’ve been seeing, it’s still pretty big. Byron Howard, Rich Moore and Clark Spencer deserve that Oscar, especially Moore since “Wreck-It Ralph” was robbed by the mediocre “Brave” a few years ago. They made a huge mistake on that!

          JustthesameGuy

          Or: The Academy just once again thinks, hey, we need to be hated by more people. Let´s just nominate The Secret Life of Pets instead of Zootopia like we nominated The Boxtrolls instead of The Lego Movie in 2014!

Declanmore

Once you have seen “Arrival” you know it is bigger than them all.

Jack Sauder

I keep checking back about once a week waiting for Zootopia to be added to the list. It’s not added yet? Why? Because it’s animated? That’s racist. I thought the Academy was over racism.

    Billiam Bottles

    I do the same thing every week. Why is Zootopia, a billion dollar 99% Rotten Tomatoes, socially relevant, internationally loved film… being overlooked? What are we scared of, Indiewire? We weren’t scared of predicting that Steve Jobs would win last year… WITHOUT HAVING EVEN SEEN IT.

Jamie

Birth of a Nation a long shot now? I’m sure that makes you happy to think that Indiewire considering you emphasized that audiences were forgetting about the scandal too quickly. Nate Parker’s art should be separate from his personal life, especially when he was acquitted.

    Avenger07

    But it has been a long shot for a while now, as more reviews come out Birth’s true chances will reveal, searchlight is not even throwing its weight behind it anymore.

    Kiev

    I’ve seen “Birth of a Nation” and it doesn’t deserve to be nominated for Best Picture. It’s a good attempt at a feature film by a first time director. That’s it. Nothing more.

      Mike

      Agreed. It’s an OK movie with a fantastic subject matter. From a movie-making standpoint it is not particularly great. With the right director it could’ve been amazing. Now it’s almost forgettable.

Avenger07

I saw this coming…..Moonlight has taken Birth of a Nation’s place at awards season, and deservedly so.

    Buckery

    Why does it have to be one or the other?

Joe

The best film I saw all year…THE BEST…was Café Society.

bebe goldestein

What about Don’t Think Twice and Paterson?

Naty

My god! Where is JACKIE? That movie was love for 90% of people in toronto and venice who saw it and won awards in that two festivals

Janan

DOCTOR STRANGE!!!!!!!!

DiceHellasCoward

They are not published here yet, so I just present mine.

Academy Award for Best Visual Effects
Predictions
Frontrunner:
THE JUNGLE BOOK
Contenders (already released):
CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR
THE BFG
Long Shots (already released):
STAR TREK BEYOND
PETE´S DRAGON
MISS PEREGRINE´S HOME FOR PECULIAR CHILDREN
Contenders (not released yet):
DOCTOR STRANGE
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY
ARRIVAL
FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM
PASSENGERS
Long Shots (not released yet):
A MONSTER CALLS
THE SPACE BETWEEN US
ASSASSIN´S CREED
Academy Award for Best Visual Effects
Predictions
Frontrunner:
THE JUNGLE BOOK
Contenders (already released):
CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR
THE BFG
Long Shots (already released):
STAR TREK BEYOND
PETE´S DRAGON
MISS PEREGRINE´S HOME FOR PECULIAR CHILDREN
Contenders (not released yet):
DOCTOR STRANGE
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY
ARRIVAL
FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM
PASSENGERS
Long Shots (not released yet):
A MONSTER CALLS
THE SPACE BETWEEN US
ASSASSIN´S CREED
Academy Award for Best Visual Effects
Predictions
Frontrunner:
THE JUNGLE BOOK
Contenders (already released):
CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR
THE BFG
Long Shots (already released):
STAR TREK BEYOND
PETE´S DRAGON
MISS PEREGRINE´S HOME FOR PECULIAR CHILDREN
Contenders (not released yet):
DOCTOR STRANGE
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY
ARRIVAL
FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM
PASSENGERS
BILLY LYNN´S LONG HALFTIME WALK
Long Shots (not released yet):
A MONSTER CALLS
THE SPACE BETWEEN US
ASSASSIN´S CREED

Jason

So are we updating this again anytime soon, or nah?

Calvin

After two years of Oscarsowhite, the nominees are:
Moonlight
Fences
Loving
The Birth of a Nation
Collateral Beauty
The Jungle Book
Queen of Katwe
Hidden Figures

    Leena

    Why must race be considered? It is a TALENT COMPETITION..not a race competition. If there were all black nominees in one year I would NEVER be offended because then no white actors would have deserved the nominee. If it were two years, three years, 6 years in a row, I would NEVER assume it were some conspiracy. Enough now. Race should be no factor when it comes to talent of this or any year’s acting skills. When I contemplate my favorite actors & actresses, I do not divide them by their skin tone and neither should you, its almost 2017 – Black and White Movies ended back in the 50s. Theres such a diverse group in the academy voting, and they most certainly do not have some “hidden agenda” when reviewing which talent deserves a little more recognition than the next… and they certainly do not weed people out by race. Will Smith’s wife caused chaos and made such a fuss sparking this “oscarssowhite” nonsense.. and as much as I love Will Smith and his movies, I saw Concussion and it was NOT his best performance.. his accent was mediocre and the movie itself was boring. If, for example, he had been nominated just so the oscars would be not “sowhite” that would be completely unfair for the rightful actor, regardless of race, who would have been more deserving of that spot. Bottomline. So please stop spreading hate.

      Joel

      Make [the Oscars] Great Again!

Portopoddle McSnake

Zootopia just began its Oscar campaign. The image it chose to represent it: 2 bunnies afraid of a tiger on a subway who poses no threat to them; he just looks different. What other animated film in history has been as powerful, moving and relevant? With UP, How to Train Your Dragon and Toy Story 3 all having been nominated for best picture (and two of them winning best animated), there is virtually NO reason that Zootopia wouldn’t be considered for best picture. Regardless of its 78% metacritic score (which is not a valid argument, considering it has a 98% on RT — making it officially one of the best reviewed films of the year), it made over A BILLION DOLLARS. I just want one, single argument, in writing, as to why it is not on this list.

    Nick

    HTTYD wasn’t nominated for Best Picture. I agree that Zootopia should be at least considered though.

Portopoddle

Ah, you are correct, maybe I just really thought it should have been.

I’m just tired of the top 10 (or on “Awards Circuit” – top 40! Okay, top 39, it landed at 40…) list not including Zootopia since it’s already proven to be good and made money and resonated with audiences world wide, whereas some of these movies have yet to be seen by critics.

But I guess this whole conversation is rendered moot by the fact that Crash won.

    Tim

    “list not including Zootopia since it’s already proven to be good and made money and resonated with audiences world wide, whereas some of these movies have yet to be seen by critics.”

    Having watched the oscars for a long long time, I can safely say that it’s not unreasonable to predict that Zootopia won’t be nominated. As it’s been pointed out, animated films RARELY ever got best picture nominations. First one was in 1991, over 60 years since the award ceremony began, and it’s not like award worthy animated pictures didn’t exist before then. Since then, only a handful have ever gotten nominated, but it’s still super rare. It only really happens when an animated picture becomes SO critically acclaimed, SO beloved by audiences, SO representative of the best films of the year, that the academy would be fools to ignore it. And even then, it’s up in the air.

    Let me put it this way, last year Inside Out got just as much critical acclaim, domestic box office revenue (let’s face it, when has the academy cared how much a film has made overseas?), and just as much audience praise as Zootopia has, for tackling a subject in such a complex way that animated movies haven’t yet, and yet it didn’t get any best picture nominations either. So what exactly stands out about Zootpia that means oscar predictors are STUPID for not listing it, and yet it perfectly makes sense that Inside Out didn’t get any similar nomination?

Tobeadded

Jackie should be added to this list. Great reviews and a story the Academy likes!

Reece

Here’s the real 10 as I see it (no order):
La La Land
Fences
Silence
Arrival
Moonlight
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Jackie
Hacksaw Ridge
Tough Calls:
Zootopia
Sully
Mostly because they had a bit of early releases, would they still be relevant by voting time?

We’re gonna have to wait for the critics awards to get a view of the real frontrunners.

    Reece

    Also, Live By Night as a tough call, along with Sully and Zootopia..

Frank Hogan

When A Movie Wraps Filming And Goes Into Post Production How Long before it Then Goes on Release? I ask because I know “55 Steps” is Currently In Post Production And I wondered How Soon It would be On Release? Will it be eligble for the Upcoming Awards in March or Will it be the 2018 Ceremony?

Dinorah

It’s a Big mistake not to place Jackie, not even as a Long Shot. After raves from critics , RottenTomatoes 96% positive, Metacritics score is 93, meaning Universal acclaim, including Variety, Hollywood Reporter and IndieWire. Serious readers will appreciate some kind of explanation.

    Mike

    This article hasn’t been updated since 9/30 and they hadn’t seen the movie, I assume.

      Sweetness

      They haven’t seen Silence, Patriot’s Day or Passengers either… just to name a few.

    Iagreetotally

    I agree. Jackie should be included, Billy Lynn, Allied and Rules Dont Apply should be thrown out

Omar

If the academy reads this…which I doubt…..you need to nominate ZOOTOPIA for best picture!!!!
Forget it was animated. Was the best picture of 2016.

    Reece Daniels

    No it wasn’t.

      Omar

      Wanna bet?

Dave

Seeing as 70% of the worlds population i think Me Before You would be a candidate.

Justin Jaeger

Indiewire used to be on their game with their predictions in terms of updates and being taken seriously, and this year they’ve been slacking big time

    Justin Jaeger

    actually gotta say these predictions have improved a bit and I see they’ve been updated recently, I take back 50% of what I said

Michael

Everyone knows the Oscars have to chose all black actors and themed movies this year and maybe even every year from now on or there will be riots and burning and looting

    j9

    blm

      Reece Daniels

      tbh, this year’s minority nominees aren’t “forced,” they genuinely deserve their nominations.

      Will Smith last year did not do a “spectacular, unbelievable, marvelous” performance in Concussion, yet people just wanted a black man in there so they voted for him (unsuccessfully). But Ruth Negga, Mahershala Ali, Denzel Washington, and Viola David (the 4 most likely) very much deserve their nominations, they aren’t just voted for to ease the tensions which I’m glad about!

Omar

I know it’s the Annie awards….Zootopia leads that pack with 11 nominations. Something tells me it’s gonna get Oscar consideration. Let’s hope so.

    Reece

    No, Zootopia will not be nominated for best picture. I can bet someone my entire life savings WITH CONFIDENCE that it won’t get nominated

      Omar

      If it doesn’t. Then shame on the academy. Plain and simple.

      Omar

      It’s on the AFI top 10 movie list. Animated films don’t make this list often. Last two animated films that made this list were nominated for best picture (UP and Toy Story 3). I guess say good bye to your life savings. And… It WAS that damn good.

Riley

It will be interesting to see what kind of wrenches get thrown into the race with Live By Night and Silence coming and I suppose Patriots Day also. It may too early and I’m not usually one to speculate, but I figured Silence and Live By Night if they were seen would sneak in. Revenant did last year and similar release schedule to these films. I’m wondering if the films just weren’t good enough or no one saw them. Also what about the Founder? Unlikely i suppose based (unfairly) on trailers that it will be anything but a vehicle for a Keaton acting nom. Plus weinsteins seem to be pushing Lion. So as of now I would say your favorites would be Arrival, Moonlight, Manchester By The Sea, La La Land, Loving, Lion and Fences. Just what I’ve observed so far. Would Hell or High Water to sneak in but I get the feeling it won’t

Riley

It will be interesting to see what kind of wrenches get thrown into the race with Live By Night and Silence coming and I suppose Patriots Day also. It may too early and I’m not usually one to speculate, but I figured Silence and Live By Night if they were seen would sneak in. Revenant did last year and similar release schedule to these films. I’m wondering if the films just weren’t good enough or no one saw them. Also what about the Founder? Unlikely i suppose based (unfairly) on trailers that it will be anything but a vehicle for a Keaton acting nom. Plus weinsteins seem to be pushing Lion. So as of now I would say your favorites would be Arrival, Moonlight, Manchester By The Sea, La La Land, Loving, Lion and Fences. Just what I’ve observed so far. Would Hell or High Water to sneak in but I get the feeling it won’t

Jack Sauder

AFI just released their 10 films and Zootopia was one of them. That at LEAST makes it worthy of a longshot mention on this list.

Rachel

I’d say Hacksaw Ridge is making a push to be nominated and Silence could slip in too, though early word for Live By Night isn’t good. At this point, it seems to be a two horse race between La La Land and Moonlight, but what other films will fill out the category will be interesting to see (I have my fingers crossed for Arrival, Lion, Silence and Hell or High Water).

bob sagat

“your name” will win the best animation

    JJN

    I’d be rather surprised if that happens. Consensus is that it’s been a good year for NA animation with “Zootopia”, “Kubo”, and “Moana” so there are plenty of good choices unlike the year when Wallace and Gromit won. Remember, most academy members are American and will have a preference for animation from American studios.

    As well, “Tortue Rouge” is in the mix if someone is looking for foreign animation. “Your Name” has had a low profile, and I don’t expect it will even get a nomination.

Arslan Baig

La La Land will win the Oscar for Best Picture!

JJN

The AFI top 10 looks like a good starting point to consider the contenders. I think the nominees will be drawn from those 10 along with the AFI-ineligible “Lion” and “Jackie” (not all of these will make it of course). Perhaps “Hidden Figures” could make a late charge based on reviews, but it would be tough. Here’s my call …

Locks:
“La La Land” (likely winner), “Moonlight”, “Manchester by the Sea”

Very good chance:
“Arrival”, “Silence”, “Fences”, “Sully”, “Hell or High Water”

Possibilities:
“Hacksaw Ridge”, “Zootopia”, “Lion”, “Hidden Figures”

Several of the other candidates have underperformed at the box office. A smaller film doesn’t have to be huge to make it in, but getting to $25-30m really helps.

Re: “Zootopia”, I’d love to see a nomination happen, but I just don’t feel any momentum. The award hasn’t been kind to animated films and it was released early in the year. In spite of the obvious love many have for it, there’s been kind of a backlash to it too. It’s restricted to the animation category in the Golden Globes and is ineligible at the writers guild awards and obviously irrelevant to SAG, so it doesn’t have a chance to rebuild momentum like the Mad Max sequel did. But I could be wrong!

    Omar

    La la land or hacksaw ridge will be the likely winner. Surprised sully hasn’t got much attention at the globes. As far as Zootopia, last 2 animated films that were on the AFI list were nominated for best picture. So let’s see.

      Reece Daniels

      Zootopia is definitely not landing a best picture nod.. It’s not even definite for the animated film category!

        Omar

        Reece….I don’t mean to be rude…but after that last comment…I must ask you…where do you get your meth from?

          Reece

          All Zootopia has is AFI, majority of the guilds have gone for Kubo….it’s a tough race.

          Just because you loved Zootopia doesn’t make it any better

        JJN

        Zootopia is a definite lock for an Animated Film nomination. The only two films to have gotten much love from the critics are Zootopia and Kubo, and I can’t see either missing from the noms.

          Mystery Man

          And I have to agree! “Zootopia” and “Kubo and the Two Strings” are both locks for the nomination. As far as the winner goes, I give “Zootopia” the edge.

        Mystery Man

        “Zootopia” made the AFI’s Top 10 Films of 2016 list and when an animated movie makes that list, it gets nominated for Best Animated Feature and also wins. “Shrek,” “Finding Nemo,” “The Incredibles,” “Happy Feet,” “Ratatouille,” “WALL-E,” and “Inside Out” may not have been Best Picture nominations, but they all made got nominated for and even won Best Animated Feature. “Up” and “Toy Story 3” both got nominated for Best Picture and won Best Animated Feature as well. All of those animated movies I mentioned made the AFI’s Top 10 list in the years each of them was released. However, in 2009, “Up” and “Coraline” both made the list that year and needless to say “Up” won the Oscar. So they pretty much have been accurate with the Best Animated Film winners. That doesn’t mean “Zootopia” will get nominated for Best Picture (odds are it won’t, which is a shame), but it’s destined to get nominated for Best Animated Feature and most likely win. It also won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Animated Feature and has been gaining some momentum in the guild awards as well!

Raul

I really hope Hell or High Water is nominated. I loved that film.

Jen

The actors are the ones who vote for the best picture and whichever pictures get the most votes will get nominated.

Joanie

There are some very substantial films this year. As long as Harvey Weinstein isn’t connected with the film, it’s probably worthy. Nicole, it’s probably time to disengage yourself from old Harvey.

Andrés

Come on! Take Loving out of that list already! Silence is an obvious nominee, Globes and SAG didn’t included it because they barely saw it, is like The Revenant of this year, just wait ’till it opens limited and may get a lot of attention. 20th Century Women and Jungle Book are not even contenders now.

Alex

Silence a long shot? i think its a sure thing

JJN

I think you’re over-rating Loving. It hasn’t been a top pick in the Award race so far, and hasn’t broken out at the box office. As well, with the ranked balloting, much of its audience will break for Fences or Moonlight instead.

Silence appears to be a tough-slog for general audiences, and won’t do well in theatres. I’m not even sure I want to see it myself. But the critics are mainly appreciative so far, so I think it’s at least a contender.

Cody Smith

It’s really great article! Thanks!

John

Loving? Really? It wasn’t a bad film but it’s not as great as Lion or Hacksaw Ridge. Plus, I haven’t seen 20th Century Woman, but I don’t get why the writer here has so much hype behind it.

Gustavo

Loving, a frontrunner? Ok, then…

Jarro

The Lobster. Innovative film making. Colin Farrell and Rachel Weiss best acting. Won’t happen… why I no longer watch the awards.

Jesse Meehl

This article loses all credibility when it lists Loving as a front runner and The Jungle Book as a contender.

I loved The Jungle Book, but its not even close to Oscar material, unless we’re talking special effects etc.

Anneke

Sara

Aah they forgot Drake Doremus’s movies, he has interesting story lines and who can’t resist Nicholas Hoult?He’s a great actor.

    James

    wrong year

Tim

Deadpool? A contender? Really?

I mean, I liked the film, but….really? It just looks rather out of place amongst those other films the academy more often tends to nominate.

    John

    Deadpool has a PGA nomination, so that’s why. I can see it happening but I don’t want it to.

    James

    GG (not a big deal tho), WGA, PGA, and technically DGA (but I don’t count it)..

daniel lupien

La la la land

Tobey

My top 10 films of this year are : Jackie
La La Land
Zootopia
Finding dory (Dont judge)
Moonlight
Captain Fantastic
Nocturnal Animals
Hidden Figures
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts (Big HP fan)
Dream nominations but wont happen. Havent seen hacksaw ridge, lion or manchester by the sea so list could change but Jackie is my number one of the year I think

Nathan Osborne

I think we’ll see another eight nominee year. La La Land, Moonlight and Manchester are certainties and I’m hoping Arrival is too. Hidden Figures and Hacksaw Ridge seem pretty safe bets. I’ll go out on a limb and say Zootopia and Sully (with the latter being the surprise of the season because its exact what the Oscars love). If we expand to ten, my money is on Silence and Lion.

Check out my full predictions for Picture, Director, Actor, Actress and both Supporting categories here – http://perksofbeingnath.blogspot.com/2017/01/2017-oscar-shortlist-predictions.html

Lulú

SING STREET

Jack Sauder

So, the only reason Zootopia won’t get nominated is because it’s animated?

That is THE DEFINITION of racism.

    Phill

    ummmmm, no? That’s not why.. up, toy story 3, and beauty and the beast got nominated. They were animated, and they were far better than Zootopia. The bar is set pretty high for animated films in this category..

mike

Why aren’t you doing the “predicted winner” and “potential spoiler” thing you do every year?

Bob

I think La La Land is too strong to lose Best Picture at this point. Personally, I like La La Land but thought it was flawed. If you feel the same, you might like this video. If you love La La Land, well…here it is anway!

chas gallagher

I like to see which films win Oscars. SO I CAN AVOID THEM

    Phill

    “oooh, I’m such a special snowflake. I don’t like movies that win awards bc its a corrupted system and my favorites never win anything ooooooooooo”

Rai_The_Noblesse

Arrival had better not win best movie..it was ok, but back then Sphere was way better and didn’t even get nomitated. ..

Michal L

Why you don’t do will win and shoul win?

Maria

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