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Golden Globes 2017 Predictions: IndieWire’s Anne Thompson Makes Bold Picks

Predicting the Golden Globes is hazardous, especially this year. Yes, "La La Land" will dominate the best musical/comedy categories. We tackle the rest as well.

La La Land

“La La Land”

Lionsgate

Early Friday morning, a messenger arrived at the front doors of 90 voting members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Some of them had stayed up all night filling out their paper ballots in all Golden Globe categories, both film and TV (those predictions here). One member admitted to me that she only ventures out to movies she feels she has to see, as she’d rather stay home watching TV. (This is our world, folks.) This group, like the Academy, skews over 50.

“Arrival”

That said, expect a few surprises when the nominations are announced Monday morning. With both Musical/Comedy and Drama categories — which will likely be dominated by consensus favorites “La La Land” and “Manchester By the Sea,” respectively — there are more slots for Globe winners such as “Florence Foster Jenkins” stars Meryl Streep and Hugh Grant, Tom Hanks (“Sully”), Denzel Washington (“Fences”), Mel Gibson (“Hacksaw Ridge”), Amy Adams (“Arrival”), Sally Field (“Hello, My Name is Doris”), Natalie Portman (“Jackie”), and Nicole Kidman (“Lion”).

Kenneth Lonergan, Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams

Photo by James Shaw/REX/Shutterstock

1. Best Drama

“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
“Fences”
“Silence”
“Arrival”

Remember, this is the Golden Globes. Heart-tugger “Lion” is popular and Harvey Weinstein works this group every year, but they may just opt for Kidman and Dev Patel. Are they ready to forgive Gibson? If so, “Hacksaw Ridge” could sneak in.

2. Best Comedy/Musical

“La La Land”
“20th Century Women”
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“The Lobster”
“Sing Street”

Again, expect Harvey to work his wiles with “Sing Street,” which is popular with this group.

3. Best Film Drama Actor

Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”)
Denzel Washington (“Fences”)
Joel Edgerton (“Loving”)
Tom Hanks (“Sully”)
Andrew Garfield (“Hacksaw Ridge”)

It will be a close race between current momentum-building Casey Affleck and popular Globes star Denzel Washington. If the HFPA isn’t ready to go all the way with Gibson’s “Hacksaw Ridge,” a nomination for Garfield may be their way to recognize the movie. And Viggo Mortensen could sneak in for “Captain Fantastic.”

“Jackie”

Fox Searchlight Pictures

4. Best Film Drama Actress

Natalie Portman (“Jackie”)
Amy Adams (“Arrival”)
Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”)
Ruth Negga (“Loving”)
Jessica Chastain (“Miss Sloane”)

Will Huppert continue her winning streak? With Stone in the Comedy category, this could be Portman’s chance to shine.

"La La Land"

Emma Stone in “La La Land”

5. Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress

Emma Stone (“La La Land”)
Annette Bening (“20th Century Women”)
Meryl Streep (“Florence Foster Jenkins”)
Kate Beckinsale (“Love and Friendship”)
Sally Field (“Hello My Name Is Doris”)

Emma Stone sings, dances and steals our hearts in this tour-de-force performance. It’s hers.

Ryan Gosling in”La La Land”

Summit Entertainment

6. Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor

Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”)
Hugh Grant (“Florence Foster Jenkins”)
Colin Farrell (“The Lobster”)
Ryan Reynolds (“Deadpool”)
Warren Beatty (“Rules Don’t Apply”)

Notch another win for “La La Land” for song and dance man Gosling who also learned to tickle the ivories well enough to not need a music double.

Denzel Washington and Viola Davis in Fences movie

“Fences”

Paramount Pictures

7. Best Film Supporting Actress

Viola Davis (“Fences”)
Michelle Williams (“Manchester by the Sea”)
Naomie Harris (“Moonlight”)
Nicole Kidman (“Lion”)
Greta Gerwig (“20th Century Women”)

No one will deny powerhouse Viola Davis this win.

Mahershala Ali Moonlight

Mahershala Ali

Daniel Bergeron

8. Best Film Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”)
Jeff Bridges (“Hell or High Water”)
Liam Neeson (“Silence”)
Lucas Hedges (“Manchester by the Sea”)
Dev Patel (“Lion”)

Gaining forward momentum is the heart and soul of “Moonlight,” Mahershala Ali’s poignant portrayal of the drug dealer who mentors young Chiron.

Damien Chazelle

Photo by Dave Allocca/Starpix/REX/Shutterstock

9. Best Film Director

Damien Chazelle (“La La Land”)
Kenneth Lonergan (“Manchester by the Sea”)
Denzel Washington (“Fences”)
Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”)
Martin Scorsese (“Silence”)

Chazelle is likely to be the consensus choice here, as multiple drama contenders split the vote.

10. Best Screenplay

“Manchester by the Sea”
“La La Land”
“Moonlight”
“Loving”
“Hell or High Water”

It’s Lonergan for the win here.

“Zootopia”

11. Best Animated Film

“Zootopia”
“The Red Turtle”
“Moana”
“Sing”
“Kubo and the Two Strings”

Disney’s $1 billion blockbuster should continue to dominate this category. It’s on a roll.

Pedro Almodovar, Michael Barker, Isabelle Huppert, Sandra Huller, Peter Simonischek

Anne Thompson

12. Best Foreign Language Film

“Elle”
“Toni Erdmann”
“Julieta”
“The Handmaiden”
“The Salesman”

French star Isabelle Huppert may not win the Best Actress Globe, but her movie should take this category.

13. Best Film Score

Justin Hurwitz (“La La Land”)
Jóhann Jóhannsson (“Arrival”)
Nicholas Britell (“Moonlight”)
Micachu (“Jackie”)
Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka (“Lion”)

Lin-Manuel Miranda

Lin-Manuel Miranda

14. Best Film Song

“How Far I’ll Go” (“Moana”)
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” (“La La Land”)
“City of Stars” (“La La Land”)
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” (“Trolls”)
“Drive It Like You Stole It” (“Sing Street”)

The Two “La La Land” singles may split the vote, leaving “Hamilton” creator Lin-Manuel Miranda on track for the EGOT for his song of yearning in “Moana.”

The 74th Golden Globe nominations will be announced Monday, December 12 at 5:30am PT.

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