Back to IndieWire

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Here are Anne Thompson’s current predictions for the 2018 Oscar contenders in the Best Picture category. Updated 1/9/18.

Warner Bros.

This year’s strongest Oscar contenders are a mix of established veterans and rising stars. Sundance debuted Luca Guadagnino’s critically hailed “Call Me By Your Name,” which Sony Pictures Classics is pushing hard with audiences and voters this fall. The other darling of the Sundance Film Festival, true romance “The Big Sick,” is a well-mounted summer crowdpleaser with an impressive cast. So is Dee Rees’ “Mudbound,” but it remains to be seen if Netflix can drive a non-documentary Oscar campaign.

Smart Hitchcockian sleeper hit “Get Out,” from writer-director Jordan Peele, could go the distance despite its horror genre.

READ MORE: 2018 Oscar Predictions

Cannes broke out Sean Baker’s slice of poverty row “The Florida Project” (A24) starring discovery Brooklynn Prince and veteran Willem Dafoe.

On June 2, Patty Jenkins’ “Wonder Woman” opened to $103 million with rave reviews and instantly entered the Oscar race for strong performances from Gal Gadot and Chris Pine as well as multiple technical achievements. Warner Bros. is mounting a major campaign with more than technical nods in their sights.

Previous Oscar contenders Steven Spielberg, Paul Thomas Anderson and Alexander Payne all released new efforts. And Peele, Guadagnino and Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”) are seeking to join the club.

Another strong studio entry is the one to beat: Christopher Nolan’s lauded World War II original blockbuster “Dunkirk,” featuring a strong cast of newcomers along with supporting veterans Kenneth Branagh, Mark Rylance and Tom Hardy, who manages to carry deep emotion even while hidden behind a pilot’s mask.

“Darkest Hour”

Focus Features

Joe Wright’s companion piece “Darkest Hour” (Working Title/Focus Features) written by Anthony McCarten (“Theory of Everything”), details the events leading up to Dunkirk from the point of view of England’s Prime Minister Winston Churchill (wily Golden Globe winner Gary Oldman), who hit the ground running as he tried to save the world from Adolf Hitler. The movie broke out at Telluride and could go all the way, giving “Dunkirk” serious competition. If “Dunkirk” is about immersive big-scale action, “Darkest Hour” is about the power of words.

Toronto audience award-winner Martin McDonagh’s zeitgeisty “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” will muster support for three superb actors: Frances McDormand, Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell, as well as McDonagh’s writing.

"Lady Bird"

“Lady Bird”


Telluride introduced writer-actress Greta Gerwig’s “Lady Bird,” a strong coming-of-age dramedy starring Saoirse Ronan as a Sacramento high school senior desperate to escape the confines of her life. Like “Boyhood,” moviegoers connect strongly with this specific but universal story, which “Moonlight” distributor A24 will push hard — urged on by Oscar-winning producer Scott Rudin (“No Country for Old Men”).

Also at Telluride was Fox Searchlight’s “The Shape of Water,” a 60s fantasy romance starring the incandescent Sally Hawkins, from the fertile imagination of Guillermo del Toro. Actors will appreciate Hawkins’ luminous mute performance, and the crafts will recognize Del Toro’s filmmaking mastery across the board, including yet another fabulous creature, Doug Jones’ alluring merman.

"Blade Runner 2049"

“Blade Runner 2049”

And a non-festival entry from “Arrival” director Denis Villeneuve, “Blade Runner 2049” (Alcon/Warner Bros.), is a stunning cinematic achievement which will be embraced by the crafts across the board, could score Harrison Ford a Supporting actor nomination, and long-denied cinematographer Roger Deakins the win he so richly deserves.

The list of contenders is listed (alphabetically) below. No film will be deemed a frontrunner until I have seen it.


“The Big Sick”
“Call Me By Your Name”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
“Wonder Woman”


“Blade Runner 2049”
“Darkest Hour”
“I, Tonya”
“Molly’s Game”

Long Shots

“The Florida Project”
“Phantom Thread”

Stay on top of the latest breaking film and TV news! Sign up for our Email Newsletters here.

This Article is related to: Awards and tagged ,