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SAG Awards Film Predictions 2018: Laying Oscar Odds for ‘Lady Bird,’ ‘The Post,’ and ‘Call Me By Your Name’

The SAG Award nominations will reveal the strength and weakness of the wide field of Oscar hopefuls.

“The Post”

Courtesy of 20th Century Fox

Many awards shows are important to the Oscars; they act as divining rods, pointing toward the films in toppling screener piles that most deserve voters’ attentions. However, tomorrow’s announcement of the Screen Actors Award nominees stands alone. Like the other Hollywood guilds, SAG voters actually overlap with the Academy — and no guild is more predictive of the actual race.

SAG TV and film nominating committees attend screenings in eight national markets. When it comes to the final vote, all national SAG/AFTRA members weigh in via online screenings and voting. (Last year’s voters numbered 121,000.) This year’s blissfully brief two-hour SAG Awards will air live January 21, right before Oscar nominations are announced on January 23.

While being slightly more mainstream, SAG Awards voters tend to align with the Academy actors branch and adds momentum to certain races. The SAG Ensemble award often presages the eventual Oscar Best Picture winner: Last year, SAG voters gave the Best Ensemble prize “Hidden Figures,” which was a sign of strength for a movie that eventually landed three Oscar nominations, including Best Picture.

As usual, those who land nods from SAG alone are more likely to land an Oscar slot than from the Globes alone. Land both groups, and you have better odds of landing an Oscar nomination. Those who get neither reduce their chances. Expect a few surprises among the multiple nominations for actor-friendly suspects such as big Golden-Globe drama players “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” from Fox Searchlight, Fox’s “The Post,” and Sony Pictures Classics’ “Call Me By Your Name.”

"The Big Sick" Premiere: Michael Showalter, Emily Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani, Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel, Holly Hunter and Ray Romano

“The Big Sick” Premiere: Michael Showalter, Emily Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani, Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel, Holly Hunter and Ray Romano

Chris O'Falt

Several Globe comedy players are hoping for additional SAG nods, including A24’s “Lady Bird” and “The Disaster Artist,” Neon’s “I, Tonya,” Paramount’s “Downsizing,” and Focus Features’ “Victoria & Abdul.” And Universal is looking for inclusionary SAG voters to reward not only Globe comedy nominee “Get Out” but also New York Film Critics Circle Supporting Actress winner Tiffany Haddish for “Girls Trip.”

Films with strong ensembles are hoping for more actor love, including A24’s “The Florida Project,” Focus Features’ “Darkest Hour” and “Phantom Thread,” Netflix’s “Mudbound,” STX’s “Molly’s Game” and Amazon/Lionsgate’s Globes-snubbed “The Big Sick.” (Holly Hunter: Come on!)

“The Shape of Water”

Film Ensemble

“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
“Call Me By Your Name”
“Mudbound”

Spoilers:

“Lady Bird”
“Darkest Hour”

4106_D015_00585_R_CROPGary Oldman stars as Winston Churchill and Ben Mendelsohn as King George VI in director Joe Wright's DARKEST HOUR, a Focus Features release.Credit: Jack English / Focus Features

“Darkest Hour”

Jack English

Film Actor

Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”)
Daniel Day-Lewis (“Phantom Thread”)
Timothee Chalamet (“Call My By Your Name”)
Tom Hanks (“The Post”)
James Franco (“The Disaster Artist)

Spoilers:

Jake Gyllenhaal (“Stronger”)
Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”)
Denzel Washington (“Roman J. Israel, Esq.”)

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri””

Fox Searchlight

Film Actress

Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”)
Sally Hawkins (“The Shape of Water”)
Meryl Streep (“The Post”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Lady Bird”)
Margot Robbie (“I, Tonya”)

Spoilers:
Jessica Chastain (“Molly’s Game”)
Judi Dench (“Victoria & Abdul”)

Saoirse Ronan and Metcalf in “Lady Bird.”

Photo by Merie Wallace, courtesy of A24

Film Supporting Actress

Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”)
Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”)
Holly Hunter (“The Big Sick”)
Octavia Spencer (“The Shape of Water”)
Mary J. Blige (“Mudbound”)

Spoilers:

Lesley Manville (“Phantom Thread”)
Tiffany Haddish (“Girls Trip”)
Hong Chau (“Downsizing”)
Melissa Leo (“Novitiate”)

Armie Hammer, Michael Stuhlbarg, Luca Guadagnino, Timothée Chalamet and Walter Fasano

Armie Hammer, Michael Stuhlbarg, Luca Guadagnino, Timothée Chalamet and Walter Fasano

Daniel Bergeron

Supporting Actor

Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”)
Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”)
Michael Stuhlbarg (“Call Me By Your Name”)
Ben Mendelsohn (“Darkest Hour”)
Armie Hammer (“Call Me By Your Name”)

Spoilers:

Jason Mitchell (“Mudbound”)
Richard Jenkins (“The Shape of Water”)
Bob Odenkirk (“The Post”)

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