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2018 Golden Globe Film Predictions: Bold Picks in Every Category

"The Shape of Water" and "The Post" should dominate the dramatic categories, while "Lady Bird" is looking very strong on the Comedy side.

"Shape of Water"

“The Shape of Water”

Screenshot

It’s wise not to be cocky about Golden Globe predictions, as this idiosyncratic group of 90 Hollywood foreign press always throws a few surprises. But it’s safe to assume, given that “The Shape of Water” led the 2018 awards nominations with seven, followed by “The Post” and “Three Billboards Over Ebbing, Missouri” with six, that all three dramatic contenders will pick up some wins, along with Comedy frontrunner “Lady Bird” from Greta Gerwig.

“The Post”

Best Motion Picture – Drama Nominees

“Call Me by Your Name”
“Dunkirk”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Will Win: “The Shape of Water”
Could Win: “The Post”

The Hollywood foreign press adores Guillermo del Toro and this romantic fantasy set in a magical ’60s Hollywood-inflected world (literally, Toronto). If they don’t come to a consensus on this, Steven Spielberg’s timely political reminder of the importance of the freedom of the press also plays well to this group.

“Lady Bird” star Saoirse Ronan and director Greta Gerwig

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Nominees

“The Disaster Artist”
“Get Out”
“The Greatest Showman”
“I, Tonya”
“Lady Bird”

Will Win: “Lady Bird”
Could Win: “Get Out”

Popular writer-actress-director Greta Gerwig has the edge for her coming-of-age comedy, which is likely to sway this group more than Jordan Peele’s admired original Hitchcockian take on race, “Get Out.”

“Darkest Hour”

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama Nominees

Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Tom Hanks, “The Post”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esquire”

Will Win: Gary Oldman
Could Win: Timothee Chalamet

“Darkest Hour” star Gary Oldman is the favorite as Winston Churchill, his first Globe nomination, but charmer Chalamet has been wooing votes wherever he goes, much as Eddie Redmayne did with “The Theory of Everything.”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama Nominees

Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”
Michelle Williams, “All the Money in the World”

Will Win: Frances McDormand
Could Win: Sally Hawkins

This race is almost too close to call, but I’m going to bet that HFPA voters will give six-time Globe nominee McDormand the only win for this popular movie — even if she doesn’t play the awards circuit. And yet, “The Shape of Water” gives Hawkins the best showcase of her career.

"The Disaster Artist"

“The Disaster Artist”

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Nominees

Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes”
Ansel Elgort, “Baby Driver”
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
Hugh Jackman, “The Greatest Showman”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”

Will Win: James Franco
Could Win: Daniel Kaluuya

Franco will take this by a mile, because this will be the best opportunity to reward him for taking charge of this entire project. And yet, this is another chance to recognize “Get Out.”

Beanie Feldstein and Saoirse Ronan in "Lady Bird."

Beanie Feldstein and Saoirse Ronan in “Lady Bird”

A24

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Nominees

Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”
Helen Mirren, “The Leisure Seeker”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Emma Stone, “Battle of the Sexes”

Will Win: Saorise Ronan
Could Win: Judi Dench

The Hollywood Foreign Press leans older and fonder of stars they have known for many years like Dench, who has 12 total nominations (including three for television). But the momentum is with third-timer Ronan, who knocks the title role of “Lady Bird” out of the park.

willem dafoe florida project

Willem Dafoe in “The Florida Project”

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture Nominees

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Armie Hammer, “Call Me by Your Name”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Will Win: Willem Dafoe
Could Win: Sam Rockwell

Veteran Dafoe could mark the one win for heart-tugger “The Florida Project.” He has never been more warmly winning in a role. But so is Rockwell, who tracks an amazing character arc as a despicable bigot for whom we nonetheless feel sympathy.

Allison Janney in “I, Tonya”

Courtesy of NEON

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture Nominees

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Hong Chau, “Downsizing”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Will Win: Allison Janney
Could Win: Laurie Metcalf

These two top-flight character stars are duking it out across the awards groups for their dueling mom roles, from the Globes to SAG to in all likelihood the Oscars. Janney is a long-time favorite on the TV side of the Globes (this is her sixth Globe nomination and she’s never won).

Guillermo del Toro'The Shape of Water' premiere, BFI London Film Festival, UK - 10 Oct 2017

Guillermo del Toro of “The Shape of Water”

FeatureflashSHM/REX/Shutterstock

Best Director – Motion Picture Nominees

Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
Ridley Scott, “All the Money in the World”
Steven Spielberg, “The Post”

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
Could Win: Steven Spielberg, “The Post”

Here’s where the HFPA devotion to Del Toro will bear fruit. But Spielberg is another old favorite.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture Nominees

Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, “The Shape of Water”
Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, “The Post”
Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Aaron Sorkin, “Molly’s Game”

Will Win: Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Could Win: Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, “The Post”

If anyone can snatch away Greta Gerwig’s victory here, it’s surging holiday film “The Post.”

Best Original Score – Motion Picture Nominees

Sally Hawkins and Octavia Spencer in the film THE SHAPE OF WATER. Photo courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures. © 2017 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation All Rights Reserved

Sally Hawkins and Octavia Spencer in “The Shape of Water”

Carter Burwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Alexandre Desplat, “The Shape of Water”
Jonny Greenwood, “Phantom Thread”
John Williams, “The Post”
Hans Zimmer, “Dunkirk”

Will Win: Alexandre Desplat
Could Win: Jonny Greenwood

Again, the HFPA knows and loves French composer Desplat, but could respond to Greenwood’s stunning score.

Best Original Song – Motion Picture Nominees

“Home” from “Ferdinand”
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound”
“Remember Me” from “Coco”
“The Star” from “The Star”
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman”

Will Win: “Remember Me”
Could Win: “Mighty River” from “Mudbound”

“Coco” has this one in the bag, as it will at the Oscars. But the HFPA could lean into pop icon Mary J. Blige as a starry asset for their show.

“Coco”

Best Animated Feature Film Nominees

“The Boss Baby”
“The Breadwinner”
“Coco”
“Ferdinand”
“Loving Vincent”

Will Win: “Coco”
Could Win: “The Breadwinner”

Angelina Jolie, Loung Ung. Angelina Jolie, left, director/co-writer of the film "First They Killed My Father: A Daughter of Cambodia Remembers," and co-writer/human rights activist Loung Ung pose for a portrait during the Toronto International Film Festival in Toronto2017 TIFF - "First They Killed My Father" Portrait Session, Toronto, Canada - 11 Sep 2017

Angelina Jolie and Loung Ung

Invision/AP/REX/Shutterstock

Best Foreign-Language Film Nominees

“A Fantastic Woman”
“First They Killed My Father”
“In the Fade”
“Loveless”
“The Square”

Will Win: “First They Killed My Father”
Could Win: “A Fantastic Woman”

The Globes voters should come through for Oscar-snubbed underdog Angelina Jolie. But moving Chilean transgender drama “A Fantastic Woman” starring Daniela Vega is also admired.

The 75th Annual Golden Globe Awards will air live across the country on NBC on Sunday, Jan. 7, 2018 at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET from the Beverly Hilton Hotel with host Seth Meyers.

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