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For Your Consideration: 10 Things The Fall Fests Told Us About Awards Season

by Peter Knegt (September 23, 2009)
For Your Consideration: 10 Things The Fall Fests Told Us About Awards Season
A scene from Lee Daniels’ "Precious." Image courtesy of Lions Gate.

Two weeks ago, indieWIRE published an article speculating what the Venice-Telluride-Toronto trifecta of film festivals might tell us about the fast approaching 2009 awards season. And as it turns out, we were mostly right. But what’s unfortunate about that is what an unexciting two weeks it made for.  Perhaps the fact that “Precious” ending up winning Toronto’s audience award speaks to that more than anything else.  Almost everything that materialized from those three major fests we either already knew, or probably saw coming.  So let’s return to indieWIRE‘s ten aforepublished suggestions, and see where things stand now that the dust has settled:

1. Are “Precious” and “An Education” the real deal?

Suggestion: “These crowd-pleasers are made for festivals like Toronto, and I wouldn’t blame Carey Mulligan or Mo’Nique if they started practicing Oscar speeches in their Toronto hotel mirrors.”

Outcome: As noted, “Precious” ended up taking Toronto’s audience award, the first time in history a film won such a prize at both Sundance and Toronto.  And even if it hadn’t, both the media and public stormed the film’s arrival at the festival, and it was quickly clear any buzz that came with “Precious”‘s Sundance debut had far from decipitated.  The same goes for “Precious”‘s Sundance sister “An Education,” which screened in both Toronto and Telluride and was the source of considerable interest at both.  Both these films seem essentially assured a slot in Oscar’s top 10, while “Precious”’ Mo’Nique and “Education”‘s Mulligan are both securely locked into nods in their respective acting categories.

2. Can this female coming-of-age trend extend beyond those two films?

Suggestion: Speaking specificially to Francesca Gregorini and Tatiana von Furstenberg’s prep school-circa-today-set “Tanner Hall” and Jordan Scott’s boarding school-circa-1934-set “Cracks,” we wondered whether the female coming of age trend in fess this year (dominated by the former “Precious” and “Education”), could extend to these two buzzy titles. Our suggestion lacked much confidence, but bet if either took off, they’d head to 2010.

Outcome: Neither title managed to gain much traction in Toronto, but this speaks to a whole other issue (see #9).

3. Is Michael Moore still capable of causing a stir? And can this equal a best picture nomination?

Suggestion: “‘Capitalism: A Love Story’ still rouses the crowds, but it’s quieter than usual, and talk of a best picture nomination dies quickly.

Outcome: Our suggestion was maybe overly optimistic.  Critical support out of the fests was definitely more tepid that usual for Moore, and public interest was certainly not as loud as we’ve seen in the past.  A best picture nomination is a very unlikely idea at this point.

4. Is Tom Ford capable of making a good movie?

Suggestion: “I’d love to say I’m sure it will end up a poignant tale of gay love and loss (its about Firth’s character losing his longtime lover in a car crash) and puts Julianne Moore (playing Firth’s fun-loving best gal pal) in line for gold, but that’s a grand prediction to make considering Ford’s entirely unproven directorial talents.”

Outcome: Perhaps we should have been more grand. Ford’s “A Single Man” premiered at Venice to raves, won the fest’s best actor prize, and then headed to Toronto to quickly become the only major awards discovery out of any of these festivals so far.  While landing on the best picture top ten might be a stretch for this artful, somewhat uncommercial film, nods for stars Colin Firth and Julianne Moore (and art direction and costume design) seem like good possibilities.

5. Did “The Road”‘s delays actually suggest anything about how good it is?

Suggestion: “It’ll be better than most of us might have thought, but too bleak to make a serious play for Oscar’s big categories.”

Outcome: Critical response was quite intensely mixed, but those who liked it seemed to really like it. That said, it’s hard to take the film seriously as a major Oscar contender just yet - we’ll have to wait until late November to see how the film’s theatrical release is met both publicly and critically before making confident judgements. At this point, though, the Weinsteins’ “Road” to Oscar might be long and hard.

-This article continues on page 2-

 
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posted on September 23, 2009
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