2012 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Indiewire will provide regular updates of our predictions for the 84th Academy Award winners through February 26th, when the winners are announced.

Best picture predictions below. Check out all predictions in all the categories here.

The Nominees:
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

The Predicted Winner: The Artist
The Possible Spoiler: The Help
Shoulda Been Here: Melancholia

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TAGS: Academy Awards

430 Comments

| Reply
Roxanne I. | February 26, 2012 9:24 PMReply

The Descendants...The Tree of Life....The Help...they are all great in their own way. Thank you guys and best of luck.
MattyD | February 26, 2012 10:13 AMReply

Just saw The Artist on Friday..I loved it. I was planning on seeing The Descendants before the Oscars, but I didn't have time. It's a race between the two. That's not my boisterous opinion it's just what the race has always been down to. But I wonder, what if there is a surprise win for something else..? If there is truly a Darkhorse then it would be Hugo, or (because everybody has seen it) The Help.
ross | February 26, 2012 6:30 AMReply

war hose should win bcause it is an brilliant film and has me clipped to it so go war horse
Walt | February 25, 2012 2:27 PMReply

The Artist...ugh. For me, the sleeper of the year, that is, it put me to sleep. Predictable and boring with all the elements that made actual silent pictures go the way of the dinosaur. What IS the Academy thinking?
JoJo | February 27, 2012 12:00 AM

arrggg The Artist won...arrrgg.tired of these artsy forgien films winning, no dialog...arggg suk
Joseph | February 24, 2012 9:19 PMReply

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help and War Horse need to be removed and replaced by Drive, Shame or Melancholia, something else. I'm not saying that the movies I think should be removed do not have oscar worthy material (except for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) there just not very original...at all. We've seen films like them before many times. I think films that get nominated for oscars (especially best picture) should bring something new.
Mary | February 24, 2012 12:40 AMReply

Hugo,brought together past and present film surrealism.I enjoyed the tribute.
Terrance Malick | February 23, 2012 7:34 PMReply

Thanks God, I'm glad you appreciated my film!
GOD | February 23, 2012 7:33 PMReply

The Tree of Life was clearly the year's best film. And I should know-I am God after all.
Morgan Freeman | February 25, 2012 5:54 PM

No, I'm God
T.R. | February 24, 2012 10:48 AM

I don't believe [in] you.
Alexander Payne | February 23, 2012 7:27 PMReply

Okay, I guess that even though I directed The Descendants I have to admit that The Tree of Life was better.
Alexander Payne | February 23, 2012 7:26 PMReply

Clooney, you traitor!
George Clooney | February 23, 2012 7:25 PMReply

Okay, yeah, I guess I'd have to agree that The Tree of Life was the best movie of the year.
Terrance Malick | February 23, 2012 7:23 PMReply

Glad to see that all of you celebrities appreciated my film!
Madonna | February 23, 2012 7:23 PMReply

Okay, I guess that it's true that The Tree of Life was the best.
Madonna | February 23, 2012 7:22 PMReply

Shut up, Lady Gaga!
Lady Gaga | February 23, 2012 7:22 PMReply

The Tree of Life should win.
Ke$ha | February 23, 2012 7:21 PMReply

Tree of Life all the way!
Ron Paul | February 23, 2012 7:21 PMReply

The Tree of Life was one of the best movies that I've ever seen!
Mitt Romney | February 23, 2012 7:20 PMReply

Yup, The Tree of Life was the best.
George Bush | February 23, 2012 7:19 PMReply

I completely agree with you, Barack.
Barack Obama | February 23, 2012 7:18 PMReply

I would have to agree that The Tree of Life is the best. I'm Barack Obama, and I approve this message.
ROGER EBERT | February 23, 2012 7:17 PMReply

Thanks Nick, I'm glad to see that you share my taste in movies.
Nick | February 23, 2012 7:15 PMReply

OH MY GOD, ROGER EBERT WROTE ON THIS PAGE!!! I'M A BIG FAN!!! AND I TOTALLY AGREE THAT THE TREE OF LIFE IS THE BEST!!!
Roger Ebert | February 23, 2012 7:14 PMReply

I believe that the two best films are clearly The Artist and The Tree of Life, and that The Tree of Life is slightly better than The Artist.
pc | February 23, 2012 8:43 AMReply

My prediction: http://thecorner33.blogspot.com/
Paul Mcdonald | February 22, 2012 10:27 PMReply

My favorite movie of the year was Beginners but as that was not nominated ( along with Drive and Shame) then the award should got to the Artist with Hugo as the runner up.
Chris O | February 22, 2012 11:48 AMReply

The Artist should win, if it dosent it should be the desendents, not the Help, i thought the help was good but ive never been a fan of raceist movies
Chris | February 22, 2012 1:04 AMReply

If it hasn't already been said the Tree of Life was pretentious poop. Color symbolism and the ever flowing river of change. We get it.
Kinga Revai | February 21, 2012 2:33 PMReply

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE !!! DEFINITELY... did not like Hugo... was bored while watching The Descendants... The Tree of Life - not the best movie, maybe the best directing... oh, and I hated Moneyball :S:S:S:S
Altair | February 21, 2012 2:22 AMReply

War Horse has everything I want to see in a movie. It kept me glued to the screen for all 2 plus hours. Very moving and with a story line only Spielberg could translate to the screen. NO comparison with any other of the movies it's up against. I can't wait to watch it again.
Mike | February 26, 2012 1:54 PM

I agree that War Horse should be the winner for Best Picture. Excellent movie!!!
marilyn | February 21, 2012 2:18 AMReply

the best picture of the year is Shame followed by Drive.
e crickard | February 20, 2012 5:28 PMReply

Who the nominees should have been:

THE ARTIST *(WINNER)

BRIDESMAIDS

THE DESCENDANTS

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2

THE HELP

HUGO

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

MONEYBALL

WAR HORSE
syeed aleem shah | February 20, 2012 4:09 PMReply

the final opinion of mine about the year 2011 in hollywood is following:

Every one has choice and opinion and according to me top movies of 2011 are the following: 1- The War Horse.......2- "Hugo" & "MoneyBall"........3- "Mission Impossible 4 (the ghost protocaol)................4- The Artist....... 5- "The Tree OF Life" & "The Ides OF march" .......... Movies like "the desecndansts", "midnight in paris", "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" , "The Help", "the iron lady", "deathly holows PART.2", "rise of the planet of the apes" and "albert nobbs" are also very good movies,,,, some other good movies are following: (cowboys and alliens) (transformers darken of the moon) (paranormal activity 3) (tinker tailor soldier spy) (Bridesmaids) (My Week With Marilyn Jonah Hill) (Warrior) (Beginners) (The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo) (A Better Life) (We Need To Talk About Kevin) etc..........

In my opinion the best in hollywood of the year 2011 are as following: Best Picture: "The War Horse" (after this "Moneyball" & "Hugo"). Best Direction: "The War Horse" & "The Artist". Best Actor in Leading Role: "Brad Pitt" from MoneyBall. Best Actress in Leading Role: "Viola Davis" from The Help. Best Supporting Actor: "Max Von Sydow" from Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Best Supporting Actress: "Melissa McCarthy" from Bridesmaids & "Janet McTeer" from Albert Nobbs..........
syed aleem shah | February 20, 2012 10:19 AMReply

Every one has choice and opinion and according to me top movies of 2011 are the following:

1- The War Horse.......2- "Hugo" & "MoneyBall"........3- The Ides OF march.......4- The Artist....... 5- The Tree OF Life.......

Movies like "the desecndansts", "midnight in paris", "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" ,
"The Help", "the iron lady", "deathly holows PART.2", "rise of the planet of the apes" and "albert nobbs" are also very good movies,,,,

some other good movies are following:
(cowboys and alliens) (transformers darken of the moon) (paranormal activity 3) (tinker tailor soldier spy) (Bridesmaids) (My Week With Marilyn Jonah Hill) (Warrior) (Beginners) (The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo) (A Better Life) (We Need To Talk About Kevin) etc.......
syed aleem shah | February 20, 2012 10:05 AMReply

in my opinion the best in hollywood of the year 2011 are as following:

Best Picture: "The War Horse" (after this "Moneyball" & "Hugo").

Best Direction: "The War Horse" & "The Artist".

Best Actor in Leading Role: "Brad Pitt" from MoneyBall.

Best Actress in Leading Role: "Viola Davis" from The Help.

Best Supporting Actor: "Max Von Sydow" from Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

Best Supporting Actress: "Melissa McCarthy" from Bridesmaids & "Janet McTeer" from Albert Nobbs
Tara | February 19, 2012 9:45 PMReply

If The Help wins.... .. I will be so upset. Definitely a possible spoiler, though.
Drew | February 19, 2012 8:28 PMReply

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was PHENOMONAL!!!
Kinga RÃ©vai | February 21, 2012 2:27 PM

dont listen to anyone !!! EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE is the best movie among the nominated ones
Marilyn | February 21, 2012 2:17 AM

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was phenomenal? you've got to be kidding. no way should it have even been nominated for best picture.
Robert | February 19, 2012 8:14 PMReply

HUGO SHOULD WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Walt | February 25, 2012 2:46 PM

Marilyn is wrong.
Kinga RÃÂ©vai is right.
EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE is the Best Film of the Year.
syed aleem shah | February 20, 2012 4:17 PM

i also like hugo,,,, this is very very good movie,,,,, the war horse is my best movie in 2011,,,, but hugo and moneyball are also very very excellent movies.
Tyler | February 19, 2012 12:02 AMReply

The Muppets are going to pull in and steal the show! That, or Harry Potter. Those to films were excellent!
WRONG | February 19, 2012 12:05 PM

We can agree on the Muppets, but Harry Potter? Really? Did you just get out of middle school?
terry | February 18, 2012 5:21 PMReply

TREE OF LIFE is my winner
koen | February 18, 2012 4:05 PMReply

I think that the surprisingly winner of the evening will be......Moneyball
No | February 19, 2012 9:32 AM

That's wrong
sunny | February 18, 2012 2:48 PMReply

This is a correction of my reply to Chrisck's post (Feb.9, 2012), having mistaken Warrior for War Horse. The Spielberg film is a masterpiece and deserves to win the oscar for best picture.
Marta | February 18, 2012 4:13 AMReply

Are you kidding about Melancholia? That movie was absolutely one of the worst I have seen in a long time. I think "The Help" should win. Tree of Life is another one I thought was terrible.
luckytobeme | February 17, 2012 11:19 PMReply

the tree of life deserves to win
BOO | February 16, 2012 7:46 AMReply

No way The Help is the runner up. It has no director nom, and only one movie won without a director nom, and not even a screenplay nom! What the fuck movie has won without a screenplay nom? Hugo is the runner up, and The Descendants is next. Then maybe The Help.
rey | February 15, 2012 11:59 PMReply

Oscar prediction for Best Picture 2013, The Hobbit ;-)
rey | February 15, 2012 11:54 PMReply

the ugly true from the oscars : Oscar winner picture ; Chicago , Slumdog Millionaire ,The hurt locker and the King Speech if this year happen again The tree of Life will WIN
rey | February 15, 2012 11:11 PMReply

the tree of life better than panadol PM
eddiec | February 15, 2012 12:11 PMReply

Who the nominees should have been:
THE ARTIST*(WINNER)

BRIDESMAIDS

THE DESCENDANTS

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART 2

THE HELP

HUGO

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

MONEYBALL

WAR HORSE
Fuck NO | February 16, 2012 7:42 AM

I don't care if you love harry potter and bridesmaids, they should not get best picture noms. Tree of Life should and should win
eddie c | February 15, 2012 12:09 PMReply

Who the nominees should have been:

THE ARTIST*(WINNER)
BRIDESMAIDS
THE DESCENDANTS
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART 2
THE HELP
HUGO
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
MONEYBALL
WAR HORSE
dm | February 12, 2012 7:35 PMReply

Wouldn't it be nice if a good hearted little show like "Midnight in Paris" won?
joe | February 13, 2012 9:01 AM

no
Michael Davenport | February 10, 2012 9:50 PMReply

'The Artist' will probably and should win best picture. It's really refreshing to see a fun, clean movie, also a movie which shows the root of film making in an artistic and original way!
One Love | February 10, 2012 1:11 PMReply

No films this year were great or exceptional to be an Oscar winning picture. However, The help should receive best picture, if not then the descendants will probably win.
BOO | February 16, 2012 7:43 AM

Well then don't be surprised when The Artist wins.
chrisck | February 9, 2012 11:49 PMReply

honestly i didn't enjoy any of these movies more than "warrior" i think that film is totally under rated and deserved much more attention. If you haven't seen it, its understandable it didn't do well in the box office but give it a chance and you won't regret it. It deserves to be on this list. I love animals and all but "war horse" COME ONNNNN it was good but COME ONNN
syed aleem shah | February 20, 2012 10:26 AM

no doubt warrior is very good movie,,,,,,,, but "the war horse" , "the artist" , "hugo" , "moneyball" , "the tree of life" are very very good movies,,,,,,,, all these movies which i mentioned are clean movies and there is no kind of scene which can't be seen with family.........
sunny | February 18, 2012 2:24 PM

This should make you happy....I share your feelings . It's a masterpiece and deserves to win.
BOO | February 16, 2012 7:44 AM

Warrior wasn't that goos it's a fan movie and you are a fan
movienotesbook.blogspot.com | February 9, 2012 9:14 AMReply

The Artist seems to be the strongest. But, I still believe a surprise by The Help. We Need to Talk About Kevin should have been included in the nominees list instead of Midnight in Paris.
syed alem shah | February 20, 2012 10:31 AM

no doubt that "the artist" is very excellent movie and in this modern era a movie is made which shows us the old era,,,,,,,,,,, but "the war horse" , "hugo" , "moneyball" , "the tree of life" are very very good movies,,,,,,,, all these movies which i mentioned are clean movies and there is no kind of scene which can't be seen with family.........

I am really really happy that (the artist) (moneyball) (hugo) (the war horse) (the tree of life) which are in my top choice of 2011 hollywood movies,,,,,,,,,, but i am not satisfied 100% with academey awards jurry because they did not give nomination to "the ides of march"
Expert Picker | February 16, 2012 9:04 AM

Midnight in Paris is a great film that I would vote to win!
roopam | February 9, 2012 1:58 AMReply

trustrupam02@gmail.com
WHERES the we need to talk about kelvin and j edgar best of all
martin | February 8, 2012 8:17 PMReply

en mi personal opinion, la pelicula el artista se ganara la mayoria de las nominaciones, si no es que todas, esta muy bien realizada la direccion esta genial, las actuaciones bastante bien como les gustan a los criticos escenarios toda la pelicula two thumbs up!!!!!!!!!
Unknown | February 8, 2012 7:15 PMReply

In my personal opinion, Hugo should be the winner. I know it seems like a kids movie but its truly genius. Hugo was directed by one of the greatest directors every.....Martin Scorsese. For anyone who has seen his movies before, you will see how astounding his masterpieces are. Hugo is the winner in my mind.
syed aleem shah | February 20, 2012 10:35 AM

i am really very happy that you liked hugo ,,,,,,,,,, i liked
"the war horse" , "hugo" , "moneyball" and i think one of these movies should win oscar for the best picture............
Mark Bialek | February 16, 2012 2:40 PM

I agree. Hugo is a masterpiece. Scorsese even showed the proper way 3D should be done. When I saw Hugo, I left the theatre realizing how inferior the other films are. But I must admit, the Artist is another masterpiece that deserves recognition.
BOO | February 6, 2012 9:39 PMReply

No way The Help is the spoiler. It's either Hugo or The Descendants for spoiler
Steve | February 6, 2012 1:11 AMReply

Moneyball, an American pastime played by the rules of late capitalism. Lays bare our commodification of information, flex labor, and the ruthless drive for efficiency. Honest and timely, in spite of its sentimental veneer.
Ampal | February 4, 2012 4:50 PMReply

"The Tree of Life" should win - what a wonderful movie! A unique cinematic experience.
Movienotesbook.blogspot.com | February 9, 2012 9:18 AM

The Tree of Life was really a good movie. But, I think it is too heavy for a wide range of audience to appreciate. Though commendably made, you cannot deny that it made you sleepy if you've seen it.
Phil | February 6, 2012 9:21 PM

What a piece of huey. It blew large loogy chunks!!! Sorry I don't think so.
movie2187 | February 2, 2012 6:31 AMReply

I want the tree of life to win (NEVER WILL HAPPEN) The Artist is almost a sure thing, I have a suspicion most actors will vote for the help (largest voting members by the way)
Risaac | January 31, 2012 11:31 PMReply

Warhorse for the winÂ¡Â¡Â¡Â¡Â¡
syed aleem shah | February 20, 2012 10:38 AM

my best movie of 2011 is also " the war horse" this is classical movie.........

you and me both have number one hollywood choice of 2011 is "the war horse".........
Bogdan | January 31, 2012 1:14 PMReply

"The help" should win, but it probably won't. I definitely agree that "Melancholia" should have been in this category, along with "Shame" and "A dangerous method".
Kasper / Mude | January 30, 2012 2:11 PMReply

War Horse is the best movie ever!!!!!!
bright | January 28, 2012 4:11 AMReply

Iâm curious as to why the IN logo was so prominently shown at the beginning of Hugo, and Johnnyâs name was in the credits at the end as one of the producers, yet heâs never mentioned in any of these award nominationsâthe only two ever mentioned are Scorcese and King.
joe | January 28, 2012 4:11 AMReply

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences determined Friday that it will officially credit four producers, instead of three, for âThe Tree of Life.â so where is Johnny Depp for Hugo âs producer .his company âs logo is after GK .whatâs the hell. why they didnât say any thing? he should be nominated .
Dan | January 27, 2012 10:07 AMReply

We Need To Talk About Kevin should be nominated and should be winning, best film of 2011.
Ton | January 28, 2012 7:36 PM

It should be!!!! That's way the Oscar's are not important anymore!
Woody Allenson | January 27, 2012 6:44 AMReply

Midnight In Paris SHOULD win Best Picture...but won't. I liked The Artist but it's not that great nor as original. And whereas The Artist is a nostalgic film, Midnight In Paris has that bittersweetness, about feeling nostalgic but ultimately realising you got to live in the present, which is a lovely message. Midnight In Paris might as well be Allen's best film...because it got a heart, which 99.99% of films don't. If it doesn't win, then I hope The Descendants will - Alexander Payne will one day be recognized as one of the greatest directors ever!
LALA | January 26, 2012 7:58 PMReply

Personally, this year, there were no real Oscar sort of movies. Out of the nine nominees, I've watched six of them (I really need to see Hugo, War Horse and ELaIC), and so far, the only film that was more "Oscar" than others was Midnight in Paris. The Artist, which I thought was going to be brilliant, was BRILLIANT! However, it wasn't good enough to win Oscar. I enjoyed it more than Payne's 'Descendants', but I think that one was more 'Oscar friendly'. I don't personally enjoy the films that win, but I see why they won. I just don't see why The Artist would win (and to tell the truth, Descendants either). But of the whole year, the best film I have watched was A Separation. It hurts to say being an W. Allen fan, but it's true. It should have been nominated for this category (more than Melancholia).
Grant | January 26, 2012 2:20 PMReply

"The Descendants" should walk away with this award, by far the best film that came out this. "The Artist" was amazing and derserves the nominations but I think how "The Descendants" dealt with real life siuations and Payne's amazing abality of directing drama and comedy made the film seem even more real
Brent | January 25, 2012 5:11 PMReply

I would have liked to see Melancholia, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, and Drive here. These three movies were incredible. Much better than Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (which I'm not sure how it made it here) and Tree of Life (which is an artsy pretentious movie that had gorgeous cinematography but nothing else to offer). I would also take out War Horse.
mike | January 25, 2012 5:07 PMReply

Melancholia is the best movie of the year, and other years to come, anyway....
victor | January 24, 2012 11:22 PMReply

Haven't seen all the movies this year. Tree of Life is definitely a best movie in any year. The Help was extremely good, but not on the scale of the Malick film. Midnight in Paris was cute, but you've gotta be kidding. Saw the Swedish version of Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (trilogy)--good story if you like'em dark, but not a serious contender. Guess that's it...will have to see more films.