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by Peter Knegt
March 6, 2012 12:50 PM
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For Your Consideration: Yes, It's the 2013 Oscar Predictions

"The Great Gatsby"
With the Oscars now a week-old memory, the time has come for the final edition of this column (for this season). From the Toronto International Film Festival's unofficial awards season kickoff in September to last weekend's underwhelming ceremony, it's been six long months of speculation and anticipation and I'm ready to move on (as I'm sure many of you are as well).

While I'm sure I could rant about the predictability of nearly every major winner this year, is there really any point? The moment "The Artist" solidified its status as the surefire choice for best picture, my awards season was over.

There is one final column before letting awards talk rest in peace until September. It's been an annual tradition for me to take an ignorant stab at the following year well before there's any substantial evidence in its regard (Sundance aside, that is -- where this year it seems "The Surrogate" and to a lesser degree, "Beasts of the Southern Wild," are the safest bets for Oscar).

Surprisingly, it's not always a total crapshoot. While last year I might have been significantly off the mark with "J. Edgar," "A Dangerous Mind" and "Young Adult" making the best picture lineup, I did manage to properly predict 5 of the 9 nominations (7 if you count the alternates). Moreover, I managed to get seven of the 20 acting nominees, and properly predicted both Meryl Streep and Christopher Plummer's wins. So before this column lies dormant until the fall... let's give it a shot. No one's taking this too seriously. (Right?)

There's certainly plenty to choose from, as 2012 looks to be a diverse and potentially quite fulfilling year for cinema.

There's Baz Luhrmann's "The Great Gatsby," featuring Leonardo DiCaprio, Carey Mulligan and Tobey Maguire no less (though can we really trust Luhrmann after "Australia"?); Paul Thomas Anderson's hugely anticipated exploration of a Scientologist-esque religious leader in "The Master" is heading our way this year as well (which has the backing of The Weinstein Company, no less); Steven Spielberg is following up his disappointing one-two punch of "Tintin" and "War Horse" (which granted, still got him a best picture nomination) with likely-made-for-Oscar-voters "Lincoln" (featuring Daniel Day-Lewis in the seemingly locked-for-a-nomination title role); Bill Murray could be aiming for his first Oscar for another presidential biopic as FDR in "Hyde Park on Hudson"; Tom Hooper has assembled a ridiculously all-star cast of Hugh Jackman, Russell Crowe and Anne Hathaway for his "King's Speech" follow-up, "Les Miserables;" and of course there's Terrence Malick, who might have another film in the race (two years in a row!) with his as-yet-untitled Ben Affleck-Rachel McAdams romance (if it actually gets released).

"Brave"
Also potentially in the mix is Kathryn Bigelow's "Hurt Locker" follow-up "Zero Dark Thirty" (formerly "Kill Bin Laden"), which reteams her with "Locker" scribe Mark Boal; Ben Affleck is making his third directorial effort in "Argo," which follows two films that nabbed acting nominations but couldn't quite make the best picture cut; Pixar is hoping to make us all forget about "Cars 2" with "Brave," which could make like "Up" and "Toy Story 3" and make the big race; Christopher Nolan is completing his Batman trilogy with "The Dark Knight Rises," and perhaps guilt over snubbing its predecessor can help it find a place in the race; Quentin Tarantino has assembled the likes of Jamie Foxx and Leonardo DiCaprio for "Django Unchained," which notably could be more "Kill Bill" than "Inglorious Basterds" (read: less Oscar friendly); Viola Davis could pull a Colin Firth (winning the year after she just lost out) with inspirational drama "Won't Back Down" -- though the fact its directed by the guy who made "Beastly" doesn't help that suggestion; Ang Lee is releasing his adaptation of the hugely popular book "Life of Pi," which could finally get Lee a best picture win after that "Brokeback" snub; And there's always "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey," which seems hard to bet against after the Oscar domination that was "The Lord of the Rings" trilogy.

And that's just scratching the surface. With five to 10 potential best picture nominees, it's certain less expected films (or films we haven't even heard of yet -- there's no way anyone would have foreseen the domination of "The Artist" at this point last year) could make the cut.

So with that in mind, I present my major category 2013 Oscar predictions, one year in advance:

Best Picture
Anna Karenina
Argo
Brave
Gravity

Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

The Master
The Surrogate
Zero Dark Thirty

(Alternates: Django Unchained; The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Inside Llewyn Davis; The Great Gatsby; Beasts of the Southern Wild; The Dark Knight Rises; Untitled Terrence Malick Project; Hyde Park on Hudson)

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

(Alternates: Tom Hooper, Les Miserables; Ben Affleck, Argo; Joe Wright, Anna Karenina; Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained; Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight Rises)

"Hyde Park on Hudson"
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Surrogate
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

(Alternates: Denzel Washington, Flight; Terence Stamp, Song For Marion; Ryan Gosling, The Place Beyond The Pines;  Clint Eastwood, Trouble With The Curve; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby)

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Viola Davis, Won't Back Down
Helen Hunt, The Surrogate
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson

(Alternates: Marion Cotillard, Lowlife or Rust & Bone; Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby; Julianne Moore, What Maisie Knew; Kristin Wiig, Imogene)

Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper, The Place Beyond The Pines
Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
David Strathairn, Lincoln
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master


(Alternates: Robert DeNiro, The Silver Linings Playbook; William H. Macy, The Surrogate; Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln; John Goodman, Argo; Tom Hardy, The Dark Knight Rises)

"The Surrogate"

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
Annette Bening, Imogene
Sally Field, Lincoln
Vanessa Redgrave, Song For Marion

(Alternates: Kelly Macdonald, Anna Karenina; Laura Dern, The Master; Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis; Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Won't Back Down)

Best Original Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Brenda Chapman and Irene Mecchi, Brave
Ben Lewin, The Surrogate
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

(Alternates: Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron & Rodrigo Garcia, Gravity; Richard Nelson, Hyde Park on Hudson; Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom; Paul Andrew Williams, Song For Marion)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Tony Kushner, John Logan & Paul Webb, Lincoln
David Magee, Life of Pi
William Nicholson, Les Miserables
Tom Stoppard, Anna Karenina
Chris Terrio, Argo

(Alternates: David O. Russell, The Silver Linings Playbook; Fran Walsh, Phillippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro and Peter Jackson, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; David Cronenberg, Cosmopolis; Jose Rivera, On The Road; Carroll Cartwright and Nancy Doyne, What Maisie Knew)

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38 Comments

  • Big Tom | July 12, 2013 1:15 AMReply

    Wow Russel Crow The one major miss on this list otherwise amazing predicitons

  • Tony Montana | February 28, 2013 2:18 PMReply

    You predicted
    5 of the 9 nominees for best picturre (with two more of them (django and beats as alternatives)
    2 of the 5 of best director
    2 of the 5 best actor (with one more of them (denzel washington as alternative)
    1 of the 5 best actresses (with one more of them (quvenzhahe) as alternative)
    1 of the 5 best supporting actors (2 more as alternatives (deniro and jones))
    2 of the best 5 supporting actreses
    3 of the best 5 original screenplays (1 more alternative (moonrise kingdom))
    3 of the best 5 adapted (1 more alternative (silver linings playbook))

    Not bad prediction at all

  • Keith Dodge | February 25, 2013 3:13 PMReply

    Scary how many eventual Oscar winners were on your list in March 2012- Argo for Best Picture, Ang Lee for director (and you foresaw the Affleck snub), Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor, Django for Best Supporting Actor (though, not the right actor), Django and Argo on the list for screenplay. Wow. This game is played literally all the time. If you want to win Best Picture 2015, you'll need to put out some feelers now.

  • Scott Hopkins | September 25, 2012 7:20 PMReply

    I've seen many lists like Indiewire's recently and all I can say is, none are to be taken seriously without the inclusion of multiple nominations for Les Miserables'. I'm convinced this is the one no one sees coming and is going to make a lot of noise come December, including a lock on Supporting Actress for Anne Hathaway.

  • randall gerber | September 9, 2012 5:50 PMReply

    the only male performances of the year to me are:joaquin phoenix,philip seymour hoffman,daniel day -lewis, hugh jackman and especially bill murray.

  • randall gerber | September 9, 2012 5:52 PM

    and bill murray will win!!!!!

  • Dale B. | August 21, 2012 3:30 AMReply

    I submit as best actress Rachel Weisz for "The Deep Blue Sea." She gave one of the most powerful performances I've ever seen, but since the film was released so early in the year it will probably be overlooked at Oscar time. A pity.

  • Roberto Costa | July 29, 2012 4:22 PMReply

    where is Cloud Atlas?! :O

  • Joel | June 25, 2012 5:50 PMReply

    I think moonrise kingdom has a chance at some kind of oscar recognition.

  • This Person | June 18, 2012 11:16 PMReply

    THE HUNGER GAMES should be nominated for something - Jennifer Lawrence as best actor (unlikely) or Abraham's Daughter as best original song?

  • LA | June 11, 2012 9:25 PMReply

    Lets not forget Judy Davis in The Eye Of The Storm.

  • babaganush | June 9, 2012 1:10 PMReply

    My predictions on the 85th Academy Award are...

    Best Picture:
    The Great Gatsby.
    Hyde Park On Hudson.
    Django Unchained
    Lincoln
    The Master
    Life Of Pi.
    The Hobbit
    Les Miserables

    Best Director:
    Steven Speilberg (Lincoln).
    Ang Lee (Life of Pi).
    Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master).
    Peter Jackson (The Hobbit).
    Tom Hooper (Les Miserables).

    Best Actor:
    Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln).
    Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master).
    Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson).
    Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables).
    Sean Penn (Gangster Squad).

    Best Actress:
    Sally Field (Lincoln).
    Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson).
    Helen Hunt (The Surrogate).
    Carey Mulligan (The Great Gatsby).
    Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina).

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained).
    Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Lincoln).
    Tom Hardy (The Dark Knight Rises).
    Tobey Maguire (The Great Gatsby).
    Joaquin Phoenix (The Master).

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Amy Adams (The Master).
    Anne Hathaway (The Dark Knight Rises).
    Samantha Barks (Les Miserables).
    Kelly Macdonald (Anna Karenina).
    Vanessa Redgrave (Song For Marion).

    My winners? - Lincoln, Speilberg, Day-Lewis or Penn, Field, DiCaprio, Hathaway.

  • mary | June 4, 2012 7:07 AMReply

    Tom Courtenay is a fantastic performance in Quartet and with Maggie Smith are a great couple of old musicists....
    My list list best supporting actor is:
    TOM COURTENAY as Quartet (THE WINNER)
    Leonardo DiCaprio as Django Unchained
    John Goodhman as Argo
    Joseph Gordon Levitt as Lincoln
    David Strathairn as Lincoln

    BEST SUPPORTIN ACTRESS:
    Amy Adams, The Master
    Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    Maggie Smith, Quartet
    Sally Field, Lincoln
    Vanessa Redgrave, Song For Marion

    BEST LEADING ACTOR:
    Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln,
    Jean Louise Trintignant,Mon Amour
    Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
    Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
    Ryan Gosling Ganster's Squad

  • joe | June 1, 2012 6:47 AMReply

    Best Picture
    Anna Karenina
    Argo
    Prometheus
    Gravity
    Les Miserables
    The Company you keep
    Lincoln
    The Master
    The Surrogate
    Zero Dark Thirty



    Best Director
    Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
    Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
    Tom Hooper, Les Miserables;
    Ridley Scott, Prometheus
    Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

    Best Actor
    Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Jean Louise Trintignant,Mon Amour
    Robert Redfort,The Company you Keep
    Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
    Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson




    Best Actress
    Naomi Rapaci, Prometheus
    Maggie Smith ,Th Quartet
    Helen Hunt, The Surrogate
    Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
    Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson


    Best Supporting Actor
    Sean Penn, Ganster's Squad
    Tom Courtenay,Quartet
    Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
    John Goodhman,Argo
    Ryan Gosling,The Ganster's Squad






    Best Supporting Actress
    Amy Adams, The Master
    Anne Hathway, Les Miserables
    Annette Bening, Imogene
    Julie Christie, The Company you Keep
    Vanessa Redgrave, Song For Marion



    Best Original Screenplay
    Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
    Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
    Brenda Chapman and Irene Mecchi, Brave
    Ben Lewin, The Surrogate
    Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained


    (Alternates: Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron & Rodrigo Garcia, Gravity; Richard Nelson, Hyde Park on Hudson; Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom; Paul Andrew Williams, Song For Marion)

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Tony Kushner, John Logan & Paul Webb, Lincoln
    David Magee, Life of Pi
    William Nicholson, Les Miserables
    Tom Stoppard, Anna Karenina
    Chris Terrio, Argo

  • Proman | May 15, 2012 5:46 PMReply

    "Steven Spielberg is following up his disappointing one-two punch of "Tintin" and "War Horse" (which granted, still got him a best picture nomination)"

    Yeah, you know, little things like a "Best Pucture" nomination. And a PGA win. And a Golden Globe. A BAFTA nod. A whole load of other awards and nominations.

    Dissapointing by whose standards? Some bizzare oscarcentric standards. Give me a break.

    These were amazign movies, too, and that is what matters the most.

  • David | September 26, 2012 5:49 PM

    hahahahhaha best comment ever

  • robfuzz | May 9, 2012 1:18 PMReply

    Longshot here, but the buzz for Barbra Streisand's performance in The Guilt Trip is strong. It's more of a dramedy and she supposedly acts her ass off.

  • thomas levesque | April 23, 2012 3:08 PMReply

    i also think Whitney Houston will probley get an oscar nom for her work in Sparkle.

  • Eduardo | April 21, 2012 3:51 PMReply

    Daniel Day-Lewis already won it. Every year for either best actor or best actress they win it for a biopic.

  • JDT | March 27, 2012 8:07 PMReply

    Two actresses I would really love to see nominated: Melanie Lynskey for Best Actress (Hello I Must Be Going) and Holliday Grainger for Best Supporting Actress (Great Expectations).

  • JDT | March 11, 2012 5:08 PMReply

    Here are my predictions (plus a few preferences) for the 85th Academy Awards' nominations for the first six categories, in order of importance:

    Best Picture:
    On The Road
    Lincoln
    Anna Karenina
    The Great Gatsby
    Lay The Favourite
    The Master
    Great Expectations
    The Master
    Les Miserables
    Great Hope Springs
    Hello I Must Be Going

    Best Director:
    Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
    Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
    Joe Wright (Anna Karenina)
    Baz Lurhman (The Great Gatsby)
    Walter Salles (On The Road)
    Mike Newell (Great Expectations)

    Best Actor:
    Leonardo Di Caprio (The Great Gatsby)
    Jude Law (Anna Karenina)
    Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
    Sam Riley (On The Road)
    Ralph Fiennes (Great Expectations)
    Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

    Best Actress:
    Carey Mulligan (The Great Gatsby)
    Amy Adams (The Master)
    Melanie Lynskey (Hello I Must Be Going)
    Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
    Amanda Seyfried (Les Miserables)
    Helena Bonham Carter (Great Expectations)

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
    Tobey Maguire (The Great Gatsby)
    Aaron Johnson (Anna Karenina)
    David Strathairn (Lincoln)
    Russell Crowe (Les Miserables)
    Jeremy Irvine (Great Expectations)

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Isla Fisher (The Great Gatsby)
    Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
    Kelly MacDonald (Anna Karenina)
    Holliday Grainger (Great Expectations)
    Marin Ireland (Great Hope Springs)
    Blythe Danner (Hello I Must Be Going)

  • joe | March 7, 2012 11:07 PMReply

    Julianne Moore's character is supporting in What Maisie Knew, she has zero chance.

  • ska-triumph | March 7, 2012 5:34 PMReply

    Wow those prospective actor wins are certainly, wonderfully AMERICAN and have an "about-damn-time!" feel to them, don't they?

  • Joe H | March 7, 2012 8:21 PM

    Are you being sarcastic? Because most of the Best Actor predictions at this point are FOREIGN. Check the list again.

  • prakshid | March 7, 2012 10:16 AMReply

    Best Director:-
    Paul Thomas Anderson- The Master
    Kathryn Bigelow- Zero Dark Thirty
    Peter Jackson-The Hobbit
    Steven Spielberg- Lincoln
    Quentin Tarantino- Django Unchained

  • Prakshid | March 7, 2012 10:12 AMReply

    Best Picture:-
    The Hobbit
    Django Unchained
    The Great Gatsby
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    The Master
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Inside Llewyn Davis
    The Dark Knight Rises
    Argo

    Best Actor:-
    Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Oscar Isaac-Inside Llewyn Davis
    Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    Clint Eastwood-Taking On The Curve
    Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

    Best Actress:-
    Carey Mulligan-The Great Gatsby
    Amy Adams-Taking On The Curve
    Meryl Streep-Great Hope Springs
    Keira Knightley- Anna Karenina
    Laura Linney-Hyde Park on Hudson

  • michab0a | March 7, 2012 8:47 AMReply

    I'd also include Chiwetel Ejiofor for a best actor nom for ' 12 years a slave,' which will also star both Brad Pitt and Michael Fassbender; with Steve Mcqueen directing.

  • Peter Knegt | March 8, 2012 9:19 AM

    I was going to do just that, but it seems like the film won't be out until 2013.

  • 1234 | March 7, 2012 3:44 AMReply

    I love how this article completely ignores Mary Elizabeth Winstead for Smashed , not even under the alternates section, oh she will be nominated, you just wait see.

  • TK | March 6, 2012 11:12 PMReply

    Have you see The Surrogate? Best film of the year. Ben Lewin has easily secured a best director nomination and you don't even have him as an alternate! Psh!

  • MB | March 6, 2012 5:38 PMReply

    Sucks that the oscars are that predictable.

  • CN | March 6, 2012 4:46 PMReply

    Dark Horse Prediction for Best Actor (as a longshot): Dwight Henry in "Beasts of the Southern Wild".

    I also have a feeling that Quvenzhane Wallis could turn up as the Gabourey Sidibe of the 2013 Oscars. Just a wild guess (no pun intended). The buzz for her role as "Hushpuppy" is VERY strong.

    We'll also have to see how Oliver Stone's "Savages" turns out.

  • CN | March 6, 2012 4:48 PM

    That is Dwight Henry as a Dark Horse Best Actor NOMINEE, not winner. I think you're spot on about Hawkes taking the Oscar home next season.

  • ballet | March 6, 2012 3:57 PMReply

    are you seriously talking about 2013 Oscars? I mean seriously? Have you nothing else to write about?

  • mike | March 6, 2012 9:34 PM

    are you seriously making a big deal out of this? I mean seriously? have you nothing else to comment about?

  • Joe Hughey | March 6, 2012 3:43 PMReply

    Where the heck is the Dark Knight Rises and Prometheus? And I find it astounding that you don't include The Hobbit in the Best Picture nominees, except as an alternate.

    But whatever. The year has barely started. We'll see what happens.

  • James T | March 6, 2012 2:34 PMReply

    I just don't see Gravity as an actor's movie and even if it was... Bullock already has more than the Academy think they owe her.

    If they like Viola's vehicle it's pretty likely that she'll win. Keira, I think, is the frontrunner right now. Which doesn't mean much, of course.

    Did you forget Hathaway in Les Miz or do you think she doesn't stand a considerable chance?

    And I sooo want Kushner to win an Oscar. OK, I want him to deserve it, too. :p

    I always enjoy early predictions. Thanks once again, Peter!

  • Wendy | March 6, 2012 1:52 PMReply

    Not confident about Rachel McAdams' performance in the Terrence Malick film anymore?