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by Peter Knegt
February 19, 2013 11:23 AM
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2013 Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

"Argo."
Indiewire will provide regular updates of our predictions for the 85th Academy Awards through February 24th, when the winners are announced.

Here's our take on best adapted screenplay, which has turned into a genuine a three-way showdown between Tony Kushner, Chris Terrio and David O. Russell. Kushner seemed like the big favorite for a while, but "Silver Linings" won the BAFTA and "Argo" won the USC Scripter and the WGA Award and has all the momentum... I held on to a "Lincoln" prediction as long as I could but now I'm going for "Argo."

Nominees and predictions below. Check out all predictions in all the categories here, and this list of all the Oscar-nominated films available ON DEMAND right now.

The nominees:
"Argo" Screenplay by Chris Terrio
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
"Life of Pi" Screenplay by David Magee
"Lincoln" Screenplay by Tony Kushner
"Silver Linings Playbook" Screenplay by David O. Russell

Will win: "Argo"
Could win: "Silver Linings Playbook" or "Lincoln"
Should win: "Lincoln"

Check out all predictions in all the categories here.

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69 Comments

  • monkeypox6 | April 15, 2013 8:14 PMReply

    How I think it should have been:

    1. Chris Terrio, "Argo"*(WINNER)
    2. David Magee, "Life of Pi"
    3. Tony Kushner, "Lincoln"*(Runner-up)
    4. Stephen Chbosky, "The Perks of Being a Wallflower"
    5. David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook"

  • Camilo Caballero | January 31, 2013 11:15 PMReply

    As much as I loved Lincoln, this award should go to Silver Linings Playbook. Lincoln will most likely get Picture, Director, Actor and possibly Supporting Actor, so SLP should get at least this award. The screenplay was very clever, the characters were fun and interesting, the dialogue was snappy and smart, and probably one of the most original concepts in this category. Argo could win it as well, as probably if it doesn't win Best Picture it won't win anything but a few technical awards, so they might give them this instead

  • fuck you | January 10, 2013 5:13 PMReply

    you think Lincoln seriously deserves it over Silver Linings Playbook and Argo? ARE YOU FUCKING HIGH

  • E.T. | January 10, 2013 4:57 PMReply

    Considering Anna Karenina isn't nominated, maybe you should change the picture in this article

  • Rael | January 10, 2013 4:36 AMReply

    Silver Linings Playbook, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Lincoln, Life of Pi, The Beasts of Southern Wild are my favorites...probably Argo, The Sessions, Anna Karenina or Les Miserables for the spoilers.

    It is a toss-up between Stephen or David here...I haven't watch SLP, so I would go for TPOBW.

  • ello | January 9, 2013 7:13 PMReply

    The Hobbit is a book (and a very good one at that). Not even on the list. Wow.

  • Martin | January 8, 2013 10:22 AMReply

    Check my predictions on the screenplays at http://www.mondoglam.com/2013/01/predicciones-al-oscar-2013-dos-dias_8.html

  • James K | January 6, 2013 4:16 PMReply

    Lincoln's got this. Silver Lining Playbooks and Argo are in as well. Not very enthusiastic about this category, never have been. I think the last 2 will probably be The Perks of Being a Wallflower and Life of Pi. Beasts of the Southern Wild has a shot as well. Les Miserable's not getting a nomination and neither is On the Road or Skyfall. The Sessions has a longshot.

  • Jeremy | January 6, 2013 6:07 AMReply

    This pisses me off, Argo! Second! Thats bullshit! The script had no charecter development, didn't really move anywhere and didn't build tension until the last scene which didn't add to much. When I write a screenplay I try to make even the blandest charecters interesting and you would be one lying motherfucker if you said the charecters in this weren't bland because they were amoung the blandest ever written on screen. This pisses me off, pisses me right the fuck off! Argo, most over rated movie of 2013, Argo fuck yourself!

  • Ross | January 5, 2013 3:54 PMReply

    Skyfall was an original screenplay. herp derp.

  • Zac | January 6, 2013 5:33 PM

    It's a sequel. Herp derp.

  • John | January 3, 2013 10:21 PMReply

    A bit bummed that The Avengers wasn't considered to be a long shot over The Dark Knight Rises

  • lol | January 4, 2013 4:56 PM

    lol

  • Oscar | January 2, 2013 6:04 AMReply

    This has been a good year for screen plays. Original and adapted. I was so looking forward to Cloud Atlas. I thought it might be the best film to come out in the last 50 years. Then I went and saw it. So bummed! The only film more confused with itself was Cosmopolis. To be worthy of a nomination the film has to work with an audience. Heaven forbid it makes the studio some money so they can justify hiring the writer again. Snobs always skip right past the successful films of the year even though the population shows up in force. Look at the top 100 grossing films of the year again. There are some gems in there. Skyfall, The Hobbit, Brave, Ted, The Lorax, Wreck it Ralph, Argo, Rise of the Guardians, Life of Pi, Lawless and yes, The Avengers! If you think writing The Avengers screenplay was easy. Then why didn't you do it? That film was a smash and sent everybody out of the theaters smiling. It was better than all the Hulks, Thor's and X-Men crap that you're used to. They made it look easy. We were adapted whether we wanted to be or not. Of course there is always the "I hated it because it was so successful kid". Jealously is so attractive.

  • JenniferWest | December 29, 2012 9:37 PMReply

    Argo !

  • JenniferWest | December 29, 2012 9:37 PMReply

    Argo !

  • George | December 26, 2012 9:30 AMReply

    How come no ones mentioned the great gatsby? Surely that will be one to watch

  • John | December 29, 2012 12:35 AM

    Because the film is in 2013

  • BOO | December 19, 2012 11:09 AMReply

    I hope it goes to Beasts. Even though Perks was really good I don't think they will nominate it.

  • Shawn | December 15, 2012 12:35 AMReply

    What about Atlas Cloud? Why isn't it even there in the Adapted screenplay that based on a book?

  • Shawn | December 15, 2012 12:37 AM

    I mean, Cloud Atlas.

  • name | December 14, 2012 7:13 PMReply

    Please, everyone, stop naming movies in categories they don't even belong in! This is ADAPTED screenplay!

  • Ryan | December 11, 2012 3:12 PMReply

    I feel like all these predictions were changed today just to almost identically mirror the Critic's Choice nominees. I doubt the Academy will pick the same as them.

  • Tony | December 5, 2012 5:24 PMReply

    It will be Kushner for "Lincoln"

  • BOO | December 5, 2012 7:55 PM

    Calm down. Lincoln will probably get this and actor. Maybe a technical award or something, but just stop saying it will win everything it's nominated for because you loved it.

  • James | December 5, 2012 12:28 PMReply

    Cloud Atlas Cloud Atlas Cloud Atlas. It deserves to be on many lists, but especially adapted screenplay.

  • Bob | December 3, 2012 6:43 PMReply

    The Hobbit should be somewhere on here. And I heard The Perks of being a Wallflower was great to; so that should be somewhere on here as well.

  • Ivana | December 3, 2012 11:47 AMReply

    I'm a fan of Nolan's Batman trilogy, but no way in hell does The Dark Knight Rises deserve to even be considered for a nomination for the script. If they really want to give it a nomination to acknowledge Nolan's overall work, please let it be anything else but the script or best movie. I would hate it if they nominated TDKR just to make up for ignoring The Dark Knight, which really should have been nominated. TDKR is much weaker than Batman Begins and The Dark Knight, and the script is the reason why.

  • Bob | December 3, 2012 6:47 PM

    Yea, TDKR won't be getting any recognition at the awards(except maybe things like visual effects, editing and stuff). I'm a Nolan fan and I know that. Though TDK...now that should have been nominated and should have won Best Picture and Director. Gets me so upset every time I remember it didn't.

  • Luna | November 29, 2012 11:04 PMReply

    TWO WORDS: CLOUD ATLAS

  • ScentiMental | January 4, 2013 4:33 AM

    I'm sooo with you on this one. Cloud Atlas is one of the best movies in 2012...but I guess Academy will find it (as many viewers already have, unfortunately) political and too leftist (?!?).

  • Anonymous | December 2, 2012 9:53 PM

    TWO WORDS: I AGREE

  • BOO | November 29, 2012 9:17 PMReply

    No Amour anymore?

  • Cosmo | November 29, 2012 6:38 PMReply

    Really - What is with Cosmopolis? The adaption was incredible. You might not like the movie or but then you probably won't like the book either. Forgetting an amazing director - what a shame!

  • BOo | November 26, 2012 12:39 PMReply

    Fuck Lincoln I want something else to win

  • Kansas | December 12, 2012 7:05 PM

    Bahaha someone is frustrated with Lincoln! And I feel your pain. I liked Lincoln but I don't want it to take away from some other great films that should get noms or wins. I would love to see Silver Linings or Life of Pi do well here. Or (as an underdog for a win) Perks of Being a Wallflower.

  • BOO | November 29, 2012 9:18 PM

    Not that I didn't like it. Actually that was too harsh. But I would prefer that Argo or Silver Linings wins. Though I don't doubt Lincoln's chances.

  • zane | November 27, 2012 3:35 PM

    Lincoln was amazing and it might me nominated so be good to it.

  • kyle | November 25, 2012 2:37 PMReply

    The comments on nearly all of these Oscar predictions posts would seem to indicate that a great deal of Indiewire readers (at least the ones moved enough to leave a comment) are delusional about their expectations. e.g. Thinking Cloud Atlas, Prometheus, or TDKR will win Best Picture.

  • Film Fan | December 10, 2012 8:53 PM

    I totally agree.

  • donnaaronna | November 23, 2012 8:31 PMReply

    What about Cosmopolos? That won't be everyone's cup of tea, but I think Cronenberg did an amazing job with that screenplay.

  • LoveforBuzz | November 14, 2012 4:57 PMReply

    Cloud Atlas? Yeah, it was phenomenal. And Perks better get something.

  • juan | November 13, 2012 2:50 PMReply

    Perks of being a Wallflower was my favorite movie of the year and it deserves the nomination. It translated the book perfectly, keeping all the emotion and realness of the book

  • emvan | October 27, 2012 1:18 PMReply

    The Hobbit, as anyone putting a list like this together ought to know, is a heck of a lot tougher nut to crack than Lord of the Rings was. Not having it in the top 15 goes beyond comedy to self-parody. Really.

  • george | October 29, 2012 5:45 PM

    Don't worry. The Hobbit will be awesome, but this website refuses to see it (mostly because they only circulate the same 5 or 6 movies throughout these predictions)

  • george | October 24, 2012 4:14 PMReply

    ADAPTED NOT ORIGINAL DUMMIES! Look up the difference between the two. Then try and tell me The Hobbit won't win.

  • Zane | October 24, 2012 1:26 AMReply

    The Dark Knight Rises should be a runner up and Argo those two attest

  • Duane | October 16, 2012 12:17 AMReply

    Why would This is Forty be Best AdaptedScreenplay?

  • Logic | October 17, 2012 12:25 PM

    It is based on characters previously created in Knocked Up. Toy Story 2 and 3 were both in this category.

  • NDog | October 10, 2012 7:33 PMReply

    After seeing Perks of Being a Wallflower I think Chbosky deserves at least an oscar nomination, Lincoln will probably scoop it but a nod from the academy would be deserving.

  • Ignatius J Reilly | October 4, 2012 11:14 AMReply

    I think Kushner now has sole writing credit for Lincoln.

  • mass | October 2, 2012 10:41 AMReply

    ARGO is obviously going to win this award.

  • DUANE | September 26, 2012 3:56 PMReply

    JOSS WHEDON - THE AVENGERS

  • zane | November 27, 2012 3:38 PM

    First the Avengers was really good but not oscar great.
    Second there are no such things as razzie's, there face so don't listen to idiots.

  • zane | November 27, 2012 3:38 PM

    First the Avengers was really good but not oscar great.
    Second there are no such things as razzie's, there face so don't listen to idiots.

  • Joseph Chastain | November 11, 2012 1:54 PM

    Really? Avengers deserves a Razzie nomination.

  • Poiwl | September 26, 2012 6:47 AMReply

    Is something wrong with your brain? Why is Cloud Atlas not even in the list??????

  • abhay | September 7, 2012 1:55 AMReply

    fuck you...this is shit..CLOUD ATLAS WILL WIN -BEST PICTURE ..BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY :) HAVE A NICE DAY

  • Travis | September 7, 2012 1:22 AMReply

    My favorite part is how the original Sessions script is listed as adapted!

  • BOO | November 24, 2012 11:26 AM

    It's based on the article by MArk O'Brian

  • mary | August 17, 2012 5:53 AMReply

    How can you bring it out? what is it based on? Because I think there's some incohernces in all those predictions

  • JJ | August 16, 2012 10:12 PMReply

    No Cloud Atlas?

  • Pharmach Power | August 14, 2012 6:45 AMReply

    The Dark Knight Rises should never be in the spoilers list. atleast it will bag 2 awards, my hopes are for best adapted screenplay and best editing.

  • Zame | November 27, 2012 3:42 PM

    The Dark Knight Rises will get more than two awards, At most ten.

  • Arguain | August 13, 2012 4:38 PMReply

    The idea that Lincoln, written by a Pulitzer Prize winning author, who called it his best work ever is second to anyone in that list is an absolute joke.

  • Ignatius J Reilly | September 11, 2012 12:58 PM

    I agree, though I am biased as a Tony Kushner fan. But Tom Stoppard?! Why isn't he higher on the list. I don't think Indiewire has already forgotten that he won for Shakespeare In Love.

  • aaa | August 13, 2012 8:54 AMReply

    No Whedon?

  • Jack | July 18, 2012 3:15 PMReply

    ADAPTED:
    1. Beasts of Southern Wild
    2. Lincoln
    3. Les Miserables
    4. Argo
    5. Silver Lining Playbook

  • tanman13 | July 12, 2012 9:55 PMReply

    I would normally understand no mention of The Dark Knight Rises... but not with the inclusion of The Avengers.