The short film races are always extremely tough to call -- especially now that the entire Academy membership is eligible to vote for them. This race seems to be between two films: Disney character animator Minkyu Lee's "Adam and Dog" (which is made from money he saved while working at Disney, though Disney had no involvement) and actual Disney production, John Kahr's "Paperman." The latter won the Annie and will probably win here, but both are great and either could win.
"Adam and Dog"
"Head Over Heels"
"Maggie Simpson in the Longest Daycare"
Will win: "Paperman"
Could win: "Adam and Dog"
Should win: "Paperman" or "Adam and Dog" would be fine by me.
Check out all predictions in all the categories here.