Sure, Malik Bendjelloul's "Searching For Sugar Man" feels like the frontrunner here. It's the only real box office hit, and is coming off wins with the PGA, WGA and DGA. But this category is notoriously hard to predict, and this year for the first time all Academy members were sent screeners of all the docs and can all vote in the category, which entirely changes voting patterns and gives this category no precedent. So while "Sugar Man" has the momentum, it's easy to see Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi's "5 Broken Cameras" or Dror Moreh's "The Gatekeepers" or David France's "How To Survive a Plague" or Kirby Dick's "The Invisible War" pushing through. For one, they all feel like much more "important" documentaries, which may or may not help them (last year's winner -- high school football doc "Undefeated" -- did not have that sense about it compared to its fellow nominees). Our guess, though -- and pretty much everyone else's -- is that "Sugar Man" wins in the end.
Nominees and predictions below. Check out all predictions in all the categories here, and this list of all the Oscar-nominated films available ON DEMAND right now.
"5 Broken Cameras"
"How to Survive a Plague"
"The Invisible War"
"Searching for Sugar Man"
Will win: "Searching For Sugar Man"
Could win: "The Gatekeepers"
Should win: They're all great.
Check out all predictions in all the categories here.