Oddly the only one of the three short categories NOT open to voting by the entire Academy membership, the documentary short Oscar race is between 5 generally dire films -- topics include homelessness, aging and cancer. The standouts to me were Sean Fine and Andrea Nix's "Inocente" and Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan's "Mondays at Racine" (the former about a homeless immigrant, the latter about women with cancer who meet a beauty salon in Long Island). Whether that means either could win is tricky (this category is wildly unpredictable), but I'll wager its between the two, with the extraordinarily emotional "Mondays" having the edge.
"Mondays at Racine"
Will win: "Mondays at Racine"
Could win: "Inocente"
Should win: "Mondays at Racine"
Check out all predictions in all the categories here.