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by Peter Knegt
February 17, 2013 5:09 PM
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2013 Oscar Predictions: Best Foreign Language Film

"A Royal Affair"
Indiewire will provide regular updates of our predictions for the 85th Academy Awards through February 24th, when the winners are announced.

It's perhaps a silly proposition to ever assume anything about the category where "Departures" beat "The Class" and "The Secret In Their Eyes" beat "The White Ribbon," but come on: How could they not give this to Michael Haneke's "Amour." He's a legend, he's never won (and was aforementionedly snubbed for "Ribbon"), and the film got 5 nominations including best picture, best director, best actress and best original screenplay. No foreign language film nominated for both in this category and for best picture has ever failed to win the former, so if there's no amour for "Amour" here, it will be a massive upset.

Nominees and predictions below. Check out all predictions in all the categories here, and this list of all the Oscar-nominated films available ON DEMAND right now.

The nominees:
"Amour" Austria
"Kon-Tiki" Norway
"No" Chile
"A Royal Affair" Denmark
"War Witch" Canada

Will win: "Amour"
Could win: "No"
Should win: "Amour"

Check out all predictions in all the categories here.

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109 Comments

  • monkeypox6 | April 15, 2013 8:22 PMReply

    How I think it should have been:

    1. "Amour" - Austria, Directed by: Michael Haneke*(WINNER)
    2. "The Intouchables" - France, Directed by: Olivier Nakache & Eric Toledano*(Runner-up)
    3. "No" - Chile, Directed by: Pablo Larrain
    4. "A Royal Affair" - Denmark, Directed by: Nikolaj Arcel
    5. "Rust and Bone" - France, Directed by: Jacques Audiard

  • Hannah | February 25, 2013 6:42 PMReply

    "when day breaks" and "The third Half" were my favorites.Too bad they didn't made the short list because both of them were truly emotional and excellent movies. Oh and that "Beyond the hills" movie-awful,can't understand how it made the January short-list.3 hours of nail biting and hair plucking for me. Couldn't stand the last 30 minutes,I just couldn't wait to get out of the cinema.If you ask me a really bad movie with no story to be followed.

  • GERARD KENNELLY | February 23, 2013 1:37 PMReply

    best foreign films i saw have been or are all being remade ...

    CARANCHO

    GIRL DRAGON TATTOO remade with rooney mara

    THE ORPHANAGE

    INSOMNIA remade with al pacino

    PROFUMO DI DONNA remade with al pacino

    NIKITA remade with bridget fonda

    PANS LABYRINTH

    HEADHUNTERS being remade with mark wahlberg

    UNTOUCHABLE being remade with colin firth

    BROTHERS remade with tobey maguire

  • Xavier | February 21, 2013 10:29 PMReply

    Oscars sometimes is unpredictable.. i dunno what wrong but some winners are undeserving.. i better rely on Frinzee for the people's pick about this

  • toni goethe | February 20, 2013 5:12 AMReply

    I love Amour, very good movie, wonderful acting, hope it will capture the oscar for best actress. Just watched war witch yesterday, very very good movie, just not sure if a brutal movie is something that the judges are keen on.

  • Pablo | February 19, 2013 6:54 PMReply

    Mi vote goes to Amour, Kon Tiki and A Royal Affair. I cross my fingers for those films, that truly deserves the award.

  • Bisu | February 17, 2013 8:15 PMReply

    "The Class" was actually a pretty bad movie... I don't understand why so many people like it.

  • Praxis | February 17, 2013 5:22 PMReply

    Well... all the movies mentioned are outstanding, but the discussion should stick to the movies that are already nominated. Amour is a great film with superb acting, but a little slow and the story is not very good. My vote goes hand s down to "No".. this movie is the equivalent of Argo, for the international movie lovers... amazing acting, great ambiance, original and above honest in its purest form... watch it, enjoy it and then agree with me that it should win :)

  • JD | February 2, 2013 11:22 AMReply

    Armour possibly has the most guaranteed chance of victory in this category in Oscar history. I mean, come on, it's nominated for Best Actress, Best Screenplay, Best Director, and BEST PICTURE!

  • Playsomeskynard | January 23, 2013 1:01 AMReply

    Its hard to believe this is not an Austrian website. Amour is NEVER going to win. The movie was soo painful to watch. Intouchables could have won last year & it will win this year. I have seen about 1/2 the nominated movies so far this year and Amour is at the bottom. People said the same thing about White Ribbon winning & I also put it at the bottom. Michael Haneke has a style that is just not uplifting in any way. I cant wait to watch other nations submissions, but after I read these threads I watch Amour & wish I would have not have.

  • JD | February 2, 2013 11:25 AM

    Whether you like it or not, Armour is definitely going to win. I haven't seen it, so I can't comment if it deserves to win, but with all of the other nominations it has, it will definitely win.

  • StickFiggas | January 17, 2013 8:11 PMReply

    even in FRINZEE, amour is on TOP!

  • GT•Bob | January 23, 2013 9:46 PM

    Amour's got a lot of fanboys! well i havent wtched it yet! Is it better than watching the Super Bowl XLVII? haha well i voted "A Royal Affair" on Frinzee !! 2nd spot on the poll! Anyway, Oscars will decided who deserves it but all of em could win.

  • Krystle | January 22, 2013 2:17 AM

    yeah i saw it at frinzee!! i do vote for amour

  • Sadie | January 12, 2013 6:08 PMReply

    I agree with Amour, but I don't think "any of them" could win. They're all good, true. But Amour's nominations in other key fields, including Best Picture, speaks loud and clear of how the Academy feels about it. The rest should just be happy to be nominated. The only film with a chance to pull an upset was The Intouchables, but that's history now.

  • Rael | January 10, 2013 4:42 AMReply

    Beyond the Hills, Kon-Tiki, A Royal Affair, The Untouchables, Amour...but I'd love also to see Fill the Void, Pieta, War Witch, No into that list.

    I havent seen BTH or TU.

    Amour maybe the fave this year but I still go for Kon-Tiki, no doubt the best among of them....in every aspect.

  • Io | January 8, 2013 10:59 AMReply

    The winner is Beyond the Hills.

  • BOO | January 8, 2013 7:37 AMReply

    Psshaw you guys had Separation at #3 last year. This is the same issue. Amour will win.

  • gerard kennelly | January 5, 2013 10:57 PMReply

    C A R A N C H O

  • julissa | January 3, 2013 2:34 PMReply

    NO! IS FINALIST BECAUSE GAEL GARCIA BERNAL!!

  • Maria | January 13, 2013 10:57 PM

    Julissa, I STRONGLY disagree, but everyone has a right to express their opinion. Ibeg to differ that a movie would be nominated based on an actor, and it is sad to see someone state that. I think NO has a lot more to offer than Gael, who, does have much to offer, but for someone to state that this is THE reason of nomination is far beyond reality otherwise movies like Amores Perros would have been nominated s well. This film is in an extremely well told "story" of a latin american country (one in many) trying to regain democracy through democratic means after 10 years of a HORRIFIC dictatorship.

  • plainsimplejake | January 2, 2013 3:28 PMReply

    There's a little mistake here: Our Children wasn't shortlisted. The Deep was.

    Also, Amour should be listed first.

  • JenniferWest | December 29, 2012 3:44 PMReply

    The Intouchables is the one to beat!

  • JenniferWest | December 29, 2012 3:43 PMReply

    The Intouchables is the one to beat!

  • JenniferWest | December 29, 2012 3:43 PMReply

    The Intouchables is the one to bet!

  • BOO | December 29, 2012 11:27 AMReply

    It's going to be Amour. Intouchables can get out.

  • Colette Hera Guggenheim | December 28, 2012 7:12 PMReply

    Ajjeeee good evening ,I really miss to see Life of Pie aswell in the predicted 5 of the nominated foreign movies,as Life of Pie helped me to survive Christmas in the North Europe Denmark thisd year,I know I am a bit late ,only I just felt like mention this wonderful movie ,really seriuosly a 5 + up stars.

    Sincere Colette H . Guggenheim Denmark

  • Colette H. Guggenheim | December 28, 2012 7:14 PM

    Aje ........sorry for my little spelling mistakes ,as I write quick ,and speak many languages. I hope you understand my words or meaning(LOL)

  • Malina | December 27, 2012 10:01 AMReply

    The Intouchables is the best movie i've ever seen. It's simply perfect.

  • Benedictus | December 24, 2012 9:46 PMReply

    You should really update this list. The shortlist has been announced

  • Giancarlo | December 22, 2012 3:13 PMReply

    I don't like a country can submit only one film: Rust & Bone (France) is the best film of the year, but France prefered to submit the box office hit Intouchables.

  • Orlando | December 21, 2012 6:27 PMReply

    I think that Argentina's "Clandestine Childhood" should be among the 5 finalist contenders. Remember the great surprise in 2010 with "The secret in their eyes" that finally got the bouquet against all odds

  • Vika | December 19, 2012 5:59 PMReply

    My pick would be: Amour, Ceasar Must Die, Pieta, A Royal Affair, The Intouchables, Hypnotist, Sister, Kon-Tiki. Hope one of those actually wins!

  • JamesG | December 18, 2012 5:16 PMReply

    "Amour" and "Blood of My Blood"! Best movies of the year!

  • lillian mizrahi | December 18, 2012 4:29 PMReply

    For foreign film category, do not forget about - THE THIRD HALF, the Macedonian
    submission. It's a small country, but this is truly a worthwhile film and deserves
    consideration.

  • Hannah | February 25, 2013 6:37 PM

    Very unfortunately that it didn't made at least the short-list.Too bad,because that movie was very very deep and truthful.Showed the real story.By the way John only the female lead is not a professional actress.I googled them both and everyone on the cast were professionals.Mainly theater actors but still professional.No brainwashing at all.Please read some history before you judge.I am Jewish and I know my own history,I know who the Bulgarians were at WW II so please be considerable.

  • John | December 21, 2012 7:45 PM

    The Third Half is just a simple pretentious propaganda that violates any historical context. It is rude and unnecessary and offensive and definitely maybe the worst Macedonian film of all time. Plus, the acting especially by the two leads (which are not by any means professional actors) is horrible. Totally reductive production. And I'm not Bulgarian. I just detest brainwashing and I certainly appreciate criticism.

  • Juha Hovilainen | December 17, 2012 9:36 AMReply

    Five letters...."Amour"... End of discussion...Thank you !

  • jayr | December 17, 2012 8:40 AMReply

    "Bwakaw" A Beautiful ASIAN FILM from the PHILIPPINES this should be included on your prediction. It tackles minute issues that LGBT's are going through in their everyday life that has grown so big during their lifetime and yet remain unnoticed by the society. If you're human, do watch this and don't forget your Kleenex you will need it. There's no Drama into it no fancy acting...simple yet beautiful. arf..arf.. BWAKAW!!!!!

  • Al | December 16, 2012 9:15 PMReply

    After Lucia from Mexico is good and should be among the final 5. It is a shame that rules only accept 1 film per country because this year France has 2 great pics: Intouchables / Rust and Bone. However, I think this will end up with a victory for Amour. My final 5? Amour (France), The Intouchables (France), A Royal Affair (Denmark), After Lucia (Mexico) and the last slot will be for Spain or Chile.

  • zirku12 | December 15, 2012 2:47 AMReply

    I think it is possible that "Amour" gets an best picture nomination, but it will lose against "the Untouchables" in best foreign film categorie at the Sscars . The Chances are small, but it is realistic, like 20%-30 % . The Untouchables won`t get an best picture nomination for sure . Sounds weird but it could really happen !

  • vick | December 16, 2012 4:08 AM

    Not to sound snobbish, but there are very few Americans that actually watched AND enjoyed "The Intouchables." The immense popularity f that movie is a mystery. The odds of that movie winning the Foreign Film Award over Amour is more like 1-2%.

  • Aldwin | December 14, 2012 8:21 AMReply

    "Bwakaw" of the Philippines is also a great contender in this category, it has a great review from New York and Toronto. So Let see if it can make it to the list.

  • meghani | December 13, 2012 3:06 PMReply

    Barfi! (Indian Film) deserves a nomination for sure.. Its a really nice..feel good movie..Consider that please..

  • ralch | December 13, 2012 11:42 AMReply

    Argentina's "Clandestine Childhood" could very well sneak in, as well as Japan's "Our Homeland" and Italy's "Caesar Must Die" . Japan and Italy are always contenders.

  • Tiki | December 13, 2012 9:13 AMReply

    Time to put Kon-Tiki back in the race.

  • Sam | December 11, 2012 11:21 PMReply

    Barfi! was a good movie (Indian film). It should be nominated, but definitely doesn't deserve to win. But hope it gets nominated. The Oscars have been pretty partial in never nominating Bollywood films :(

  • meghani | December 13, 2012 3:19 PM

    looks like oscar ppl even dont know abt Barfi!..should spread awareness than this...

  • Tyler | December 10, 2012 3:22 PMReply

    Does HOLY MOTORS not qualify somehow?

  • GIANCARLO | December 22, 2012 3:36 PM

    both Rust & Bone and Holy Motors are better than Intouchables, but France prefered to submit the box office hit Intouchables. I don't like the rule a country has to submit no more than 1 film. I am Italian and also Italy had a better film than Ceasar Must Die: the Italo-Chinese film Little Venice, which won the European Parliament Award as best European film of the year.

  • BOO | December 12, 2012 8:05 PM

    I think that it's because each country submits one movie, and France submitted The Intouchables so now Rust and Bone and Holy Motors can't qualify, although I'm sure they are both better than Intouchables since that wasn't that good. I really want to see Holy Motors.

  • Ay.C | December 10, 2012 4:15 AMReply

    Barfi! Is one of the best movie Bollywood has ever made and the acting from the lead pair was incredible. Hopefully it will be nominated to represent India.

  • ekta | February 26, 2013 2:20 AM

    Barfi stands nowhere in world cinema....!!! Of Course for India it is a good, entertaining movie... but does not have an appeal with International audience.

  • Sasha | December 10, 2012 3:00 AMReply

    Blood of My Blood!!!

  • suraj kumar nanda | December 9, 2012 9:02 AMReply

    academyalways india.But barfi is a masterpiece

  • Rise 2012 | December 8, 2012 5:41 AMReply

    "Myn Bala", "Blood of my blood"!..

  • Sydonie | December 7, 2012 7:59 PMReply

    The spanish Blancanieves grabs you through its aesthetic tecnically perfect! The music, photography, scenery, the make-up and costumes are fascinating! And keep an eye on actress Maribel Verdu (Y tu mama Tambien- The Pan's labyrinth-Tetro), she plays the stepmother's role masterfully!
    I hope it is one of the 5! It deserves it.

  • Sydonie | December 7, 2012 7:49 PMReply

    The spanish Blancanieves seduces through its aesthetic technically perfect. The music, scenery, photography, the make-up and the costumes grabs you. Actress Maribel Verdu (Y Tu Mama Tambien- Pan's Labyrinth- Tetro) plays the stepmother's role masterfully.
    Keep an eye on Blancanieves. I hope it is one of the 5!

  • SKiller | December 2, 2012 5:33 PMReply

    I saw almost all of these films and I honestly, deeply, truly, madly hope the Oscar goes to BLOOD OF MY BLOOD!!

  • IA-14 | December 1, 2012 2:23 PMReply

    "Myn Bala: Warriors of the steppe", I think, one of the most interesting submissions.

  • John | November 30, 2012 11:59 AMReply

    What about Paraguayan movie "7 boxes"? I think it was incredibly surprising cause we've never heard about Paraguayan movies. It's definitely an A-movie, amazing production and for intance, a low-bufget one.

  • Claudia | November 29, 2012 3:08 PMReply

    Blood Of My Blood !

  • L | November 26, 2012 8:51 PMReply

    How can you leave out "Kon-Tiki" and "Pieta"????

  • JOHN | November 20, 2012 11:32 PMReply

    This category is almost impossible to predict. You have to consider that there's a commitee that watches all the movies. There's always great films there that no one expects to get nominated on these "lists", but it gets it (and in some cases even win). For example, "Secret in their eyes" didn't win any critics award or buzz but took the big prize. This year I suggest to keep an eye on "Clandestine childhood", it could make the shortlist (a "long shot" it would be).

  • BOO | November 20, 2012 6:59 PMReply

    This NEEDS to be updated. How can you say Amour will be nominated for 3 major Oscars and not win? Last year you put A Separation at #3 for about a month and everyone knew you were wrong and you were. Intouchables doesn't deserve it anyway.

  • John | December 21, 2012 7:55 PM

    Totally right! I mean the main talk around Haneke's masterpiece is whether it will get a nod in the Best Picture and possibly Best Director category. The chances for Rive for getting a slot in the Best Actress category are pretty high. It is almost certain that Haneke will be nominated for Best Original Screenplay. Virtually, everybody out there KNOWS that Amour will MOST CERTAINLY WIN Best Foreign Picture. Creating buzz around silly little predictable box-office lemonade like The Intouchables is offensive.

  • zwok | November 17, 2012 1:43 PMReply

    As I see it, there are too many good movies for one single price.

  • zwok | November 17, 2012 1:32 PMReply

    The spanish blancanieves is beautiful, creative, and surprising despite of telling snowhite tail. it may be not the best from this list, but defenetely it has something that makes it worth seeing it.
    I hope it is nominated for the last 5.

  • mamat | November 14, 2012 12:05 PMReply

    bunohan ~~

  • smith | November 16, 2012 2:08 PM

    yeah agreed!

  • anth | November 14, 2012 12:21 AMReply

    barfi (India)can win this.....

  • Beverly | November 25, 2012 10:11 AM

    Yeah, barfi is really really god nd make it.

  • BOO | November 13, 2012 10:37 PMReply

    No way. There is absolutely no way Amour is not winning this. It's probably going to be nominated for screenplay, so it automatically wins. Intouchables is not oscar worthy.

  • Pedro | October 26, 2012 8:21 AMReply

    Please remove The Hypnotists from Sweden, it has gotten TERRIBLE reviews in Sweden. Really, really bad. It

  • victor&spoils | December 1, 2012 9:22 PM

    The Hypnotist was good. Our Children was TERRIBLE!
    Saw them both so please go see the films my friend.

  • Lucy | October 23, 2012 5:46 PMReply

    "If only everyone.." movie seems very powerful. I hope it gets nominated. It already one several prizes in other movie festivals

  • Gonçalo | October 21, 2012 3:32 PMReply

    Blood of my Blood for sure!

  • Tania | October 21, 2012 6:16 AMReply

    INUK!!!!!

  • Claudia | October 18, 2012 5:30 PMReply

    Blood Of My Blood !!

  • patrickG | October 17, 2012 5:11 PMReply

    Either going to Blood of My Blood or Amour that's guaranteed!

  • WhiteWinterHymnal | October 16, 2012 7:32 AMReply

    What about Caesar Must Die?

  • HUGH | October 15, 2012 9:09 AMReply

    Blood Of My Blood, definitely!

  • Nuno Cunha | October 15, 2012 6:28 AMReply

    I hope the members of the Academy see Blood of My Blood and nominate the film. It is a Cassavetes/Scorsese/Tarantino kind of thriller, that will dry your goats. Besides, Portugal never got a nomination, and in the current crisis, no film is beeing produced or will be if we don't get this recognition. Nominating it will be a statement.

  • santosh patnaik | November 25, 2012 3:30 AM

    see gangs of wasseypur-1,2 from india to feel the same..epic,violent,jaw dropping!!!it have been d best bet from india alas Barfi!!!

  • nhc | October 12, 2012 7:26 AMReply

    Because there is no "Caesar Must Die"? After all it won the Golden Bear at the Berlin Festival. And it was very popular all over the world...

  • JulienB | October 11, 2012 12:27 PMReply

    Blood of My Blood, Amour and The Intouchables will be nominated for sure! Mark my words!!!!!

  • Ineza | October 10, 2012 2:13 AMReply

    BUNOHAN - Dain Said from Malaysia, should most definitely be in there....

  • christian | October 9, 2012 3:20 PMReply

    No,is the story of how a song change the destiny of a nation

  • NIKO | October 9, 2012 12:46 PMReply

    NO (Chile) - Very Good

  • luis | October 2, 2012 5:46 PMReply

    I think the italian entry "Caesar must die" is a favourite to be nominated. It has wonderful reviews. It won the Golden bear at the Berlin Festival. The film follows convicts in their rehearsals ahead of a prison performance of Shakespeare's Julius Caesar.

  • mass | October 2, 2012 10:42 AMReply

    Probably going to Amour.

  • chris | October 2, 2012 10:31 AMReply

    The Spanish entry 'Blancanieves' (Snow White) the silent black-and-white movie could be nominated. It recieved really good reviews at Toronto International Film Festival.

  • chris | October 2, 2012 10:31 AMReply

    The Spanish entry 'Blancanieves' (Snow White) the silent black-and-white movie could be nominated. It recieved really good reviews at Toronto International Film Festival.

  • chris | October 2, 2012 10:30 AMReply

    The Spanish entry 'Blancanieves' (Snow White) the silent black-and-white movie could be nominated. It recieved really good reviews at Toronto International Film Festival.

  • BOO | September 28, 2012 4:53 PMReply

    Is Holy Motors not in competition?

  • Ivan DC | September 28, 2012 2:54 PMReply

    Blancanieves, a spanish surprise can hit in the oscars

  • Ivan DC | September 28, 2012 2:53 PMReply

    Blancanieves, a spanish surprise can hit in the oscars

  • Thea | September 27, 2012 3:32 PMReply

    Kon tiki is awesome! Best movie ever made