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by Peter Knegt
Mon Jan 28 11:00:00 EST 2013
99 Comments
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2013 Oscar Predictions: Best Foreign Language Film

"A Royal Affair"
Indiewire will provide regular updates of our predictions for the 85th Academy Awards through February 24th, when the winners are announced.

Here's our take on the best foreign film category, which offered a major shocker in the nominees by excluding France's "The Intouchables," a film many thought could win. Without it, things certainly look good for Austria's "Amour." But this category has a history of offering unexpected (and undeserving) winners, so who knows...

Nominees and predictions below. Check out all predictions in all the categories here, and this list of all the Oscar-nominated films available ON DEMAND right now.

The nominees:
"Amour" Austria
"Kon-Tiki" Norway
"No" Chile
"A Royal Affair" Denmark
"War Witch" Canada

Will win: "Amour"
Could win: "No"
Should win: "Amour"

Check out all predictions in all the categories here.

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99 Comments

  • JD | Sat Feb 02 11:22:52 EST 2013Reply

    Armour possibly has the most guaranteed chance of victory in this category in Oscar history. I mean, come on, it's nominated for Best Actress, Best Screenplay, Best Director, and BEST PICTURE!

  • Playsomeskynard | Wed Jan 23 01:01:54 EST 2013Reply

    Its hard to believe this is not an Austrian website. Amour is NEVER going to win. The movie was soo painful to watch. Intouchables could have won last year & it will win this year. I have seen about 1/2 the nominated movies so far this year and Amour is at the bottom. People said the same thing about White Ribbon winning & I also put it at the bottom. Michael Haneke has a style that is just not uplifting in any way. I cant wait to watch other nations submissions, but after I read these threads I watch Amour & wish I would have not have.

  • JD | Sat Feb 02 11:25:30 EST 2013

    Whether you like it or not, Armour is definitely going to win. I haven't seen it, so I can't comment if it deserves to win, but with all of the other nominations it has, it will definitely win.

  • StickFiggas | Thu Jan 17 20:11:07 EST 2013Reply

    even in FRINZEE, amour is on TOP!

  • GT•Bob | Wed Jan 23 21:46:56 EST 2013

    Amour's got a lot of fanboys! well i havent wtched it yet! Is it better than watching the Super Bowl XLVII? haha well i voted "A Royal Affair" on Frinzee !! 2nd spot on the poll! Anyway, Oscars will decided who deserves it but all of em could win.

  • Krystle | Tue Jan 22 02:17:05 EST 2013

    yeah i saw it at frinzee!! i do vote for amour

  • Sadie | Sat Jan 12 18:08:40 EST 2013Reply

    I agree with Amour, but I don't think "any of them" could win. They're all good, true. But Amour's nominations in other key fields, including Best Picture, speaks loud and clear of how the Academy feels about it. The rest should just be happy to be nominated. The only film with a chance to pull an upset was The Intouchables, but that's history now.

  • Rael | Thu Jan 10 04:42:56 EST 2013Reply

    Beyond the Hills, Kon-Tiki, A Royal Affair, The Untouchables, Amour...but I'd love also to see Fill the Void, Pieta, War Witch, No into that list.

    I havent seen BTH or TU.

    Amour maybe the fave this year but I still go for Kon-Tiki, no doubt the best among of them....in every aspect.

  • Io | Tue Jan 08 10:59:46 EST 2013Reply

    The winner is Beyond the Hills.

  • BOO | Tue Jan 08 07:37:17 EST 2013Reply

    Psshaw you guys had Separation at #3 last year. This is the same issue. Amour will win.

  • gerard kennelly | Sat Jan 05 22:57:28 EST 2013Reply

    C A R A N C H O

  • julissa | Thu Jan 03 14:34:12 EST 2013Reply

    NO! IS FINALIST BECAUSE GAEL GARCIA BERNAL!!

  • Maria | Sun Jan 13 22:57:17 EST 2013

    Julissa, I STRONGLY disagree, but everyone has a right to express their opinion. Ibeg to differ that a movie would be nominated based on an actor, and it is sad to see someone state that. I think NO has a lot more to offer than Gael, who, does have much to offer, but for someone to state that this is THE reason of nomination is far beyond reality otherwise movies like Amores Perros would have been nominated s well. This film is in an extremely well told "story" of a latin american country (one in many) trying to regain democracy through democratic means after 10 years of a HORRIFIC dictatorship.

  • plainsimplejake | Wed Jan 02 15:28:44 EST 2013Reply

    There's a little mistake here: Our Children wasn't shortlisted. The Deep was.

    Also, Amour should be listed first.

  • JenniferWest | Sat Dec 29 15:44:37 EST 2012Reply

    The Intouchables is the one to beat!

  • JenniferWest | Sat Dec 29 15:43:55 EST 2012Reply

    The Intouchables is the one to beat!

  • JenniferWest | Sat Dec 29 15:43:26 EST 2012Reply

    The Intouchables is the one to bet!

  • BOO | Sat Dec 29 11:27:10 EST 2012Reply

    It's going to be Amour. Intouchables can get out.

  • Colette Hera Guggenheim | Fri Dec 28 19:12:49 EST 2012Reply

    Ajjeeee good evening ,I really miss to see Life of Pie aswell in the predicted 5 of the nominated foreign movies,as Life of Pie helped me to survive Christmas in the North Europe Denmark thisd year,I know I am a bit late ,only I just felt like mention this wonderful movie ,really seriuosly a 5 + up stars.

    Sincere Colette H . Guggenheim Denmark

  • Colette H. Guggenheim | Fri Dec 28 19:14:53 EST 2012

    Aje ........sorry for my little spelling mistakes ,as I write quick ,and speak many languages. I hope you understand my words or meaning(LOL)

  • Malina | Thu Dec 27 10:01:50 EST 2012Reply

    The Intouchables is the best movie i've ever seen. It's simply perfect.

  • Benedictus | Mon Dec 24 21:46:39 EST 2012Reply

    You should really update this list. The shortlist has been announced

  • Giancarlo | Sat Dec 22 15:13:14 EST 2012Reply

    I don't like a country can submit only one film: Rust & Bone (France) is the best film of the year, but France prefered to submit the box office hit Intouchables.

  • Orlando | Fri Dec 21 18:27:06 EST 2012Reply

    I think that Argentina's "Clandestine Childhood" should be among the 5 finalist contenders. Remember the great surprise in 2010 with "The secret in their eyes" that finally got the bouquet against all odds

  • Vika | Wed Dec 19 17:59:42 EST 2012Reply

    My pick would be: Amour, Ceasar Must Die, Pieta, A Royal Affair, The Intouchables, Hypnotist, Sister, Kon-Tiki. Hope one of those actually wins!

  • JamesG | Tue Dec 18 17:16:10 EST 2012Reply

    "Amour" and "Blood of My Blood"! Best movies of the year!

  • lillian mizrahi | Tue Dec 18 16:29:21 EST 2012Reply

    For foreign film category, do not forget about - THE THIRD HALF, the Macedonian
    submission. It's a small country, but this is truly a worthwhile film and deserves
    consideration.

  • John | Fri Dec 21 19:45:59 EST 2012

    The Third Half is just a simple pretentious propaganda that violates any historical context. It is rude and unnecessary and offensive and definitely maybe the worst Macedonian film of all time. Plus, the acting especially by the two leads (which are not by any means professional actors) is horrible. Totally reductive production. And I'm not Bulgarian. I just detest brainwashing and I certainly appreciate criticism.

  • Juha Hovilainen | Mon Dec 17 09:36:16 EST 2012Reply

    Five letters...."Amour"... End of discussion...Thank you !

  • jayr | Mon Dec 17 08:40:11 EST 2012Reply

    "Bwakaw" A Beautiful ASIAN FILM from the PHILIPPINES this should be included on your prediction. It tackles minute issues that LGBT's are going through in their everyday life that has grown so big during their lifetime and yet remain unnoticed by the society. If you're human, do watch this and don't forget your Kleenex you will need it. There's no Drama into it no fancy acting...simple yet beautiful. arf..arf.. BWAKAW!!!!!

  • Al | Sun Dec 16 21:15:14 EST 2012Reply

    After Lucia from Mexico is good and should be among the final 5. It is a shame that rules only accept 1 film per country because this year France has 2 great pics: Intouchables / Rust and Bone. However, I think this will end up with a victory for Amour. My final 5? Amour (France), The Intouchables (France), A Royal Affair (Denmark), After Lucia (Mexico) and the last slot will be for Spain or Chile.

  • zirku12 | Sat Dec 15 02:47:12 EST 2012Reply

    I think it is possible that "Amour" gets an best picture nomination, but it will lose against "the Untouchables" in best foreign film categorie at the Sscars . The Chances are small, but it is realistic, like 20%-30 % . The Untouchables won`t get an best picture nomination for sure . Sounds weird but it could really happen !

  • vick | Sun Dec 16 04:08:35 EST 2012

    Not to sound snobbish, but there are very few Americans that actually watched AND enjoyed "The Intouchables." The immense popularity f that movie is a mystery. The odds of that movie winning the Foreign Film Award over Amour is more like 1-2%.

  • Aldwin | Fri Dec 14 08:21:05 EST 2012Reply

    "Bwakaw" of the Philippines is also a great contender in this category, it has a great review from New York and Toronto. So Let see if it can make it to the list.

  • meghani | Thu Dec 13 15:06:59 EST 2012Reply

    Barfi! (Indian Film) deserves a nomination for sure.. Its a really nice..feel good movie..Consider that please..

  • ralch | Thu Dec 13 11:42:28 EST 2012Reply

    Argentina's "Clandestine Childhood" could very well sneak in, as well as Japan's "Our Homeland" and Italy's "Caesar Must Die" . Japan and Italy are always contenders.

  • Tiki | Thu Dec 13 09:13:02 EST 2012Reply

    Time to put Kon-Tiki back in the race.

  • Sam | Tue Dec 11 23:21:13 EST 2012Reply

    Barfi! was a good movie (Indian film). It should be nominated, but definitely doesn't deserve to win. But hope it gets nominated. The Oscars have been pretty partial in never nominating Bollywood films :(

  • meghani | Thu Dec 13 15:19:39 EST 2012

    looks like oscar ppl even dont know abt Barfi!..should spread awareness than this...

  • Tyler | Mon Dec 10 15:22:32 EST 2012Reply

    Does HOLY MOTORS not qualify somehow?

  • GIANCARLO | Sat Dec 22 15:36:41 EST 2012

    both Rust & Bone and Holy Motors are better than Intouchables, but France prefered to submit the box office hit Intouchables. I don't like the rule a country has to submit no more than 1 film. I am Italian and also Italy had a better film than Ceasar Must Die: the Italo-Chinese film Little Venice, which won the European Parliament Award as best European film of the year.

  • BOO | Wed Dec 12 20:05:42 EST 2012

    I think that it's because each country submits one movie, and France submitted The Intouchables so now Rust and Bone and Holy Motors can't qualify, although I'm sure they are both better than Intouchables since that wasn't that good. I really want to see Holy Motors.

  • Ay.C | Mon Dec 10 04:15:10 EST 2012Reply

    Barfi! Is one of the best movie Bollywood has ever made and the acting from the lead pair was incredible. Hopefully it will be nominated to represent India.

  • Sasha | Mon Dec 10 03:00:13 EST 2012Reply

    Blood of My Blood!!!

  • suraj kumar nanda | Sun Dec 09 09:02:53 EST 2012Reply

    academyalways india.But barfi is a masterpiece

  • Rise 2012 | Sat Dec 08 05:41:33 EST 2012Reply

    "Myn Bala", "Blood of my blood"!..

  • Sydonie | Fri Dec 07 19:59:34 EST 2012Reply

    The spanish Blancanieves grabs you through its aesthetic tecnically perfect! The music, photography, scenery, the make-up and costumes are fascinating! And keep an eye on actress Maribel Verdu (Y tu mama Tambien- The Pan's labyrinth-Tetro), she plays the stepmother's role masterfully!
    I hope it is one of the 5! It deserves it.

  • Sydonie | Fri Dec 07 19:49:34 EST 2012Reply

    The spanish Blancanieves seduces through its aesthetic technically perfect. The music, scenery, photography, the make-up and the costumes grabs you. Actress Maribel Verdu (Y Tu Mama Tambien- Pan's Labyrinth- Tetro) plays the stepmother's role masterfully.
    Keep an eye on Blancanieves. I hope it is one of the 5!

  • SKiller | Sun Dec 02 17:33:18 EST 2012Reply

    I saw almost all of these films and I honestly, deeply, truly, madly hope the Oscar goes to BLOOD OF MY BLOOD!!

  • IA-14 | Sat Dec 01 14:23:31 EST 2012Reply

    "Myn Bala: Warriors of the steppe", I think, one of the most interesting submissions.

  • John | Fri Nov 30 11:59:17 EST 2012Reply

    What about Paraguayan movie "7 boxes"? I think it was incredibly surprising cause we've never heard about Paraguayan movies. It's definitely an A-movie, amazing production and for intance, a low-bufget one.

  • Claudia | Thu Nov 29 15:08:04 EST 2012Reply

    Blood Of My Blood !

  • L | Mon Nov 26 20:51:50 EST 2012Reply

    How can you leave out "Kon-Tiki" and "Pieta"????

  • JOHN | Tue Nov 20 23:32:18 EST 2012Reply

    This category is almost impossible to predict. You have to consider that there's a commitee that watches all the movies. There's always great films there that no one expects to get nominated on these "lists", but it gets it (and in some cases even win). For example, "Secret in their eyes" didn't win any critics award or buzz but took the big prize. This year I suggest to keep an eye on "Clandestine childhood", it could make the shortlist (a "long shot" it would be).

  • BOO | Tue Nov 20 18:59:03 EST 2012Reply

    This NEEDS to be updated. How can you say Amour will be nominated for 3 major Oscars and not win? Last year you put A Separation at #3 for about a month and everyone knew you were wrong and you were. Intouchables doesn't deserve it anyway.

  • John | Fri Dec 21 19:55:26 EST 2012

    Totally right! I mean the main talk around Haneke's masterpiece is whether it will get a nod in the Best Picture and possibly Best Director category. The chances for Rive for getting a slot in the Best Actress category are pretty high. It is almost certain that Haneke will be nominated for Best Original Screenplay. Virtually, everybody out there KNOWS that Amour will MOST CERTAINLY WIN Best Foreign Picture. Creating buzz around silly little predictable box-office lemonade like The Intouchables is offensive.

  • zwok | Sat Nov 17 13:43:56 EST 2012Reply

    As I see it, there are too many good movies for one single price.

  • zwok | Sat Nov 17 13:32:02 EST 2012Reply

    The spanish blancanieves is beautiful, creative, and surprising despite of telling snowhite tail. it may be not the best from this list, but defenetely it has something that makes it worth seeing it.
    I hope it is nominated for the last 5.

  • mamat | Wed Nov 14 12:05:29 EST 2012Reply

    bunohan ~~

  • smith | Fri Nov 16 14:08:31 EST 2012

    yeah agreed!

  • anth | Wed Nov 14 00:21:19 EST 2012Reply

    barfi (India)can win this.....

  • Beverly | Sun Nov 25 10:11:29 EST 2012

    Yeah, barfi is really really god nd make it.

  • BOO | Tue Nov 13 22:37:17 EST 2012Reply

    No way. There is absolutely no way Amour is not winning this. It's probably going to be nominated for screenplay, so it automatically wins. Intouchables is not oscar worthy.

  • Pedro | Fri Oct 26 08:21:05 EDT 2012Reply

    Please remove The Hypnotists from Sweden, it has gotten TERRIBLE reviews in Sweden. Really, really bad. It

  • victor&spoils | Sat Dec 01 21:22:43 EST 2012

    The Hypnotist was good. Our Children was TERRIBLE!
    Saw them both so please go see the films my friend.

  • Lucy | Tue Oct 23 17:46:36 EDT 2012Reply

    "If only everyone.." movie seems very powerful. I hope it gets nominated. It already one several prizes in other movie festivals

  • Gonçalo | Sun Oct 21 15:32:13 EDT 2012Reply

    Blood of my Blood for sure!

  • Tania | Sun Oct 21 06:16:03 EDT 2012Reply

    INUK!!!!!

  • Claudia | Thu Oct 18 17:30:53 EDT 2012Reply

    Blood Of My Blood !!

  • patrickG | Wed Oct 17 17:11:32 EDT 2012Reply

    Either going to Blood of My Blood or Amour that's guaranteed!

  • WhiteWinterHymnal | Tue Oct 16 07:32:02 EDT 2012Reply

    What about Caesar Must Die?

  • HUGH | Mon Oct 15 09:09:55 EDT 2012Reply

    Blood Of My Blood, definitely!

  • Nuno Cunha | Mon Oct 15 06:28:44 EDT 2012Reply

    I hope the members of the Academy see Blood of My Blood and nominate the film. It is a Cassavetes/Scorsese/Tarantino kind of thriller, that will dry your goats. Besides, Portugal never got a nomination, and in the current crisis, no film is beeing produced or will be if we don't get this recognition. Nominating it will be a statement.

  • santosh patnaik | Sun Nov 25 03:30:31 EST 2012

    see gangs of wasseypur-1,2 from india to feel the same..epic,violent,jaw dropping!!!it have been d best bet from india alas Barfi!!!

  • nhc | Fri Oct 12 07:26:34 EDT 2012Reply

    Because there is no "Caesar Must Die"? After all it won the Golden Bear at the Berlin Festival. And it was very popular all over the world...

  • JulienB | Thu Oct 11 12:27:47 EDT 2012Reply

    Blood of My Blood, Amour and The Intouchables will be nominated for sure! Mark my words!!!!!

  • Ineza | Wed Oct 10 02:13:42 EDT 2012Reply

    BUNOHAN - Dain Said from Malaysia, should most definitely be in there....

  • christian | Tue Oct 09 15:20:21 EDT 2012Reply

    No,is the story of how a song change the destiny of a nation

  • NIKO | Tue Oct 09 12:46:04 EDT 2012Reply

    NO (Chile) - Very Good

  • luis | Tue Oct 02 17:46:38 EDT 2012Reply

    I think the italian entry "Caesar must die" is a favourite to be nominated. It has wonderful reviews. It won the Golden bear at the Berlin Festival. The film follows convicts in their rehearsals ahead of a prison performance of Shakespeare's Julius Caesar.

  • mass | Tue Oct 02 10:42:45 EDT 2012Reply

    Probably going to Amour.

  • chris | Tue Oct 02 10:31:36 EDT 2012Reply

    The Spanish entry 'Blancanieves' (Snow White) the silent black-and-white movie could be nominated. It recieved really good reviews at Toronto International Film Festival.

  • chris | Tue Oct 02 10:31:23 EDT 2012Reply

    The Spanish entry 'Blancanieves' (Snow White) the silent black-and-white movie could be nominated. It recieved really good reviews at Toronto International Film Festival.

  • chris | Tue Oct 02 10:30:58 EDT 2012Reply

    The Spanish entry 'Blancanieves' (Snow White) the silent black-and-white movie could be nominated. It recieved really good reviews at Toronto International Film Festival.

  • BOO | Fri Sep 28 16:53:54 EDT 2012Reply

    Is Holy Motors not in competition?

  • Ivan DC | Fri Sep 28 14:54:09 EDT 2012Reply

    Blancanieves, a spanish surprise can hit in the oscars

  • Ivan DC | Fri Sep 28 14:53:55 EDT 2012Reply

    Blancanieves, a spanish surprise can hit in the oscars

  • Thea | Thu Sep 27 15:32:08 EDT 2012Reply

    Kon tiki is awesome! Best movie ever made

  • Gerry Veil | Tue Sep 25 21:40:24 EDT 2012Reply

    What about BWAKAW? This Philippine entry could be a dark horse. There were a couple of Academy members at the NY Film Festival industry screening who loved it, and said they'd campaign for it. The press loves it too. It's about an aging man in his 70's and his pet dog, Bwakaw. It's an lgbt film that's funny, moving and unsentimental. Someone one described it as 'Alexander Payne' meets 'Almodovar.' Seems to hit all the right notes that Oscar voters love.

  • MARWIN | Fri Sep 28 04:35:10 EDT 2012

    I'M A FILIPINO BUT THERE WAS 100 PLUS OF FILMS THAT HAS BEEN SUBMITTED AND THAT WAS ONLY A PREDICTION, JUST WAIT WHO WILL BE NOMINATED. ^_^

  • Jessica | Tue Sep 25 21:02:13 EDT 2012Reply

    Oh Amour, Amour....

  • indiewiredguy | Tue Sep 25 20:16:32 EDT 2012Reply

    Weird predictions guys! I am not a fan of Intouchables. I saw Blood of My Blood at San Sebastian FilmFest and loved it! It got the FIPRESCI award. You should def watch it :)

  • RachelGoldenberg | Tue Sep 25 17:55:16 EDT 2012Reply

    I agree! The Intouchables is just some French pop corn movie, France has such good movies I don't get it why they would submit this one. Rust and Bone was so much better!
    Amour will be nominated for sure. I didn't get to see Blood of my Blood but I heard great things about it.

  • BOO | Tue Sep 25 17:44:01 EDT 2012Reply

    I can't say weather or not this will be nominated, but I felt like The Intouchables was merely crowd pleasing.

  • AaronB | Tue Sep 25 17:42:22 EDT 2012Reply

    Amour, Pieta, Blood of my Blood and The Intouchables are my absolute favorites

  • weirdmoviefan | Tue Sep 25 17:35:30 EDT 2012Reply

    Hoping for War Witch to sneak through, mostly because I love Canadian movies.

  • Kris R. | Tue Sep 25 17:21:49 EDT 2012Reply

    I agree with almost all your predictions besides "Fill the Void".
    "Amour" is a masterpiece, really liked "Lore" as well but my absolute favorite is hands down "Blood of My Blood"! - OUTSTANDING performances and disturbing story. Took me months to digest the disturbing story! have you seen it? - it deserves at least a nomination!

  • HPP | Thu Dec 13 18:00:58 EST 2012

    I agree! Such a great movie! It deserves without no doubt a nomination!

  • JM | Tue Sep 25 12:48:52 EDT 2012Reply

    "Lore" was my favourite film at TIFF this year - a masterpiece!