Best Female Lead:
Jennifer Lawrence lost in this category to Natalie Portman back in 2010 (where in an extraordinarily rare feat all five Spirit Award nominees were also Oscar nominees). Here she's one of two Oscar nominees, the other being Quvenzhane Wallis of "Beasts." But it's hard to imagine Wallis toppling Lawrence, despite the disappointment in thinking that had "Silver Linings" not been eligible, this would have been Wallis' one chance to make a surely adorable acceptance speech. This is probably the surest bet "Silver Linings" has at the Spirit Awards.
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Who Could Win: Quvenzhane Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Who Should Win: Quvenzhane Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Who Shoulda Been Here: Melanie Lynskey, "Hello I Must Be Going"
Best Male Lead: Will John Hawkes' unexpected snub at the Oscars for his incredible work in "The Sessions" help him gain sympathy votes or hurt him here? Probably the latter, especially since he won a Spirit Award two years ago for "Winter's Bone." Bradley Cooper will likely win instead, giving "Silver Linings" another trophy and Cooper his only major award of the season.
Who Will Win: Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Who Could Win: John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
Who Should Win: John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
Who Shoulda Been Here: Logan Lerman, "The Perks of Being a Wallflower"
Best Supporting Female: Helen Hunt will very likely take the one and only Spirit Award for "The Sessions" here, though she faces some competition from Ann Dowd, who came so close to an Oscar nomination after a personally financed campaign that got a bit of attention. But the Oscar nominee almost always wins (almost -- last year they gave Oscar snubbed Shailene Woodley this award over nominee Janet McTeer), so we're going with Hunt (oddly, her fellow Oscar nominee Jacki Weaver didn't make the cut here).
Helen Hunt in 'The Sessions'
Who Will Win: Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"
Who Could Win: Ann Dowd, "Compliance"
Who Should Win: Rosemarie DeWitt, "Your Sister's Sister"
Who Shoulda Been Here: Gina Gershon, "Killer Joe"