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by Peter Knegt
February 23, 2013 8:00 AM
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2013 Spirit Award Predictions: Will It Be the 'Silver Linings' or the 'Southern Wild' Show?

"Moonrise Kingdom"
Best Screenplay: This could feasibly be the sole bone thrown to Wes Anderson's "Moonrise Kingdom," though it seems likely this will be David O. Russell's prize for "Silver Linings." Whether it joins a prize for best director is -- as aforementioned -- a bigger question.

What Will Win: "Silver Linings Playbook"
What Could Win: "Moonrise Kingdom"
What Should Win: "Moonrise Kingdom"
What Shoulda Been Here: "The Perks of Being a Wallflower"

Best First Screenplay: Four of the past six winners here have gone on to win an Oscar the next night (and another to create "Girls"), but there's no Oscar nominees here (despite Benh Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar's Oscar-nominated script for "Beasts" being their first). Which leaves Derek Connolly of "Safety Not Guaranteed" likely duking it out with Rashida Jones and Will McCormack for "Celeste and Jesse Forever."  

What Will Win: "Safety Not Guaranteed"
What Could Win: "Celeste and Jesse Forever"
What Should Win: "Gayby"
What Shoulda Been Here: "Magic Mike"

Best Cinematography: "Moonrise Kingdom" could rally, but this is probably the most assured prize for "Beasts of the Southern Wild" at the Spirits.

What Will Win: "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
What Could Win: "Moonrise Kingdom"
What Should Win: "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
What Shoulda Been Here: "The Loneliest Planet"

David France's "How to Survive a Plague."
Best Documentary: With "Searching For Sugar Man" nowhere to be found, we can finally get a refreshing winner here, likely either "How To Survive a Plague" or "The Invisible War," both Oscar nominees too. We'll bet the former, but it could truly go either way (or another -- these docs are all worthy).

What Will Win: "How To Survive a Plague"
What Could Win: "The Invisible War"
What Should Win: They are all excellent.
What Shoulda Been Here: "The Queen of Versailles"

Best Foreign Film: Surest thing of the night: Michael Haneke's "Amour" is winning this award. Like "A Separation" last year, it will do so a day before doing it again at the Oscars (though oddly in the 25 years before that, no film ever won both).

What Will Win: "Amour"
What Could Win: N/A
What Should Win: "Amour"
What Shoulda Been Here: "Holy Motors"

Indiewire will be on the scene at the Spirit Awards this Saturday afternoon, and will be offering full updates as they come in.

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  • Susan | February 20, 2013 7:33 AMReply

    Definitely not how I voted!

  • randy | February 20, 2013 12:36 AMReply

    what is even remotely indie about silver linings? not only is it overrated but it's by far the most convential film I've seen this year.

  • Steven Ball | February 19, 2013 4:41 PMReply

    Dwight Henry who plays Wink in Beasts of the Southern Wild has been overlooked in all the major awards. He plays Hushpuppy's father & their 2 performances are an amazing duet. She is deserving of an Oscar & he should have been nominated as well. Silver Linings will come and go but years from now scientists of the future will know there was a Hushpuppy who lived with her father in The Bathtub.