"Gravity" vs. "12 Years a Slave"? That certainly seemed like the
narrative we were heading into for quite some time, which would have shared commonalities
with the "Avatar" vs. "The Hurt Locker," "Hugo" vs. "The Artist" and
"Life of Pi" vs. "Argo" showdowns that met the last three years (an
expensive, 3D critical and commercial hit versus a smaller film tackling
history in one way or another)... History won all three times, but this
year is clearly closer than ever. The two films historically tied
for the PGA top honors, which just goes to show how tight this is. Add
in "American Hustle," which has received a ton of love from the
precursors too, and we got ourselves a bonafide three-way race. Unless
something truly shocking happens, one of these three films is winning
best picture, and we've been going back and forth between "12 Years" and
"Gravity" as my pick... I've finally landed on the former, but frankly
am just excited to be this uncertain so late in the race.
Will win: "12 Years a Slave"
Could win: "Gravity"
Should win: "Her" (though "12 Years" or "Gravity" would suit me just fine).
Shoulda been here: "Inside Llewyn Davis"
Check out all predictions in all the categories here.
Sign up HERE for Indiewire's Awards Season newsletter and receive a twice-weekly email roundup of our awards stories, hand-picked by our editors from across the Indiewire Network, plus additional coverage in the final run up to the Oscars.