Not too long ago, Michael Keaton seemed like the man to beat in what has been the most competitive of all the acting races all season long. He's the sentimental favorite, starring in the film with the most Oscar nominations. Not to mention he won both a Golden Globe (in the comedy-musical category) and a Critics Choice Award a few weeks back. But then this weekend, he lost out on what could have confirmed his frontrunner status: the SAG Award. Eddie Redmayne took that for "The Theory of Everything," adding to his own Golden Globe in the drama category. What's important there is that the last time the winner in SAG's Best Actor category didn't go on to win the Oscar was way back in 2003. So does it appear that Redmayne now has the edge in a neck-and-neck race between him and Keaton? Not if Bradley Cooper -- the only nominee in this category without any previous bids for the win -- has anything to say about it. Cooper wasn't competing against Keaton or Redmayne at any of the aforementioned ceremonies, largely because his "American Sniper" was released so late in the game. The film is obviously surging in terms of box office and awards buzz (though also in terms of controversy). If Keaton and Redmayne cancel each other out, it's Cooper who benefits. Which is still a tall order: He'd notably follow Marcia Gay Harden as only the second person ever to win an Oscar without a Golden Globe, SAG or Critics Choice Award nomination. Either way: Toughest acting call of the night, by far (we're going with Redmayne, but it's our least confident call of them all).
Check out our predictions in other categories here.
Steve Carell, "Foxcatcher"
Bradley Cooper, "American Sniper"
Benedict Cumberbatch, "The Imitation Game"
Michael Keaton, "Birdman"
Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything"
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything"
Could Win: Bradley Cooper, "American Sniper" or Michael Keaton, "Birdman"
Should Win: Michael Keaton, "Birdman"
Shoulda Been Here: Jake Gyllenhaal, "Nightcrawler"
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