• Was It an Upset? Kind of. Most experts believed "Modern Family's" five-year win streak would end, but disagreed over whether "Veep," "Transparent" or "Louie" would defeat it.
• Fun Fact: The last time the highest-rated show nominated won was in 2012 ("Modern Family"). The last time the lowest-rated show won was most likely in 2004, when "Arrested Development" took home the prize over "Everybody Loves Raymond" and "Will and Grace." (though lack of ratings for certain HBO programs makes it hard to tell for sure).
Get ready to see a few new faces in the top comedy category this year. Two of the seven nominees from 2015 aren't eligible anymore, as "Parks and Recreation" ended its run and "Louie" didn't air a new season in the 2015-16 season. That means at least two slots will be filled by new shows and — considering how great a year it's been for half-hour TV — there could be even more.
"Master of None" seems like the safest bet among new shows likely to land a nod, as Aziz Ansari and Alan Yang's Netflix comedy debuted to rave reviews and immediately tapped into the cultural zeitgeist. Netflix could also be pushing its Judd Apatow-backed "Love," but with "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt" already in the mix, the streaming giant may not want to spread itself thin by fronting too many horses. That could leave room for new shows like "The Grinder" — which Fox will certainly be pushing pretty hard, after "Brooklyn Nine-Nine" has failed in this category twice before — "Ash vs. Evil Dead," which could face an uphill battle as a horror comedy, "Casual" — Hulu's best shot at a nod here — "Baskets," the Zach Galifianakis and Louis C.K. co-created comedy which could try to take over for "Louie" in its off year, and, last but not least, "Red Oaks," whose stars and behind-the-camera talent (including David Gordon Green directing and Steven Soderbergh producing) could give it an edge over another beloved Amazon comedy, "Catastrophe."
Speaking of Amazon, among the returning nominees "Transparent," "Modern Family" and "Veep" all appear to be on solid ground, with "Silicon Valley" remaining a somewhat inexplicable favorite after back-to-back Best Comedy nominees with no acting nods. (It performs well in the technical categories, including writing and directing, but it's odd to see a comedy consistently land in the top spot without competing actors in the mix.) But there are a massive amount of second or third year shows hoping to break into the race based on past success ("Girls," "The Big Bang Theory") or stellar second seasons ("Black-ish," "You're the Worst," "Fresh Off the Boat," "Togetherness" and "Mozart in the Jungle").
Below are Indiewire TV Critic Ben Travers' predictions for Outstanding Comedy Series, which will be updated throughout the awards season. Make sure to keep checking Indiewire for all the latest buzz and highlights from the 2016 race, and read the rest of the predictions in all the categories, as well.
4. "Master of None"
5. "Modern Family"
6. "Silicon Valley"
7. "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
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