Sarah Paulson as Marcia Clark.
Ray Mickshaw/FX Sarah Paulson as Marcia Clark.
Quick Hits
• Last Year's Winner: Frances McDormand, "Olive Kitteridge"
• Was It an Upset? No
• Still Eligible? No
• Hot Streak: Other than citing "American Horror Story's" four straight years of nods (with one win for Jessica Lange in 2014), there isn't much of a streak to speak of. So, instead, let's just remember when Meryl Streep won for her landmark performance in "Angels in America" (and hope someone, someday — even if it's Meryl herself — can ascend to such heights again).

• Fun Fact: None other than Helen Mirren has the most nominations (10!) and wins (4!) in this category. 

In our new era of anthology series, the acting categories for Outstanding Limited Series or a Movie no longer get complete makeovers every year. Yet even though a few other categories will see plenty of old faces, the group of Lead Actress contenders will likely be all but one newbie. The only person nominated from last year who can get back in the game for 2016 is Felicity Huffman, a returning player for the second season of "American Crime."

To avoid competing against herself, expect to see Sarah Paulson up for Lead Actress in "American Crime Story" and supporting actress for "American Horror Story." Technically, she could qualify as supporting for both, but the much-loved perennial nominee should certainly try for a dual nod after earning one spot for four consecutive years — and she's got a much larger (and better) part in "The People v. O.J. Simpson" than "Hotel."


READ MORE: Watch: Kerry Washington Challenges D.C. in HBO's Powerful 'Confirmation' Trailer

Other limited series contenders include Kirsten Dunst, who was out-of-this-world great on the sci-fi-tinged "Fargo" Season 2, and Sarah Hay, who broke out in "Flesh and Bone" on Starz; and Lady Gaga taking over for Jessica Lange in this category as "American Horror Story's" representative. A big contender will be "Dreamgirls" actress Anika Noni Rose, who landed the plum part of Kizzy in the "Roots" remake and is bound to build buzz for her roles in the hotly-anticipated miniseries. But the real challengers come from the movie half of this category's equation. "Confirmation" star Kerry Washington looks to move from the nominees' section to the winners circle after two nods for "Scandal," and the HBO movie she stars in promises to make her a formidable opponent to anyone in this category. Her biggest competition might be Audra McDonald, who reprises her acclaimed Broadway performance as Billie Holiday to the small screen in HBO's "Lady Day at Emerson's Bar & Grill."

Below are Indiewire TV Critic Ben Travers' predictions for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie, which will be updated throughout the awards season. Make sure to keep checking Indiewire for all the latest buzz and highlights from the 2016 race, and read the rest of the predictions in all the categories, as well.

Predicted Nominees: 
1. Sarah Paulson, "The People v. O.J. Simpson"
2. Kerry Washington, "Confirmation"
3. Kirsten Dunst, "Fargo"
4. Felicity Huffman, "American Crime"
5. Akina Noni Rose, "Roots"
6. Audra McDonald, "Lady Day at Emerson's Bar & Grille"

Spoiler: Lady Gaga, "American Horror Story: Hotel"
In a Perfect World: Ilana Glazer, "Time Traveling Bong"

READ MORE: Kirsten Dunst on Picking TV Over Movies, and How She Wishes She'd Killed More People in 'Fargo' Season 2