The Big Short
"The Big Short"

READ MORE: Indiewire Awards Season Spotlight 

Much more competitive than the original screenplay category, the adapted race increasingly seems to be up in the air now. Aaron Sorkin won the Golden Globe, but he's not even nominated, which makes the race even more exciting.

For now, this seems like close race between "The Big Short" and "The Martian," both of which have earned vast acclaim for their scripts.

Below is Anne Thompson's take on how things might shake down in the race for best adapted screenplay. Check out Thompson on Hollywood's Oscar predictions page for more awards season analysis. Click here for more category breakdowns on Indiewire.

Nominees:
Emma Donoghue ("Room")
Drew Goddard ("The Martian")
Nick Hornby ("Brooklyn")

Adam McKay and Charles Randolph ("The Big Short")
Phyllis Nagy ("Carol")


Predicted Winner: "The Big Short"
Potential Spoiler: "The Martian"

WINNER: "The Big Short"

For more insight into the 2016 awards season, visit the Indiewire Awards Season Spotlight homepage here.